This paper analyzes the current operating situation of financial holding companies in Taiwan. After referring to the operation of financial early warning systems of various countries, the study chooses appropriate financial ratios to establish a financial early warning model for quantitative analysis, evaluate the management efficiency of financial holding companies, discriminate the correct classification rate of prediction probability and rating system, and seek an optimal early warning model as the basis for supervision and governance of financial holding companies. In 2008, the financial tsunami that swept over the global economy resulted in a disastrous loss to the financial industry. To cope with the impact of financial crisis, most countries in the world have developed their early warning models. In Taiwan, the CAMELS framework was adopted for the establishment of Taiwan¡¦s financial early warning system and a risk-oriented auditing system. With the financial liberalization, the government of Taiwan lifted the ban on the business operation of financial holding companies step by step in order to enhance the operating efficiency of financial holding companies and activate the financial market. However, the competitive ability of Taiwan¡¦s financial industry was not significantly improved. Instead, a series of problems with the financial sector erupted one after another. The reasons for such a condition were due to more risks faced by the financial holding companies after financial deregulation. Therefore, this study used 14 financial holding companies in Taiwan as of 2006 as subjects, and constructed a financial early warning system for the original samples by using the following two kinds of models. After factor analysis¡Athe remaining financial variables ¡Alike capital adequary ratio(C2) ¡Atotal debt/equit capital (C3) ¡A total deposit/equit capital(C4), ratio of non-performing loans(A2) the operational expense ratio(M3), efficiency ratio (M4), earnings before taxes/sales(E1) and so on, have more influence on the performances of the financial holding companies in Taiwan. As to the whole efficiency of the self-examination, CAMELS still has good prediction ability and can enable predicting ability increases after joining the risk parameters¡D Predictive sample enters two models and obtains¡Gthe predictive efficiency, type error and type error of Model Two work better than Model One¡Aso in predicting samples, think CAMELS still has good predicition ability and can enable predicting ability increases after joining the risk parameters.

金融機構預警制度在性質上兼具金融管理及經營評鑑之雙重功能，且對於金融危機具有預防及警戒作用之制度，其意義係依據有關之金融法規與金融業務之經營原則，選定若干變數而訂定一套預警函數、指標、臨界值或基準值、判別模型等，將能夠數據化之部份，利用電腦處理資料並進行統計分析與審察，對於未符合規定、逾越警戒範圍之異常數或脫軌狀況，經過測試與核算後，發出預警信號，以促使主管機關或金融機構（或稱銀行）本身提早注意，並加以防範、及時糾正與改善，以促進其健全經營之制度。 近幾年來，在金融國際化與自由化影響下，金融機構業務已日趨複雜，金融監理機關所擔負的責任也越加沈重，為解決此一困境，如何善用場外監控工具，以彌補實地檢查之不足，應是強化當前金融監理制度的有效方案。我們都知道金融監理機關越來越重視場外監控工作，其中最廣為人知且有效發揮其功能的就是「金融預警系統」，它能評估金融機構績效、篩選問題金融機構及顯示有關警訊等功能，如今已成金融監理機關重要輔助工具之一。 關鍵詞：金融機構預警制度、金融機構、金融監理 / Financial early warning system is a line both in the nature of financial management and operational evaluation of the dual function. To the financial crisis, With the role of prevention and warning system. The significance of means in accordance with relevant laws and regulations of the financial business and financial management principles. Certain number of selected variable set of a number of warning function, indication), cutoff or decimal value, discriminant model. According to the number of data, after testing with the accounting, it cause alarm or signal, so that the issue of the fail to meet the requirement, beyond the scope of the warning or to derail the number of abnormal conditions. To encourage the competent authorities or financial institutions (or banks) early attention to itself. By prevent and promptly correct and improve, to promote the sound management of the system. In recent years, financial institutions have become increasingly complex business and responsible for financial supervision authorities increasingly heavy responsibility, under the influence of the financial internationalization and liberalization. To solve this dilemma, how to make the best use of off-site monitoring tool, make up for lack of spot checks. It should be an effective program to strengthen the current financial supervision system. We all know that more and more attention to the financial supervisory authorities to the work of off-site monitoring. One of the most well-known and effective functioning is the “financial early warning system”. It could assess the performance of financial institutions, financial institutions and the issue of screening show that the functions of the police. For the financial supervision authorities, one of the important auxiliary tool, today. Keywords: financial early warning system, financial institutions, financial supervision