yes / This paper used different risk management indicators applied to the investment optimization performed by consumers in Distributed Generation (DG). The objective function is the total cost incurred by the consumer including the energy and capacity payments, the savings, and the revenues from the installation of DG, alongside the operation and maintenance (O&M) and investment costs. Probability density function (PDF) was used to model the price volatility in the long-term. The mathematical model uses a two-stage stochastic approach: investment and operational stages. The investment decisions are included in the first stage and which do not change with the scenarios of the uncertainty. The operation variables are in the second stage and, therefore, take different values with every realization. Three risk indicators were used to assess the uncertainty risk: Value-at-Risk (VaR), Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and Expected Value (EV). The results showed the importance of migration from deterministic models to stochastic ones and, most importantly, the understanding of the ramifications of every risk indicator.

abstract: This work presents research on practices in the day-ahead electric energy market, including replication practices and reliability coordinators used by some market operators to demonstrate the impact these practices have on market outcomes. The practice of constraint relaxations similar to those an Independent System Operator (ISO) might perform in day-ahead market models is implemented. The benefits of these practices are well understood by the industry; however, the implications these practices have on market outcomes and system security have not been thoroughly investigated. By solving a day-ahead market model with and without select constraint relaxations and comparing the resulting market outcomes and possible effects on system security, the effect of these constraint relaxation practices is demonstrated. Proposed market solutions are often infeasible because constraint relaxation practices and approximations that are incorporated into market models. Therefore, the dispatch solution must be corrected to ensure its feasibility. The practice of correcting the proposed dispatch solution after the market is solved is known as out-of-market corrections (OMCs), defined as any action an operator takes that modifies a proposed day-ahead dispatch solution to ensure operating and reliability requirements. The way in which OMCs affect market outcomes is illustrated through the use of different corrective procedures. The objective of the work presented is to demonstrate the implications of these industry practices and assess the impact these practices have on market outcomes. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Electrical Engineering 2016

abstract: The uncertainty and variability associated with stochastic resources, such as wind and solar, coupled with the stringent reliability requirements and constantly changing system operating conditions (e.g., generator and transmission outages) introduce new challenges to power systems. Contemporary approaches to model reserve requirements within the conventional security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) models may not be satisfactory with increasing penetration levels of stochastic resources; such conventional models pro-cure reserves in accordance with deterministic criteria whose deliverability, in the event of an uncertain realization, is not guaranteed. Smart, well-designed reserve policies are needed to assist system operators in maintaining reliability at least cost. Contemporary market models do not satisfy the minimum stipulated N-1 mandate for generator contingencies adequately. This research enhances the traditional market practices to handle generator contingencies more appropriately. In addition, this research employs stochastic optimization that leverages statistical information of an ensemble of uncertain scenarios and data analytics-based algorithms to design and develop cohesive reserve policies. The proposed approaches modify the classical SCUC problem to include reserve policies that aim to preemptively anticipate post-contingency congestion patterns and account for resource uncertainty, simultaneously. The hypothesis is to integrate data-mining, reserve requirement determination, and stochastic optimization in a holistic manner without compromising on efficiency, performance, and scalability. The enhanced reserve procurement policies use contingency-based response sets and post-contingency transmission constraints to appropriately predict the influence of recourse actions, i.e., nodal reserve deployment, on critical transmission elements. This research improves the conventional deterministic models, including reserve scheduling decisions, and facilitates the transition to stochastic models by addressing the reserve allocation issue. The performance of the enhanced SCUC model is compared against con-temporary deterministic models and a stochastic unit commitment model. Numerical results are based on the IEEE 118-bus and the 2383-bus Polish test systems. Test results illustrate that the proposed reserve models consistently outperform the benchmark reserve policies by improving the market efficiency and enhancing the reliability of the market solution at reduced costs while maintaining scalability and market transparency. The proposed approaches require fewer ISO discretionary adjustments and can be employed by present-day solvers with minimal disruption to existing market procedures. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Electrical Engineering 2018

Orientador: Sergio Valdir Bajay / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-09T02:16:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Leite_AlvaroAfonsoFurtado_D.pdf: 1730792 bytes, checksum: 05398fc1640871f56239cb667d810356 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: Neste trabalho se propõe a realização, no Brasil, de estudos de Planejamento Integrado de Recursos ¿ PIR, de cunho indicativo, nas bacias hidrográficas do País, centrado em torno da disponibilidade, custo e qualidade da água, energia elétrica e gás canalizado como importantes vetores de desenvolvimento regional. A implantação do tipo de planejamento proposto nesta tese é bastante complexa e inovadora, no Brasil e no mundo. Tais características impedem um tratamento, neste trabalho, ao mesmo tempo abrangente e detalhado em todas as suas múltiplas facetas. Optou-se, então, por definir, como uma contribuição específica da tese, o desenvolvimento, em detalhes, de estudos prospectivos do mercado de energia, incluindo programas de eficiência energética, em bacias hidrográficas, associados a planos nacionais e projeções de mercado estaduais. Para subsidiar estes estudos e se detectar tendências, realizou-se amplas análises retrospectivas sobre a economia e a matriz energética do Estado de São Paulo e da bacia escolhida, dentro do Estado, utilizando várias fontes de informações de uso público restrito e construindo uma base de dados sócio-econômicos e energéticos municipais para a bacia em questão. A bacia hidrográfica escolhida para ilustrar os procedimentos propostos nesta tese foi a da Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos dos rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí (UGRH ¿ PCJ). Foram avaliados, neste trabalho, programas de eficiência energética implementados em um passado recente na bacia hidrográfica objeto de estudo, que são comparados com programas de eficiência energética que tiveram sucesso no exterior. Como resultado desta avaliação, são propostas novas políticas energéticas, sobretudo na área de eficiência energética, para serem implantadas na bacia; seus prováveis impactos na demanda energética também são estimados, com o auxílio do modelo de projeção de demanda desenvolvido na tese / Abstract: Indicative studies of Integrated Resources Planning are proposed in this thesis for the Brazilian river basins, centred upon the availability, cost and quality of water, electricity and pipeline gas as important resources for regional development. The implementation of the kind of planning proposed in this thesis is highly complex and innovative, not only in Brazil but in the world. Such characteristics hinder an approach, here, which could be, at the same time, broad and detailed, in all its multiple aspects. The option taken, then, as a specific contribution of the thesis, was to develop detailed prospective studies for the energy market in river basins, including energy efficiency programmes, associated to national plans and market forecasts at the state level. To provide subsidies for these studies and to detect trends, wide scope retrospective analysis concerning the economy and the energy market in the State of São Paulo and in the river basin chosen were carried out, using several sources of classified information. A data basis containing social, economic and energy consumption information for the municipalities of that river basin was also built. The river basin chosen to illustrate the procedures proposed in this thesis was the UGRH-PCJ ¿ Unit of Hydro Resources Management of the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai Rivers. Energy efficiency programmes recently implemented in the river basin studied here are evaluated in this work. Comparisons are made with well succeeded programmes abroad. As a result of this assessment, new energy policies for this river basin, particularly those concerning energy efficiency, are proposed. The likely impacts of such policies in the basin¿s energy demand are also estimated, using the demand forecasting model developed in the thesis / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

The aim of this work is to characterize the main determinants influencing the development of electricity prices. Beginnings are dedicated to the description of regulated elements of electricity bill and their development over the last period. The second part deals with power electricity and its development in the spot and futures market. The paper describes the emergence of energy prices on the market and the main determinants affecting the supply and demand curves, such as the price of emission allowances, increasing production from renewable energy and the price of energy raw materials. Part of the work is also analysis of the impact of market coupling on the market price of electricity daily market. The conclusion is devoted to seasonal fluctuations in electricity prices representing the time series.

The restructuring of the electric energy market and the proliferation of intermittent renewable-energy based power generation have introduced serious challenges to power system operation emanating from the uncertainties introduced to the system variables (electricity prices, congestion levels etc.). In order to economically operate the system and efficiently run the energy market, a statistical analysis of the system variables under uncertainty is needed. Such statistical analysis can be performed through an estimation of the statistical moments of these variables. In this thesis, the Point Estimate Methods (PEMs) are applied to the optimal power flow (OPF) problem to estimate the statistical moments of the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and total generation cost under system uncertainty. An extensive mathematical examination and risk analysis of existing PEMs are performed and a new PEM scheme is introduced. The applied PEMs consist of two schemes introduced by H.P. Hong, namely, the 2n and 2n+1 schemes, and a proposed combination between Hong's and M. E Harr's schemes. The accuracy of the applied PEMs in estimating the statistical moments of system LMPs is illustrated and the performance of the suggested combination of Harr's and Hong's PEMs is shown. Moreover, the risks of the application of Hong's 2n scheme to the OPF problem are discussed by showing that it can potentially yield inaccurate LMP estimates or run into unfeasibility of the OPF problem. In addition, a new PEM configuration is also introduced. This configuration is derived from a PEM introduced by E. Rosenblueth. It can accommodate asymmetry and correlation of input random variables in a more computationally efficient manner than its Rosenblueth's counterpart. / Master of Science

O presente trabalho tem como meta auxiliar na resposta a um dos principais problemas estudados no campo das ciências econômicas: o quanto e como intervenções regulatórias afetam a dinâmica dos mercados. Para isso será feita uma análise dos dados contratuais de compra e venda de energia elétrica no ambiente livre de comercialização de energia brasileiro por meio de uma metodologia que utiliza métricas de análise de redes complexas para avaliação da competitividade. Os dados abordam a atividade dos agentes comercializadores de energia nesse mercado durante o período de 2006 a 2015. É estabelecido então um ranking mensal desses agentes e criada a rede por meio da verificação das trocas de posições nesses rankings. Os resultados da análise indicam em quais anos houve maior variação na competitividade no mercado e pela análise das redes resultantes verifica-se a formação de estruturas de mercado. Posteriormente os resultados são comparados com métricas tradicionais de avaliação de competitividade e concentração de mercado e, por fim, é feita uma avaliação qualitativa dos índices sob a luz das principais alterações regulatórias ocorridas no período / The main goal of this project is to assist in the answer to one of the main issues in the study of Economics: how regulatory interventions affect the dynamics of the markets, in this case specifically, electricity markets. This will be achieved through an analysis of the contractual data of electric energy in the free Brazilian energy market environment through a methodology that uses complex network analysis for the evaluation of competitiveness. The data covers the contracts of all energy traders of this market in the period from 2006 to 2015. A monthly ranking of these agents is established and a network is created through the verification of position changes in these rankings. The results of the analysis indicates in which years there was greater variation in competitiveness and the analysis of the resulting networks indicates market structures formation. The results are then compared with traditional metrics for competitiveness and market concentration. Finally, a qualitative assessment of the results is made considering the major regulatory changes that have occurred in the study period

O presente trabalho tem como meta auxiliar na resposta a um dos principais problemas estudados no campo das ciências econômicas: o quanto e como intervenções regulatórias afetam a dinâmica dos mercados. Para isso será feita uma análise dos dados contratuais de compra e venda de energia elétrica no ambiente livre de comercialização de energia brasileiro por meio de uma metodologia que utiliza métricas de análise de redes complexas para avaliação da competitividade. Os dados abordam a atividade dos agentes comercializadores de energia nesse mercado durante o período de 2006 a 2015. É estabelecido então um ranking mensal desses agentes e criada a rede por meio da verificação das trocas de posições nesses rankings. Os resultados da análise indicam em quais anos houve maior variação na competitividade no mercado e pela análise das redes resultantes verifica-se a formação de estruturas de mercado. Posteriormente os resultados são comparados com métricas tradicionais de avaliação de competitividade e concentração de mercado e, por fim, é feita uma avaliação qualitativa dos índices sob a luz das principais alterações regulatórias ocorridas no período / The main goal of this project is to assist in the answer to one of the main issues in the study of Economics: how regulatory interventions affect the dynamics of the markets, in this case specifically, electricity markets. This will be achieved through an analysis of the contractual data of electric energy in the free Brazilian energy market environment through a methodology that uses complex network analysis for the evaluation of competitiveness. The data covers the contracts of all energy traders of this market in the period from 2006 to 2015. A monthly ranking of these agents is established and a network is created through the verification of position changes in these rankings. The results of the analysis indicates in which years there was greater variation in competitiveness and the analysis of the resulting networks indicates market structures formation. The results are then compared with traditional metrics for competitiveness and market concentration. Finally, a qualitative assessment of the results is made considering the major regulatory changes that have occurred in the study period

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T17:11:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO ARTUR CARRIJO2.pdf: 2100488 bytes, checksum: 46e631e94e2bb6d4c69d8d2891f6e200 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-18 / The electricity market has many participants performing various roles. In the context of Smart Grids, it expands the number of participating agents and, consequently, the number, the competition and complexity of the interactions between them. The competition allows consumersto discover and explore energy sources of low cost but requires the consumer other interactions beyond the traditional relationship with the distribution company (distco). With the redefinition of the role of the consumer as a result of his active participation in the balance between supply and demand of energy, it becomes necessary to identify their interactions with the other participants, tasks, systems, subsystems and functions important to actively contribute to this balance. These interactions, called interfaces, are characterized by information that actors communicate itself to perform its functions of information collection and control tasks related to market equilibrium. The determination of these interfaces is not a trivial task because of the various alternatives for integration of the demand side. Different types and combinations of interactions between the supplier and its customers are possible. In this work will be used as a basis for discussion a concept of balance between generation and demand called homeostatic control, initially designed for a scenario of a vertically integrated monopoly. It will be studied the interactions of the consumer using the concept of homeostatic control expanded to consider the functions of demand control and integration of distributed generation and a market model that allows for consumer empowerment and within the paradigm of smart grids. / O mercado de energia elétrica possui diversos participantes exercendo vários papéis. No contexto das redes elétricas inteligentes, amplia-se o número de agentes participantes e, consequentemente, o número, a competição e a complexidade das interações entre eles. A competição permite aos consumidores descobrir e explorar fontes de baixo custo, mas requer do consumidor outras interações além da tradicional relação com a empresa distribuidora. Com a redefinição do papel do consumidor, resultado da participação ativa no processo de equilíbrio entre suprimento e demanda de energia, torna-se necessário identificar suas interações com os demais participantes, tarefas, sistemas, subsistemas e funções, importantes para que contribua ativamente com esse equilíbrio. Estas interações, denominadas interfaces, são caracterizadas pelas informações que os atores comunicam em si para executar suas funções de coleta de informações e tarefas de controle relacionadas ao equilíbrio do mercado. A determinação destas interfaces não é uma tarefa trivial em razão das diversas alternativas de integração do lado da demanda. São possíveis diferentes tipos e combinações de interações entre o fornecedor e seus clientes. Neste trabalho será utilizado como base de discussão um conceito de equilíbrio entre geração e demanda denominado controle homeostático, desenhado inicialmente para um cenário de monopólio verticalmente integrado. Serão estudadas as interações do consumidor utilizando o conceito de controle homeostático ampliado para considerar as funções de controle da demanda e a integração da geração distribuída em um modelo de mercado que permite o empoderamento do consumidor dentro do paradigma das redes elétricas inteligentes.

Lo scopo di questo lavoro è di cercar di trovare una risposta alla seguente domanda: Tenendo conto della attuale situazione del Mercosur e la dinamica del suo sviluppo, quanto sarebbe benefico e/o fattibile il raggiungimento di una maggiore intesa in materia energetica, che potenzialmente potrebbe portare all'integrazione dei mercati energetici della sub-regione? Questi interrogativi conducono dunque all'analisi dell'interrelazione attuale e/o potenziale tra il processo d'integrazione regionale conosciuto come Mercosur e quello d'integrazione dei mercati energetici nella sub-regione. Inoltre, quest'analisi consentirà di verificare se il raggiungimento di una possibile intesa in materia energetica possa scatenare un spill-over positivo, rafforzando il processo attuale dell'integrazione regionale coadiuvando lo sviluppo in altre aree. Dall'analisi su queste tematiche emerge l'idea che sarebbe il settore energetico ad avere la possibilità di alterare la presente natura del Mercosur, non solo per il fatto ovvio che l'energia è ancora un settore dove ancora non si è sviluppato un accordo sub-regionale vincolante, ma anche per la possibilità che il raggiungimento di un tale accordo si ripercuota sulle aree adiacenti del settore energetico, incidendo sui cosiddetti functional linkages, che porterebbe al bisogno d'integrazione su altre aree e settori legati all'energia, dando nuovo impulso per approfondire il processo d'integrazione regionale. / This research is aimed at finding an accurate answer to the following question: Considering Mercosur's current situation and the dynamics of its development, how beneficial and/or possible is the fulfilment of an accord in the energetic field, which would probably mean sub-regional energy markets integration? This question leads us to the study of current and/or potential interrelation between the regional integration process known as Mercosur and sub-regional energy markets integration. Moreover, the above mentioned analysis will allow us to prove whether an accord in the energetic field might unleash a positive spill-over, strengthening the current regional integration process while assisting other areas of it. The analysis of these issues emerges the idea that it will be the energy sector the one that may alter Mercosur's current nature. Not only is it possible because of the obvious thing that energy is a sector where there's no binding accord in a sub-regional field, but also because of the possibility that the fulfilment of this accord may impact on the adjacent areas of the energy sector, influencing the well know functional linkages. In this way, it will emerge the need of integrating other areas and sector linked to the energy sector, giving a new momentum to deepen the regional integration process.