Effects of cost and accuracy on the decision to request and to utilize expert advice were investigated in 2 experiments using a choice task. Experiments 1 and 2 found that experienced accuracy significantly predicted requesting expert advice. Participants in Experiment 2 used very inaccurate experts to rule out the expert's option. Cost affected requesting advice in Experiment 1 only when cost was able to exceed the amount that could be gained for a correct choice. Experiment 2 found a significant interaction between cost and experienced accuracy. Both experiments found requesting advice was the only significant predictor for changing answers. The results did not support an adherence to sunk costs in the decision to change answers.

Three experiments were conducted to identify the impact of factors associated with the environment (predictability of the environment) and factors associated with an available expert (the accuracy of the expert and the cost of the expert's advice) on the optimal utilization of the expert. Across all three experiments, participants overutilized the expert (requesting advice when advice was suboptimal) when the expert accuracy was higher and when the environment was less predictable. Conversely, participants underutilized the expert (not requesting advice when doing so was optimal) more when the environment was more predictable and the expert was less accurate. Participants showed little sensitivity to the cost of advice, further compounding the errors. Requiring participants to request advice on every training trial increased reliance on the later optional expert and led to properties of the expert primarily influencing the decision to request advice. Requiring participants to rely only on the environmental cue during training decreased overall reliance on the later optional expert and led to properties of the environment primarily influencing the decision to request advice. Requiring participants to interact with both the environment and the expert during training led to better overall decisions and to the integration of environmental cues and properties of the expert to inform the decision to request advice.

Whether it is in private or professional lives, people are called to make decisions and they tend to seek expert advice. The old adage indicates that more heads are better than one. Receiving more information is often helpful to decisions. However, getting multiple conflicting expert advice might put decision makers in difficult situations. Little is known about their feelings, thinking, and behaviors under such conditions. This research aims to fill the gap and understand the abovementioned consequences of taking multiple conflicting expert advice when making professional (i.e., business or personnel-related) decisions. Using an interview-based qualitative approach, this research sheds light on contextual characteristics where conflicting expert advice may be more beneficial (or harmful), which contributes practical recommendations to improve professional decisions. In sum, this research seeks to verify whether the common wisdom of “more is better” holds up to empirical scrutiny, and suggests that it is “no pain, no gain”.

This diploma thesis deals with risk mapping and investigation in the expert activity. To obtain further information, the questionnaire survey will be addressed to the experts from the Czech Republic as a supportive material of the diploma thesis. The part of the thesis will be focused on analysis and comparison of expert activity in neighbouring countries of the Czech Republic. The identified risks will evaluated based on the analysis of expert activity current state. The outcome of the thesis will be assessment of the situation in the Czech Republic and suggestions of measures leading to elimination of the risks as well as to reduction the occurrence probability or mitigating the impact of risks realization.

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No description available.

Dans un marché de l'assurance vie en Afrique subsaharienne francophone à la traîne, mais promis à un bel avenir en cas d'émergence de solutions techniques et commerciales endogènes, la thèse propose des outils théoriques et opérationnels adaptés à son développement. Cette démarche s'inscrit en parallèle des actions entreprises par l'autorité de contrôle régionale (la CIMA) pour fournir aux assureurs de la région des outils adaptés. En effet, la CIMA a initié des travaux pour la construction de nouvelles tables réglementaires d'expérience, ce qui a permis de fournir des références fiables et pertinentes pour la mortalité de la population assurée dans la région. Toutefois, certaines problématiques techniques utiles n'ont pas été développées dans ces travaux de construction. La thèse leur accorde alors une attention particulière. Ainsi, d'une part, la thèse permet de fournir des outils pour tenir compte des différences de mortalité entre pays de la région, tout en limitant les risques systématiques liés aux fluctuations d'échantillonnage (dues à la petite taille des échantillons de données par pays). Il apparaît notamment que si la modélisation indépendante de chaque pays n'est pas appropriée, les modèles d'hétérogénéité à facteurs observables, tels que le modèle de Cox ou de Lin et Ying, permettent d'atteindre cet objectif. On précise toutefois ici que ces modèles d'hétérogénéité ne permettent pas de supprimer le risque systématique lié aux fluctuations d'échantillonnage lors de l'estimation du modèle, ils engendrent seulement une réduction de ce risque en contrepartie d'une augmentation du risque systématique lié au choix du modèle. D'autre part, la thèse permet également de fournir des outils pour modéliser la mortalité d'expérience future dans la région. En absence de données sur les tendances passées de la mortalité d'expérience, ni le modèle classique de Lee-Carter ni ses extensions ne sont applicables. Une solution basée sur un ajustement paramétrique, une hypothèse sur la forme de l'évolution du niveau de mortalité (évolution linaire ou exponentielle) et un avis d'expert sur l'espérance de vie générationnelle à un âge donné est alors proposée (ces travaux s'appuient sur le modèle de Bongaarts). Ensuite, dans un second temps, en supposant disposer de données sur les tendances passées (ce qui pour mémoire n'est pas le cas à ce stade dans la région, mais devrait l'être dans les prochaines années), la thèse propose une modélisation de la mortalité future à partir d'une référence de mortalité externe et une analyse des risques systématiques associés (risques liés aux fluctuations d'échantillonnage et au choix de la référence de mortalité) / In a market of life insurance in sub-Saharan Francophone behind, but with a bright future in the event of emergence of endogenous technical and commercial solutions, the thesis provides theoretical and operational tools adapted to its development. This approach is in parallel with actions taken by the supervisory authority regional (CIMA) to provide insurance tools in the region. Indeed, CIMA has initiated work to construct new tables regulatory experience, which has provided reliable and relevant references for mortality of the insured population in the region. However, some useful technical issues were not developed in such construction. The thesis then give them special attention. Thus, on the one hand, the theory can provide tools to account for differences in mortality between countries in the region, while limiting the risks associated with systematic sampling fluctuations (due to small sample sizes data countries). Particular, it appears that if the model independent of each country is not appropriate, models of heterogeneity with observable factors, such as the Cox or Lin and Ying model, can achieve this goal. However, it says here that these models of heterogeneity does not eliminate the systematic risk due to sampling fluctuations when estimating the model, they generate only a reduction of this risk in exchange for an increase in systematic risk associated the choice of model. On the other hand, the thesis can also provide tools to model future mortality experience in the region. In the absence of data on past trends in mortality experience, nor the classical Lee-Carter or its extensions are applicable. A solution based on a parametric adjustment, an assumption about the form of changes in the level of mortality (exponential or linear trend) and an expert opinion on the generational life expectancy at a given age is then proposed (this work based on the model of Bongaarts). Then in a second time, assuming availability of data on past trends (which for the record is not the case at this stage in the region, but should be in the coming years), the thesis proposes a model of future mortality from an external reference mortality and analyzes associated systematic risk (risk of sampling fluctuations and on the choice of the reference of mortality)

This master´s thesis deals with the identification of risks which affect the operations of experts activities in the Czech Republic. To obtain the necessary information there will be used a questionnaire in which the forensic experts in the field of Economy will be addressed.In the first part of the thesis there are described theoretical recourses which contains the explanation of basic concepts which are connected with identified risks. The second part of the thesis deals with the professional insurance of experts. By the SWOT analysis will be processed each expert knowledge on the topic of “The Basic issues of the expertising from the risk management.“ Finally will be evaluated the current state of expert activities in the Czech Republic and will be suggested possible measures.

The theme of this work is expert activities in the expropriation proceedings. In the first part of this paper will focus generally on expropriation and on terms that are associated with this institute. I will also consider the purpose of expropriation and the laws under which it is possible to carry out the expropriation. A description of the actual course of the dispossession, respectively. expropriation under the Expropriation Act. In the next section I will deal with expert activities in the expropriation proceedings, ie the status of an expert in the expropriation proceedings, the structure of the expert report and its appurtenances and eventually own appreciation for the expropriation proceedings. In the last part of this work create a training expert opinion for the purpose of expropriation, which is evident from its structure.

This thesis deals with the measurement of ponds and influencing aspects that may play a role in the valuation of ponds. In the first part of the thesis, the author discusses the basic concepts and issues that are necessary for the valuation of the pond. In the second part of the thesis is stated as a specific example of a pond situated on three pozemcíchy using the cost method of valuation in accordance with Decree successive steps and for comparing valuation program ABN14.