The objective of this work is to develop a Bayesian Network (BN) model to produce environmental risk maps for oil and gas site developments and to demonstrate the model’s scalability from a point to a collection of points. To reach this objective, a benchmark BN model was formulated as a “proof of concept” using Aquifers, Ecoregions and Land Use / Land Cover maps as local and independent input variables. This model was then used to evaluate the probabilistic geographical distribution of the Environmental Sensibility of Oil and Gas (O&G) developments for a given study area. A Risk index associated with the development of O&G operation activities based on the spatial environmental sensibility was also mapped. To facilitate the Risk assessment, these input variables (maps) were discretized into three hazard levels: high, moderate and low. A Geographical Information System (GIS) platform was used (ESRI ArcMap 10), to gather, modify and display the data for the analysis. Once the variables were defined and the hazard data was included on feature classes (layer shapefile format), Python 2.6 software was used as the computational platform to calculate the probabilistic state of all the Bayesian Network’s variables. This allowed to define Risk scenarios both on prognostic and diagnostic analysis and to measure the impact of changes or interventions in terms of uncertainty. The resulting Python – ESRI ArcMap computational script was called “BN+GIS, which populated maps describing the spatial variability of the states of the Environmental Sensibility and of the corresponding Risk index. The latter in particular, represents a tool for decision makers to choose the most suitable location for placing a drilling rig, since it integrates three fundamental environmental variables. Also, results show that is possible to back propagate the information from the Environmental Sensibility to define the inherent triggering scenarios (hazard variables). A case of study is presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed methodology on a specific geographical setting. The Barnett Shale was chosen as a benchmark study area because sufficient information on this region was available, and the importance that it holds on the latest developments of unconventional plays in the country. The main contribution of this work relies in combining Bayesian Networks and GIS to define environmental Risk scenarios that can facilitate decision-making for O&G stakeholders such as land owners, industry operators, regulators and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), before and during the development of a given site.

Orientador: José Eduardo Zaine / Banca: Paulina Setti Riedel / Banca: Mário Sérgio de Melo / Resumo: Este trabalho foi desenvolvido num trecho do oleoduto da Petrobras entre Cubatão (SP), na Baixada Litorânea, e o alto da serra do Mar. O objetivo principal foi levantar e analisar quais condicionantes do meio físico devem ser considerados para subsidiar a elaboração de uma Carta de Sensibilidade Ambiental, levando em conta as possíveis interferências tanto na ocorrência de acidentes com os dutos, quanto na migração do contaminante. O levantamento de dados secundários envolveu pesquisa bibliográfica, o que possibilitou a definição dos parâmetros e elementos do meio físico de interesse para elaboração de cartas de sensibilidade ambiental e formas de migração do contaminante. Quanto aos dados primários, foram gerados os seguintes mapas, na escala 1:50.000: compartimentação do relevo, geológico-geotécnico, área de influência do duto e sensibilidade ambiental. A integração entre o mapa geológico-geotécnico e a carta de sensibilidade ambiental possibilitou a elaboração de um quadro-síntese, contendo discussões sobre os componentes do meio físico mais importantes para compor esses cartogramas. No mapa de compartimentação do relevo foram definidas 14 unidades, abrangendo áreas do Planalto Paulistano, da Serrania Costeira e da Baixada Litorânea. O mapa geológico-geotécnico, correspondente à junção de informações do mapa de compartimentação do relevo e do mapa geológico, possibilitou a definição de 23 unidades, assim distribuídas: três na área do Planalto Paulistano, 14 na Serrania Costeira e seis na Baixada Litorânea. No mapa da área de influência da dutovia, foi possível delimitar, espacialmente, as áreas direta e indiretamente afetadas, além das porções não afetadas pelos dutos. Os resultados da pesquisa permitem concluir pela importância da aplicação dos condicionantes do meio físico na elaboração de cartas de sensibilidade ambiental a derramamentos de óleo em dutovias situadas em . / Abstract: This work was developed in a sector of the pipeline of Petrobras from Cubatão (SP), in the Coastal Plain, to the high portion of the Serra do Mar. The main objective was to obtain and analyse which factors of the physical environment should be considered to subsidize the elaboration of a Environmental Sensibility Map, taking into account the possible interferences in the occurrence of accidents with the pipeline, as in the migration of the pollutant. The secondary data involved bibliographical research, which enabled the definition of the relevant parameters and elements of the physical environment for the elaboration of environmental sensibility maps and to analyse different ways of migration of the pollutant. Based on the primary data, the following maps were generated, on a scale of 1:50000: homogeneous units of relief, geological-geotechnical map, area of influence of the pipeline, and environmental sensibility map. The integration of the geologicalgeotechnical map and the environmental sensibility map enabled the elaboration of a synthesis table, containing discussions on the components of the most important physical environment, to compose those cartograms. In the map of compartiments of the relief 14 units were defined, including areas of the Plateau of São Paulo, of the Coastal Ridge and of the Coastal Plain. The geological-geotechnical map, corresponding to the integration of the map of compartiments and the geological map, enabled the definition of 23 units, distributed as follows: three in the area of the Plateau of São Paulo, fourteen in the Coastal Ridge and six in the Coastal Plain. In the map of the area of influence of the pipeline, it was possible to delimit areas direct and indirectly affected, besides the portions no affected for the pipelines. The results show the importance of the application of physical environment factors in the elaboration of environmental sensibility maps to oil spill in pipelines located in interior / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:26:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2007-05-04Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:54:19Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 paula_jpl_me_rcla.pdf: 2959388 bytes, checksum: 67b8b23ead77f57c56e0c8ddb72522d8 (MD5) / Este trabalho foi desenvolvido num trecho do oleoduto da Petrobras entre Cubatão (SP), na Baixada Litorânea, e o alto da serra do Mar. O objetivo principal foi levantar e analisar quais condicionantes do meio físico devem ser considerados para subsidiar a elaboração de uma Carta de Sensibilidade Ambiental, levando em conta as possíveis interferências tanto na ocorrência de acidentes com os dutos, quanto na migração do contaminante. O levantamento de dados secundários envolveu pesquisa bibliográfica, o que possibilitou a definição dos parâmetros e elementos do meio físico de interesse para elaboração de cartas de sensibilidade ambiental e formas de migração do contaminante. Quanto aos dados primários, foram gerados os seguintes mapas, na escala 1:50.000: compartimentação do relevo, geológico-geotécnico, área de influência do duto e sensibilidade ambiental. A integração entre o mapa geológico-geotécnico e a carta de sensibilidade ambiental possibilitou a elaboração de um quadro-síntese, contendo discussões sobre os componentes do meio físico mais importantes para compor esses cartogramas. No mapa de compartimentação do relevo foram definidas 14 unidades, abrangendo áreas do Planalto Paulistano, da Serrania Costeira e da Baixada Litorânea. O mapa geológico-geotécnico, correspondente à junção de informações do mapa de compartimentação do relevo e do mapa geológico, possibilitou a definição de 23 unidades, assim distribuídas: três na área do Planalto Paulistano, 14 na Serrania Costeira e seis na Baixada Litorânea. No mapa da área de influência da dutovia, foi possível delimitar, espacialmente, as áreas direta e indiretamente afetadas, além das porções não afetadas pelos dutos. Os resultados da pesquisa permitem concluir pela importância da aplicação dos condicionantes do meio físico na elaboração de cartas de sensibilidade ambiental a derramamentos de óleo em dutovias situadas em . / This work was developed in a sector of the pipeline of Petrobras from Cubatão (SP), in the Coastal Plain, to the high portion of the Serra do Mar. The main objective was to obtain and analyse which factors of the physical environment should be considered to subsidize the elaboration of a Environmental Sensibility Map, taking into account the possible interferences in the occurrence of accidents with the pipeline, as in the migration of the pollutant. The secondary data involved bibliographical research, which enabled the definition of the relevant parameters and elements of the physical environment for the elaboration of environmental sensibility maps and to analyse different ways of migration of the pollutant. Based on the primary data, the following maps were generated, on a scale of 1:50000: homogeneous units of relief, geological-geotechnical map, area of influence of the pipeline, and environmental sensibility map. The integration of the geologicalgeotechnical map and the environmental sensibility map enabled the elaboration of a synthesis table, containing discussions on the components of the most important physical environment, to compose those cartograms. In the map of compartiments of the relief 14 units were defined, including areas of the Plateau of São Paulo, of the Coastal Ridge and of the Coastal Plain. The geological-geotechnical map, corresponding to the integration of the map of compartiments and the geological map, enabled the definition of 23 units, distributed as follows: three in the area of the Plateau of São Paulo, fourteen in the Coastal Ridge and six in the Coastal Plain. In the map of the area of influence of the pipeline, it was possible to delimit areas direct and indirectly affected, besides the portions no affected for the pipelines. The results show the importance of the application of physical environment factors in the elaboration of environmental sensibility maps to oil spill in pipelines located in interior

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-13T17:08:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ClenubioFS.pdf: 1330843 bytes, checksum: f44365144a87dbadb85a95129360dfdc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-10-09 / The northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte State (RN) shows areas of Potiguar basin with high activity in petroleum industry. With the goal of avoiding and reducing the accident risks with oil it is necessary to understand the natural vulnerability, mapping natural resources and monitoring the oil spill. The use of computational tools for environmental monitoring makes possible better analyses and decisions in political management of environmental preservation. This work shows a methodology for monitoring of environment impacts, with purpose of avoiding and preserving the sensible areas in oil contact. That methodology consists in developing and embedding an integrated computational system. Such system is composed by a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS). The SDSS shows a computational infrastructure composed by Web System of Geo-Environmental and Geographic Information - SWIGG , the System of Environmental Sensibility Maps for Oil Spill AutoMSA , and the Basic System of Environmental Hydrodynamic ( SisBAHIA a System of Modeling and Numerical Simulating SMNS). In a scenario of oil spill occurred coastwise of Rio Grande do Norte State s northern coast, the integration of such systems will give support to decision agents for managing of environmental impacts. Such support is supplied through a system of supporting to spatial decisions / O litoral norte do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte (RN) apresenta ?reas da bacia Potiguar com intensa atividade da ind?stria petrol?fera. Com a finalidade de prevenir e minimizar os riscos de acidentes com ?leo, faz-se necess?rio compreender a vulnerabilidade natural, mapear os recursos naturais e monitorar os derrames de ?leo. O uso de ferramentas computacionais para o monitoramento ambiental, possibilita uma melhor an?lise e tomada de decis?o no planejamento de pol?ticas de conserva??o ambiental. A presente disserta??o apresenta uma metodologia de trabalho para o monitoramento de impactos ambientais, com o prop?sito de avaliar e proteger as regi?es sens?veis ao contato do ?leo. A metodologia consiste em desenvolver e implantar um sistema integrado, constituindo um Sistema de Apoio ? Decis?o Espacial (SADE). O SADE apresenta uma infra-estrutura computacional composta pelo SWIGG (Sistema Web de Informa??es Geogr?ficas e Geoambientais), o AutoMSA (Automatizador de Mapas de Sensibilidade Ambiental para derramamentos de ?leo) e o Sistema BAse de HIdrodin?mica Ambiental (SisBAHIA um Sistema de Modelagem e Simula??o Num?rica - SMSN). Num cen?rio de derramamento de ?leo ocorrido pr?ximo ?s ?reas costeiras do litoral norte do Estado do RN a integra??o destes sistemas disponibilizar? aos agentes respons?veis pelo gerenciamento dos danos ambientais, um sistema de suporte a tomada de decis?o espacial