Master thesis in Business Administration, Swedish Business School at Örebro University, spring semester 2012 Authors: Anders Oskarsson & Christian Uhlander Title: I’m going to make you rich! -With a little help from Piotroski Research objective: This paper examines whether a simple account-based analysis strategy, F_SCORE, can improve returns earned by an investor. The results show that F_SCORE generated a 69,7 % annual return between 2001-2010 at the Swedish market, which was better than the further developed model A_SCORE. Overall, the evidence suggests that the market does not incorporate historical information into prices in a timely manner. Methodology: The foundation for this thesis is based on a quantitative approach and empirical material is gathered from Thomson Reuters Datastream for the Swedish market.

This paper uses a fundamental investment strategy model developed by Piotroski (2000), called F_SCORE. The model uses accounting-based ratios applied for portfolios of high book-to-market firms. The aim of the study is to test the model for the US stock market during the years 1998-2015, as well as to develop it. The first test uses the original model during the specified time period. The next step is to develop the model by using correlations between each of the signals and future returns that Piotroski (2000) has proven to exist. The test showed that the F_SCORE outperforms the market during the time period. In the developed model the return can be increased even further. The result shows that the market adjusted return can be increased by an average of 24.7 % annually. The developed model thereby generates a better market adjusted return than Piotroski's original model. / Följande examensarbete använder en fundamental investeringsstrategi framtagen av Piotroski (2000) som benämns F_SCORE. Strategin har sin utgångspunkt i finansiella rapporter gällande företag med höga book-to-market. Syftet med studien är att testa modellen för den amerikanska marknaden under åren 1998–2015, samt utveckla den. Det första testet använder ursprungsmodellen under den angivna tidsperioden. I nästa steg utvecklas modellen genom att hänsyn tas till respektive nyckeltals korrelation med avkastning som Piotroski (2000) visat existerar. Testet visade att F_SCORE överträffar marknaden under den valda tidsperioden. I den utvecklade modellen gick det att öka avkastningen ytterligare. Resultatet visar att det går att öka den marknadsjusterade avkastningen med i genomsnitt 24,7 % per år. Den utvecklade modellen genererar därmed en bättre marknadsjusterad avkastning än Piotroskis originalmodell.

The aim of this paper is to test whether an investment strategy originally created by Piotroski (2000), can be refined by combining it with the price-to-earnings-anomaly. In detail, we accomplish this by implementing Piotroskis F_SCORE-model to identify and consequently separate financially weak- and strong firms. Furthermore, we create an investment portfolio based on a combination of the highest rated companies according to the F_SCORE-model, and the most undervalued companies from the price-to-earnings-anomaly, to create a joint investment strategy (M_STRAT). This is carried out during the time-period 1999-2009, while reconstructing the portfolio annually. The results of our study show that, by combining the two models, we are able to achieve a market-adjusted return of 44,1%, hence amplifying the original F_SCORE-model by 17%.

Syfte: Det huvudsakliga syftet är att testa om Piotroskis F_SCORE tillämpat på aktier med hög book-to-market kvot kan överavkasta marknadsportföljen samt, som en konsekvens av detta, undersöka vilken grad av marknadseffektivitet som föreligger. Det sekundära syftet är att tillföra ett kunskapsbidrag till företagsledare om relevansen i book-to-market kvoten. Metod: Detta är en kvantitativ studie som utgår från ett positivistiskt synsätt och en hypotetiskt-deduktiv ansats. Statistiska tester i form av regressionsanalyser har utformats för att bestämma resultatets signifikansnivå. Den empiriska datan har inhämtats från databasen Thomson Reuter Datastream och sammanställts i Excel för att sedan analyseras i statistikprogrammet Stata. Resultat & slutsats: Studiens resultat visar att värdeportföljen överavkastar marknadsindex samt att den gör det över en längre tidsperiod. Det går också att fastställa att den riskjusterade avkastningen för värdeportföljen är högre än för marknaden, vilket tyder på att överavkastningen inte beror på en högre risk. Det går dock inte att avgöra om den effektiva marknadshypotesen råder eller ej, däremot går det att utesluta att den starka och semi-starka formen av marknadseffektivitet gäller. Förslag till fortsatt forskning: För att studera vidare huruvida den svaga formen av marknadseffektivitet råder är ett förslag till vidare forskning att göra en studie utifrån Contrarian modellen för att använda teknisk analys som endast tar hänsyn till historiska kursrörelser för att förutspå framtida avkastning. Ett annat förslag till vidare forskning är att genomföra en liknande studie som denna men då bortse från book to market kvoten och istället köpa aktier med ett F_SCORE högre eller lika med 5 samt att blanka de aktier som har ett F_SCORE under 5. Det tredje förslaget är att studera vidare kring sambandet mellan avkastning och anomalier som småbolagseffekten, likviditet och beteendefinans för att få en tydligare förståelse för vad som orsakar överavkastningen. Uppsatsens bidrag: Det teoretiska bidraget är att den aktuella investeringsstrategin överavkastar marknadsindex för vald tidsperiod utan en nödvändigtvis högre risk. F_SCORE antar en normalfördelningskurva där de bolag som har F_SCORE över fem generellt presterar bättre. Resultatet visar även att book to market kvoten är ett användbart nyckeltal för bolagsvärdering. Det praktiska bidraget är att det kan vara av vikt för företagsledare att fokusera på book to market kvoten för att locka investerare. För investerare är bidraget att denna investeringsstrategi kan slå marknadsindex utan att risken i portföljen ökar. / Aim The main aim is to test if Piotroskis F_SCORE applied on stocks with high book-to- market ratio outperforms the market portfolio and therefore determine the level of market efficiency. The secondary aim is to provide knowledge to business executives about the relevance of a book-to-market policy. Method This study is a quantitative research which assumes a positivistic research philosophy with a deductive approach. Several regression analyses have been used to confirm the statistical significance of the different estimated parameters. The empirical results give answers to two hypotheses based on the aim of this research. The empirical data have been collected from Thomson Reuter Datastream, compiled in Excel and analyzed with the statistical software Stata. Result & Conclusions The empirical results of this study show that the value portfolio has a higher return than the market index. The risk-adjusted return for the value portfolio is higher compared to the market portfolio. This indicates that the higher return of the value portfolio is not due to a higher risk. By the results of this study there is not possible to determine whether the market is fully efficient or not. It is only possible to exclude the strong and semi-strong form of market efficiency. Suggestions for future research For future studies, we suggest further research about the weak form of market efficiency. Using historical data to determine future return, as Contrarian model, is one suggestion to reach further evidence of market (in)efficiency. Since F_SCORE assumes a normal distribution and because of the poor performance of the low F_SCORE firms another suggestion is short-sell these stocks to see if the return ca be increased. This empirical field needs further research about which factors that causes the higher return for these stocks. The small firm effect, liquidity and behavioral finance are just a few anomalies that may have a relationship with excess return. Contribution of the thesis The investment strategy in this research shows a higher excess return compared to the market index as well as a higher risk-adjusted return over the given period. This is not only a contribution to investors but also in a theoretical field due to the efficient market hypothesis. F_SCORE have a normal distribution curve where the stocks with F_SCORE of 5 or higher generally have a higher mean return. Another contribution is the relevance of book to market ratio as a useful strategy for valuating companies. The practical contribution gives business executives better understanding about the relevance of a book-to-market policy when attracting investors.

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Submitted by Philipp Dambach (philipp.dambach@gmail.com) on 2016-10-05T09:37:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 APPLYING PIOTROSKI’S F_SCORE TO THE GERMAN STOCK MARKET. EVIDENCE FROM 2002-2016..pdf: 1007676 bytes, checksum: 5ab68d6efd7a8606a6f70316ee4c942a (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Dear Philipp, The number of pages are incorrect, it's counts from the first page but the number only appear in the introduction. best. Ana Luiza Holme 37993492 on 2016-10-05T12:07:50Z (GMT) / Submitted by Philipp Dambach (philipp.dambach@gmail.com) on 2016-10-05T12:32:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 APPLYING PIOTROSKI’S F_SCORE TO THE GERMAN STOCK MARKET. EVIDENCE FROM 2002-2016..pdf: 1006384 bytes, checksum: 48e705c5c456be0e2cbc6205b85705e4 (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Dear Philipp, I apologize but I forgot to metion that the abstract is before the resumo. Also is missing the acknowledgment. Warm regards. Ana Luiza Holme 37993492 on 2016-10-05T14:22:17Z (GMT) / Submitted by Philipp Dambach (philipp.dambach@gmail.com) on 2016-10-05T15:22:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 APPLYING PIOTROSKI’S F_SCORE TO THE GERMAN STOCK MARKET. EVIDENCE FROM 2002-2016..pdf: 1007025 bytes, checksum: 5cba006abff9b93c7a4de8ca2fd08ecd (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Dear Philipp, Only the acknowledgment is missing. Please include in the thesis before the abstract. Best. Ana Luiza Holme 37993492 on 2016-10-05T16:03:07Z (GMT) / Submitted by Philipp Dambach (philipp.dambach@gmail.com) on 2016-10-05T16:31:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 APPLYING PIOTROSKI’S F_SCORE TO THE GERMAN STOCK MARKET. EVIDENCE FROM 2002-2016..pdf: 1009654 bytes, checksum: deaf2c7429e1362493959d5203294fff (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-10-05T16:33:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 APPLYING PIOTROSKI’S F_SCORE TO THE GERMAN STOCK MARKET. EVIDENCE FROM 2002-2016..pdf: 1009654 bytes, checksum: deaf2c7429e1362493959d5203294fff (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-05T17:20:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 APPLYING PIOTROSKI’S F_SCORE TO THE GERMAN STOCK MARKET. EVIDENCE FROM 2002-2016..pdf: 1009654 bytes, checksum: deaf2c7429e1362493959d5203294fff (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-28 / This work project applies Joseph Piotroski’s F_SCORE to the German stock market between 2002 and 2016. Considering the smaller size of the German stock market, a F_SCORE_ADD was created to differentiate between companies with the same score. Portfolios that went long in expected winners and shorted expected losers generated strong results within the small cap sample. For large caps, the abnormality of returns was not significant after controlling for common risk factors and quality. This relates to the results of other researchers and questions the practicality of the investment strategy for institutional investors with a large capital base to employ. / Esta dissertação aplica o F_SCORE de Joseph Piotroski ao mercado de ações alemão entre 2002 e 2016. Por causa do tamanho menor do mercado de ações alemão, um F_SCORE_ADD foi criado para diferenciar entre as empresas com a mesma pontuação. Carteiras que foram 'long' em vencedores esperados e 'short' em perdedores esperados renderam bons resultados dentro da amostra com empresas de baixo valor de mercado. Para as empresas de alta capitalização, a anormalidade de retornos não foi estatisticamente significante após o controle de fatores de risco comuns e qualidade. Isto relaciona-se com os resultados de outros investigadores e questiona a praticidade desta estratégia de investimento para os investidores institucionais com uma grande base de capital para empregar.

The aim of this study is to investigate the possibility to improve the investment model defined in Piotroski (2000) and the subsequent research carried out on this model. Our model builds further upon the original fundamental score put forth by Piotroski. This further developed model is tested in two different contexts; firstly, a weighted fundamental score is developed that is updated every year in order to control for any changes in the predictive ability of fundamental signals over time. Secondly, the behavior of this score is analyzed in context of recession and growth cycles of the macro economy. Our findings show that high book-to-market portfolio consist of poor performing firms, as shown by Fama and French (1995) and is thereby outperformed by both Piotroski's F_score and our own developed scores. The score based on a rolling window correlation is performing a little better then F_score, but the score based on correlations for prior Up and Down periods is not. The conclusions we draw from the results are that improvements have to be made, both to F_score and our own developments, to sort winners from loser to get an even more profitable zero-investment hedge strategy.

This study examines the Swedish Stock Exchange during the time period of 1998-2016. Where the purpose is to investigate and compare five different investment strategies to see if these investment strategies can create excess return on their investments, after adjustment for risk. The investment strategies can be found on the internet, and be used after purchasing a smaller amount of money, therefore the results can be applied to all investors independent on their level of experience. The results for the different investment strategies are not clear, the different tests give mixed results which leaves four of five hypotheses unanswered. However, there is one strategy that can be rejected, it cannot beat the market, which is the Net-Nets strategy. In general, one could thus say that the investment strategies can create higher return compared to the market, but that these returns are random. Therefore, it requires a longer time period for the investor as well as higher risk, since one never knows when this large return will be given.