The thesis summarizes current state of art for the most recent research capabilities of innovation activities analysis. Its main goal is to assess the factors influencing pace and volume of technological innovativeness throughout the European industry and services sectors considering time span 2002-2008 using country-level Community Innovation Surveys and R&D data. It also attempts to evaluate trends in innovation policy instruments targeted to close the gap between Europe and world innovation leaders such as USA. Complex literature overview, basic empirical and extended instruments' analyses lead to recommendations of optimal governments' policy approaches towards different groups of countries divided by level of innovative performance.

Credit spread is the extra risk-reward that an investor is bearing for investing in corporate bonds instead of government bonds. Structural models, which are simple in their framework, fail to explain the occurring credit spread and underestimate the predicted credit spread. Hence, the need for new models and exploration of systematic and idiosyncratic variables arose. The present paper aims to investigate if the predictability of lower-medium investment grade bonds and non-investment grade bonds credit spread can be improved by incorporating systematic and idiosyncratic variables into a fixed effect panel data regression model, and whether the selected variables’ significance has high influence on credit spread or not. Initial results showed that fixed effect panel data regression model underperforms the structural models and under predicts the actual credit spread. The applied model explained 13.5% of the lower-medium investment grade bonds credit spread and 8.5% of non-investment grade bonds. Further, systematic variables have higher influence on lower-medium investment grade bonds and idiosyncratic variables have higher influence on non-investment grade bonds. The predictability of credit spread can be improved by employing correct explanatory variables which are selected based on the characteristics of the sample size.

This dissertation presents a novel procedure to select explanatory variables, without the influence of human bias, for deterioration model development using National Bridge Inventory (NBI) data. Using NBI information, including geometric data and climate information, candidate explanatory variables can be converted into normalized numeric values and analyzed prior to the development of deterministic or stochastic deterioration models. The prevailing approach for explanatory variable selection is to use expert opinion solicited from experienced engineers. This may introduce human influenced biases into the deterioration modeling process. A framework using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized regression and covariance analysis are combined to compensate for this potential bias. Additionally, the cross validation analysis and solution path is used as a standard for the selection of minimum number of explanatory variables. The proposed method is demonstrated through the creation of deterministic deterioration models for deck, superstructure, and substructure for Wyoming bridges and compared to explanatory variables using the expert selection method. The comparison shows a significant decrease in error using the presented framework based on the L2 relative error norm. The final chapter presents a new method to develop stochastic deterioration models using logistic regression. The relative importance amongst explanatory variables is used to develop a classification tree for Wyoming bridges. The bridges in a subset are commonly associated with several explanatory variables, so that the deterioration models can be more representative and accurate than using a single explanatory variable. The logistic regression is used to introduce the stochastic contribution into the deterioration models. In order to avoid missing data problems, the binary categories condition rating, either remaining the same or decreased, are considered for logistic regression. The probability of changes in bridges’ condition rating is obtained and the averages for same condition ratings are used to create transition probability matrix for each age group. The deterioration model based on Markov chain are developed for Wyoming bridges and compared with the previous model based on percentage prediction and optimization approach. The prediction error is analyzed, which demonstrates the considerable performance of the proposed method and is suitable for relatively small data samples.

Σε πολλά προβλήματα υπάρχει η ανάγκη να ασχοληθούμε ταυτόχρονα με την μελέτη δύο μεταβλητών ώστε να δούμε αν υπάρχει αλληλεξάρτηση μεταξύ τους, καθώς και να εντοπίσουμε την σχέση που εκφράζει αυτήν την αλληλεξάρτηση. Η σχέση αυτή ονομάζεται εξίσωση παλινδρόμησης και περιγράφει τον τρόπο αλληλεξάρτησης των μεταβλητών, τον κανόνα δηλαδή που διαμορφώνει τις τιμές της μιας μεταβλητής από τις τιμές της άλλης. Η πρώτη θα ονομάζεται ανεξάρτητη (ερμηνευτική) και η δεύτερη που οι τιμές της θα καθορίζονται από αυτές της πρώτης εξαρτημένη(ερμηνευόμενη). Κάποιες φορές οι ερμηνευτικές μεταβλητές που χρησιμοποιούμε είναι ποιοτικές και υπάρχουν τρόποι ποσοτικού προσδιορισμού των κατηγοριών μιας ποιοτικής μεταβλητής. Η μελέτη αυτή έχει ως στόχο την διερεύνηση της σχέσης του φύλου του μαθητή με τις επιδόσεις του στα μαθηματικά, ώστε να αναλυθούν οι διαφορές που εμφανίζονται μεταξύ των δυο φύλων. Για τον σκοπό αυτό θα χρησιμοποιηθούν γραμμικά μοντέλα, όπου όμως η ερμηνευτική μεταβλητή(το φύλο) είναι ποιοτική. Θα γίνει ποσοτικός προσδιορισμός των κατηγοριών της με την χρήση δύο τιμών: 0 αν είναι κορίτσι, 1 αν είναι αγόρι. Ο πληθυσμός της έρευνας αποτελείται από μαθητές γυμνασίου της ορεινής Αχαΐας που άρχισαν και τελείωσαν το γυμνάσιο στο συγκεκριμένο σχολείο. Για κάθε μαθητή έχει καταγραφεί από την καρτέλα του για κάθε τάξη η επίδοση στα μαθηματικά, στη γλώσσα, η συνολική επίδοση και το φύλο. / In many problems there is a need to simultaneously study two variables in order to see if there is interdependence between them and as well as to identify the equation that expresses this interdependence. This equation is called the regression equation and describes the way that these variables are interdependent. The first variable will be called independent (explanatory) and the second one, whose values are determined by the values of the first, will be called dependent (interpreted). In some cases the explanatory variables we use are qualitative and there are ways of quantifying the categories of a qualitative variable. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the sex of a student and his or hers performance in mathematics, in order to analyze the differences between the two sexes. For this purpose linear models will be used, where the interpretative variable (sex) is qualitative. We will quantify the categories with the use of two values: 0 if it's a girl and 1 if it's a boy. The survey population is consisted of students of a high school located in mountainous Achaia that started and finished studying at this particular school. For each student we have retrieved the performance in mathematics course, language course, overall performance and gender for each year studying in that school.

Quel impératif pousse Guilloux à se tourner vers les autres? Provient-il d'un appel au sentiment ? D'un appel à la raison ? Est-il la réponse à une éthique ? Pourquoi cette nécessité de rendre la vie valable ? La valeur d'un homme se juge d'aprés ses actes semble dire Guilloux. Qu'est-ce qu'écrire en regard de l'action ? Comment écrire dans un monde en guerre ? L'écriture peut-elle être agissante ? Guilloux a voulu partager ses interrogations avec ses lecteurs, esquisser tous les cheminements possibles jusqu'à la contradiction. D'abord, montrer le processus de mythification entourant les actions des hommes qui ont précédé Guilloux dans cette vie. Ceux d'avant savaient agir ensemble et pour le bien de tous, ce savoir s'est perdu laissant l'individu seul face à ses doutes. Les tourments qui agitent le début du XXème siècle n'ont fait qu'exacerber le questionnement existentiel. Les divers degrés de responsabilité des hommes se dévoilent ainsi dans leurs manières de se conduire vis-à-vis d'autrui, autant d'engagements concrets ou de retraits qui attestent de l'humanité ou de l'inhumanité: ? Trop et pas assez d'intelligence ? trop et pas assez d'amour ?. Ni la famille, ni la société, jaugée au travers de ses institutions, l'école, la justice, le clergé, ne répondent plus à l'exigence d'équité. Alors c'est aux hommes de s'unir. Agir, pour Guilloux, semble une forme de révolte et d'indignation contre la souffrance et l'injustice. Lutter, c'est aussi veiller sur la vie des autres. En refusant toutes compromissions, les personnages que Guilloux met en scène voient leur champ d'action se réduire à l'action humanitaire, quant à l'auteur lui revient le devoir de témoigner. Il se lance alors dans une écriture labyrinthique, un incessant jeu de miroir qui rapproche les hommes les plus différents : l'homme d'action, l'homme de lettres, l'homme militant, l'homme pas cru, l'homme en difficulté, l'homme perdu? chacun explore, estime, selon son itinéraire, la valeur accordée à sa vie et à celles des autres, hanté toujours par le devoir et la volonté de changer le monde / What is writing compared to action ? How to write in a state of war ? Guilloux wanted to share his ethical questioning with his readers, try every possible ways to the point of contradiction. First, he tried to show the mythification process of the people who lived before Guilloux's lifetime. The people who lived in days of old knew how to act together, this knowledge is now lost and individuals remain all alone facing their doubts. The troubles of the beginning of the 20th century could but magnify the existencial questioning. The different degrees of responsibility of the people highlight their commitments or retreats and give evidence of the humanity or the inhumanity. It is now up to men to unite against injustice. Acting to Guilloux is a form of revolt. Guilloux's characters refuse to compromise themselves and as a consequence their field of action becomes barely humaniatrian. The author has the duty to give his own account

Examensarbetet använder generaliserade linjära modeller för att identifiera och analysera enhetsspecifika egenskaper som påverkar risken för operativa förluster. Företag exponeras sällan mot operativa förluster vilket gör att det finns lite information om dessa förluster. De generaliserade linjära modellerna använder statistiska metoder som gör det möjligt att analysera all tillgänglig interndata trots att den är begränsad. Dessutom möjliggör metoden att analysera frekvensen av förlusterna samt magnituden av förlusterna var för sig. Det är fördelaktigt att göra två separata analyser, oberoende av varandra, för att identifiera vilka enhetsspecifika egenskaper som påverkar förlustfrekvensen respektive förlustmagnituden. För att modellera frekvensen av förlusterna används en Poissonfördelning. För att modellera magnituden av förlusterna används en Tweediefördelning som baseras på en semiparametrisk fördelning. Frekvens- och magnitudmodellen kombineras till en gemensam modell för att analysera vad som påverkar den totala kostnaden för operativa förluster. Resultatet visar att enhetens region, inkomst per tjänstgjord timme, storlek, internbetyg och erfarenhet hos personalen påverkar kostnaden för operativa förluster. / The objective of this Master’s Thesis is to identify and analyze explanatory variables that affect operational losses. This is achieved by applying Generalized Linear Models and selecting a number of explanatory variables that are based on the company’s unit attributes. An operational loss is a rare event and as a result, there is a limited amount of internal data. Generalized Linear Models uses a range of statistical tools to give reliable estimates although the data is scarce.  By performing two separate and independent analyses, it is possible to identify and analyze various unit attributes and their impact of the loss frequency and loss severity. When modeling the loss frequency, a Poisson distribution is applied. When modeling the loss severity, a Tweedie distribution that is based on a semi-parametric distribution is applied. To analyze the total cost as a consequence of operational losses for a single unit with certain attributes, the frequency model and the severity model are combined to form one common model. The result from the analysis shows that the geographical location of the unit, the size of the unit, the income per working hour, the working experience of the employees and the internal rating of the unit are all attributes that affects the cost of operational losses.

Property market forecasts play a crucial role in modern real estate valuation methodologies and, consequently, flawed forecasts can have adverse impacts on the accuracy of valuations. This thesis identifies property industry inconsistencies in the formulation and application of office rent forecasts adopted in discounted cash flow (DCF) studies used to assess the value of commercial properties and the viability of proposed projects. Existing research on commercial property cycles and office property market modelling is examined in order to identify the dominant market drivers adopted by researchers. Forecasting techniques are also explored towards specifying space and rent models for the Brisbane CBD office market using the perceived dominant drivers as explanatory variables. Surveys of property valuers and developers are undertaken to underpin the selection of these variables. The implications of varying rent forecasts applied in DCF based valuation assessments are tested through the use of a case study involving four Brisbane office buildings. Innovative research is conducted through adopting geographic information system supported land use and historical valuation studies to delineate market precincts within the Brisbane CBD. The rent model is then re-estimated using precinct based office rent data to allow the generation of forecasts for the individual precincts. Out-of-sample accuracy test results for the precinct forecasts are compared with the results produced by the model specified using whole-of-city data. The literature reviews, surveys and model testing determine a relatively consistent range of dominant explanatory variables applicable to office markets. The case study, in a local context, confirms that varying forecasts do have a significant impact on property valuations. Tests of the forecast results generated by the Brisbane CBD model provide some evidence that more plausible office rent forecasts stem from the use of market models as compared with solely applying professional judgement based forecasts. Subject to data availability limitations, the precinct based rent model is found to produce rent forecasts superior to those generated by the whole-of-city model. Finally, the thesis makes a range of industry recommendations towards enhancing forecasts and recommendations are also made for potential future research projects.

Résumé: But : Les objectifs étaient de 1) décrire les profils de force musculaires aux membres inférieurs (MIs) et les capacités aux déplacements des personnes présentant les phénotypes adulte classique (DM1-AC) et adulte tardif (DM1-AT) de la dystrophie myotonique de type 1 (DM1), et 2) d’explorer l’influence de la faiblesse des MIs sur les capacités aux déplacements dans cette population. Méthode : Cette étude consiste en une analyse secondaire de données issues d’une plus large recherche qui visait à identifier les déterminants de la participation sociale et de la qualité de vie de personnes atteintes de DM1 (n = 158 DM1-AC et n = 42 DM1-AT). La force de quatre groupes musculaires des MIs a été mesurée à l’aide du bilan musculaire manuel (BMM) et du bilan musculaire quantitatif (BMQ) par dynamométrie manuelle. Les capacités aux déplacements ont été évaluées à l’aide de tests standardisés (échelle d’équilibre de Berg, vitesse de marche et Timed Up & Go). Résultats : Le phénotype DM1-AT présente moins de faiblesse et d’incapacités que le phénotype DM1-AC (p < 0,001 – 0,020). Le BMM ne détecte pas de faiblesse chez le phénotype DM1-AT mais des pertes de force au BMQ de 12 % à 20 % ont été identifiées chez ce phénotype, excepté pour les fléchisseurs du genou, entrainant des limitations aux déplacements chez 22 % à 48 % de ces individus. Dans le phénotype DM1-AC, l’atteinte musculaire était légèrement plus importante en distal qu’en proximal. Selon ces résultats, les phénotypes DM1-AC et DM1-AT présentent des portraits distincts et les données relatives à chacun devraient être analysées séparément. Une progression générale de la faiblesse au BMQ et des scores aux tests fonctionnels a été observée en fonction des cotes de l’échelle Muscular Impairment Rating Scale (MIRS). Un déficit de force au BMQ (excepté pour les fléchisseurs du genou) et des incapacités fonctionnelles ont aussi été observés dès les premières cotes de la MIRS. Finalement, les dorsifléchisseurs de la cheville et les extenseurs du genou semblent être de bons indicateurs de la fonction des membres inférieurs en DM1. Conclusion : Cette étude a permis de dresser un portrait des atteintes de la force musculaire aux MIs et des capacités fonctionnelles liées aux déplacements pour chacun des phénotypes DM1-AC et DM1-AT de la DM1, ainsi que d’explorer la contribution de la faiblesse des groupes musculaires évaluées sur les capacités aux déplacements dans cette population. Ces résultats contribueront à mieux déterminer les cibles d’évaluation et d’interventions en réadaptation et à mieux définir le processus d’évaluation dans le contexte des essais thérapeutiques à venir. / Abstract: Purpose: The purposes of this study were 1) to describe lower limbs muscle strength and mobility capacities, and 2) to explore the respective contribution of lower limb muscle weaknesses on mobility in the adult and late-onset phenotypes of myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). Methods: This study is a secondary analysis of part of the results of a larger study, whose purpose was to identify social participation and quality-of-life determinants in 200 DM1 patients (158 adult and 42 late-onset). The strength of four lower limb muscle groups was assessed using manual muscle testing (MMT) and handheld dynamometry quantitative muscle testing (QMT). Mobility capacities were assessed using standardized tests (Berg balance scale, 10 Meter Walk Test and Timed Up & Go). Results: Although the late-onset phenotype showed less weaknesses and mobility limitations than the adult phenotype (p <0.001-0.020), and although MMT showed no weakness in the late-onset phenotype, quantitative strength losses of 12-20% were measured in this phenotype, with the exception of the knee flexors. These weaknesses led to mobility limitations in 22-48% of participants with the late-onset phenotype. In the adult phenotype, muscle strength impairment was slightly more important distally than proximally (2-2.5/10 and 5.8-8.2% for MMT and QMT, respectively) (p <0.001-0.002). According to those results, the adult and late-onset phenotypes show different profiles of lower limb impairment, and should not be pooled for data analysis. A general progression of quantitative muscle weakness and of mobility scores was observed according to the Muscular Impairment Rating Scale (MIRS) classification. Quantitative weaknesses, with the exception of the knee flexors, and mobility limitations were observed from the first MIRS grades. QMT is therefore definitely a more effective tool for measuring weakness in DM1. Finally, ankle dorsiflexors and knee extensors seem to be good indicators of lower limb function in DM1. Conclusion: This study allowed a better characterization of lower limb weaknesses and mobility limitations in the adult and late-onset phenotypes of DM1, and explored the contribution of lower limb weaknesses on mobility capacities in this population. These results will be useful for developing more specific rehabilitation programs and for optimizing the evaluation of these impairments in the context of the upcoming therapeutic trials. Keywords: Myotonic dystrophy type 1, phenotypes, muscle strength, mobility capacities, lower limbs, explanatory variables, physiotherapy.

Le but de ce mémoire de maîtrise est de décrire les propriétés de la loi double Pareto-lognormale, de montrer comment on peut introduire des variables explicatives dans le modèle et de présenter son large potentiel d'applications dans le domaine de la science actuarielle et de la finance. Tout d'abord, nous donnons la définition de la loi double Pareto-lognormale et présentons certaines de ses propriétés basées sur les travaux de Reed et Jorgensen (2004). Les paramètres peuvent être estimés en utilisant la méthode des moments ou le maximum de vraisemblance. Ensuite, nous ajoutons une variable explicative à notre modèle. La procédure d'estimation des paramètres de ce mo-\\dèle est également discutée. Troisièmement, des applications numériques de notre modèle sont illustrées et quelques tests statistiques utiles sont effectués. / The purpose of this Master's thesis is to describe the double Pareto-lognormal distribution, show how the model can be extended by introducing explanatory variables in the model and present its large potential of applications in actuarial science and finance. First, we give the definition of the double Pareto-lognormal distribution and present some of its properties based on the work of Reed and Jorgensen (2004). The parameters could be estimated by using the method of moments or maximum likelihood. Next, we add an explanatory variable to our model. The procedure of estimation for this model is also discussed. Finally, some numerical applications of our model are illustrated and some useful statistical tests are conducted.

Nous proposons dans cette thèse la méthode STREE de construction d'arbres de décision avec des données symboliques. Ce type de données permet de caractériser des individus de niveau supérieur qui peuvent être des classes ou catégories d’individus ou des concepts au sens des treillis de Galois. Les valeurs des variables, appelées variables symboliques, peuvent être des ensembles, des intervalles ou des histogrammes. Le critère de partitionnement récursif est une combinaison d'un critère par rapport aux variables explicatives et d'un critère par rapport à la variable à expliquer. Le premier critère est la variation de la variance des variables explicatives. Quand il est appliqué seul, STREE correspond à une méthode descendante de classification non supervisée. Le second critère permet de construire un arbre de décision. Il s'agit de la variation de l'indice de Gini si la variable à expliquer est nominale et de la variation de la variance si la variable à expliquer est continue ou bien est une variable symbolique. Les données classiques sont un cas particulier de données symboliques sur lesquelles STREE peut aussi obtenir de bons résultats. Il en ressort de bonnes performances sur plusieurs jeux de données UCI par rapport à des méthodes classiques de Data Mining telles que CART, C4.5, Naive Bayes, KNN, MLP et SVM. STREE permet également la construction d'ensembles d'arbres de décision symboliques soit par bagging soit par boosting. L'utilisation de tels ensembles a pour but de pallier les insuffisances liées aux arbres de décisions eux-mêmes et d'obtenir une décision finale qui est en principe plus fiable que celle obtenue à partir d'un arbre unique. / In this thesis, we propose the STREE methodology for the construction of decision trees with symbolic data. This data type allows us to characterize individuals of higher levels which may be classes or categories of individuals or concepts within the meaning of the Galois lattice. The values of the variables, called symbolic variables, may be sets, intervals or histograms. The criterion of recursive partitioning is a combination of a criterion related to the explanatory variables and a criterion related to the dependant variable. The first criterion is the variation of the variance of the explanatory variables. When it is applied alone, STREE acts as a top-down clustering methodology. The second criterion enables us to build a decision tree. This criteron is expressed as the variation of the Gini index if the dependant variable is nominal, and as the variation of the variance if thedependant variable is continuous or is a symbolic variable. Conventional data are a special case of symbolic data on which STREE can also get good results. It has performed well on multiple sets of UCI data compared to conventional methodologies of Data Mining such as CART, C4.5, Naive Bayes, KNN, MLP and SVM. The STREE methodology also allows for the construction of ensembles of symbolic decision trees either by bagging or by boosting. The use of such ensembles is designed to overcome shortcomings related to the decisions trees themselves and to obtain a finaldecision that is in principle more reliable than that obtained from a single tree.