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Over the past half-century, Baltimore County, Maryland has experienced various policy measures that have shaped development patterns. This thesis analyzes three spatially explicit parcel-level models of residential development in Baltimore County to examine the effects of land-use regulations on multiple density classes from 1996 to 2008. The first model analyzes the entire county, while the second analyzes areas outside the county urban growth boundary, while the third model studied areas inside the boundary. While this region has been previously analyzed, prior studies have generally ignored policy affects upon the density of new residential subdivisions. The use of a binary dependent variable, i.e. develop or not develop, represents a critical oversight as this assumes policy measures exert a uniform impact across all development types. This study addressed this issue with the literature by using a multinomial logit model to differentiate the effects of various development policies to better understand residential growth. The objective of this research is to determine what factors influence individual landowner's decision to convert an undeveloped property to residential use. The impacts of rural conservation (RC) zoning and urban growth boundaries (UGB) comprise the prominent land-use regulations analyzed in this study. The empirical estimates provided significant evidence that maximum density zoning effectively limits the density of new residential development in almost every model. Other policy measures, mainly rural legacy areas and critical areas, were generally found to be ineffective at limiting growth. This research concludes that maximum density zoning comprises the strongest tool for limiting development to a density mandated by the county government. Finally, maps depicting the predicted probability of development at two densities are included and discussed to indicate the areas most likely to be subdivided for residential land use.

Exurban development, consisting of low density residential housing in a rural setting, is steadily increasing in North America. This increase may have negative impacts on the habitat for some species, through the introduction of non-native plants and new predators such as house cats. The northern prairie skink (Plestiodon septentrionalis) is listed as Endangered in Canada occurring only in southwestern Manitoba. The objectives of this study included: a) defining prairie skink microhabitat use on private land according to vegetation, temperature and cover availability, b) determining landowner awareness of prairie skinks on their property, and c) determining how landowner stewardship could be used in skink conservation. Mixed methods strategy of inquiry was utilized and data collection procedures included both quantitative habitat surveys and qualitative landowner interviews. I found that prairie skinks were most often found in prairie habitat, and were found most often in areas with a) high percent artificial cover, b) high leaf litter, and c) more pieces of cover per acre. Landowners most often saw skinks near buildings, in flower beds and in debris piles. Landowner attitudes towards skinks were positive,though willingness may not translate into action.

Exurban development, consisting of low density residential housing in a rural setting, is steadily increasing in North America. This increase may have negative impacts on the habitat for some species, through the introduction of non-native plants and new predators such as house cats. The northern prairie skink (Plestiodon septentrionalis) is listed as Endangered in Canada occurring only in southwestern Manitoba. The objectives of this study included: a) defining prairie skink microhabitat use on private land according to vegetation, temperature and cover availability, b) determining landowner awareness of prairie skinks on their property, and c) determining how landowner stewardship could be used in skink conservation. Mixed methods strategy of inquiry was utilized and data collection procedures included both quantitative habitat surveys and qualitative landowner interviews. I found that prairie skinks were most often found in prairie habitat, and were found most often in areas with a) high percent artificial cover, b) high leaf litter, and c) more pieces of cover per acre. Landowners most often saw skinks near buildings, in flower beds and in debris piles. Landowner attitudes towards skinks were positive,though willingness may not translate into action.

Exurbanization is occurring where large tracts of land are being sold to developers. Typically these are ranches that are then divided into 40-acre parcels and sold by developers, avoiding subdivision regulations requiring paved streets, utilities and other amenities. The result is an unplanned subdivision with no infrastructure, and tax revenues that cannot offset the cost of providing it. Interviews with professional planners suggested there may be independent variables capable of predicting the amount of human disturbance in an exurban area: parcel size, full cash value, tenure, distance to paved roads, site-built housing, mobile homes, and presence of biological or riparian areas. A total of 7,465 acres (3,022 ha) of parcel disturbance were digitized in exurban Arivaca, acreage values were converted to a binary dependent variable and used in logistic regression analysis to test independent variables' predictive value. Four were statistically significant: parcel size, full cash value, mobile homes and site-built housing. Landscape fragmentation was also tested using the presence of the variable scoring highest in probability - site-built housing. Zones of influence with a negative ecological influence surrounded the homes - up to 5,055 acres (2,046 ha) were impacted. Interviews with an exemplary sample of residents regarding their land use ethic found all had very strong opinions on how their properties should be treated as well as undesirable land uses such as overgrazing, over-use of groundwater for short-term economic gain and use of off-road vehicles. An explanation of the small sample size of both planners and residents is warranted. Planners were limited to those working in Pima County government who had professional experience with the study area of Arivaca and were familiar with its particular situation. The number of Arivaca residents interviewed was intended to discern an exemplary group's opinions based on how large a parcel they owned, the various sizes being a typical cross-section of acreage in the study area. What these findings illustrate is (1) the difficulty of predicting human-induced disturbance, (2) land fragmentation is more than the actual areas of physical disturbance and (3) some residents are aware of impacts related to their activities, mitigating damage wherever possible.

This dissertation investigates selected empirical and theoretical aspects of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in exurban areas. Two challenges – observation and monitoring of LUCC, and spatially explicit modeling, are addressed using three main approaches – measuring, reviewing and agent-based modeling (ABM). All of these approaches focus on LUCC at the individual household level, investigating how micro-scale elements interact to influence macro-scale functional patterns—bottom-up analysis. First, the temporal change of the quantity and pattern of land-cover types within exurban residential parcels in three townships in the southeastern Michigan is examined using landscape metrics and local indicators of spatial association at the parcel and parcel-neighborhood level respectively. The results demonstrate that the number and area of exurban residential parcels increased steadily from 1960 to 2000, and different land-cover types have distinctive temporal changes over time. The results also indicate that there is a convergence process at the neighborhood level through which the quantity and pattern of land cover in parcels conform with the neighborhood appearance. Second, 51 urban residential choice models based on ABM are reviewed. The results divide these models into three categories (i.e. models based on classical theories, models focusing on different stages of urbanization process; and integrated ABM and microsimulation models). This review also compares the differences among these models in their representations of three essential features brought by the technique of ABM: agent heterogeneity, the land market and output measurement. Challenges in incorporating these features, such as the trade-off between the simplicity and abstraction of model and the complexity of urban residential system, interactions of multiple features and demands for data at individual level, are also discussed. Third, the effects of agent heterogeneity on spatial and socioeconomic outcomes under different levels of land-market representations are explored through three experiments using a stylized agent-based land-market model. The results reveal that budget heterogeneity has prominent effects on socioeconomic outcomes, while preference heterogeneity is highly pertinent to spatial outcomes. The relationship between agent heterogeneity and macro-measures becomes more complex as more land-market mechanisms are represented. The results also imply that land-market representation (e.g., competitive bidding) is indispensable to reproduce the results of classical urban land market models (e.g., monocentric city model) in a spatial ABM when agents are heterogeneous.

Anthropogenic disturbance in a landscape can take various forms, including residential development, which has substantial impact on the world’s ecosystems. Exurban development, characterized by low density residential development outside urban areas, was and continues to be one of the fastest growing forms of residential development in North America. It has disproportionately large ecological impacts relative to its footprint, yet is mostly overlooked in scientific studies. Specifically, a lack of spatially explicit (disaggregate) data on exurban development at regional level has contributed to a very limited understanding of this interspersed low density development. The main goal of this dissertation is to provide an increased understanding of exurban development in terms of its location, locating factors, and conservation and ecological implications at regional level, especially to enable incorporation of exurban information in the decision making processes. For this I asked four specific questions in this dissertation: (i) Where exactly is exurban development? (ii) What are the most likely factors that influence exurban development location? (iii) How does current and future development conflict with conservation goals? And (iv) What is the extent of the exurban development’s ecological impacts? Using a heterogeneous landscape, the County of Peterborough (Ontario, Canada), as the case study this dissertation undertook a number of separate yet related analyses that collectively provided the improved understanding of exurban development. The investigation of traditionally used surrogates for development, like roads and census data, and a more direct remote sensing method, using moderate resolution SPOT/HRVIR imagery, provided insights and contributed to development of spatially explicit data on exurban development. The evaluation of several commonly hypothesized locating factors in relation to exurban development revealed some of the major influences on the location of this development, especially in the context of Ontario. This research contributed to our understanding of the future risks of land conversion and identification of potential conflict areas between development and conservation plans in the study area. Lastly, examining the ecological impact of exurban development including associated roads, in terms of functions such as barrier effects and landscape connectivity, highlighted the importance of these seldom included anthropogenic disturbances in land and conservation planning. The contributions of this research to the existing body of knowledge are threefold. First, this dissertation reveals the limitations associated with existing methods used to map exurban development and presents a relatively easy, effective, automated and operational method to delineate exurban built areas at regional level using GIS and remote sensing. Second, the analyses conducted in this dissertation repeatedly highlights the importance of incorporating fine level details on exurban development in land and conservation planning as well as ecological impact assessments and presents methods and tools that can systematically and scientifically integrate this information in decision making framework. Third, this study conducted one of a kind, comprehensive and spatially explicit study on exurban development in Canada, where there is near absence of such research. With the rarely available exurban built footprint data delineated for the study area, this study not only identified the potential locating factors, future conversion risk, and conflict areas between development and conservation plans, but also quantified ecological impact in terms of landscape function, namely barrier effects and landscape connectivity, using a relatively novel circuit theoretic approach that can directly inform land and conservation decision planning process.

Anthropogenic disturbance in a landscape can take various forms, including residential development, which has substantial impact on the world’s ecosystems. Exurban development, characterized by low density residential development outside urban areas, was and continues to be one of the fastest growing forms of residential development in North America. It has disproportionately large ecological impacts relative to its footprint, yet is mostly overlooked in scientific studies. Specifically, a lack of spatially explicit (disaggregate) data on exurban development at regional level has contributed to a very limited understanding of this interspersed low density development. The main goal of this dissertation is to provide an increased understanding of exurban development in terms of its location, locating factors, and conservation and ecological implications at regional level, especially to enable incorporation of exurban information in the decision making processes. For this I asked four specific questions in this dissertation: (i) Where exactly is exurban development? (ii) What are the most likely factors that influence exurban development location? (iii) How does current and future development conflict with conservation goals? And (iv) What is the extent of the exurban development’s ecological impacts? Using a heterogeneous landscape, the County of Peterborough (Ontario, Canada), as the case study this dissertation undertook a number of separate yet related analyses that collectively provided the improved understanding of exurban development. The investigation of traditionally used surrogates for development, like roads and census data, and a more direct remote sensing method, using moderate resolution SPOT/HRVIR imagery, provided insights and contributed to development of spatially explicit data on exurban development. The evaluation of several commonly hypothesized locating factors in relation to exurban development revealed some of the major influences on the location of this development, especially in the context of Ontario. This research contributed to our understanding of the future risks of land conversion and identification of potential conflict areas between development and conservation plans in the study area. Lastly, examining the ecological impact of exurban development including associated roads, in terms of functions such as barrier effects and landscape connectivity, highlighted the importance of these seldom included anthropogenic disturbances in land and conservation planning. The contributions of this research to the existing body of knowledge are threefold. First, this dissertation reveals the limitations associated with existing methods used to map exurban development and presents a relatively easy, effective, automated and operational method to delineate exurban built areas at regional level using GIS and remote sensing. Second, the analyses conducted in this dissertation repeatedly highlights the importance of incorporating fine level details on exurban development in land and conservation planning as well as ecological impact assessments and presents methods and tools that can systematically and scientifically integrate this information in decision making framework. Third, this study conducted one of a kind, comprehensive and spatially explicit study on exurban development in Canada, where there is near absence of such research. With the rarely available exurban built footprint data delineated for the study area, this study not only identified the potential locating factors, future conversion risk, and conflict areas between development and conservation plans, but also quantified ecological impact in terms of landscape function, namely barrier effects and landscape connectivity, using a relatively novel circuit theoretic approach that can directly inform land and conservation decision planning process.

This dissertation investigates selected empirical and theoretical aspects of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in exurban areas. Two challenges – observation and monitoring of LUCC, and spatially explicit modeling, are addressed using three main approaches – measuring, reviewing and agent-based modeling (ABM). All of these approaches focus on LUCC at the individual household level, investigating how micro-scale elements interact to influence macro-scale functional patterns—bottom-up analysis. First, the temporal change of the quantity and pattern of land-cover types within exurban residential parcels in three townships in the southeastern Michigan is examined using landscape metrics and local indicators of spatial association at the parcel and parcel-neighborhood level respectively. The results demonstrate that the number and area of exurban residential parcels increased steadily from 1960 to 2000, and different land-cover types have distinctive temporal changes over time. The results also indicate that there is a convergence process at the neighborhood level through which the quantity and pattern of land cover in parcels conform with the neighborhood appearance. Second, 51 urban residential choice models based on ABM are reviewed. The results divide these models into three categories (i.e. models based on classical theories, models focusing on different stages of urbanization process; and integrated ABM and microsimulation models). This review also compares the differences among these models in their representations of three essential features brought by the technique of ABM: agent heterogeneity, the land market and output measurement. Challenges in incorporating these features, such as the trade-off between the simplicity and abstraction of model and the complexity of urban residential system, interactions of multiple features and demands for data at individual level, are also discussed. Third, the effects of agent heterogeneity on spatial and socioeconomic outcomes under different levels of land-market representations are explored through three experiments using a stylized agent-based land-market model. The results reveal that budget heterogeneity has prominent effects on socioeconomic outcomes, while preference heterogeneity is highly pertinent to spatial outcomes. The relationship between agent heterogeneity and macro-measures becomes more complex as more land-market mechanisms are represented. The results also imply that land-market representation (e.g., competitive bidding) is indispensable to reproduce the results of classical urban land market models (e.g., monocentric city model) in a spatial ABM when agents are heterogeneous.

Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 34-36).