Yes / Temporal fault trees (TFTs), an extension of classical Boolean fault trees, can model time-dependent failure behaviour of dynamic systems. The methodologies used for quantitative analysis of TFTs include algebraic solutions, Petri nets (PN), and Bayesian networks (BN). In these approaches, precise failure data of components are usually used to calculate the probability of the top event of a TFT. However, it can be problematic to obtain these precise data due to the imprecise and incomplete information about the components of a system. In this paper, we propose a framework that combines intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to enable quantitative analysis of TFTs of dynamic systems with uncertain data. Experts’ opinions are taken into account to compute the failure probability of the basic events of the TFT as intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Subsequently, for the algebraic approach, the intuitionistic fuzzy operators for the logic gates of TFT are defined to quantify the TFT. On the other hand, for the quantification of TFTs via PN and BN-based approaches, the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are defuzzified to be used in these approaches. As a result, the framework can be used with all the currently available TFT analysis approaches. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated via application to a practical system and through a comparison of the results of each approach. / This work was supported in part by the Mobile IOT: Location Aware project (grant no. MMUE/180025) and Indoor Internet of Things (IOT) Tracking Algorithm Development based on Radio Signal Characterisation project (grant no. FRGS/1/2018/TK08/MMU/02/1). This research also received partial support from DEIS H2020 project (grant no. 732242).

Small unmanned aerial vehicles (SUAVs) are plagued by alarmingly high failure rates. Because these systems are small and built at lower cost than full-scale aircraft, high quality components and redundant systems are often eschewed to keep production costs low. This thesis proposes a process to ``design in'' reliability in a cost-effective way. Fault Tree Analysis is used to evaluate a system's (un)reliability and Dempster-Shafer Theory (Evidence Theory) is used to deal with imprecise failure data. Three unique sensitivity analyses highlight the most cost-effective improvement for the system by either spending money to research a component and reduce uncertainty, swap a component for a higher quality alternative, or add redundancy to an existing component. A MATLAB$^{\circledR}$ toolbox has been developed to assist in practical design applications. Finally, a case study illustrates the proposed methods by improving the reliability of a new SUAV design: Virginia Tech's SPAARO UAV. / Master of Science

Nuclear-based hydrogen generation is a promising way to supply hydrogen for this large market in the future. This thesis focuses on one of the most promising methods, a thermochemical Cu-Cl cycle, which is currently under development by UOIT, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) and the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The safety issues of the Cu-Cl cycle are addressed in this thesis. An investigation of major accident scenarios shows that potential tragedies can be avoided with effective risk analysis and safety management programs. As a powerful and systematic tool, fault tree analysis (FTA) is adapted to the particular needs of the Cu-Cl system. This thesis develops a new method that combines FTA with a reliability analysis tool, multi-state system (MSS), to improve the accuracy of FTA and also improve system reliability. / UOIT

A method able to analyze and optimize subsystems could be useful to reduce project cost, increase subsystem reliability, improve overall aircraft safety and reduce subsystem weight. The earlier the optimization of development of an aircraft in the design phase can be performed, the better the yield of the optimization becomes. This master thesis was formed in order to construct an automatic analysis method, implementing a Matlab script, evaluating devices forming aircraft subsystems using a Genetic Algorithm. In addition to aircraft subsystems, the method constructed in the work is compatible with systems of various industries with minor modifications of the script.

Modern society is unquestionably heavily reliant on supply of electricity. Hence, the power system is one of the important infrastructures for future growth. However, the power system of today was designed for a stable radial flow of electricity from large power plants to the customers and not for the type of changes it is presently being exposed to, like large scale integration of electric vehicles, wind power plants, residential photovoltaic systems etc. One aspect of power system control particular exposed to these changes is the design of power system control and protection functionality. Problems occur when the flow of electricity changes from a unidirectional radial flow to a bidirectional. Such an implication requires redesign of control and protection functionality as well as introduction of new information and communication technology (ICT). To make matters worse, the closer the interaction between the power system and the ICT systems the more complex the matter becomes from a reliability perspective. This problem is inherently cyber-physical, including everything from system software to power cables and transformers, rather than the traditional reliability concern of only focusing on power system components. The contribution of this thesis is a framework for reliability analysis, utilizing system modeling concepts that supports the industrial engineering issues that follow with the imple-mentation of modern substation automation systems. The framework is based on a Bayesian probabilistic analysis engine represented by Probabilistic Relational Models (PRMs) in com-bination with an Enterprise Architecture (EA) modeling formalism. The gradual development of the framework is demonstrated through a number of application scenarios based on substation automation system configurations. This thesis is a composite thesis consisting of seven papers. Paper 1 presents the framework combining EA, PRMs and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Paper 2 adds primary substation equipment as part of the framework. Paper 3 presents a mapping between modeling entities from the EA framework ArchiMate and substation automation system configuration objects from the IEC 61850 standard. Paper 4 introduces object definitions and relations in coherence with EA modeling formalism suitable for the purpose of the analysis framework. Paper 5 describes an extension of the analysis framework by adding logical operators to the probabilistic analysis engine. Paper 6 presents enhanced failure rates for software components by studying failure logs and an application of the framework to a utility substation automation system. Finally, Paper 7 describes the ability to utilize domain standards for coherent modeling of functions and their interrelations and an application of the framework utilizing software-tool support. / <p>QC 20140505</p>

Reliability and safety of complex software-intensive systems are proved to be a crucial matter since most of these systems fulfil tasks, where a failure could lead to catastrophic consequences. For example, in space systems such as satellites, a failure could result in the loss of the satellite. Therefore, a certain level of reliability and safety must be assured for such systems to trust the services they provide. Standards set this level and put requirements for the analysis and assurance of these properties using documented evidence. In particular, European Cooperation for Space Standardization (ECSS) standards for space systems require Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) for identifying the causes of system failure and consequently safety hazards, as well as fault trees as evidence for the assurance of reliability and safety. In this thesis, we present a tool supported model-based approach to generate fault tree automatically from an existing system modelling and analysis toolset. CHESS is a system and dependability modelling toolset and integrates Concerto-FLA to enable the support of failure logic analysis. We proposed a model-based transformation from Concerto-FLA to fault tree model and implemented it as an Eclipse plugin in CHESS toolset. A case study is performed in the aerospace domain; more specifically we modelled Attitude Control System (ACS) and automatically generated IEC-61025-compliant fault trees. / AMASS project

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:04:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Tese (Doutoramento) / IPEN/T / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:04:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Este trabalho teve como objetivo o desenvolvimento de um sistema computacional (software) de gerenciamento de risco, viabilizando o diagnóstico dos riscos dos processos de radioesterilização de tecidos biológicos. O gerenciamento de risco pode ser entendido como uma gestão sistemática que tem por objetivo identificar, registrar e controlar os riscos de um processo. Para a execução do gerenciamento de risco são requisitos fundamentais: a experiência, o discernimento e o julgamento de uma equipe multidisciplinar, direcionada por meio de ferramentas de qualidade, no intuito de proporcionar padronização no processo investigativo das causas e efeitos dos riscos; dinamismo também é requisito no alcance do objetivo desejado: a redução e o controle do risco. Nesse sentido, a aplicação do gerenciamento de risco torna-se uma atividade complexa, devido à variedade de profissionais envolvidos. Por isso, o apoio de um sistema computacional é tão importante, pois, no que tange ao gerenciamento de risco, o software facilita as tarefas do responsável pelo processo de radioesterilização de tecidos biológicos, que pode, inclusive, contar com a utilização de normas e guias específicos. Essas informações de sumária importância são indexadas nos diagnósticos de riscos, o que torna possível ao responsável qualificado a execução de ações corretivas para a garantia da segurança do processo. A metodologia adotada neste trabalho foi a pesquisa-ação, segundo a qual o pesquisador desempenha um papel ativo no equacionamento dos problemas encontrados, bem como no acompanhamento e avaliação das ações desencadeadas em função dos problemas observados. O cenário dessa pesquisa-ação foi o Laboratório de Tecidos Biológicos (LTB) no Centro de Tecnologia das Radiações (CTR, IPEN/CNEN-SP, Brasil). O software foi desenvolvido em linguagem PHP e Flash/MySQL e está hospedado num servidor que o torna disponível na internet via endereço www.vcrisk.com.br, podendo, então, ser acessado de qualquer lugar pelo usuário , por meio de um login/senha previamente encaminhados por e-mail. O sistema computacional apresenta uma navegabilidade amigável, o que permite que o usuário seja guiado, passo a passo, no processo investigativo do risco até as suas medidas de redução. Tal sistema direciona o usuário a apresentar a efetividade das ações tomadas para redução do risco dentro de prazos previstos. Assim, o uso desse sistema proporciona à organização (LTB/CTR/IPEN) uma comunicação dinâmica e efetiva entre os membros da equipe multidisciplinar: a) na tomada de decisões; b) nas lições aprendidas; c) no conhecimento do novo risco e suas ações para mantê-lo controlado; e d) no gerenciamento de falhas e riscos, garantindo a realização da principal meta de um laboratório de radioesterilização de tecidos biológicos que é a excelência de qualidade do tecido radioesterilizado. / Tese (Doutoramento) / IPEN/T / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Yes / Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a well-established and well-understood technique, widely used for dependability evaluation of a wide range of systems. Although many extensions of fault trees have been proposed, they suffer from a variety of shortcomings. In particular, even where software tool support exists, these analyses require a lot of manual effort. Over the past two decades, research has focused on simplifying dependability analysis by looking at how we can synthesise dependability information from system models automatically. This has led to the field of model-based dependability analysis (MBDA). Different tools and techniques have been developed as part of MBDA to automate the generation of dependability analysis artefacts such as fault trees. Firstly, this paper reviews the standard fault tree with its limitations. Secondly, different extensions of standard fault trees are reviewed. Thirdly, this paper reviews a number of prominent MBDA techniques where fault trees are used as a means for system dependability analysis and provides an insight into their working mechanism, applicability, strengths and challenges. Finally, the future outlook for MBDA is outlined, which includes the prospect of developing expert and intelligent systems for dependability analysis of complex open systems under the conditions of uncertainty.

Current regulations specify the minimum number of operators required per nuclear power plant. However, these requirements are based on the operation of large nuclear power plants, which are not inherent safe and can result in a meltdown. For newly developed small nuclear reactors, the current number of operators seems to be excessive causing the technology to be less competitive. Before the number of required operators can be optimised, it should be demonstrated that human errors will not endanger or cause risk to the plant or public. For this study, a small pebble bed High Temperature Reactor (HTR) Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), the Th-100, was evaluated. The inherent safety features of this type of nuclear reactor include independent barriers for fission product capture and passive heat dissipation during a loss of coolant. The control and instrumentation architecture include two independent protection systems. The Control and Limitation System is the first protection system to react if the reactor parameters exceed those of the normal operational safe zone. If the Control and Limitation System fail to maintain the reactor within the safe zone, the Reactor Protection System would at that time operate and force the reactor to a safe state. Both these automated protection systems are installed in a control room local to the reactor building, protected from adverse conditions. In addition, it is connected to a semi-remote control room, anticipated as a multi-unit control room to include the monitoring and control of the auxiliary systems. Probable case studies of human error associated with multi-unit control rooms were evaluated against the logic of the Control and Limitation System. Fault Tree Analysis was used to investigate all possible failures. The evaluation determined the reliability of the Control and Limitation System and highlighted areas which design engineers should take into account if a higher reliability is required. The scenario was expanded, applying the same methods, to include the large release of fission products in order to verify the reliability calculations. The probability of a large release of fission products compared with studies done on other nuclear installations revealed to be much less for the evaluated HTR as was expected. As the study has proved that human error cannot have a negative influence on the safety of the reactor, it can be concluded that the first step has been met which is required, when applying for a waiver to utilise a multi-unit control room for the small pebble bed HTR NPP. Also, from the study, it is recommended that a practical approach be applied for the evaluation of operator duties on a live plant, to optimise the number of operators required. This in turn will position the inherent safe HTR competitively over other power stations. / MIng (Nuclear Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015