Syfte: Undersökningens syftet är att mäta huruvida det går att få ut en överavkastning av aktier som väljs in i (respektive ut ur) OMX Stockholm Benchmark (OMXSB), som följd av att ett index ändrar sin komposition. Delsyftet är att undersöka om det går att se en signifikant ökning av handelsvolymen i anslutning till ändringsdagen. Metod: Studien tillämpar en eventstudie som undersökningsmetod av kvantitativ karaktär. Studien undersöker indexet OMXSB och innefattade totalt 111 stycken ingående och utgående aktier fördelat på 10 tillfällen. Två eventfönster har konstruerats; ett kring annonseringsdagen och ett kring ändringsdagen. Den procentuella handelsvolymen har mätts över eventfönstret kring ändringsdagen. Resultat: Den genomsnittliga kumulerade överavkastningen för eventfönstret vid annonseringsdagen uppgick till 1,02 % (-6 %) för de aktier som valdes in (ut). Det motsvarande resultatet 2,55 % (-0,41 %) framkom i eventfönstret för ändringsdagen. Handelsvolymen uppnådde i båda fallen en signifikant ökning dagen innan ändringen genomfördes. Slutsatser: Resultatet visade en signifikant överavkastning för aktier som valdes in (ut) i eventfönstret kring ändringsdagen (annonseringsdagen). Den signifikanta skillnaden av handelsvolymen tyder på att indexerarna handlar aktierna dagen innan ändringen genomförs. För aktier som väljs in gick det att se ett pristryck där priset höjdes fram till dagen innan ändringen genomfördes, som sedan återgick. Resultaten kan ha påverkats av externa faktorer vilket kan ha lett till en missvisande bild av den undersökta effekten. / Purpose: The study aims to investigate whether it is possible to get an abnormal return of stocks added to (or deleted from) the OMX Stockholm Benchmark index (OMXSB), as a result of a changes of the index composition. A subsidiary aim of the study is to investigate whether it is possible to see a significant increase in trading volume in close to the change day. Methodology: The study applies an event study as method of investigation of a quantitative character. The study examines the OMXSB and include a total of 111 added and deleted stocks distributed on 10 occasions. Two event windows have been designed: one around announcement day and one around change day. The percentage change of trading volume has been measured over the event window around the change day. Results: The average cumulative abnormal return for the event window around announcement day reached 1.02% (-6%) for the added (deleted) shares. Corresponding results of 2.55% (-0.41%) emerged in event window for change day. In both cases the trading volume reached a significant increase the day before the change was implemented. Conclusions: The results showed a significant abnormal return for stocks that were added (deleted) in the event window around the change day (announcement day). Trade volume suggests that index funds trade shares the day before the change day. For the added shares a price pressure could be identified up to the day before change day. The results may have been influenced by external factors which may have lead to a misleading picture of the investigated effect.

Submitted by Mila Pires (mila.pires@itau-unibanco.com.br) on 2013-02-20T18:57:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão_escrita_base_dados_estudos_anteriores_v12.pdf: 455595 bytes, checksum: f92da58e5624182947033d01042c45bf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-02-20T19:07:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão_escrita_base_dados_estudos_anteriores_v12.pdf: 455595 bytes, checksum: f92da58e5624182947033d01042c45bf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-20T19:10:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão_escrita_base_dados_estudos_anteriores_v12.pdf: 455595 bytes, checksum: f92da58e5624182947033d01042c45bf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-02-04 / O objetivo deste trabalho foi testar a presença de dois efeitos no mercado acionário brasileiro: disponibilidade e momento, amplamente estudados para o mercado norte-americano em publicações anteriores. Utilizando uma amostra de 70 empresas foram analisadas séries temporais de retornos mensais do período de ago/2006 a jan/2011, cujos resultados não foram suficientes para rejeitar a hipótese de não eficiência do mercado brasileiro. No teste do efeito disponibilidade, apenas uma das quatro estratégias testadas com a utilização do indicador de retorno do mês anterior da ação gerou retornos positivos (2,27% ao mês), e os indicadores de volume anormal e 'presença na mídia' geraram retornos negativos nas estratégias testadas. No caso do efeito momento, das 16 estratégias estudadas, a única que proporcionou retorno positivo estatisticamente significativo foi a que considerou o período de três meses de formação e manutenção das carteiras (2,01% ao mês). / The objective of this study was to test the presence of two effects in the Brazilian stock market: availability and momentum, widely studied for the American market in previous publications. Using a sample of 70 companies a time series of data returns from Aug/2006 to Jan/2011 was analyzed and the results were not sufficient to reject the hypothesis of an efficient market. In the availability effect test, only one of the four strategies tested using the return of the preceding month indicator had a positive return (2,27% p.m), whilst abnormal volume and "media presence" indicators generated negative returns. In the momentum effect test, out of the 16 studied strategies, the only statistically significant positive return was with portfolio considering three months for the formation and maintenance periods (2,01% p.m).

This master thesis, Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices deals with macroeconomic variables that drive the price of gold. This paper is divided into three chapters: Possible investment forms in gold, Fundamental analysis of commodities, and lastly Analysis of impact of strong economies and their influence on gold prices. In the first chapter, emphasis is put on the Efficient Market Theory that plays an important role in success or failure of investment strategies such as technical and fundamental analysis. The second chapter illustrates the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and how it is used as a tool to predict the movement of gold prices. This chapter also discusses other large drivers effecting gold prices such as financial and geopolitical stability, inflation, interest rates, Central Banking operations, the value of the US dollar, and other influences. The final chapter analyzes the impact of announced fundamental news in the United States, China, and Europe on the price of gold. The empirical part of this paper analysis the impact of announced fundamental news in United States, China and Europe on gold prices. With the use of the linear regression method, we can test whether the macroeconomic variables significantly influence the return on gold investments immediately after their announcement, or over long periods of time. If this new public data was calculated into gold prices directly, investors would not be able to achieve additional returns by using fundamental analysis. The major findings are summed up at the end of the last chapter.

MCom / Department of Accountany / The relationship between the Equity Market Risk Premium (MRP) and macroeconomic variables has been a subject of extensive discussion in the finance literature. The MRP is a central component of the main asset pricing models which are used to estimate the cost of equity which is mainly used in investment appraisal, performance measurement and valuation of equity assets. Past studies have identified inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate and political risk as the key macroeconomic variables that determine the size of the MRP. The test of the impact of these variables on the MRP have however been based mainly on data from developed countries and a few emerging countries. To the researcher’s knowledge, there are no studies that have investigated the impact of these macroeconomic variables on the MRP in South Africa. It is necessary to test the impact of these variables in the context of South Africa as these variables vary across countries. Using time series secondary data that was obtained from the SARB database, JSE database and World Bank database for the period 2002 to 2017, this study investigated the impact of these variables on the MRP in South Africa. A total of 192 observations per series of the inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, political risk, JSE-ALSI and 91-days Treasury bill was used in the study. The data used were tested for possible misspecification errors that could arise from using a time series secondary data and the regression model was fitted using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. The misspecification tests and models were both implemented on STATA 15 software. The results shows that inflation rate, interest rate and foreign exchange rate have a negative impact on the MRP whilst political risk has a positive impact on the MRP. Furthermore, the result shows that the inflation rate is the only variable amongst other variable tested that has a significant influence on the MRP for the study period. The study, therefore, concludes that inflation rate has the highest impact on the MRP in the context of South Africa. The study recommends that inflation rate should be monitored and kept within its target of 3-6% amongst other variables tested in order to increase investors’ confidence in the security market and also foster economic growth. The main limitations to the study were the limited data sources and insufficient funds. / NRF

The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets, of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes (8-S) Option Pricing Model. The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved. The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African conditions. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets, of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes (8-S) Option Pricing Model. The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved. The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African conditions. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

This study tests for the market efficiency of the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) after the year 2000 to determine the effect of technological advancements on market efficiency. Data that is used is the NSE 20 share index over the period 2001 to 2015; and the NSE All Share Index (NSE ASI) from its initiation during 2008 to 2015. We cannot accept the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the NSE using the serial correlation test, the unit root tests and the runs test. However, we can accept the EMH for the more robust variance ratio test. Overall, the results of the market efficiency are mixed. The most significant finding is that the efficiency of the NSE has increased since the year 2000 which suggests that advancements in technology have contributed to the increase in the market efficiency of the NSE. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Department of Statistics / MSc (Statistics) / The ripple e ect of a stock market crash due to extremal dependence is a global issue with key attention and it is at the core of all modelling e orts in risk management. Two methods of extreme value theory (EVT) were used in this study to model equity risk and extremal dependence in the tails of stock market indices from four African emerging markets: South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Egypt. The rst is the \bivariate-threshold-excess model" and the second is the \point process approach". With regards to the univariate analysis, the rst nding in the study shows in descending hierarchy that volatility with persistence is highest in the South African market, followed by Egyptian market, then Nigerian market and lastly, the Kenyan equity market. In terms of risk hierarchy, the Egyptian EGX 30 market is the most risk-prone, followed by the South African JSE-ALSI market, then the Nigerian NIGALSH market and the least risky is the Kenyan NSE 20 market. It is therefore concluded that risk is not a brainchild of volatility in these markets. For the bivariate modelling, the extremal dependence ndings indicate that the African continent regional equity markets present a huge investment platform for investors and traders, and o er tremendous opportunity for portfolio diversi cation and investment synergies between markets. These synergistic opportunities are due to the markets being asymptotic (extremal) independent or (very) weak asymptotic dependent and negatively dependent. This outcome is consistent with the ndings of Alagidede (2008) who analysed these same markets using co-integration analysis. The bivariate-threshold-excess and point process models are appropriate for modelling the markets' risks. For modelling the extremal dependence however, given the same marginal threshold quantile, the point process has more access to the extreme observations due to its wider sphere of coverage than the bivariate-threshold-excess model. / NRF