This article aims to study if merge event can make abnormal return by setting up a merge-arbitrage investment portfolio; and if this abnormal return to be affected by taking consideration of related costs. During the period of merge event, the results from both CAPM model and Fama-French model show that the abnormal return from the merge-arbitrage investment portfolio is quite significant if not considering the direct and indirect costs; but the return will become insignificant if considering all the costs. However, there is no co-relation between merge-arbitrage investment portfolio and stock market investment portfolio, no matter if we have taken the costs into consideration or not. The relationship between the two investments is in linear regression. Furthermore, although size and market-to-book ratio are positively and negatively, respectively, related to the portfolio return, these relationships are statistically insignificant.

Initial public offerings (IPOs), especially common stock IPOs have drawn a lot of investors' and researchers' attentions for their short-run return rocketing phenomenon. Numerous articles focused on examining IPOs' short- and long-run return structures in various methods and conclusions have been published. Ibbotson (1975), Ibbotson, Sindelar, and Ritter (1988) and Loughran, Ritter, and Rydqvist (1994) focused on examining whether IPOs did possess initial abnormal return, while Ritter (1991), Brav and Gompers (1997) and Eckbo and Norli (2005) contributed their efforts on explaining IPOs' long-run return structures. This thesis extended Eckbo and Norli's (2005) study. I applied their model in examining Taiwan OTC IPOs' long-run (5 years) return structures. The samples are dated from 1991 to 2002, a total of 261 IPOs (financial service companies excluded) are examined. I formed a portfolio which buys each IPO with offering prices in the first day of trading and sells them with closing prices on the trading day 5 years later. The equal-weighted returns are calculated and served as the daily raw return of the portfolio. I used the Fama-French three factor model (size, book-to-market, RMRf) as the foundation, adding 2 factors (liquidity and leverage ratio) to the model and applying it to the samples. The outcomes are indicating that if the initial return was excluded and the portfolio return was calculated as the raw return minus risk-free return, the three-factor model displayed statistically significant factor loadings on size and RMRf factors while the intercept is significant as well. After adding liquidity and leverage ratio factors, all the factors in the model are significantly different from zero. The adjusted R-square values of the three- and five-factor models are 24.68% and 28.09%, respectively.

Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2007.

Abstract The study attempts to filter the public trading data, based on TESC and TEJ to get the proxy variable of insiders¡¦ trading. We estimate the proxy variable of insider trading according to the Security and Exchange Act. The correlation between the daily return and time-series proxy variables are significant and the proxy variable is a factor for the return. The paces of information releasing are different by capital levels. When the capital is under 40 billion, the information will be released within 4 days. The portfolio of the proxy variable in 4 factors Fama and French model is only effective in small capital levels. In the aspect of the price levels, the time series proxy variables are significant but the effects are different among the levels of price. The portfolio of the proxy variable in 4 factors Fama and French model is only effective in the lower price levels

This thesis investigates whether the estimation of the cost of equity (or the expected return) in the Swedish market should incorporate an adjustment for a company’s size. This is what is commonly known as the size-effect, first presented by Banz (1980) and has later been a part of models for estimating cost of equity, such as Fama & French’s three factor model (1992). The Fama & French model was developed based on empirical research. Since the model was developed, the research on the size-effect has been divided and today there are empirical studies contradicting its existence. Arguments against the size-effect are to some extent supported by the fact that there is no solid theoretical explanation for it. It seems however that market participants in the Swedish markets do adjust for the size.A limitation of the Fama & French model is that market data is required for the estimation. Our starting point is to investigate if there is a presence of the size-effect in the Swedish markets using a modified version Fama & French model. In our modified model a proxy for the market value of the firm has been introduced, namely the firms turnover. This is motivated by the fact data regarding a company’s turnover is available for private firms as well. In the case that size-effect is observable using the turnover as a proxy this would allow to extend the model to estimate the cost of equity for private firms. In the case where a consistent estimated marginal effect of the turnover is observed, our model could be used to estimate cost of equity with reasonable precision. Historical data on Swedish companies from each of the OMX Large, Mid & Small cap lists is used in a regression setting to investigate if any statistical significant results can be observed on whether the logarithm of the turnover affects the expected return.Our results indicate that the marginal effect of the turnover is positive, contradicting previous research and economic intuition that size of a company should be negatively correlated (or uncorrelated) with the expected return. By investigating the internal and external validity of the results, comparison to previous research and assessing data quality, we conclude that errors originating from these factors are not plausible to cause the unintuitive results. We therefore conclude that the use of turnover as a proxy for market value is not viable, which may be attributed to the fundamental relationship between the turnover and cost of equity in valuation formulas. Conclusively we cannot draw any further conclusions regarding presence of size-effect in the Swedish equity markets and discard the possibility of using our modified model for estimating cost of equity for private firms.

This project describes the underlying principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and multi-factor models in detail. It also explores the process of constructing optimal portfolios using Modern Portfolio Theory, as well as estimates the expected return and covariance matrix of assets using the CAPM and multi-factor models. Finally, the project applies these models in real markets to analyze our portfolios and compare their performances.

Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka om fusioner och förvärv genomförda av svenska börsnoterade företag mellan år 1990 och år 2005 har skapat något värde för det köpande företagets aktieägare. För att besvara syftet har en kvantitativ studie i form av en eventstudie gjorts, där det köpande företagets faktiska avkastning tre år efter transaktionstillfället har jämförts med en beräknad förväntad avkastning utifrån Fama och Frenchs trefaktormodell. Resultatet tyder på att fusioner och förvärv faktiskt har skapat värde för det köpande företagets aktieägare på lång sikt, men detta kan inte fastställas statistiskt.

This diploma thesis is based on the theory of behavioral attention and examines the effect of the search for negative words in conjunction with the name of the bank on the price and on the yield of the shares of these banks. As a sample, 12 global, publicly traded and significant banks were selected. In this work, the behavioral attention is identified as the level of search on Google. The panel regression with random effects is used in the work, and Bayesian Model Averaging is used to identify suitable variables. The data proves the effect of negative behavioral attention, when an increased level of attention diminishes yield and share price. The results are then subjected to a robustness analysis where the impact of behavioral attention is examined before, during, and after the financial crisis. Furthermore, the effect of regulation and the level of behavioral attention itself is examined. The diploma thesis corresponds to the knowledge of behavioral economics and confirms a certain irrational behavior of investors on the market.

O estudo analisa a influência dos boatos na vitória de César sobre Pompeu, ocorrida nas guerras civis de 49 e 48 a.C. Apesar do breve período de disputas, tem como recorte temporal os anos de 54 a 48 a.C., pois foi aí que apareceram os primeiros boatos das lutas entre os generais. Para tanto, toma como fontes obras de gêneros literários variados, situadas entre os séculos I a.C. e IV d.C. Dentro de tal corpus, destacam-se os Comentários sobre as Guerras Civis, redigidos por César, as Cartas a Ático e as Cartas aos Amigos, escritas por Cícero, e a Farsália, composta por Lucano. O referencial teórico abrange os conceitos de boato, janelas de oportunidades, ação coletiva e memória social. O objetivo geral é compreender a relação entre uma stasis, a propagação de boatos e a mobilização dos grupos. Seguem-no os objetivos específicos, por meio dos quais o estudo analisa de que modo as ações coletivas oportunizavam vantagens ou desvantagens militares, e também precisa como a formação de alianças tornou César o favorito ao sucesso. Considera que os boatos foram decisivos para o triunfo cesariano, pois contribuíram para a conquista de apoio, a rendição de cidades e a aquisição de recursos. / This work analyses the influence of rumours concerning the victory of Caesar over Pompey during the civil wars in 49 and 48 BC. Despite the brief period of disputes, this study considers a time frame that encompasses the years from 54 to 48 BC, for it was during this period that appeared the first rumours about the dispute between these generals. For this end, the study takes as sources works of varied literary genres from the 1st Century BC to the 4th Century AD. Within such a corpus, we highlight the Commentaries on the Civil War, written by Caesar, the Letters to Atticus and the Letters to Friends, authored by Cicero, and the Pharsalia, written by Lucan. The theoretical references embrace the concepts of rumour, windows of opportunity, collective action and social memory. The general purpose of this research is to understand the relation between a stasis, rumour spread and the mobilization of groups. The specific objectives concern the understanding of how the collective actions propitiated military advantages and disadvantages; also they specify how the formation of alliances made Caesar the favourite to succeed. It is considered that the rumours were decisive for the triumph of Caesar, due to their contribution regarding the obtainment of support, the surrender of cities and the acquisition of resources.

<p>Pengarna rullar allt snabbare inom fotbollen och från Southampton säljs de båda tonåringarna Theo Walcott och Gareth Bale för £5 miljoner styck. Båda de händelserna följdes av ett kursfall för Southamptons aktie vilket skulle kunna tolkas som att marknaden inte tyckte det var goda nyheter. Detta leder oss till vår problemformulering:</p><p>Hur påverkas börsnoterade fotbollsklubbars aktiekurser vid spelarövergångar?</p><p>Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka om det finns en avvikande avkastning i samband med en spelarövergång. Vi undersöker även om det är någon skillnad mellan spelarköp och spelarförsäljningar. Detta gör vi genom en event-studie med 70 övergångar där vi jämför avkastningen från klubbarnas aktier med förväntad avkastning. Vi använder oss av indexet FTSE100 för att få fram den förväntade avkastningen. Vi använder oss av främst Famas och Nofsingers teorier i vår teoretiska referensram. Fama beskriver den effektiva marknaden medan Nofsingers teori går in på olika typer av nyheter och deras påverkan av aktiekursen. Vi har även sett till Peterson som studerat hur rykten påverkar aktiekurser.</p><p>Vi finner i våra statistiska test att spelarövergångar påverkar aktiekursen negativt på dagen då nyheten tillkännages. Vi kan dock se att det endast är spelarköp som har en signifikant avvikande avkastning på händelsedagen. I gruppen spelarförsäljningar ser vi inga resultat eller mönster som går att statistiskt säkerställa. Det bör även klargöras att det endast är en genomsnittlig avvikande avkastning på 0,75 procent vid spelarförsäljningar och det är inte en speciellt avvikande.</p>