El presente trabajo propone un modelo, inspirado en el análisis de las diferentes características de los ciclos económicos de distintas economías, que se basa en el marco de referencia de Talvi y Végh (2005), pero en el que introduciendo cuestiones de tipo agent-based se concluye que la política fiscal óptima no necesariamente es procíclica. En el capítulo 2 se analizan las propiedades del ciclo del producto en distintas economías. A partir de tal análisis se introduce una medida de complejidad macroeconómica que se utiliza posteriormente. En el capítulo 3 se presenta un modelo en el que los agentes pueden tener expectativas heterogéneas (en la línea de Brock y Hommes (1997)). En particular, en cada período cada agente puede tener “expectativas cuasi- racionales” (el concepto se define luego, pero el punto central reside en que puede acceder al valor de la observación que surge de expectativas racionales para un período, mientras que tener expectativas racionales completas implicaría conocer el valor las observaciones sin sesgos para todos los períodos), las cuales pueden ser “compradas” pagando un precio que depende positiva- mente de una medida de complejidad de la economía, o puede tener expectativas del tipo “seguir la tendencia”, que no tiene costo monetario pero pueden estar asociadas a errores de pronóstico. En equilibrio, se tienen expectativas heterogéneas. Luego se introducen tales resultados en el marco de Talvi y Végh (2005), y se prueba que el rol de la política fiscal no necesariamente debe ser el de evitar las presiones políticas, sino también el de reducir la volatilidad de la economía y generar previsibilidad (que en el modelo viene dada por la evolución de las tendencias de corto plazo respecto a la de largo plazo), lo que está asociado a una política fiscal contracíclica. En el capítulo 4 se proponen extensiones al análisis realizado en el capítulo 3: si la política fiscal óptima no es procíclica, entonces: ¿por qué es tal el resultado en la mayoría de los países en desarrollo? Allí se sugiere una hipótesis alternativa: así como en una economía de alta volatilidad e imprevisibilidad el sector privado encuentra complicado estimar el ingreso permanente, lo mismo puede ocurrirle al gobierno. Cuando las tendencias son difíciles de identificar, ex-ante el gobierno podría actuar pensando en ser contracíclico, mientras que la tendencia revelada ex-post revelaría que la política fue procíclica. Tal resultado no sería óptimo, pero dadas las expectativas del gobierno sería interpretado ex-ante como un equilibrio asociado a un comportamiento benevolente. El capítulo 5 ofrece las reflexiones finales. El Anexo 1 extiende los resultados sobre prociclicidad hallados por Talvi y Végh (op. cit) hasta el año 2005 (la muestra utilizada por Talvi y Végh contiene datos hasta el año 2000). El anexo 2 muestra los resultados de las estimaciones del modelo presentado en la sección 3.1 para ocho países.

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Part I deals with the estimation of money demand functions. Several non-structural interpretations of the conventionally estimated functions are surveyed and discussed (Chapter 1). An application to Italian data is then presented, focusing on two such interpretations. First (Chapter 2), the role of expectations in determining money demand behaviour is assessed. Since monetary policy regimes have a direct effect on the time-series properties of interest rates, the identification of clear regime changes may provide a powerful test of forward-looking models of money demand. An expectations model is constructed, which is stable in the face of the Italian monetary policy regime change in 1970, when traditional backward-looking money demand functions show remarkable instability. Second (Chapter 3), the existence of multiple long-run relations among the variables relevant to money demand is shown to create problems for the interpretation of single-equation estimates. To obtain a satisfactory specification of the long-run relations and the short-run dynamics of the system around equilibrium, a sequential procedure is devised and applied. In Part II, the controversy between "real" and "monetary" theories of fluctuations is examined (Chapter 4). A "monetary" equilibrium model of the cycle is constructed, extending the original Lucas "island" framework to allow for a powerful role for stabilization policy. The implications of alternative monetary policy regimes are derived and tested on U.S. data, comparing two periods (1922-1940 and 1952-1968) with a different policy stance. Chapter 5 investigates the relative importance of the "money" and "credit" channels of monetary transmission for Italy in the 1982-1994 period, using a structural VAR methodology. Monetary policy is effective, though not through a "credit channel", and independent disturbances to credit supply have sizeable real effects. In Chapter 6 the focus is shifted to anticipated fiscal policy actions and their effect on consumption. A long series of pre-announced income tax changes is examined for the U.K. Consumption reacts to such fiscally-induced disposable income changes only at the implementation dates.

El presente trabajo consiste en la estimación de la evasión en el Impuesto a la Ganancias Personas Físicas para el período fiscal 2002, a partir de datos de ingresos obtenidos de la encuesta permanente de hogares (EPH). Se trata de estimar la evasión para diferentes intervalos de ingresos gravados, a nivel global, como así también por actividad económica. Las estimaciones son llevadas a cabo mediante la utilización de un modelo de microsimulación. La evasión se define en este trabajo como la diferencia entre el impuesto determinado potencial o teórico y el impuesto determinado que surge de las declaraciones juradas presentadas a la Administración Tributaria. El impuesto determinado potencial o teórico, es el impuesto que resulta de la aplicación de las normas jurídicas que determinan y regulan el impuesto, calculado sobre una base imponible teórica, a partir de los ingresos obtenidos de la EPH. El modelo de microsimulación desarrollado en este trabajo es el que permite obtener el impuesto determinado potencial para poder luego ser contrastado con el impuesto determinado declarado y estimar así la evasión. Luego, se utilizan las especificaciones del modelo desarrollado para simular cambios en la estructura del impuesto tales como un aumento en el monto de las deducciones personales y una disminución en el nivel de las alícuotas. Además, el modelo permite obtener como subproducto el monto teórico de recaudación del monotributo. Como objetivo principal, el trabajo pretende brindar a la administración tributaria una herramienta útil para elaborar estrategias de fiscalización que focalicen en aquellos segmentos de contribuyentes que presenten los más elevados niveles de evasión. Al mismo tiempo, el modelo desarrollado proporciona una medida de cuánto el Fisco deja de recaudar, a causa de la evasión en el impuesto bajo consideración. Asimismo, el modelo permite medir el impacto sobre el impuesto a las ganancias personas físicas, ante cambios en la estructura del mismo.

This dissertation comprises two essays. While the topics of both essays are different both are interrelated on the base of economic development. The first essay examines ethnic wage gaps on segmented labor markets with evidence from Latin American countries. The second essay revisits the determinants of fiscal decentralization with an emphasis on the role that geography plays in determining fiscal decentralization. The first essay contributes to limited literature on ethnic wage gaps in Latin America. It examines ethnic wage gaps for workers in formal and informal labor markets. Using data from Latin American countries we estimate and examine across-ethnic wage gaps for informal and formal markets, their changes over time, factors that explain their differences, and the wage gap distribution. More specifically, we verify that different ethnic wage gaps do exist across formal and informal markets; they behave differently not only at their means but also along the wage distribution. The results indicate that higher ethnic wage gaps in informal sectors exist not only on average but also throughout the distribution. In addition, we find that wage gaps have declined significantly over the last 10 years. we explain this by examining changes in the prices of institutional factors and changes in human capital endowments. The distributional analysis shows a decrease in the unexplained component, especially in the top part of the distribution. The second essay contributes to the existing literature on the determinants of fiscal decentralization by motivating theoretically and exploiting in depth the empirical relevance that geography has as a determinant of fiscal decentralization. The relationship between decentralization and geography is based on the logic that more geographically diverse countries show greater heterogeneity among their citizens, including their preferences and needs for public goods and services provisions. Communications and physical distance are also a very important issue and play a key role on the effect of geography over time. (Lora et. al., 2003) argue geography plays a key role in economic and social development, as well as in the institutional design of the countries; yet, this effect could be enhanced (or diminished) in the presence of better physical infrastructure or communications. The theoretical model in this paper builds on the work by Arzaghi and Henderson (2002) and Panizza (1999). For the empirical estimation, we use a panel data set for approximately 91 countries for the period 1960-2005. Physical geography is measured along several dimensions, including elevation, land area and climate. We construct a geographical fragmentation index and test its effect on fiscal decentralization. In addition, we interact the geographical fragmentation index with time-variant infrastructure variables in order to test the effect that infrastructure and communications have on the relationship between geography and fiscal decentralization. For robustness, we construct Gini coefficients for in-country elevation and climate. We find a positive and strong correlation between geographical factors and fiscal decentralization. We also find that while the development of infrastructure (in transportation, communications, etc.) tends to reduce the effect of geography on decentralization, this effect is rather small and mostly statistically insignificant, meaning that the impact of geography survives over time. The strategy has additional value because geography may be used as an instrument for decentralization in future econometric estimations where decentralization is used as an explanatory variable, but may be suspected to be endogenous to the economic process being studied (economic growth, political instability, macroeconomic stability, income distribution, etc.).

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This thesis consists of three essays in monetary economics and international macroeconomics. / Chapter one uses Canadian data to evaluate the performance of money growth targeting and inflation targeting policy rules, especially when they react to asset price changes. There are three important findings. First, estimates of the policy rules consistent with both regimes provide evidence that the Bank of Canada has systematically reacted to stock price bubbles and exchange rate changes. Second, a counterfactual experiment reveals that, the high inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s could have been avoided if the Bank of Canada had responded more strongly to inflation and growth in aggregate demand. Third, simulation experiments yielded two important results: For both the money growth targeting and inflation targeting policy rules, it is always desirable to react to changes in exchange rates and stock price bubbles: Contrary to established findings, the results indicate that the money growth targeting policy rules are more efficient than the inflation targeting policy rules. / Chapter two uses data on Ghana to test the validity of the intertemporal model of current account that allows for external shocks in the form of variable interest rates and exchange rates, and the existence of capital controls. We find that, irrespective of the degree of capital control, the basic model fails to predict the dynamics of the actual current account. However, we find that extending the model to capture variations in interest rates and exchange rates better explains the path of the actual current account balances only during the liberalized regime. When the model was adjusted to allow for credit constraints, there was some support for the proposition that the presence of capital controls prevented economic agents in Ghana to smooth their consumption path during the control regime. / Chapter three investigates the effect of trading block on Tanzania's bilateral trade. Using a fixed effects estimation technique, the results revealed that the East African Community (EAC) and the European Union (EU) have had significant positive effects on Tanzania's bilateral trade. We also find that there is a significant intra-trade relationship between Tanzania and its major trading partners in the manufacturing sector.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2008. / Title from first page of PDF file (viewed Aug. 13, 2008). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.