The United States is the leading producer and exporter of corn and soybeans in the world. The United States exports 20% of the world’s corn and 30% of soybeans in a typical year (USDA, ERS). The U.S., being the top producer and exporter of these commodities, is also confronting major rivals such as Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine, which are increasing their exports and causing the U.S. to lose some of its market share. In order to stop this decline in market share, the U.S. can adopt and implement different policies to manage resources and employ advanced technology more effectively. In this study, we empirically estimate the export demand function of U.S. corn and soybeans to the top four export destinations: China, Japan, European Union, and Mexico in the current context of energy and agriculture linkages and production of ethanol from corn. A log-linear, panel data equation is used to estimate the U.S. corn and soybeans export demand function. Own price, cross price, income and exchange rate elasticities are estimated econometrically. Data for the U.S. and its top four importer countries were gathered for the 1980-2012 period. A Hausman test implies that a random effects estimator is better for the estimations. Elasticity analysis indicates that U.S. corn demand is elastic to own price, cross price, income and poultry inventory, while inelastic to real exchange rate and pig inventory. The positive cross price elasticity reveals that corn and soybeans are substitutes in these countries. Conversely elasticity analysis for the U.S. soybean demand shows elastic cross price, real exchange rate, and pig and poultry inventory effects, while inelastic own price and income effects. Consequently, for the U.S. to gain more international market share, U.S. corn and soybean producers need to take advantage of their advanced technology and high management skills to increase quality and have more competitive pricing compared to rivals. The U.S. can gain more market share by employing better regulation to increase the quality of products, and provide incentives to U.S. farmers and exporters that could help boost their advantages in a highly competitive international environment. Higher quality and more product differentiation could help in this regard. This could help U.S. farmers increase exports to currently existing foreign destinations and access new markets, to expand market shares.

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Exports are an important source of income for Sweden. They are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as GDP. This paper examines the elasticity of Swedish export to changes in the GDP of Sweden’s 25 most important export partners. The sensitivity to changes in GDP, the elasticity, can be different for different goods. Therefore, we examine export elasticities for five different commodity groups, which include durable as well as non-durable goods. Moreover, special focus is put on the trade relationship between Sweden and Germany in order to see if their long common trade history has any impact on the elasticity of Swedish exports to Germany. The analysis is based on an export demand function that links exports to GDP and geographical distance. We include dummy variables in our regression model to control for EU-membership and common borders.       For Swedish exports to Germany, we find that exports of food and live animals are least elastic, whereas exports of machinery and transport equipment are most elastic. This is coherent with previous empirical findings about demand elasticities of non-durable and durable goods. We find that exports in two out of five commodity groups are unit elastic. This means that when German GDP increases by one percent, Sweden’s export to Germany in these commodity groups also grows by approximately one percent. Thus, Sweden is not able to capture additional profit through over proportional increases in exports to Germany. For Swedish exports to its 25 most important trading partners, on average, we find that exports of manufactured goods as well as machinery and transport equipment are the least elastic exports. This gives them the lowest growth potential.

Denna uppsats undersöker hur efterfrågan av Chilenskt vin påverkas av importländernas inkomst, relativpriset på Chilenskt vin i förhållande till genomsnittspriset på den totala importen av vin, avståndet mellan handelsparterna och inhemsk vinproduktion i importlandet. Studien innefattar 15 OECD länder mellan åren 1998 och 2002. En utökad exportefterfrågefunktion ligger till grund för den empiriska undersökningen och resultaten visar signifikanta variabler med förväntade tecken. Vidare utvidgas ekvationen för att beakta tidseffekter, nämligen genom att inkludera genomsnittsvärdet på den beroende variabeln och dummy variabler för treårsperioder. Genom detta stiger förklaringsgraden i regressionen från 27,8 till 58,1 procent. De estimerade långsiktiga effekterna i efterfrågan för Chilenskt vin visar att en ökning med en procent av importörernas inkomst också ökar efterfrågan på Chilenskt vin med ungefär 0,8 procent. En lika stor ökning i relativpriset minskar efterfrågan med ungefär 0,3 procent. Ökat avstånd mellan handelsparterna med 1000 kilometer minskar efterfrågan med 16,6 procent. Om importören är ett vinproducerande land är efterfrågan 85 procent lägre än om landet inte producerar vin. Resultaten stämmer överens med teorierna om exportefterfrågan men skillnader mellan vinproducerande länder är i vissa fall stora. En anledning för detta kan vara skillnader i produktionsvolym av vin mellan länder, en annan att det finns starka kulturella associationer till inhemska produkter som gör att konsumenter föredrar inhemska produkter framför utländska. / This thesis examines how the export demand for Chilean wine is affected by importers income, relative prices, distance between trading partners and do-mestic wine production between 1988 and 2002 in 15 OECD countries. The empirical test is based on an extended export demand function, and the results show significant estimates with expected signs. Adjusting for time pe-riod specific effects by including dummy variables for three year periods and running the regression on the average values of Chilean export of wine in-creased the coefficient of determination from 27.8 to 58.1 percent. The long run effect on demand for Chilean wine indicates that a one percent increase in importers’ income raises demand for Chilean wine with about 0.8 percent. A similar increase in the relative price of Chilean wine to the world price of wine decreases demand with about 0.3 percent. Increasing distance with 1000 kilo-metres decreases demand for exports with approximately 16.6 percent. If the country is a wine producer demand is about 85 percent lower compared to non producing countries. The results are in line with the theories on export demand, however among the wine producing countries there are large differences among countries in their demand for Chilean wine. One reason could be different volume of own pro-duction, another cultural associations to domestic products making preferences biased towards the domestic variety.

<p>Denna uppsats undersöker hur efterfrågan av Chilenskt vin påverkas av importländernas inkomst, relativpriset på Chilenskt vin i förhållande till genomsnittspriset på den totala importen av vin, avståndet mellan handelsparterna och inhemsk vinproduktion i importlandet. Studien innefattar 15 OECD länder mellan åren 1998 och 2002.</p><p>En utökad exportefterfrågefunktion ligger till grund för den empiriska undersökningen och resultaten visar signifikanta variabler med förväntade tecken. Vidare utvidgas ekvationen för att beakta tidseffekter, nämligen genom att inkludera genomsnittsvärdet på den beroende variabeln och dummy variabler för treårsperioder. Genom detta stiger förklaringsgraden i regressionen från 27,8 till 58,1 procent. De estimerade långsiktiga effekterna i efterfrågan för Chilenskt vin visar att en ökning med en procent av importörernas inkomst också ökar efterfrågan på Chilenskt vin med ungefär 0,8 procent. En lika stor ökning i relativpriset minskar efterfrågan med ungefär 0,3 procent. Ökat avstånd mellan handelsparterna med 1000 kilometer minskar efterfrågan med 16,6 procent. Om importören är ett vinproducerande land är efterfrågan 85 procent lägre än om landet inte producerar vin.</p><p>Resultaten stämmer överens med teorierna om exportefterfrågan men skillnader mellan vinproducerande länder är i vissa fall stora. En anledning för detta kan vara skillnader i produktionsvolym av vin mellan länder, en annan att det finns starka kulturella associationer till inhemska produkter som gör att konsumenter föredrar inhemska produkter framför utländska.</p> / <p>This thesis examines how the export demand for Chilean wine is affected by importers income, relative prices, distance between trading partners and do-mestic wine production between 1988 and 2002 in 15 OECD countries.</p><p>The empirical test is based on an extended export demand function, and the results show significant estimates with expected signs. Adjusting for time pe-riod specific effects by including dummy variables for three year periods and running the regression on the average values of Chilean export of wine in-creased the coefficient of determination from 27.8 to 58.1 percent. The long run effect on demand for Chilean wine indicates that a one percent increase in importers’ income raises demand for Chilean wine with about 0.8 percent. A similar increase in the relative price of Chilean wine to the world price of wine decreases demand with about 0.3 percent. Increasing distance with 1000 kilo-metres decreases demand for exports with approximately 16.6 percent. If the country is a wine producer demand is about 85 percent lower compared to non producing countries.</p><p>The results are in line with the theories on export demand, however among the wine producing countries there are large differences among countries in their demand for Chilean wine. One reason could be different volume of own pro-duction, another cultural associations to domestic products making preferences biased towards the domestic variety.</p>

<p>In this paper, the forecast performance of an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was compared against the forecast accuracy of a Vector error correction (VECM) model when computing out-of-sample forecasts for Swedish exports. The co-integrating relation used to estimate the error correction specification was based upon an economic theory for international trade suggesting that a long run equilibrium relation among the variables included in an export demand equation should exist. The results obtained provide evidence of a long run equilibrium relationship between the Swedish export volume and its main determinants. The models were estimated for manufactured goods using quarterly data for the period 1975-1999 and once estimated, the models were used to compute out-of-sample forecasts up to four-, eight- and twelve-quarters ahead for the Swedish export volume using both multi-step and one-step ahead forecast techniques. The main results suggest that the differences in forecasting ability between the two models are small, however according to the relevant evaluation criteria the unrestricted VAR model in general yields somewhat better forecast than the VECM model when forecasting Swedish exports over the chosen forecast horizons.</p>

A literatura é extensa no que se refere a estimações de modelos de oferta e demanda para exportações, mas poucos consideram que a resposta em exportações a variações na taxa de câmbio possa ser lenta e assimétrica. Dixit (1989) afirma que a firma que deseja passar a atuar no mercado externo ou deixar tal mercado deve incorrer em custos irrecuperáveis. Além disso, políticas de wait and see fazem com que estas não mudem seu estado (atuantes ou não) imediatamente quando variações significativas na taxa de câmbio acontecem. Tais fatores criam o fenômeno da hysteresis econômica, caracterizado pela forte não-linearidade de uma variável, gerando assimetria dependendo do estado e da magnitude do choque em tal. Assim, propõe-se neste trabalho uma forma alternativa de se captar tal efeito, via modelo de cointegração com transição suavizada, desenvolvido em Saikkonen e Choi (2004). Os resultados encontrados apontam para a evidência do efeito histerético, apresentando tal modelagem não-linear para quatro dos dezesseis setores industriais estudados do Brasil. / The literature is large on what refers to estimation of export supply and demand models, but just a few consider that the response on exports to variations on the exchange rate can be slow and asymmetric. Dixit (1989) says that the firm who wishes to operate on the foreign market or leave it must incur on sunk costs. Besides, wait-and-see policies makes the firm to remain it state unaltered (operating or not) immediately when significant variations on the exchange rate happens. This factor creates the phenomena called economic hysteresis, representing a strong non-linearity of a variable, generating asymmetries depending on the state and magnitude of the shock on the variable. Thus, its proposed on this work an alternative form to capture this effect, by smooth transition cointegration model, developed on Saikkonen and Choi (2004). The results indicate to the evidence of the hysteretic effect, presenting non-linear modeling for four of sixteen industrial sectors studied of Brazil.

In this paper, the forecast performance of an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was compared against the forecast accuracy of a Vector error correction (VECM) model when computing out-of-sample forecasts for Swedish exports. The co-integrating relation used to estimate the error correction specification was based upon an economic theory for international trade suggesting that a long run equilibrium relation among the variables included in an export demand equation should exist. The results obtained provide evidence of a long run equilibrium relationship between the Swedish export volume and its main determinants. The models were estimated for manufactured goods using quarterly data for the period 1975-1999 and once estimated, the models were used to compute out-of-sample forecasts up to four-, eight- and twelve-quarters ahead for the Swedish export volume using both multi-step and one-step ahead forecast techniques. The main results suggest that the differences in forecasting ability between the two models are small, however according to the relevant evaluation criteria the unrestricted VAR model in general yields somewhat better forecast than the VECM model when forecasting Swedish exports over the chosen forecast horizons.

A literatura é extensa no que se refere a estimações de modelos de oferta e demanda para exportações, mas poucos consideram que a resposta em exportações a variações na taxa de câmbio possa ser lenta e assimétrica. Dixit (1989) afirma que a firma que deseja passar a atuar no mercado externo ou deixar tal mercado deve incorrer em custos irrecuperáveis. Além disso, políticas de wait and see fazem com que estas não mudem seu estado (atuantes ou não) imediatamente quando variações significativas na taxa de câmbio acontecem. Tais fatores criam o fenômeno da hysteresis econômica, caracterizado pela forte não-linearidade de uma variável, gerando assimetria dependendo do estado e da magnitude do choque em tal. Assim, propõe-se neste trabalho uma forma alternativa de se captar tal efeito, via modelo de cointegração com transição suavizada, desenvolvido em Saikkonen e Choi (2004). Os resultados encontrados apontam para a evidência do efeito histerético, apresentando tal modelagem não-linear para quatro dos dezesseis setores industriais estudados do Brasil. / The literature is large on what refers to estimation of export supply and demand models, but just a few consider that the response on exports to variations on the exchange rate can be slow and asymmetric. Dixit (1989) says that the firm who wishes to operate on the foreign market or leave it must incur on sunk costs. Besides, wait-and-see policies makes the firm to remain it state unaltered (operating or not) immediately when significant variations on the exchange rate happens. This factor creates the phenomena called economic hysteresis, representing a strong non-linearity of a variable, generating asymmetries depending on the state and magnitude of the shock on the variable. Thus, its proposed on this work an alternative form to capture this effect, by smooth transition cointegration model, developed on Saikkonen and Choi (2004). The results indicate to the evidence of the hysteretic effect, presenting non-linear modeling for four of sixteen industrial sectors studied of Brazil.

The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of the US in the worldwide production and trade of pistachios, identify and estimate the major factors affecting export demand for US pistachios in 21 major markets, accounting for 78 percent of total US pistachio exports. The study estimated the impacts of US pistachio own price, cross price, importing markets’ GDP, real exchange rates and effect of food safety shocks. A panel data analysis was conducted using data from 1989 to 2009. A Houseman test indicated that the random effects estimator was the chosen estimator. Elasticity analysis indicated that US pistachio demand showed own price elastic, income elastic and real exchange rate elastic, while cross price and food safety shock inelastic. The paper also investigated effects of marketing orders in different industries to reinforce the findings by Alston et al. in 2005 on the Pistachio Order. The review concluded with a general positive effect. Consequently, to maintain international market share, US pistachio producers need to take advantage of their advanced technology and reputation for higher food safety standards, comply with regulations under the marketing order, focus on product diversification and find solutions to improve current food safety issues.