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<p>This dissertation examines the impact of the expansion of renewable technology at both national and local level, through distinct essays. At the national level, the first paper analyzes the effects of economic and distributional impacts of climate mitigation policy, in the context of a developing country, to understand the interactions between the energy system and the macroeconomic environment. In the case of the local level, the second paper uses synthetic control method, to estimate the effect at the county level of utility scale wind in the development indicators for two counties in the U.S. </p> <p>The first paper assesses the economic and distributional impacts of Nicaragua’s commitments to limit future greenhouse gas emissions in the context of the Paris Agreement, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The analysis relies on two distinct models. The first is a top-down approach based on a single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, known as the Mitigation, Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium (MANAGE) Model. The second is a bottom-up approach based on the Open-Source energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), which is technology rich energy model. The combined model is calibrated to an updated social accounting matrix for Nicaragua, which disaggregates households into 20 representative types: 10 rural and 10 urban households. For the household disaggregation we have used information from the 2014 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) for Nicaragua. Our analysis focuses on the distributional impacts of meeting the NDCs as well as additional scenarios—in a dynamic framework as the MANAGE model is a (recursive) dynamic model. The results show that a carbon tax has greatest potential for reduction in emissions, with modest impact in macro variables. An expansion of the renewable sources in the electricity matrix also leads to significant reduction in emissions. Only a carbon tax achieves a reduction in emissions consistent with keeping global warming below 2°C. Nicaragua’s NDC alone would not achieve the target and mitigation instruments are needed. An expansion of generation from renewable sources, does not lead to a scenario consistent with a 2°C pathway. </p> <p>The second paper measures the impact of wind generation on county level outcomes through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). SCM avoids the pitfalls of other methods such as input-output models and project level case studies that do not provide county level estimates. We find that the local per capita income effect of utility wind scale is 6 percent (translate into an increase of $1,511 in per capita income for 2019) for Benton County and 8 percent for White county in Indiana (an increase of $2,100 in per capita income for 2019). The per capita income effect measures the average impact, which includes the gains in rents from capital, land, and labor from wind power in these counties. Moreover, we find that most of the rents from wind power accrue to the owners of capital and labor. Even assuming the lowest projections of electricity prices and the highest reasonable cost we still find a 10 percent minimum rate of return to capital for both Benton and White counties’ wind power generators. Furthermore, we find that there are excess rents that could be taxed and redistributed at the county, state, or federal level without disincentivizing investment in wind power.</p>

<p>A major challenge of achieving sustainable development is to balance two critical targets with finite resources: to secure food security for a growing population with rising consumption demands, and to prevent further pollution into the environment and losses in ecosystem services. More importantly, the targets of food production and environment protection are not only related to socio-economic and technological development, but also tangled together both ecologically and economically, in particular regarding competition for land – the necessary natural resource for achieving both targets. In view of this, a comprehensive understanding about how to achieve sustainable development requires integrated analyses of the nexus of agricultural production, land use and environmental protection (the “agriculture-land-environment nexus”), interactions between these components,  and their responses to socio-economic development and policies. </p> <p><br></p> <p>This dissertation consists of three essays focusing on the impacts of environmental protection polices and infrastructure on the agriculture-land-environment nexus. The first essay analyzes how pollution reduction influences ecosystem services, with both a theoretical model and also empirical analysis with city-level data from China. Existing literature from the environmental and ecological fields reports that pollution reduction contributes to ecosystem services, but the ecosystem effects via economic channels remain under-addressed. We find when integrated together with an economic system, the reduction of pollution causes losses in the area of natural land that supports ecosystem services, which is further supported by empirical evidence. This finding emphasizes the importance of taking ecosystem effects into account on the design, implementation and evaluation of pollution control policies.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The second essay researches the impact of a large-scale forestry and grassland conservation policy in China, the grain-to-green project (GTGP), on cropland supply and crop production. In this essay, we first develop a theoretical model of the relationships between cropland supply, land value (with market access as proxy) and GTGP, and then empirically test these relationships using gridded data from China. We find GTGP not only directly reduces cropland area, but also restricts the elasticity of cropland supply in response to market access. Furthermore, we apply the GTGP’s impacts on cropland supply elasticity on a grid-solving computable model, in order to both validate the model and elasticity estimates via hindcasting and evaluate the GTGP’s impact on agricultural production via simulation. In the computable model where all grids are connected with crop markets, we find two effects of GTGP on agriculture: the direct effect that restricts cropland use and crop production in regions where it is implemented, and the indirect effect that increases crop production on regions not restricted or less restricted by GTGP. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by not only estimating the pattern of gridded cropland supply in China, but also reveals the indirect effect of GTGP on agriculture, which has seldom been researched. </p> <p><br></p> <p>The third essay researches the impact of transportation infrastructure on Brazilian agriculture, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Combining a geographic information system (GIS) based analysis and computable model simulation, we find the expansion of infrastructure mainly contributes to the transportation cost reduction in inland Brazil and causes local cropland expansion and increased GHG emissions from land conversion. However, the shifting of crop production towards inland Brazil reduces the demand for cropland in southeastern and southern Brazil, which offsets the impact on cropland expansion and GHG emissions at the national level. Findings in Essay 3 indicate the importance of capturing both spatial heterogeneity and spatial spillover effects of infrastructure expansion when evaluating agricultural and environmental impacts. </p>

<p>Commercial and regional brewers are increasingly investing in sustainability equipment that reduces input use, operating costs, and environmental impact. These technologies often require significant upfront costs that can limit market access to microbreweries. One potential solution for these brewers is to market their product as sustainable and charge a premium for their product to offset some of the costs. A stated preference choice experiment of a nationally-representative sample is undertaken to elicit consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for sustainability attributes in beer, thus determining whether a market for sustainably-made beer exists. The facets of sustainability, including water reduction, energy reduction, and landfill diversion, are portrayed through eco-labels affixed the front of the primary packaging (aluminum can or glass bottle). Multiple specifications are employed to handle model shortcomings and incorporate discrete heterogeneity. Across all model specifications, <a>consumers show a positive and statistically significant marginal WTP for landfill diversion practices and carbon reduction practices, ranging from $0.40 to $1.37 per six-pack and $0.67 to $1.21 per six-pack, respectively. </a>These results indicate consumers do in fact place value on beer produced using sustainable practices, and the demographics of consumers with the greatest WTP are similar to that of craft beer consumer.</p>

This thesis investigates the social and economic factors affecting small-scale forestry development in Leyte Province, the Philippines, and in particular, the potential to use typologies of rural households to aid the description and interpretation of the diversity of households in relation to forestry development. Data for the analysis of the relationships between socioeconomic factors and tree management behaviour and intentions and the construction of a typology of rural households in Leyte was gathered from four case study communities on the Island. Following focus group discussions in each of the participating communities to gather background data and populate the structured interview schedule, representative samples of 50 households were selected and interviewed in each of the four communities. Analysis of the present tree management activities of households in the four communities revealed that most households surveyed (approximately 80%) indicated that they are presently managing at least a few trees, the primary purpose of most tree management activities being to supply timber for the households' own needs. Only 10% of respondents indicated that they intend to sell trees they are presently managing, and 25% stated that they intend to plant and manage trees for the production of timber for sale in the future. Approximately 60% of responding households indicated an interest in developing commercial tree farming on the land they manage. Thus it is concluded that small-scale commercial tree growing is uncommon in the communities involved in the survey, and that many households are interested in developing their tree planting and management activities but feel constrained from participation by various factors. The first level of exploration of the socioeconomic factors affecting rural households' tree management behaviour involved univariate analyses of the relationships between households' tree management behaviour and intentions, their socioeconomic characteristics and their attitudes to forestry. The level of resources controlled by the household, in terms of the area of the land managed by the household, their tenurial security and their cash income, are correlated with higher levels of participation in forestry activities, and greater intentions to plant higher numbers of trees in the future. Some farming system variables are also related to higher levels of tree planting and management activity, including the management of livestock and of farm plots distant from their house. While control over higher than average levels of productive resources are, in general, positively correlated to the active management of trees on their land, there are patterns of exceptions to this trend. The exploration of the interrelationships between socioeconomic factors and attitudes affecting households' tree management behaviour was undertaken through the definition of a typology of rural households in relation to forestry. Five types were defined, each having different attitudes to forestry activities. The interpretation of the types was undertaken by describing and comparing the socioeconomic and behavioural characteristics of the types in the typology. The types were characterised by differences in their control of productive resources, differences in their present and intended levels and types of forestry activity, and by differences in their participation in training activities run by development programs. The characteristics of the types were found to correspond highly with descriptions of the socioeconomic factors affecting forestry activities of smallholder households reported by previous studies into and theories about the socioeconomic factors affecting smallholder forestry development. The typology of rural households does help to describe and interpret the variation within each of the four communities in terms of households' attitudes to forestry development and their socioeconomic characteristics. It is concluded that these variations between households mean that the various types of households will be affected in different ways by forestry development programs. It is also concluded that the present state of forestry policies and the market for timber products is such that substantial increase in the level of forestry activity by smallholders is unlikely without comprehensive land use planning, policy reform in regards to tree registration and transport permits, and market development. Recommendations for further research and policy development arising from the thesis focuses on the need to create enabling conditions in which forestry activities can occur and on ways to address the differing needs of the various types defined in the typology.

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