A bacia hidrográfica do Rio Grande de Ubatuba (26Km2) encontra-se quase que totalmente recoberta com vegetação nativa da Mata Atlântica, e grande parte está inserida no interior do Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar. O Rio Grande é um manancial estratégico para o município, pois abastece 88% da população, que recebe água tratada de serviço público. Com o propósito de conhecer a potencialidade hídrica do manancial de forma a subsidiar tecnicamente a elaboração do Plano de Manejo para a bacia, o presente estudo foi conduzido para gerar a série histórica de vazão, usando o Modelo SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) e analisar o balanço entre a disponibilidade e a demanda de água. Com apenas quatro anos incompletos de dados fluviométricos e com a série histórica de 67 anos de dados de precipitação, foi possível calibrar os parâmetros e validar o modelo com uma correlação de 0,838 entre as vazões estimada e observada e por último gerar a serie histórica de vazão. Com a série histórica de vazão gerada foi feita a análise temporal do balanço entre a disponibilidade e demanda que permitiram identificar a insuficiência hídrica para atender a demanda para abastecimento público ou para manutenção dos processos ecológicos do manancial, considerando três aspectos: a flutuação da população, a ocorrência de anos hídricos secos e, mesmo nos anos hídricos normais, ocorrência de períodos de meses secos prolongados. Com base na análise conjunta dos resultados, algumas ações consideradas compatíveis para a prevenção de possível escassez de água no futuro foram formuladas, visando proporcionar melhor qualidade de vida à população. / The Rio Grande Watershed of Ubatuba (26km2 ) is almost completely covered with native Atlantic Rainforest vegetation, and a large part is within the bounds of the Serra do Mar State Park. The Rio Grande is a strategic water source for the municipality, supplying 88% of the population demand with treated water via a public service. In order to analyse the water potential of the source and to acquire technical information for the preparation of the Watershed Management Plan, this study was carried generate streamflow historic data, using the SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) model. This, in turn, permitted to analyse the balance between demand and availability of water.With only 4 years of incomplete streamflow data and 67 years of rainfall data, it was possible to calibrate the parameters and validate the model with a correlation of 0.838 between the estimated and observed flows, and finally produce a streamflow history.To produce the streamflow history, a time analysis was carried out with the balance between availability and demand, which allowed the identification of water shortages for public supply, as well as for the maintenance of the stream ecological processes, considering the following three aspects: population fluctuations, the occurrence of drought years and, even in normal years, the occurrence of extended periods of drought.

Los objetivos de la tesis fueron estudiar los factores que pueden explicar la variabilidad existente en la distribución e intensidad de la pesca artesanal en torno a una reserva marina (RM), valorar el efecto de la protección sobre la pesca y analizar y valorar los efectos bio-económicos de configuraciones alternativas de diseño y gestión. Los resultados revelaron que las embarcaciones artesanales calan más artes, de menor longitud, en zonas de elevada diversidad de hábitats. El rendimiento pesquero depende del nivel de protección, la distancia a la RM y la diversidad de artes por unidad de área. La protección está teniendo resultados positivos sobre las poblaciones de peces explotadas y beneficiando a la economía local. El aumento de superficie protegida, distribuido en varias reservas integrales en emplazamientos adecuados, distanciadas unas decenas kilómetros, más que la reducción del esfuerzo, tendría efectos positivos sobre el poblamiento de peces y la economía local. / The aim of the present work is to study the factors that may explain the variability in distribution and intensity of artisanal fishing around a marine reserve, evaluate the reserve effect and analyze and assess the biological and economic effects of alternative configurations of a marine protected area. The results revealed that artisanal vessels used more fishing gears, but shorter, in high habitat diversity areas. The fishing yield depends of protection level, distance to marine reserve and diversity of fishing gears per unit area. The protection measures have had positive results on exploited fish populations and in the local economy. The increase of protected area surface, distributed on several no take zones at appropriate locations, a few kilometers apart, more than the reduction of the fishing effort, would have positive effects on the population of commercial fishes and the local economy.

A bacia hidrográfica do Rio Grande de Ubatuba (26Km2) encontra-se quase que totalmente recoberta com vegetação nativa da Mata Atlântica, e grande parte está inserida no interior do Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar. O Rio Grande é um manancial estratégico para o município, pois abastece 88% da população, que recebe água tratada de serviço público. Com o propósito de conhecer a potencialidade hídrica do manancial de forma a subsidiar tecnicamente a elaboração do Plano de Manejo para a bacia, o presente estudo foi conduzido para gerar a série histórica de vazão, usando o Modelo SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) e analisar o balanço entre a disponibilidade e a demanda de água. Com apenas quatro anos incompletos de dados fluviométricos e com a série histórica de 67 anos de dados de precipitação, foi possível calibrar os parâmetros e validar o modelo com uma correlação de 0,838 entre as vazões estimada e observada e por último gerar a serie histórica de vazão. Com a série histórica de vazão gerada foi feita a análise temporal do balanço entre a disponibilidade e demanda que permitiram identificar a insuficiência hídrica para atender a demanda para abastecimento público ou para manutenção dos processos ecológicos do manancial, considerando três aspectos: a flutuação da população, a ocorrência de anos hídricos secos e, mesmo nos anos hídricos normais, ocorrência de períodos de meses secos prolongados. Com base na análise conjunta dos resultados, algumas ações consideradas compatíveis para a prevenção de possível escassez de água no futuro foram formuladas, visando proporcionar melhor qualidade de vida à população. / The Rio Grande Watershed of Ubatuba (26km2 ) is almost completely covered with native Atlantic Rainforest vegetation, and a large part is within the bounds of the Serra do Mar State Park. The Rio Grande is a strategic water source for the municipality, supplying 88% of the population demand with treated water via a public service. In order to analyse the water potential of the source and to acquire technical information for the preparation of the Watershed Management Plan, this study was carried generate streamflow historic data, using the SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) model. This, in turn, permitted to analyse the balance between demand and availability of water.With only 4 years of incomplete streamflow data and 67 years of rainfall data, it was possible to calibrate the parameters and validate the model with a correlation of 0.838 between the estimated and observed flows, and finally produce a streamflow history.To produce the streamflow history, a time analysis was carried out with the balance between availability and demand, which allowed the identification of water shortages for public supply, as well as for the maintenance of the stream ecological processes, considering the following three aspects: population fluctuations, the occurrence of drought years and, even in normal years, the occurrence of extended periods of drought.

<p>A major challenge of achieving sustainable development is to balance two critical targets with finite resources: to secure food security for a growing population with rising consumption demands, and to prevent further pollution into the environment and losses in ecosystem services. More importantly, the targets of food production and environment protection are not only related to socio-economic and technological development, but also tangled together both ecologically and economically, in particular regarding competition for land – the necessary natural resource for achieving both targets. In view of this, a comprehensive understanding about how to achieve sustainable development requires integrated analyses of the nexus of agricultural production, land use and environmental protection (the “agriculture-land-environment nexus”), interactions between these components,  and their responses to socio-economic development and policies. </p> <p><br></p> <p>This dissertation consists of three essays focusing on the impacts of environmental protection polices and infrastructure on the agriculture-land-environment nexus. The first essay analyzes how pollution reduction influences ecosystem services, with both a theoretical model and also empirical analysis with city-level data from China. Existing literature from the environmental and ecological fields reports that pollution reduction contributes to ecosystem services, but the ecosystem effects via economic channels remain under-addressed. We find when integrated together with an economic system, the reduction of pollution causes losses in the area of natural land that supports ecosystem services, which is further supported by empirical evidence. This finding emphasizes the importance of taking ecosystem effects into account on the design, implementation and evaluation of pollution control policies.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The second essay researches the impact of a large-scale forestry and grassland conservation policy in China, the grain-to-green project (GTGP), on cropland supply and crop production. In this essay, we first develop a theoretical model of the relationships between cropland supply, land value (with market access as proxy) and GTGP, and then empirically test these relationships using gridded data from China. We find GTGP not only directly reduces cropland area, but also restricts the elasticity of cropland supply in response to market access. Furthermore, we apply the GTGP’s impacts on cropland supply elasticity on a grid-solving computable model, in order to both validate the model and elasticity estimates via hindcasting and evaluate the GTGP’s impact on agricultural production via simulation. In the computable model where all grids are connected with crop markets, we find two effects of GTGP on agriculture: the direct effect that restricts cropland use and crop production in regions where it is implemented, and the indirect effect that increases crop production on regions not restricted or less restricted by GTGP. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by not only estimating the pattern of gridded cropland supply in China, but also reveals the indirect effect of GTGP on agriculture, which has seldom been researched. </p> <p><br></p> <p>The third essay researches the impact of transportation infrastructure on Brazilian agriculture, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Combining a geographic information system (GIS) based analysis and computable model simulation, we find the expansion of infrastructure mainly contributes to the transportation cost reduction in inland Brazil and causes local cropland expansion and increased GHG emissions from land conversion. However, the shifting of crop production towards inland Brazil reduces the demand for cropland in southeastern and southern Brazil, which offsets the impact on cropland expansion and GHG emissions at the national level. Findings in Essay 3 indicate the importance of capturing both spatial heterogeneity and spatial spillover effects of infrastructure expansion when evaluating agricultural and environmental impacts. </p>