This study aims for knowledge about the most important climate features that affect the temperature and precipitation in the continental area of Central America. Systems such as The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ), The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) components are major contributors to regional climate that strongly interact with the topographical features dividing the Pacific and Caribbean slopes of Central America. Daily data within a 35 year long (1981-2015) time-series of precipitation and temperature for 9 different meteorological stations along both slopes have been investigated to identify their relationship with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Missing data were filled in using rellenaf, a routine function developed at the Center for Geophysical Research of the University of Costa Rica. The function estimates data values with principal components and autoregressive methods. Data show that the Pacific slope is mainly characterized by a remarkable contrast between the dry season and the rainy season. The seasonal variations in precipitation are less important for the Caribbean slope. The annual cycle of temperature (for all of the stations) has small differences in amplitude and is rather stable throughout the year, except at the northernmost stations, Belize and Puerto Barrios, where relatively low temperatures dominate the winter months due to cold air intrusions. The low frequency atmospheric mode ENSO, impacts the regional climate and interacts with the earlier mentioned CLLJ, ITCZ and WHWP. Strong ENSO episodes of El Niño and La Niña were compared with anomalies in temperature, precipitation and winds at 925 hPa (mainly focusing on CLLJ). A contribution of negative (positive) anomalies in precipitation was observed during El Niño (La Niña) events for the Pacific slope. This relationship was not present for the Caribbean slope. No connection between the temperature and ENSO could be revealed. It was also shown that CLLJ is stronger (weaker) in February for La Niña (El Niño) and stronger (weaker) in July for El Niño (La Niña) events. / I syftet att utöka individuell kunskap om de viktigaste klimatsystemen som påverkar temperatur och nederbörd över den tropiska kontinenten Centralamerika, gjordes en studie. Komponenter såsom den karibiska lågaltituds-jeten (CLLJ The Caribbean Low Level Jet), den intertropiska konvergenszonen (ITCZ The Intertropical Convergence Zone) och västra halvklotets varmvattenspool (WHWP The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool) är huvudsakliga system som påverkar det regionala klimatet och dessa interagerar med topografin. I sin tur delar den upp Centralamerika i Stilla havssidan samt Karibiska sidan, två skiljda regioner ur ett meteorologiskt perspektiv. Dygnsdata, för temperatur och nederbörd inom en tidsperiod av 35 år (1981-2015) för 9 olika meteorologiska stationer, har undersökts för att identifiera mönster kopplat till den södra El Niño-oscillationen (ENSO The El Niño Southern Oscillation). Avsaknad data beräknades med rutinfunktionen rellenaf, som har utvecklats av universitetet i Costa Rica - Centret för geofysisk forskning. Funktionen estimerar datavärden utifrån principiella komponenter -och autoregressiv metod. Från den kompletta datan kunde det identifieras att Stilla havssidan är huvudsakligen kännetecknat av en torrperiod och en regnperiod, medan säsongsvariationerna i nederbörd för Karibiska sidan är mindre. Den årliga temperaturcykeln för hela regionen erhåller små skillnader i amplitud, med andra ord är temperaturen mer eller mindre konstant genom årets gång. Med undantag för de mer nordliga stationerna Belize och Puerto Barrios där lägre temperaturer förekommer under norra halvklotets vintermånader som är orsakat av kallfronter. ENSO är ett lågfrekvent atmosfäriskt system som har påverkan på det regionala klimatet genom att interagera med de tidigare nämna CLLJ, ITCZ and WHWP. De starka faserna El Niño och La Niña observerades och jämfördes med anomalier för temperatur, nederbörd och vindfält på 925 hPa nivå (huvudsakligen fokus på CLLJ). En majoritet av negativa (positiva) anomalier för nederbörd kunde observeras under El Niño (La Niña) fenomen för Stilla havssidan. Dock fanns inte denna relation för den Karibiska sidan. Det fanns heller ingen koppling mellan temperatur och ENSO. Det kunde även ses att CLLJ är starkare (svagare) i februari för la niña (el niño) och starkare (svagare) i juli för el niño (la niña).

La investigación muestra el impacto de las precipitaciones intensas registradas en la vía férrea del tramo Lima – La Oroya durante la ocurrencia del fenómeno El Niño Costero 2017. Se presentan los daños generados y la influencia que tuvo este acontecimiento climático sobre la empresa Ferrocarril Central Andino S.A, tomando como muestra las precipitaciones ocurridas en enero, febrero y marzo del año 2017. El objeto de investigación está ubicado entre Lima – La Oroya; abarcando la primera, segunda y tercera subdivisión del sector ferroviario, considerando como principal peligro a las precipitaciones intensas, pues, la cercanía de la zona de estudio con la Cordillera de Los Andes hace que se encuentre predispuesta a lluvias aun sin la presencia de algún fenómeno climático. Esta investigación permite identificar el nivel de peligro y vulnerabilidad, teniendo como base la metodología obtenida del Manual básico para la estimación del Riesgo, planteado por Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil. Se concluye que los daños generados en la vía férrea a causa de las precipitaciones intensas, generaron la paralización de los servicios del Ferrocarril Central Andino S.A, ocasionado por la pérdida y deterioro de estructura, y la contaminación de varios PK a lo largo del tramo Lima – La Oroya.

Submitted by Inácio de Oliveira Lima Neto (inacio.neto@inpa.gov.br) on 2016-08-22T14:07:00Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação_JVS.pdf: 10557543 bytes, checksum: 965ce3a5139f052e5de7609f52579842 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-22T14:07:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação_JVS.pdf: 10557543 bytes, checksum: 965ce3a5139f052e5de7609f52579842 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-11-26 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / The spatial evolution of two different El Niños types and its impacts on South America (SA) were evaluated using observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) and SST derived from historical and future simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The two El Niño types analyzed in this study show distinct patterns, one located in the central tropical Pacific, called CP, and other in the east-tropical Pacific, called EP. For historical simulations, the HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5 and MPI models were used and for the future simulation, only CNRM-CM5. The results confirm that the events selection method is consistent with many others available in the literature. Regarding the simulations, the CNRM-CM5 model provided better representation of the SST anomaly pattern of the EP and CP events. Regarding the impact on the SA precipitation, the show that during El Niño EP the observed anomaly pattern is similar to the expected for canonical El Niño, with above normal precipitation in southeastern and southern of SA and reduced precipitation in large part of northern and northeastern of SA during DJF. The impact of CP events on the South America precipitation are different from the El Niño EP. Overall, for the EP El Niño mature phase (DJF), the CNRM and HadGEM models captured the dipole pattern for SA precipitation, with positive (negative) rainfall anomalies in the southern and southeast (north and northwest ) parts of SA. However, both caused decrease in rainfall over Northeast Brazil. The MPI model represented the rain reduction on the northern portion, but was not sensitive to increased (decreased) precipitation in the southern/southeastern (northwest) region of SA. Regarding the CP El Nino for same period, the three models represented the increase rainfall in Southern SA and reduction in northern and northwestern SA. However, HadGEM and MPI models reduced rainfall on Brazilian Northeast in contrast to the observed. For future simulation the results with the CNRM model, in general it can be said that the behavior of SST anomaly pattern in relation to historical, presents slight difference in frequency and intensity of events for both El Niño types, wherein the weakened EP SST anomaly pattern type, especially in the mature phase (DJF (+1)) and the CP type particularly early in the evolution of phenomenon was a slight enhancement, but the lifetime of such events (CP) is smaller in the future in relation to historical, which carries a decay of the ATSM DJF and MAM period. / A evolução espacial de dois tipos diferentes de El Niños, utilizando dados observados de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) reconstruída (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature - ERSST) e TSM oriundas de simulações históricas e futuras do CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) e seus impactos sobre a Amé- rica do Sul (AS) foram avaliadas. Os dois tipos de El Niño abordados nesse trabalho, apresentam características espaciais distintas, sendo um localizado na porção central do Pacífico tropical, denominado de CP e outro posicionado na porção leste-central do Pací- fico tropical, denominado de EP. Para as simulações históricas foram utilizados os modelos HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5 e MPI-EMS-LR e para a futura somente o CNRM-CM5. Os resultados mostraram que o método para a seleção dos eventos é coerente com diversos outros existentes na literatura. Em relação as simulações, o modelo CNRM-CM5 foi o que melhor representou as características espaciais de ATSM dos eventos EP e CP. A respeito dos impactos na precipitação sobre a AS, pode-se dizer que durante os anos El Niño EP o padrão de anomalia observada é similar ao padrão esperado para anos de El Niño canônico, com precipitação acima da normal no sudeste/sul da América do Sul e abaixo da normal em grande parte do norte/nordeste da América do Sul durante DJF. Já para os eventos CP, os impactos da precipitação sobre AS estão associados a redução da precipitação em quase toda a AS tropical durante o verão (DJF). De modo geral, para a fase madura do El Niño EP (DJF), os modelos CNRM e HadGEM capturaram o regime de dipolo para a precipitação na AS, gerando anomalias positivas (negativas) de chuva sobre a porção sul e sudeste (norte e noroeste) da AS. Entretanto, ambos reduziram a precipitação sobre o Nordeste Brasileiro. O modelo MPI representou a redução de chuva sobre a porção norte, porém não foi sensível aos padrões de aumento (diminuição) de chuva na região sul e sudeste (região noroeste) da AS. Em relação ao El Niño CP para esse mesmo trimestre, os três modelos representaram o aumento de precipitação na região sul da AS e redução sobre as regiões norte e noroeste da AS. Entretanto, os modelos HadGEM e MPI, contrário ao observado, reduziram o índice pluviométrico sobre o Nor- deste Brasileiro. Para simulação futura considerando o modelo CNRM, de modo geral pode-se dizer que o comportamento das ATSM em relação ao histórico, apresenta ligeira diferença na frequência dos eventos e a intensidade dos eventos para os dois tipos de El Niños, sendo que as ATSM enfraqueceram para o tipo EP, principalmente na fase madura (DJF(+1)) e para o tipo CP sobretudo no início da evolução do fenômeno ocorreu uma ligeira intensificação, porém o tempo de vida desses eventos (CP) no futuro é menor em relação ao histórico, o que acarreta um decaimento das ATSM no período de DJF e MAM.

This Thesis was devoted to the study of the coupled system composed by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Annual Cycle. More precisely, the work was focused on two main problems: 1. How to separate both oscillations into an affordable model for understanding the behaviour of the whole system. 2. How to model the system in order to achieve a better understanding of the interaction, as well as to predict future states of the system. We focused our efforts in the Sea Surface Temperature equations, considering that atmospheric effects were secondary to the ocean dynamics. The results found may be summarised as follows: 1. Linear methods are not suitable for characterising the dimensionality of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Therefore they do not help to separate the oscillations by themselves. Instead, nonlinear methods of dimensionality reduction are proven to be better in defining a lower limit for the dimensionality of the system as well as in explaining the statistical results in a more physical way [1]. In particular, Isomap, a nonlinear modification of Multidimensional Scaling methods, provides a physically appealing method of decomposing the data, as it substitutes the euclidean distances in the manifold by an approximation of the geodesic distances. We expect that this method could be successfully applied to other oscillatory extended systems and, in particular, to meteorological systems. 2. A three dimensional dynamical system could be modeled, using a backfitting algorithm, for describing the dynamics of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We observed that, although there were few data points available, we could predict future behaviours of the coupled ENSO-Annual Cycle system with an accuracy of less than six months, although the constructed system presented several drawbacks: few data points to input in the backfitting algorithm, untrained model, lack of forcing with external data and simplification using a close system. Anyway, ensemble prediction techniques showed that the prediction skills of the three dimensional time series were as good as those found in much more complex models. This suggests that the climatological system in the tropics is mainly explained by ocean dynamics, while the atmosphere plays a secondary role in the physics of the process. Relevant predictions for short lead times can be made using a low dimensional system, despite its simplicity. The analysis of the SST data suggests that nonlinear interaction between the oscillations is small, and that noise plays a secondary role in the fundamental dynamics of the oscillations [2]. A global view of the work shows a general procedure to face modeling of climatological systems. First, we should find a suitable method of either linear or nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Then, low dimensional time series could be extracted out of the method applied. Finally, a low dimensional model could be found using a backfitting algorithm in order to predict future states of the system. / Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es das Verhalten der Temperatur des Meers im tropischen Pazifischen Ozean vorherzusagen. In diesem Gebiet der Welt finden zwei wichtige Phänomene gleichzeitig statt: der jährliche Zyklus und El Niño. Der jährliche Zyklus kann als Oszillation physikalischer Variablen (z.B. Temperatur, Windgeschwindigkeit, Höhe des Meeresspiegels), welche eine Periode von einem Jahr zeigen, definiert werden. Das bedeutet, dass das Verhalten des Meers und der Atmosphäre alle zwölf Monate ähnlich sind (alle Sommer sind ähnlicher jedes Jahr als Sommer und Winter des selben Jahres). El Niño ist eine irreguläre Oszillation weil sie abwechselnd hohe und tiefe Werte erreicht, aber nicht zu einer festen Zeit, wie der jährliche Zyklus. Stattdessen, kann el Niño in einem Jahr hohe Werte erreichen und dann vier, fünf oder gar sieben Jahre benötigen, um wieder aufzutreten. Es ist dabei zu beachten, dass zwei Phänomene, die im selben Raum stattfinden, sich gegenseitig beeinflussen. Dennoch weiß man sehr wenig darüber, wie genau el Niño den jährlichen Zyklus beeinflusst, und umgekehrt. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, erstens, sich auf die Temperatur des Meers zu fokussieren, um das gesamte System zu analysieren; zweitens, alle Temperaturzeitreihen im tropischen Pazifischen Ozean auf die geringst mögliche Anzahl zu reduzieren, um das System einerseits zu vereinfachen, ohne aber andererseits wesentliche Information zu verlieren. Dieses Vorgehen ähnelt der Analyse einer langen schwingenden Feder, die sich leicht um die Ruhelage bewegt. Obwohl die Feder lang ist, können wir näherungsweise die ganze Feder zeichnen wenn wir die höchsten Punkte zur einen bestimmten Zeitpunkt kennen. Daher, brauchen wir nur einige Punkte der Feder um ihren Zustand zu charakterisieren. Das Hauptproblem in unserem Fall ist die Mindestanzahl von Punkten zu finden, die ausreicht, um beide Phänomene zu beschreiben. Man hat gefunden, dass diese Anzahl drei ist. Nach diesem Teil, war das Ziel vorherzusagen, wie die Temperaturen sich in der Zeit entwickeln werden, wenn man die aktuellen und vergangenen Temperaturen kennt. Man hat beobachtet, dass eine genaue Vorhersage bis zu sechs oder weniger Monate gemacht werden kann, und dass die Temperatur für ein Jahr nicht vorhersagbar ist. Ein wichtiges Resultat ist, dass die Vorhersagen auf kurzen Zeitskalen genauso gut sind, wie die Vorhersagen, welche andere Autoren mit deutlich komplizierteren Methoden erhalten haben. Deswegen ist meine Aussage, dass das gesamte System von jährlichem Zyklus und El Niño mittels einfacherer Methoden als der heute angewandten vorhergesagt werden kann.

Temporal Variation Analysis of the Coastline and Characteristics of Littoral Morphology: The Paita Bay, PeruThe Paita´s Bay is a representative study area where we can find different geographical features. Among them, those with large port infrastructure, population settlements, coastal cliffs, sandy beaches, coastal estuaries, and others.The following research sought to understand the dynamics and changes in the coastline in the period 1946-2007. Taking into account current trends of climate change, the average elevation of sea level and the El Niño event. To analyze these changes in the coastline, the study combined and integrated various methods, such as cartography, remote sensing, statistical data analysis and field surveys, all articulated in a Geographic Information System. The balance erosion-sedimentation obtained shows the dynamism of the coastline. This dynamic is intensified during El Niño events, generating a large sedimentation. / La bahía de Paita es un área representativa donde encontramos diversos ambientes geográficos. Entre ellos, los que presentan grandes infraestructuras portuarias, asentamientos de población, acantilados costeros, playas arenosas, estuarios ribereños, entre otros.En la siguiente investigación se buscó conocer las dinámicas y los cambios en la línea de costa en el periodo 1946-2007, para lo que se tuvo en cuenta las tendencias actuales, especialmente las referidas al cambio climático, la elevación media del nivel del mar y el evento de El Niño.Para analizar estos cambios en la línea de costa se combinaron e integraron distintos métodos, como la cartografía, la teledetección, el análisis estadístico y el levantamiento de información de campo; todos ellos articulados dentro de un sistema de información geográfica. El balance erosión/sedimentación obtenido en los resultados demuestra el gran dinamismo de la línea de costa. Este dinamismo se intensifica durante los eventos de El Niño y genera una gran sedimentación.

Dissertação(mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Programa de Pós–Graduação em Oceanografia Biológica, Instituto de Oceanografia, 2011. / Submitted by Cristiane Gomides (cristiane_gomides@hotmail.com) on 2013-11-18T16:26:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Carla Luciana Teixeira dos Santos.pdf: 553016 bytes, checksum: 84c584008c6c713cd29f554d93509b29 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Angelica Miranda (angelicacdm@gmail.com) on 2013-11-18T19:43:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Carla Luciana Teixeira dos Santos.pdf: 553016 bytes, checksum: 84c584008c6c713cd29f554d93509b29 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-11-18T19:43:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carla Luciana Teixeira dos Santos.pdf: 553016 bytes, checksum: 84c584008c6c713cd29f554d93509b29 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Foi analisada de julho de 2009 a junho de 2010 a variabilidade mensal e sazonal dos organismos incrustantes e perfurantes no estuário da Lagoa dos Patos, utilizando-se como substrato painéis de madeira. O período experimental foi marcado pela ocorrência do fenômeno El Niño (ENSO), tendo a primavera e o verão apresentado valores de salinidade abaixo das médias regionais, o que se refletiu em densidades muito baixas do cirripédio Balanus improvisus, no aparecimento do bivalvo de água doce Limnoperna fortunei, e na ausência de organismos perfurantes. Nestas situações de El Niño os padrões de assentamento e a variabilidade dessas comunidades se dão de maneira diferente da observada em situações de não ocorrência do fenômeno. / Monthly and seasonal variability of both fouling and boring macrobenthic fauna were analyzed from July 2009 to June 2010 inside the Patos Lagoon estuarine region, utilizing pine-wood panels as substrate. Sampling period was marked by the occurrence of an El Niño (ENSO) phenomenon, when spring and summer presented salinity values far below the regional means. This low salinity period determined extremely low densities of the barnacle Balanus improvisus, the occurrence of the fresh water invasive bivalve Limnoperna fortunei and the absence of boring species. Under El Niño situations, patterns of larvae settlement and consequent community variability are very different from that observed in periods of non-occurrence of this stochastic phenomenon.

Recent research indicates that characteristics of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have changed over the past several decades. Here, I examined different flavors of El Niño in the observational record and the recent changes in the character of El Niño events. The fundamental physical processes that drive ENSO were described and the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types or flavors of El Niño were defined. Using metrics from the peer-reviewed literature, I examined several historical data sets to interpret El Niño behavior from 1950-2010. A Monte Carlo Simulation was then applied to output from coupled model simulations to test the statistical significance of recent observations surrounding EP and CP El Niño. Results suggested that EP and CP El Niño had been occurring in a similar fashion over the past 60 years with natural variability, but no significant increase in CP El Niño behavior.

La variabilité interannuelle du Pacifique tropical est aujourd’hui principalement modulée par l’oscillation ElNiño/Oscillation Australe (ENSO). Étant donnés les forts impacts économiques et sanitaires de ce phénomène,la compréhension de son évolution au fil du temps représente un enjeu majeur. Étudier la variabilité ENSOdans différents contextes climatiques permet de comprendre comment celle-ci est reliée à l’état moyen duclimat. Nous utilisons des simulations climatiques de l’Holocène moyen (6 000 ans et 4 000 ans avant nosjours), du dernier maximum glaciaire (21 000 ans avant nos jours) et d’un climat théorique avec le dioxyde decarbone atmosphérique multiplié par quatre, réalisées avec plusieurs modèles numériques. Nous montrons que lavariabilité ENSO a des caractéristiques significativement différentes dans chaque contexte climatique. Les liensentre ces différences et l’état moyen du climat sont nombreux et non linéaires. L’étude des paléoclimats est alorsnécessaire pour comprendre les changements d’ENSO et pouvoir projeter son évolution future. De nombreusesarchives climatiques utilisées pour reconstruire le paléo-ENSO sont situées dans le sud-ouest du Pacifiquetropical, sous l’influence de la zone de convergence du Pacifique sud (SPCZ). Nous montrons que l’impactd’ENSO sur la position de la SPCZ change avec le climat. Or, celui-ci est déterminant pour l’interprétation dusignal issu des archives. Ainsi, les mécanismes reliant ENSO à la SPCZ dans le climat moderne ne peuvent pasêtre directement extrapolés à d’autres contextes climatiques. En combinant l’information des modèles et desarchives, nous pouvons avancer sur la compréhension des changements de variabilité dans le Pacifique sudouestet sur l’interprétation des enregistrements fossiles. En dernier lieu, nous abordons les changements de lavariabilité ENSO avec un nouvel angle de vue, celui de son rôle au sein du bilan énergétique global. D’aprèsles résultats du modèle IPSL-CM5A-LR, la contribution relative des événements El Niño à la redistributionglobale d’énergie est amoindrie à l’Holocène moyen, par rapport au climat moderne. Par ailleurs, la capacitédu Pacifique tropical à exporter l’énergie en moyenne est aussi réduite. Ainsi, la pompe à chaleur globaleconstituée par le Pacifique tropical est moins puissante à l’Holocène moyen, à la fois par la réduction de sacapacité moyenne à exporter que par la contribution amoindrie d’El Niño. Ce résultat suggère qu’il y a unecohérence entre le changement d’ENSO et le rôle de pompe à chaleur joué par le Pacifique tropical. / Interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is mainly modulated by the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Understanding the time evolution of this phenomenon is a major issue, given its strong impacts on health andeconomics. Studying the ENSO variability in different climatic contexts allows us to understand its links to themean-state. We use climatic simulations of the mid-Holocene (6,000 years and 4,000 years before present),the last glacial maximum (21,000 years before present) and a theoretical climate with atmospheric carbondioxyde multiplied by four, computed with several numerical models. We show that ENSO characteristics aresignificantly different in the different climatic contexts. The links between these differences and the climatemean-state are numerous and non linear. Studying paleoclimates is then necessary to understand ENSOchanges and to be able to project its future evolution. Some of the past archives that are used to reconstructthe paleo-ENSO are located in the southwest Pacific, under the influence of the south Pacific convergencezone (SPCZ). We show that the impact of ENSO on the location of the SPCZ changes with the climate.This determines how to interpret archives’ records. Thus, the mechanisms linking ENSO to the SPCZ in themodern climate cannot be directly extrapolated to other climates. By combining information from models andarchives, we are able to improve our understanding on the variability changes in the southwest Pacific. Finally,we address the ENSO change with a new vision, through its role within the global energetic budget. Accordingto the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, the relative contribution of El Niño events to the global energy redistribution isreduced in the mid-Holocene, compared to the modern climate. The mean capacity of the tropical Pacific toexport its energy is reduced. Therefore, the global heat pump represented by the tropical Pacific is less powerfulin the mid-Holocene, both by its reduced capacity to export energy and by the reduced El Niño contribution.This result suggests that there is consistency between the ENSO change and the role of heat pump played bythe tropical Pacific.

published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

La gestión del riesgo ante la presencia de eventos socionaturales en el caso de las lluvias torrenciales ocurridas en Piura en el bienio 1997-1998, ha sido estudiada mediante un análisis organizacional del componente coordinación en el Sistema Nacional de Defensa Civil (SINADECI). Los resultados de las encuestas determinaron la presencia de vacíos en la coordinación en la gestión del riesgo en el SINADECI Piura, por las razones que se señalan: 100 % de los encuestados manifestó que no existió un sistema de prevención de desastres o alternativamente no lo conocieron. Sin embargo, 83,33% manifestó que no conoció como se aplicó y 16,67% lo conoció parcialmente a través de algunas actividades eventuales. Asimismo, las cadenas de coordinación existentes en el SINADECI e INDECI Piura no funcionaron con eficacia, eficiencia y efectividad en prevenir, enfrentar y mitigar, los efectos o impactos de los eventos socio-naturales como el caso estudiado en razón de... El sistema de coordinación entre el SINADECI y el Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil fue parcialmente eficaz, el 83,33% de los encuestados así lo mencionan y el 16,67% no lo conoció e indicaron que el componente coordinación no cumplió los objetivos durante la presencia del FEN. Durante la investigación, se apreció una falta de cultura organizacional debido al exceso de burocracia. El estudio de los instrumentos de gestión reveló que esta burocracia no asumió responsabilidades de equipo, padeciendo la ausencia de liderazgo en la coordinación intersectorial y multinivel. La falta de normas, métodos y procedimientos adecuados ocasionaron vacíos y deficiencias en la gestión del riesgo para prevenir, enfrentar y mitigar las consecuencias de las lluvias torrenciales. vii No existió un flujo-grama de actividades a desarrollar en cada tipo de desastre en el que se incluya la participación de cada uno de los actores del sistema. El 100% de los encuestados manifestó no conocer la existencia de un gabinete de crisis. Solamente el 33,33% de los encuestados indicaron conocer la existencia del plan estratégico del SINADECI y el 66,67% no lo conoció. No existió un programa educativo departamental para la prevención de desastres naturales (83,33% de los encuestados). Las deficiencias de coordinación en la gestión del riesgo de desastres, con consecuencias políticas, económicas y sociales ocasionaron vacíos que correspondieron a: a) Falta de coordinación e intercambio de información entre instituciones científicas, por insuficientes fondos, equipos y redes, b) falta de constitución de los comités de Defensa Civil de la zona, c) falta de protocolos de emergencia, d) equipo operativo insuficiente y no capacitado en la atención de eventos socio-naturales, e) falta de recursos para la elaboración de un diagnóstico post evento y f) los componentes del SINADECI no lograron articular. PALABRAS CLAVES: coordinación, gestión del riesgo, prevención, lluvias torrenciales, socionaturales. / Risk management of socio-natural events in the case of heavy rainfall that occurred in Piura in 1997-1998 has been studied through an organizational analysis of the coordination component of the National System of Civil Defense (SINADECI). The results of the surveys determined the presence of empty in the coordination of risk management at SINADECI Piura, due to the following reasons: 100% of respondents said that there was no disaster prevention system or that, alternatively, they had never heard of one. However, 83.33% claimed they didn't know how this was applied and 16.67% knew about it through some sporadic activities. Also, existing coordination chains in Piura or SINADECI and North INDECI didn't work effectively and efficiently to prevent, cope with and mitigate the effects or impacts of socio-natural events because of ... The system of coordination between SINADECI and the National Institute of Civil Defense was partially effective, 83.33% of respondents claimed so, and 16.67% didn't know about it, indicating that the coordination component didn't accomplish its objectives during the presence of the ‘FEN’. During the investigation, a lack of organization culture was noted due to excessive bureaucracy. The analysis of the management tools revealed that this bureaucracy didn't take a team responsibility, lacking leadership within the multilevel intersectoral coordination. The lack of standards, methods and procedures caused gaps and deficiencies in risk management to prevent, cope with and mitigate the impact of socio-natural events. There weren't activity flowcharts for each type of disaster that included the participation of all system actors. KEYWORDS: coordination, risk management, prevention, torrential rains, socionatural. / Tesis