[pt] Esta tese de doutorado consiste de três ensaios relacionados ao gerenciamento de risco cambial e ao desempenho das empresas brasileiras em períodos de crises cambiais. O primeiro ensaio testa se as perdas patrimoniais implicadas pelas depreciações cambiais reduzem o investimento das empresas. Encontramos que, entre 2001 e 2003, empresas com elevados descasamentos cambiais na véspera da crise reduziram seus investimentos em 8,1 pontos percentuais, comparativamente às demais empresas de capital aberto. Mostramos, também, que a depreciação cambial aumentou a competitividade das empresas exportadoras, mas, ainda assim, implicou perda de 12,5 pontos percentuais no investimento das exportadoras com descasamentos cambiais, relativamente às demais exportadoras. Essas quedas estimadas de investimento são economicamente muito relevantes, corroborando a importância dos efeitos patrimoniais negativos das depreciações cambiais. O segundo ensaio investiga se a listagem de ações nos Estados Unidos através de ADRs disciplina as decisões corporativas. Mostramos que as emissões de ADRs induzem uma gestão de risco cambial mais eficiente: em antecipação à crise cambial brasileira de 1999, em média, as empresas com ADRs reduziram em 6,4 pontos percentuais a proporção de descasamento cambial sobre ativos, relativamente às empresas sem ADRs. Resultados adicionais conectam esse forte ajuste à pressão de arbitradores internacionais. Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio testa se as garantias governamentais de que não haverá uma desvalorização significativa do câmbio, implícitas nos regimes de câmbio administrado, estimulam um endividamento excessivo em moeda estrangeira. Dados de empresas brasileiras, antes e depois do fim do regime de câmbio administrado em 1999, sugerem que tais garantias não são relevantes para a decisão de endividamento em moeda estrangeira. / [en] This thesis consists of three essays that relate the currency risk management with the performance of Brazilian firms in currency crises. The first essay tests if the exchange-rate balance sheet effects of the currency depreciation reduce the companies´ investments. We find that, between 2001 and 2003, firms that shortly before the crisis had large currency mismatches decreased their investment rates by 8.1 percentual points, relatively to other public firms. Moreover, we show that the currency depreciation implied large competitive gains for the exporters, and yet the investment of exporters with large currency mismatches fell by 12.5 percentual points, relatively to other exporters. The estimated falls in investment are economically very relevant, thereby corroborating the relevance of negative exchange-rate balance sheet effects of currency depreciation. The second essay investigate if the cross-listing in the U.S., mainly through ADRs, discipline corporate decisions. Using data on the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999, we show that firms with ADRs manage their currency risk more effectively. Anticipating the crisis, ADR firms reduced the average ratio of their currency mismatches over assets by 6.4 percentage points, relatively to other public firms. Additional results link this stronger adjustment to the pressure of international arbitrageurs. Finally, the third essay tests if the government guaranties that there won´t be a large devaluation of the exchange rate, implicitly in a fixed exchange-rate regime, bias corporate borrowing towards foreign currency. Data on Brazilian firms, before and after the end of the fixed exchange rate regime in 1999, suggest that the implicit guarantees do not have a relevant impact on firms´ incentives to issue foreign debt.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vinicius Gontijo Lauar.pdf: 347182 bytes, checksum: bc6816345331a10fe7480489968af1c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-06-27 / Regarding the Argentine economy, more unexpected than the economic chaos of 2001-2002, when the GNP has fallen 11%, a default was declared and it has irrupted with the convertibility regime, was the inversion of the economic tendency, which was remarked by an uninterrupted annual growth of 8.5% until 2006. The objective of this research is the comprehension of the period characterized by the accentuated recovery of the crisis passed by that country. In order to do so, we have written three papers related to the reconstruction of such economy. In the first one it s analyzed the convertibility, regime present in the 90 s, and the dynamics that conduced to economy crisis. The second paper treats issues centered in Argentina post-convertibility, with special regard to the aspects of the ruptures generated by the crises that explain the recovery. The third analyses the debate regarding some interpretations of the Argentine experience, with focus in the causes and consequences of the contracts ruptures and discretionary state action in the economic policy. As assumption, we see the govern measures along with the end of the convertibility model as essential to the return of positive growth rates and macroeconomic stability. Our framework stands in the keynesian and structuralist theories, mainly based in the works of Frenkel, Damill, Heymann and Calcagnno / Em se tratando de economia argentina, mais inesperado que o caos econômico de 2001-2002, quando o PIB caiu 11%, decretou-se uma moratória recorde e rompeu-se com a conversibilidade, foi a inversão da tendência econômica, marcada por um crescimento médio anual ininterrupto de 8,5% até 2006. O objetivo deste trabalho é a compreensão do período caracterizado pela recuperação acentuada da crise atravessada por aquele país. Para tal, foram elaborados três artigos relativamente independentes relacionados à reconstrução de tal economia. No primeiro, analisa-se a conversibilidade, regime vigente nos anos noventa, e a dinâmica que conduziu à crise. O segundo artigo trata de questões centradas na Argentina pós-conversibilidade, com especial atenção para os aspectos das rupturas geradas na crise que explicam a recuperação. O terceiro analisa o debate sobre algumas interpretações da experiência argentina, com ênfase nas causas e conseqüências da ruptura de contratos e da ação discricionária do Estado na política econômica. Como hipótese, colocamos as medidas do governo juntamente à ruptura com o modelo de conversibilidade como fundamentais para o retorno das taxas de crescimento e da estabilidade macroeconômica. Nosso arcabouço teórico apóia-se nas teorias keynesiana e estruturalista, baseada, fundamentalmente, nos trabalhos de Frenkel, Damill, Heymann e Calcagno

La présente thèse porte sur « Les Perspectives de Ciblage de l'Inflation dans les Pays de l'UEMOA » dontl'opportunité pourrait être bien saisie à la suite de la nouvelle réforme institutionnelle de l'UMOA et de laBCEAO. Cette réforme doit s'accompagner d'une stratégie opérationnelle explicite dans la mesure où sesinnovations majeures sont très proches d'une politique de ciblage de l'inflation. Pour cela, nous évaluons lapolitique monétaire de la BCEAO axée en partie sur un régime de change fixe depuis les indépendances.Ainsi, après avoir montré la nécessité pour les Banque Centrale d’ancrer les anticipations inflationnistesdans les pays de l'UEMOA et l'apport potentiel de l'annonce d'un objectif d'inflation dans la maîtrise du tauxd'inflation (Chapitre 1), nous montrons que la politique de change fixe n'a pas été à l'origine des tauxd'inflation relativement contenus dans la l'Union, mais pire, elle procure de mauvaises résultats en termesd'une croissance économique élevée et soutenue (Chapitre 2). En cela, nous recommandons pour l’Unionun cadre de type d’une combinaison d’un régime de change intermédiaire et d’une stratégie de ciblage del’inflation. C’est ainsi qu’une cible d’inflation a été déterminée et, elle apparaît différente aussi bien d’un paysà l’autre que de l’objectif de 2% annoncé par le Comité de Politique Monétaire de la BCEAO (Chapitre 3).Nous terminons en déterminant la règle de ciblage d'inflation, et montrons que la meilleure règle optimaleque les autorités monétaires devraient adopter dans un cadre de ciblage de l'inflation concilie l’ancragenominal et la régulation conjoncturelle (Chapitre 4). / This thesis focuses on evaluating the "Prospects of Inflation Targeting in the WAEMU countries" in the wakeof the new institutional reform followed by the WAMU and the BCEAO. This reform must be accompanied byan explicit operational strategy insofar as its major innovations are very close to a policy of inflation targeting.Accordingly, we assess the impact of monetary policy of the BCEAO that focused on fixed exchange ratesince independence. In this respect, we manifest the inability of the fixed exchange rate policy to anchorinflation expectations in the WAEMU countries and the potential contribution regarding the announcement oftarget in controlling inflation (Chapter 1). In addition, we demonstrate, on the one hand, that the fixedexchange rate policy was not the cause of inflation contained in the WAEMU, and on the other, it providespoor results in terms of high and sustained economic growth (Chapter 2). Consequently, we recommend aframework of combination of an intermediate exchange rate regime and an inflation targeting strategy forWAEMU countries. Hence, an inflation target has been determined and it appears to be different from onecountry to another, against the 2% target announced by the Monetary Policy Committee of the BCEAO(Chapter 3). Finally, we define the inflation targeting rule, and show that the best optimal rule that monetaryauthorities adopt in an inflation targeting framework should ideally, reconciles nominal anchor and economicregulation (Chapter 4).