This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the cost-effective climate policy to include a combination of R&D subsidies and CO2 emission constraints, although R&D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO2 constraint (i.e. CO2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that CO2 constraints differentiated toward CO2-intensive sectors are more cost effective than constraints that generate uniform CO2 prices among sectors. Differentiated CO2 prices, through technical change and concomitant technology externalities, encourage growth in the non-CO2 intensive sectors and discourage growth in CO2-intensive sectors. Thus, it is cost effective to let the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R&D subsidies or combinations of both are used to reduce CO2 emissions. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).

The thesis sheds light on key policy issues emerging from the recent Global Financial Crisis. The first chapter studies whether expansionary monetary policy contributes to bank risk-taking, in the case of Asia. I rely on panel data analysis covering 432 banks in 9 Asian countries over the year 2000-2011. The ratio of risky assets to total assets serves as a risk-taking indicator. The results support the existence of the bank risk-taking channel, which is more pronounced for banks listed on the stock market. I also report new findings with respect to how banks take more risk following monetary expansion. Importantly, evidence of excessive leverage is not found. The second chapter constructs a model for analyzing bank risk-taking. I embed firm heterogeneity, endogenous default risk and capital adequacy regulation into both RBC and NK DSGE models. A subset of the firms can partially default on their loans obligation but subject to non-pecuniary default penalty. With those financial frictions in place, I find that standard macroeconomic shocks can induce banks to engage in higher risk-taking. The chapter then explores the effectiveness of several macro-prudential tools in mitigating risk-taking. I find countercyclical capital buffers and risky to total asset ratio targeting to be effective. The third chapter emphasises the spillover effects of shocks originating in the housing and financial market on the real economy. I embed endogenous mortgage default into a New Keynesian model that features housing and the banking sector. The latter faces capital regulation. We study two key shocks, namely shocks to the variance of idiosyncratic housing shock and shocks to the penalty on capital regulation. Both are instrumental in causing a surge in mortgage default and loans risk premium, which constrains bank lending activity. The chapter later introduces three macroprudential measures to explore whether they improve economic stability and welfare.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / This research aims to develop a computable general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents restricted (p-type) and not restricted to credit (q-type) for policy analysis. We used data from the National Accounts (IBGE), PNAD (2009), IPEADATA, to calibrate the model according to the Brazilian economy in 2009. According to the model 11:31% of agents (p-type) generate 0:65% of the total income and are responsible for paying 0:66% of the total tax burden. While other agents (q-type) generate 99:35% of income accounting for 99:34% of the payment of the tax burden. In terms of importance of sources of income, while for p-type income transfers correspond to 55% of labor income for agents of q-type these account for only 16%, which leads to dierent choices of work and leisure between these two types of agents. / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de equilbrio geral comput avel com agentes heterog^eneos restritos (tipo p) e n~ao restritos ao credito (tipo q) para ns de analise de poltica. Utilizou-se dados das Contas Nacionais (IBGE), PNAD (2009), IPEADATA, para calibrar o modelo segundo a economia brasileira no ano de 2009. De acordo com o modelo, 11; 31% dos agentes (tipo p) geram 0; 65% do total da renda e s~ao responsaveis por pagar 0; 66% da carga total tributaria. Enquanto que os demais agentes (tipo q) geram 99; 35% da renda sendo responsaveis por 99; 34% do pagamento da carga tributaria. Em termos de import^ancia das fontes de rendimentos, enquanto para o tipo p rendas de transfer^encias correspondem a 55% da renda do trabalho, para agentes do tipo q estas correspondem a apenas 16%, o que provoca escolhas distintas de trabalho e lazer entre esses dois tipos de agentes.

O debate sobre a desindustrialização brasileira é bastante denso e ainda inconclusivo, embora haja algum consenso entre as diferentes vertentes econômicas de que o setor manufatureiro tem passado por dificuldades, principalmente após a crise financeira de 2008. Tendo este cenário em vista, o governo atuou na tentativa de restaurar a atividade industrial com algumas medidas de estímulo ao setor e através de políticas macroeconômicas (câmbio e juros). Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho investiga os impactos econômicos dessas políticas - redução da taxa de juros, desoneração da folha de pagamentos, redução do IPI, restrição ao fluxo de capitais estrangeiros (elevação do IOF) e redução da tarifa de energia elétrica - sobre a produção, o bem-estar, o consumo, entre outras variáveis macroeconômicas e setoriais. Além disso, busca-se analisar outras duas medidas alternativas - subsídio ao setor de transportes e reforma tributária, comparando seus resultados com aqueles obtidos pela avaliação das medidas já adotadas pelo governo. Para tanto, utiliza-se um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) calibrado para o ano de 2009, com o intuito de estudar cenários de adoção dessas políticas e contribuir para a literatura econômica de forma mais objetiva. Os resultados obtidos pela modelagem indicam que é possível afirmar que muitas das medidas implementadas mostram-se adequadas para o contexto da economia brasileira no pós-crise, seja pelos benefícios setoriais associados a um maior nível tecnológico da produção quanto pelos resultados macroeconômicos de reanimar a atividade econômica. As medidas de redução na taxa de juros (Selic e TJLP) e reforma tributária neutra que considera a substituição dos impostos intermediários pelo VAT são capazes de elevar o PIB e o bem-estar e ainda melhorar a composição setorial da produção e exportação, sem que a atividade do governo seja negativamente afetada. Outras medidas, como a desoneração da folha de pagamentos, reforma tributária com redução da receita fiscal, e a redução no IPI também trazem bons resultados, mas não se sustentam no longo prazo se não houver mudança na eficiência dos gastos públicos, uma vez que todas geram queda na atividade do governo. No sentido contrário, as medidas de subsídio ao setor de transporte, de redução da tarifa de energia elétrica e redução do fluxo de capitais externos, que implicam na atuação do governo sobre o livre funcionamento do mercado, geraram resultados indesejados no que diz respeito a um menor estímulo a indústrias de maior conteúdo tecnológico, além de não reverterem a perda de participação da indústria no emprego e no PIB. / Brazilian deindustrialization debate is quite dense and still inconclusive, although there is some consensus on the manufacturing struggle among different economic approaches, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Considering this scenario, the government has been acting in an attempt to restore industrial activity by granting stimuli focused on the manufacturing sector and curbing currency appreciation. In this context, this study aims to investigate the economic impacts of these policies on GDP, welfare, consumption and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. Furthermore, alternative policies were considered, in order to compare the results with those obtained through the evaluation of effective government policies. Therefore, we apply a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, updated for 2009, in order to study the effects of adopting these polices and contribute to the economic literature concerning this subject. The results indicate that it is possible to affirm that most measures are appropriate to help Brazilian economy after the crisis, both by sector benefits associated with a higher technological level of production and by improving macroeconomic outcomes. Measures to reduce interest rate (Selic and TJLP) and neutral tax reform that considers the replacement of intermediaries tax by VAT are able to raise GDP and welfare and to further improve the sectoral composition of production and export, without adversely affecting government activity. Other measures, such as payroll exemptions, tax reform with reduction of the fiscal income, and IPI reduction also bring good results, but would hardly be maintained in long term if there is no change in public spending efficiency, since all have negative impacts on government activity. On the contrary, subsidies to the transport sector, cuts in electricity rates and restriction to foreign capital inflow, which reflect government action on free market functioning, led to undesirable results in the context of raising technological level of the Brazilian production and reverse industry participation loss in employment and GDP.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-07-18T15:44:28Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese - Jorge Henrique N. Viana.pdf: 2402150 bytes, checksum: ee144a28e33ce323e017bdcdc93b9d11 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-18T15:44:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese - Jorge Henrique N. Viana.pdf: 2402150 bytes, checksum: ee144a28e33ce323e017bdcdc93b9d11 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-11 / CNPq / Esta tese desenvolve uma plataforma integrada para avaliar os efeitos sobre a economia de possíveis reduções na disponibilidade hídrica sobre a agricultura, sobretudo o impacto de tais reduções na pobreza. Para construir a plataforma foi necessário o uso de diversas ferramentas metodológicas. Inicialmente foi construído um índice de pobreza multidimensional (MPI) para as unidades federativas do Brasil com base nos dados da POF 2008/2009. Dentre os principais resultados obtidos com esta aplicação do MPI destaca-se o percentual de 14% dos domicílios classificados como pobres usando a referida medida no Brasil. Posteriormente foi estimado um modelo de demanda por alimentos em dois estágios, com o primeiro estágio sendo um modelo Working-Leser e o segundo um modelo LA-AIDS, com variável instrumental, ambos baseados na Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF). Então foram estimadas funções de produção translog para os setores agrícola e o de Água & Esgoto (AE). Além disso, acrescentou-se uma função de produção translog ray para o setor de AE, a qual representava a criação de novas ligações de água encanada e esgotamento sanitário, baseados nos dados do Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS) e do Censo Agropecuário 2006. Por fim, o último bloco da plataforma foi um modelo básico de Equilíbrio Geral Computável padrão, com base nos dados das Tabelas de Recurso e Usos, usando os valores estimados dos parâmetros do sistema de demanda e das funções de produção dos setores agrícolas e AE. Foram simulados três cenários envolvendo restrições de disponibilidade de água pelos setores agrícolas de 10%, 20% e 30% de forma exógena obtendo-se assim tarifas endógenas ou disposição a pagar (DAP) pelo uso da água em cada um dos setores agrícolas. Esses recursos obtidos com as tarifas permaneceriam sob o domínio do governo nestes primeiros cenários. Além disso, foram simulados mais dois cenários com restrição hídrica de 30%, mas nestes os recursos obtidos com as tarifas foram repassados para as famílias ou como um subsídio ao setor AE. Dentre os vários resultados, destaca-se que a redução na demanda total por água bruta foi maior quanto maior foi a restrição hídrica para a agricultura simulada, chegando a 18,44% sob uma restrição hídrica de 30%. Quanto a produção, sua maior redução foi de 0,39% sob uma restrição hídrica de 30% Sobre as tarifas sobre o uso da água obtidas endogenamente, resultaram bem maiores do que aquelas praticadas atualmente em algumas regiões no Brasil. Finalmente, no que diz respeito a pobreza, a medida MPI nacional foi fracamente crescente com a restrição hídrica, mas sob todos os cenários sua variação não foi estatisticamente significante. E assim como aconteceu com os demais resultados, as medidas de pobreza não variaram em decorrência do destino dos recursos obtidos com a tarifa sobre a água. Quanto a distribuição dos impactos entre as UFs, os resultados foram bastante distintos, com algumas UFs apresentando aumentos da pobreza na ordem de 15% (Amapá e Rondônia), enquanto outras apresentaram aumentos do MPI abaixo dos 2%, como São Paulo e Distrito Federal. Já entre os diferentes estratos sociais de renda, de maneira geral, famílias mais pobres sofreram mais com os aumentos nos preços dos alimentos causados pelas restrições hídricas. Por fim, ainda que não tenham sido analisados nesta tese, a plataforma encontra-se habilitada a gerar diversos outros resultados sob cenários de restrições hídricas que não envolvam apenas o setor agrícola mas também o setor de AE. Ademais, de maneira inversa ao que se apresenta como resultados nesta tese, a plataforma pode simular de forma exógena diversas tarifas de água bruta para os dois setores (agrícola e AE) e mensurar os resultantes impactos não só nas reduções de demanda dos referidos setores, mas também nos agregados econômicos e na medida de pobreza. / This thesis develops an integrated platform to assess the effects on the economy of possible reductions in water availability on agriculture, especially the impact of such reductions on poverty. To build the platform various methodological tools were required. Initially a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) to the federal units of Brazil based on data from POF 2008/2009 was built. Among the main results of this application of the MPI we can highlight that 14% of Brazilian households were classified as poor using this measure. Later a demand model for food in two stages, with the first stage being a Working-Leser model and the second a LA-AIDS model with instrumental variable, both based on the POF, was estimated. Also translog production functions for the agricultural sector and the Water & Sewer sector (AE) were estimated. In addition, we estimated a translog ray production function to the AE sector, which represented the creation of new connections of piped water and sanitation, based on data from the National Sanitation Information System (SNIS) and the Agricultural Census 2006. Finally, the last building block of the was a standard Computable General Equilibrium model, based on the data of the Tabela de Recursos e Usos, but incporporating the estimated demand system parameters and production functions of agricultural and AE sectors. We simulated three scenarios involving exogenously restrictions of water availability for agricultural sectors of 10%, 20% and 30% thus yielding endogenous tariffs or willingness to pay (WTP) for water use in each of the agricultural sectors. While the revenues of these rates would remain under government domain in these three standard scenarios. In addition, two other scenarios were simulated with water restriction of 30%, but with the revenues from these tariffs passed on directly to the families or used to finance a subsidy to the AE sector. Among the various results, it is emphasized that the reduction in the total demand for raw water (blue water) was greater than the reduction in agriculture production, with the primer reaching 18,44% under a water restriction of 30%. As for total production, the greater reduction was 0.39% under a water restriction of 30%. About the tariffs on water use obtained endogenously, they were much higher than those currently practiced in some regions in Brazil. Finally, with regard to poverty, national MPI was weakly increasing with water restriction, but under all scenarios its variation was not statistically significant. And as happened with the other results, the poverty measures did not change due to the destination of the revenues from the tariff on water. As the distribution of impacts among the Federative Units, the results were quite different, with some Federative Units presenting poverty increases above 15% (Amapá e Rondônia), while others showed poverty measures increases below 2%, like São Paulo e Distrito federal. Among the different social strata of income, in general, poorer households suffered most with increases in food prices caused by water restrictions. Finally, even if they have not been analyzed in this thesis, the platform is enabled to generate different results under other scenarios of water restrictions that not only involve the agricultural sector but also the AE sector. In addition, conversely to what is presented in this thesis, the platform can simulate various exogenously raw water tariffs for the two sectors (agricultural and AE) and measure the resulting impact not only on the demand of those sectors, but also in the economic aggregates and poverty measures.

A mixture-fraction-based thermodynamic equilibrium approach for modeling gas-phase combustion was adapted and used in FIRETEC, a wildfire computational fluid dynamics model. The motivation behind this work was the desire to incorporate the features of complex chemistry calculations from the thermodynamic equilibrium model into FIRETEC without significantly increasing the computational burden of the program. In order to implement the mixture-fraction-based thermodynamic equilibrium approach, a sub-grid pocket model was developed to simulate the local mixture fraction of sub-grid flame sheets. Numerical simulations of wildfires were performed using FIRETEC with the new sub-grid, mixture-fraction-based pocket model to model gas-phase combustion. The thermodynamic equilibrium model was used to calculate flame temperatures and combustion products, including CO2 and CO, for sub-grid, gas-phase combustion in FIRETEC simulations. Fire spread rates from simulations using the new sub-grid combustion model were 25-100% higher than fire spread rates from previous FIRETEC simulations, but the successes of modeling propagating fire lines and calculating detailed equilibrium combustion products from simulated sub-grid flame sheets demonstrated the feasibility of this new approach. Future work into the fine-tuning of pocket model parameters and modifying the conservation equation for energy in FIRETEC was recommended.

The Brazilian aquaculture sector has experienced growth in recent decades, and economic data from the sector is needed to characterize the supply chain, the consumer markets and financial indicators of fish producing units. Reliable statistical data on the Brazilian aquaculture sector is also needed to aid in the research efforts toward the sector. This dissertation analyzes data collected from experiments, suppliers and consumers of tilapia and tambaqui, the two most important fish farming species in Brazil, in three essays. <p></p><div><br></div><div>The first essay aims to fill a gap in the literature by assessing the economic returns to lettuce and juvenile tilapia production in an aquaponics system. Experimental data that varied fish stocking density and feeding rate when co-producing fish and lettuce in Brazil is analyzed. Using different nonparametric efficiency testing methods, a set of undominated technologies in the form of input mix, is identified. In addition, sensitivity analysis is used to assess the ranges for prices over which the choice of technology is robust. Results from the technical efficiency analysis show that it is possible to get marketable lettuce in synchronization with the fish production cycle using a reduced level of feed. At observed average regional market prices (0.18 R$/tilapia fingerling, 2.8 R$/kg for fish feed, 20 R$/kg for juvenile fish and 1.70 R$/lettuce plant), the highest profit alternative in the experimental design is from an initial stocking density of 250 fingerlings per m3, feeding at the recommended rate, and harvesting on the 29th day. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the choice of best input combination is sensitive to only the prices of fish feed input and juvenile fish output. A complete financial analysis was based on this production strategy, and results indicate that a 10-year project is economically viable.<br></div><div><br></div><div>Consumer demand for tilapia and tambaqui product attributes is studied in the second essay. Seafood supply chains, from fish farmers to supermarkets selling direct to consumers, must understand consumer demand for product attributes to ensure production and availability of desired products. Consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for tilapia and tambaqui fillets was estimated taking consumer demographics into account for each of the five Brazilian regions. A random parameters logit model was used to analyze data from discrete choice experiments conducted in-person at supermarket seafood counters. On average, Brazilian fish consumers prefer tilapia to tambaqui, and fresh to frozen fillets. Stated preferences were found to be related to knowledge about fish. This study is the first known analysis of national seafood preferences considering factors such as product form, species, and familiarity with fish and fish products in Brazil. <br></div><div><br></div><div>In the third essay, a spatial analysis of the supply chain of tilapia and tambaqui is conducted with a focus on potential policy interventions and changes in the economic environment. The analysis is based on a partial equilibrium model of the sector and is the first comprehensive model of the aquaculture supply chain for Brazil. The demand component of the model is estimated econometrically using synthetic data based on the previous consumer choice experiment combined with secondary data on aggregate fish demand. The resulting demand system reflects asymmetric cross price impacts violating Samuelson’s integrability condition. Rather than imposing symmetry during estimation, the model is formulated as a complementary problem. The spatially disaggregated model is applied to the evaluation of the impact of factors such as governmental incentives (subsides of fish feed), international oil price shocks (changes in the cost of transportation), increases in consumers’ income (shifts in demand), and decreases in retailers’ margins on the regional pattern of tilapia and tambaqui production and final consumption. Changes in transportation costs, impacted by oil prices or road improvements had little impact on market outcomes. A 10% reduction on retailers’ gross margins decreased prices by 5.2% and increased quantity demanded by 5.4%, while an 8% reduction in fish feed costs due to tax cuts indicates, on average, 5.4% lower selling prices for farmers.<br></div>

This study analyzes the trade war between the United States (US) and China using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. Five scenarios focused on economic decoupling are ana- lyzed: 1. Mutual tariff levels increased to 25%, 2. Mutual tariff levels increased to 45%, 3. Bilateral export levels decreased by 25%, 4. Bilateral export levels decreased by 45%, and 5. Trade efficiency decreased by 10%. The analysis shows both the US and China's consumer welfare and GDP decreased across all scenarios, with a larger decrease in China. In addition, when exports from China and the United States decrease, there is an increase in exports from the ASEAN region. JEL Classification C68, F13, F11, Keywords Trade war, CGE, General Equilibrium Title Measuring the Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using a Computable General Equi- librium Model Author's e-mail hehaeunk@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第23950号 / 農博第2499号 / 新制||農||1091(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R4||N5385(農学部図書室) / 京都大学大学院農学研究科森林科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 岡田 直紀, 教授 井鷺 裕司, 教授 柴田 昌三 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

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