The study examines the influence (effects) of export diversification in defining economic growth differences across Africa and it tests its robustness in different samples and estimation techniques compared to other variables of trade namely, trade openness and export growth. It applies an augmented Solow growth model in a cross-section dataset for the period of 1998 to 2009 with all three trade variables tested under a single framework. It is found that countries with more diversified exports generally experienced faster economic growth; therefore, variation in export diversification levels explains the observed growth differences across Africa. The results show that both export diversification and export growth are robust determinants of economic growth rates in the region while trade openness is not. The findings have a strong bearing on trade policy by emphasising the importance of more diversified exports to mitigate the negative impacts of global economic shocks to economic growth in the region.

Growth induced export has become a major concern for policy makers to transform and upgrade the export composition to achieve economic growth objectives; in this respect, export diversification become at the heart of growth induced export narrative. Nevertheless, this study attempts to find relationship between export diversification and economic growth. To investigate this relationship, a cross-section method is used with averaged data from the period 1991 to 2009 of 41 sub Saharan Africa countries; moreover, diagnostic tests were conducted to ensure the robustness of the model. The empirical result of this study shows positive correlation between export diversification and economic growth which can be concluded that export diversification promotes economic growth.

A common finding in the international trade literature is that economic integration leads to export diversification. By documenting a positive link between joining the European Economic and Monetary Union and bilateral export concentration, the leading essay shows that this is not always the case. Using a panel data approach, I find that exports between the Eurozone members are on average more concentrated than those among countries which do not share the euro. Central to this outcome is that some economic integration agreements, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union, may lead to a drop in not only trade but horizontal FDI costs as well. Theoretically, the results can be explained by the substitutability between exporting and horizontal FDI within a two-sector, two-firm type model which allows for sectoral trade cost heterogeneity. Since the early 1970s, a series of international environmental agreements (IEAs) were signed, ratified, and enforced throughout the developed and developing nations. Regarding IEAs as potential barriers to trade, the second essay seeks to quantify their impact on industry-level exports by using a gravity regression approach. I proceed by classifying industries into dirty and clean based on their average emission intensities and find that the ratification of IEAs is associated with a significant reduction in export flows. The decrease is more pronounced for industries which are classified as dirty or for those which are characterized by high emission intensities per unit of output. Additionally, climate change IEAs bring about a compositional shift towards cleaner exports. Lastly, climate change and acid rain IEAs are found to engender leakage effects. No such evidence is recovered for ozone depletion accords. The third essay adds to the literature on the Kyoto protocol and the carbon content of bilateral trade. It does so by analyzing the effect of ratifying the Kyoto protocol on exports, the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of exports, and the CO2 emissions embodied in exports within a novel dataset of 149 countries. For parties that took on binding emission caps, the ratification of Kyoto protocol leads to (i) lower CO2 emissions embodied in exports, (ii) lower CO2 emission intensities, but (iii) higher overall exports. For the same group of countries, a year-by-year analysis underlines a permanent decline in both the CO2 emission intensity and the CO2 content of their exports. Furthermore, the analysis also points out to a short-run decline in exports. In the long run, however, exports are estimated to recover. Also, the commitment type or whether a party was designated as a transition economy at the time of ratification are found to shape the above three outcomes.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine Turkey&rsquo / s export competitiveness in the first 15 members of the European Union (EU-15 market) against non-EU-15 competitors. The study covers the recent period since the Customs Union agreement signed between Turkey and the EU at the end of 1995. Turkey&rsquo / s position in the EU-15 market is analyzed in detail by focusing upon major dimensions of export competitiveness / such as &lsquo / export similarity&rsquo / , &lsquo / export diversification&rsquo / , &lsquo / intensive and extensive margins&rsquo / , &lsquo / revealed comparative advantages&rsquo / , &lsquo / dynamic market positioning&rsquo / and &lsquo / competitive threat&rsquo / . We use various indexes from the literature and develop some original indexes as our own contributions. In terms the subject-matter, time dimension and data-detail of our study, all indexes utilized in this thesis are applied to Turkey&rsquo / s case for the first time. Examining price and quantity differences across countries and within each industry, Turkey&rsquo / s competitive position in the EU-15 market is analyzed as compared to 30 countries for more than 3000 export-product groups classified according to their technological characteristics. Based on the results, suggestions at the levels of countries, products and technological categories are made for Turkey to improve its export strategy in terms of seizing the existing but unexploited opportunities in the EU-15 market against its competitors. Policy possibilities are also discussed for directing Turkey&rsquo / s competitiveness towards higher value-added products in a rational and strategic way.

Magister Commercii - MCom / The objective of this study is to investigate the empirical relationship between exports and economic growth in order to ascertain whether the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid in the case of South Africa. This study has not only focused on sectoral exports for the period 1990-2011; but it has also examined total exports for the period extending from 1970 to 2011. Using quarterly data and time series econometric techniques of co-integration and Granger-causality tests over the two set of periods, the key findings of the study are as follows: (i) At the aggregate level (using total exports): the technique of co-integration suggests that total exports and GDP moved together in the long-run, though deviations from the steady state might happen in the short-run. Furthermore, Granger causality tests inferred from the Vector Error Correction model reveal that the direction of causality between export and GDP growth is bidirectional. (ii) At the sectoral level (using the main component of exports): export-growth link emerges as a long-run behavioural relationship since a co-integrating relation was found among output and agricultural, manufactured and mining exports. This relationship demonstrates that manufactured exports have the greatest positive impact on output growth. (iii) Sectoral level Granger-causality tests based on ECM reveal the existence of a long run causality running from manufactured exports to GDP; whereas the short-run causality runs from manufactured and mining exports to GDP. However, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger test confirms only short-run causality from manufactured exports to GDP. In both cases, there is evidence of a uni-directional causality from exports to GDP.The above results show that the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid for South Africa. This implies that exports, particularly manufactured and mining exports play a key role in driving economic growth. Hence, the key policy implication of these results is that, measures which aim at stimulating production for exports and shifting the content of exports will meaningfully contribute to the improvement of GDP growth and employment prospects in South Africa.

Les changements majeurs intervenus dans le commerce international correspondant à la participation importante des pays émergents au marché mondial remettent en cause la perception traditionnelle du commerce. Au lieu de se spécialiser dans la production pour laquelle ils disposent d’un avantage comparatif, les pays en développement considèrent la diversification des exportations comme un moyen alternatif d’améliorer la croissance économique et de réduire les chocs négatifs externes. Par ailleurs, la crise financière mondiale de 2008 soulève l’examen de la relation entre le taux de change réel (TCR) et le commerce international. Dans une telle perspective, cette thèse tente d’étudier dans un premier temps le lien de causalité entre la diversification des exportations et le TCR dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire. Tout d’abord, nous trouvons une causalité bidirectionnelle entre nos deux variables d’intérêt. En décomposant leurs exportations par destination, le même lien bidirectionnel est enregistré dans le cas du commerce Sud-Nord, tandis que la causalité unidirectionnelle allant du TCR vers la diversification des exportations est marquée dans le commerce Sud-Sud.Deuxièmement, nous comparons cette relation entre deux groupes de pays, l’Asie vs. l’Amérique latine et l’effet de deux crises financières (en 1997 et 2008) sur ce lien. Nous montrons que, sans considération des crises financières, il existe une causalité bidirectionnelle pour les pays d’Amérique latine et la relation conventionnelle allant du TCR vers la diversification des exportations pour les pays asiatiques.Toutefois, en tenant en compte des crises financières, la causalité bidirectionnelle est fondée dans les deux sous-groupes.Troisièmement, nous abordons la question de l’effet de la diversification des exportations sur l’élasticité-prix des importations en comparant deux modèles d’intégration dans la région de l’Asie-Pacifique: les États-Unis avec le modèle d’intégration traditionnel, la Chine avec un modèle singulier d’intégration Sud-Sud. De manière générale, nous trouvons que l’élasticité-prix est négative pour les importations en provenance de la Chine et positive dans le cas des États-Unis. Lorsque leurs partenaires commerciaux réussissent à diversifier leurs destinations à l’exportation, les élasticités-prix des importations s’affaiblissent. Ces résultats questionnent la condition de Marshall-Lerner. Quatrièmement, pour étudier comment un pays pourrait diversifier ses exportations, nous examinons si un choc de change peut être un facteur promouvant la productivité des entreprises. En utilisant la méthode des différences de différences sur les données au niveau des firmes pour les secteurs industriels vietnamiens, nous avons découvert un effet positif d’une appréciation persistante du dong vietnamien sur la productivité des entreprises. Nous confirmons que la recherche et le développement (R&D) pourrait expliquer le mécanisme par lequel une appréciation améliore la productivité des entreprises. / Major changes in international trade related to the crucial participation of emerging countries inworld markets have been challenging the traditional perception of trade. Instead of only specializing inthe products in which they have a comparative advantage, developing countries consider export diversificationas an alternative way to improve economic growth and reduce external adverse shocks. Besides,the global financial crisis in 2008 raised the need for an examination of the relationship between realexchange rate (RER) and trade.In this line, this thesis attempts to investigate the causal link between export diversification andRER in the middle-income countries. Firstly, we find a bidirectional causality between our two variablesof interest. By differentiating the countries’ exports by destination, the same bidirectional link isrecorded in the case of South-North trade, while a unidirectional causality running from RER to exportdiversification is recorded in the South-South trade.Secondly, we compare this relationship between two groups of countries, Asia versus Latin America,and the effect of the two financial crises (in 1997 and 2008) on this link. We show that, regardlessof the financial crises, the bidirectional causality exists for the Latin American countries and the conventionallink from RER to export diversification for Asian countries. However, when accounted forfinancial crises, the bidirectional causality is found in both subgroups.Thirdly, we address the question of the effect of export diversification on price elasticity of importsin two models of integration in the Pacific-Rim, that is: the traditional model (the US) and a new modelof integration (China). We find consistent negative price elasticity of imports for China and a positive onein the case of the US. When their trading partners are successful in diversifying their export destinations,import price elasticity of either China or the US becomes very low. This result challenges our awarenessof the Marshall-Lerner condition.Fourthly, to investigate how a country could diversify her exports, we look at real exchange rateshocks as a factor that may promote firm productivity. Using the difference-in-differences methodologyon firm-level data for Vietnamese manufacturing, we find a positive effect of a persistent real appreciationin the Vietnamese dong on firm productivity. We note that research and development (R&D) could explainthe mechanism by which real appreciation improves firm productivity.