Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.

This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.

This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. / KMBT_363 / Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in

Elinor Ostrom (2005: 238) assumes that in understanding the make up and behaviour of institutional systems governing natural resources: “Resource users are explicitly thought of as rational egoists who plunder local resources so as to maximise their own short-term benefits. Government officials are implicitly depicted, on the other hand, as seeking, the more general public interest, having the relevant information at hand and the capability of designing optimal policies.” This thesis examines the validity of this assumption through an historical analysis of the deep-level gold mining industry of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. The main focus of the assessment is on the institutions of ownership – that is, the development of mining rights and title legislation between 1886 and 2008. The study looks at the legislations’ transformation and implementation from the perspective of the gold mining industry – made up of the mining finance houses and the Chamber of Mines of South Africa – and that of the state. The transformation of the mining industry’s institutional framework was both a choice by government as well as that of the firms in the mining industry. The theoretical framework is constructed from four areas of economic thought. These include: the neoclassical and Keynesian schools of macroeconomic thought; industrial organisation and its relevance to the relationship between firms and the market; institutional and new institutional economics; and finally property rights. The determinants of policy design and the impact of such design on firms and industry is examined. The development, implementation and use of the aforementioned legislation is examined from two perspectives, namely, that of preserver or exploiter. Throughout the history of this prominent South African industry, the motivation for action from the industry or government has oscillated between the two extremes of preserver or exploiter over the time period examined. The conclusion is drawn on an overall and broad focus of actions – with a strong focus on the most recent developments in mining legislation – post-1992.

The need to achieve developmental local government in South Africa has necessitated that the municipalities and other government departments pay more attention to the poor so that they can be helped to live more fruitful lives and become the instruments for the growth of local economy. This study seeks to assess the impact of Local Economic Development (LED) initiatives in Mbhashe Local Municipality with special focus on the Maize Production Project (MPP). The areas of Mbhashe municipality that were included in the study include Ndakeni village near Dutywa, Tswele-litye near Willowvale and Madwaleni near Elliotdale. The study followed both the qualitative and quantitative research approaches and the respondents were made up of a sample of MPP beneficiaries from the three areas mentioned above, Community Leaders and the Officials. The objectives of the study were to identify MPP objectives, to identify challenges in the implementation of the MPP, to assess the availability of remedial measures and lastly, to assess whether the community has benefited from the maize production project or not. Among others, the objectives of the MPP were to maximise maize production, to make profit, to create employment opportunities for the unemployed. Only 13 percent of the surveyed beneficiaries believe that their expectations of this initiative were fully met. The majority (two thirds) believe that their expectations were partly met, whilst one in five (20 percent) believe that their expectations were not met at all. The MPP implementation challenges included delays caused by the municipal procurement processes, unfavourable climate conditions, poor service delivery by the appointed service providers who provide tractors, shortage of funds and late start for ploughing. Even though the remedial measures seem to be in place, the implementation and the communication of the strategies remains a big challenge. Furthermore a proportion of the respondents were unhappy with the public participation process that preceded the implementation of the project.According to the findings, two thirds (67 percent) of the surveyed farmers believe that their communities have benefited from the MPP, although one third (33 percent) disagreed. The challenges of an insufficient budget, procurement delays and late commencement of ploughing need to be addressed if the maize production initiative is to yield the desired results.

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / See the attached abstract below

This study investigates whether municipal demarcation addressed the challenge of financial non-viability in the Thulamela and Makhado local municipalities and the Vhembe District Municipality. The study also seeks to establish the main causes of demarcation disputes and whether the Municipal Demarcation Board (MDB) consulted the villagers in the Vuwani and Malamulele areas. The study examines whether financial viability is the sole or core factor in determining municipal boundaries. The study opted for a mixed-methods research approach using positivism and interpretivism research philosophies, including key informant interviews with municipal officials of Thulamela and Makhado local municipalities and the Vhembe District Municipality and a survey of households in the Vuwani area (previously under Makhado Local Municipality) and the Malamulele area (previously under Thulamela Local Municipality). The data were complemented by documentary analysis, including annual reports, financial statements, literature review, and legislation pertaining to financial management and local government. The study provides empirical insights into the relationship between municipal boundary demarcation and financial viability. It suggests that municipal boundary demarcation did not address the challenge of financial non-viability in the Vhembe District. The study also provides that the MDB did consult the villagers of the Vuwani area and that the main causes of demarcation disputes were the location of the newly established Collins Chabane Local Municipality. The study recommends that the South African government and the MDB should consider other factors provided for in the Local Government: Municipal Demarcation Act when demarcation decisions are made and that financial viability cannot be used to trump other factors in the restructuring of local government. The implications of this is that the government must address service delivery challenges in the Malamulele and Vuwani areas and that municipal demarcation cannot be used as a solution for financial challenges, especially in rural municipalities. The study includes implications that the MDB can explore other methods to foster stakeholder engagement and public participation. The study contributes to the body of knowledge within the sub-area of financial viability and public participation in the discipline of Public Administration and Management. / Public Administration and Management / D. Phil. (Public Administration and Management)

Thesis (MBA.) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / Local governments have been identified as the main catalyst for service delivery provisions. However, challenges, such as capacity and lack of financial sustainability, means many municipalities struggle to meet this obligation. This study sought to evaluate the challenges the Musina Local Municipality faces in their attempt to manage their finances for financial sustainability. The study adopted a quantitative approach. A structured self-administered questionnaire was employed as a data collection tool from sampled respondents. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyse the gathered data. The findings of this study indicate that the main challenge confronting the Musina Local Municipality was the low revenue collection. This is mostly as a consequence of community members’ inability to pay for services due to their unaffordability. The findings reveal that the Musina Local municipality made most of its revenue income from property rates, services charged on tariffs and fines. As such, failure by customers often left it in financial distress. The municipality’s poor financial position leads to other challenges, such as inability to pay creditors, lack of financial reserves, diversion of grant funding to fund the operation deficits. The study, therefore, concludes that the municipality is not financially sustainable. The study recommends that the municipality should develop a sound billing and revenue collection structure and place more emphasis on revenue collection of monies owed to them for amenities rendered.

The agricultural sector plays an important role in the South African economy through job creation and earning foreign exchange. The role of agricultural co-operatives increased substantially over the last few decades. The research focuses firstly on the identification of derivative instruments in the market and their applicability to mitigate financial risks co-operatives experience. Secondly, research is conducted about the extent to which co-operatives use these derivatives to hedge financial risks. The research shows that most co-operatives are exposed to financial risks through different activities. It is, however, evident that although the derivative instruments are available, not all co-operatives make use of these instruments. Recommendations for further research include the development of a risk management framework and determining the different economic factors that have an influence on the use of derivatives by South African agricultural co-operatives. / Business Management / M.Comm.

The agricultural sector plays an important role in the South African economy through job creation and earning foreign exchange. The role of agricultural co-operatives increased substantially over the last few decades. The research focuses firstly on the identification of derivative instruments in the market and their applicability to mitigate financial risks co-operatives experience. Secondly, research is conducted about the extent to which co-operatives use these derivatives to hedge financial risks. The research shows that most co-operatives are exposed to financial risks through different activities. It is, however, evident that although the derivative instruments are available, not all co-operatives make use of these instruments. Recommendations for further research include the development of a risk management framework and determining the different economic factors that have an influence on the use of derivatives by South African agricultural co-operatives. / Business Management / M.Comm.