This thesis addresses the question, whether the impact of financial development on the relative and absolute indicators of poverty is dependent on the levels of the human capital present in an economy. To answer this question, first we develop a theoretical framework to explain the growth process in the context of financial development assuming that human capital is heterogeneous in terms of the skills and education people have. Then, by using the data sets based on five-year averages over 1960-2010 and 1980-2010, covering 107 developed and developing countries, we empirically investigate the extensions of the theoretical framework developed earlier. These extensions cover the relationships between: 1. Income inequality and economic growth 2. Financial development, human capital and income inequality, and 3. Financial development, human capital and poverty We provide empirical evidence using modern panel data techniques of dynamic and static GMM. The findings elucidate that income inequality and economic growth are inter-dependent on each other. There exists an inverse relationship between initial inequality and economic growth. The changes in income inequality follow the pattern identified by Kuznets (1955) known as Kuznets’ hypothesis. The results also show that financial development helps in reducing income inequalities and in alleviating poverty, only when there is a sufficient level of human capital available. On the basis of our findings we develop the term "effective financial development" which means that financial development is effective in accelerating growth levels, reducing income inequalities and alleviating poverty only if there is a sufficient level of human capital available. The empirical study covers multiple aspects of financial development like private credit extended by banks and other financial institutions, liquid liabilities and stock market capitalization. The results of the empirical investigations are robust to multiple data sets and various indicators of income inequality, financial development, poverty and human capital. The study also provides marginal analysis, which helps in understanding the impact of financial development on inequality and poverty at different levels of human capital. This research study of effective financial development can be a useful learning paradigm for the academics and researchers interested in growth economics and keen to learn how poverty and income inequality can be reduced effectively. This study can also be useful for the policy makers in the financial institutions, because it provides robust empirical evidence that shows that financial development cannot help in alleviating poverty and in reducing inequalities unless there is a sufficient level of human capital available. The findings can be useful for policy makers, particularly in the developing countries where high levels of income inequalities and poverty are big problems. This study explains the mechanism of how effective financial development can be used to reduce income inequalities and to alleviate poverty. It also explains the process of inter-linkages between financial development, human capital, inequality, economic growth and financial instability. The policy makers can also take advantage from the marginal analyses that illustrate the minimum levels of private credit and primary and secondary schooling above which the effects of financial development and human capital become significant in reducing inequalities and poverty.

本文以Minsky金融不穩定假說 (Financial Instability Hypothesis) 為基礎，闡述Minsky對於資本經濟不穩定現象的理論，並且對於Minsky強調不穩定情況下的大政府 (Big Government) 做一更詳細的說明。 金融不穩定假說反應著資本經濟體系的不穩定是一種內生、而且是常態的現象，透過制度結構的改變、法令與經濟單位的外生性反應將經濟維持在穩定的狀況。不穩定的情況始於對經濟前景的過份樂觀態度，隨著危機記憶的過去，風險趨避的態度也逐漸消逝，融通態度變得更為投機，因此提升經濟發生不穩定的機率。 在不穩定一蹴可幾的情形下，Minsky認為，唯有大政府的存在，適當的介入不穩定危機中，不穩定情況才能逐漸趨緩。大政府的存在是透過政府赤字的利潤效果、政府公債的資產負債效果，以及移轉性支付的所得效果來穩定金融、經濟的不穩定。因此，本文以台灣在民國87~88年間發生的金融危機為例，為Minsky的假說做一驗證。實證結果顯示，支持Minsky的假說，並且政府在驗證期間內，的確發揮上述的三效果。

The paper seeks to contribute to the empirical analysis of financial uncertainty and investment from a Post Keynesian perspective. The paper uses the volatility of the exchange rate, the volatility of the stock market index, and the real gold price as indicators for financial uncertainty. An increase in the volatility of a variable is a sufficient, but not a necessary condition for an increase in uncertainty (regarding this variable). The effects of changes in uncertainty on investment are investigated econometrically for the USA, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and France. Financial uncertainty has significant negative effects in the USA and the Netherlands. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

De svenska hushållens skuldsättning har ökat markant sedan 1980-talet och är idag på rekordhöga nivåer. Utifrån detta har frågor kring skuldsättningsnivåns hållbarhet, dess makroekonomiska konsekvenser och bakomliggande faktorer, blivit allt vanligare. Tidigare studier på området visar på brister i standardteorin för analys av hushållens skuldsättning, livscykelhypotesen, då hänsyn inte tas till kreditrestriktioner eller människors oförmåga till helt rationellt handlande. En alternativ analysram fick förnyad uppmärksamhet i samband med finanskrisen i USA 2008 – Hyman Minskys hypotes om finansiell instabilitet – vilken inkorporerar ett fokus på spekulation på kredit- och tillgångsmarknader som förklaring till skuldsättning. Den här uppsatsen undersöker om Minskys hypotes kan appliceras på de svenska hushållen och förklara förändringen i skuldsättning sedan 1980-talet, genom en linjär regressionsmodell på aggregerad data för tidsperioden 1980 till 2012. Resultaten tyder på att den ökade skuldsättningen i stor utsträckning kan förklaras utifrån Minsky hypotes, där en avreglerad kreditmarknad och fallande räntenivåer verkar ha lett till en ökad spekulation i reala tillgångar, ökat risktagande hos både långivare och låntagare och därmed en ökad skuldsättning. / The debt level of Swedish households has increased noticeably since the 1980’s and is today at a record high level. This has given rise to questions regarding the sustainability of the debt level, its macroeconomic implications and driving factors. Previous studies on the subject show deficiencies in the standard theory for analyzing household debt, the life-cycle hypothesis, due to lack of consideration in the theory of credit restrictions and humans’ inability to act completely rationally. An alternative framework for analysis received renewed attention in connection with the financial crisis in the U.S. in 2008 – Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis – incorporating speculation in credit and asset markets as explanations for indebtness. This thesis investigates whether Minky’s hypothesis can be applied on Swedish households and explain the change in debt levels since the 1980’s, through a linear regression model, using aggregate data for the period 1980 to 2012. The results of the thesis indicate that the increased debt level to a large extent can be explained by Minsky’s hypothesis, where a de-regulated credit market and falling interest rates seem to have caused increased speculation in real assets, increased risk-taking by both debtors and creditors and thus an increased level of household debt.

When the financial markets start to shake investors start looking for a safe asset for protection. When people talk about a safe asset, they for the most part refer to gold. But is that really the case? There are few studies about gold as a safe haven however they do not concern the Swedish financial market. That is the purpose of this research; to examine if gold could act as a safe haven in the financial market in Sweden. This is of interest since there is an economic crisis caused by covid19 at this particular moment. The result could help us understand how investors could use gold in their portfolio of investments. To do this we have gathered daily returns from OMXS30, gold, and a 10-year Swedish government bond. With a statistical model we answered the question. When the financial markets start to shake investors start looking for a safe asset for protection. When people talk about a safe asset, they for the most part refer to gold. But is that really the case? There are few studies about gold as a safe haven however they do not concern the Swedish financial market. That is the purpose of this research; to examine if gold could act as a safe haven in the financial market in Sweden. This is of interest since there is an economic crisis caused by covid19 at this particular moment. The result could help us understand how investors could use gold in their portfolio of investments. To do this we have gathered daily returns from OMXS30, gold, and a 10-year Swedish government bond. With a statistical model we answered the question.

Thesis advisor: Harold Petersen / Using insights from Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), we develop a theoretical framework for how speculative bubbles may materialize in securities markets. Our model and empirical analysis show that agents place undue emphasis on recent experience of risk and returns when developing future expectations. We use the aggregate investor allocation to equities (aggregate total market capitalization of equities divided by the price of all real liabilities outstanding), Tobin’s Q (the aggregate market price of equities divided by the replacement cost of nonfinancial firms’ assets), Shiller Total Return Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (TR CAPE), and Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) as proxy variables for bubbles. We find statistically significant, negative relationships between all four of these proxy variables and two dependent variables, Subsequent Ten-Year Annualized Cumulative Equity Market Returns (Nominal and Real), and also Subsequent 10-year Average Losses, thereby providing evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis and suggesting the possibility of speculative bubbles. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2019. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

The global financial system was marked by several crises frequently connected to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). As a precursor to financial crisis events, the phase of Financial Instability (FI) is generally considered from a more macroeconomic perspective with a focus on systemic risk to better identify environmental dynamics in the run-up to such a crisis. However, there is no common understanding about FI on a corporate level that enables organisations to undertake such a strategic analysis. This study aims to explore the corporate meaning of the phenomenon from a managerial perspective. It emphasises executives` lived experience in FI and the underlying procedures in organizational sensemaking. The data was collected using semi-structured interviews with senior executives of German CRE companies with reference to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2007/08. Within the social constructivist paradigm, the study adopts a hermeneutic phenomenological research approach using the theoretical lenses of van Manen's ‘lifeworld existentials' and Weick's ‘properties of sensemaking'. The corporate definition of FI that emerged from this study extends existing ones. The revealed procedures indicate that organisational sensemaking was underrepresented in such a phase. From this, qualitative indicators and implications are developed grounded in behavioural dynamics of the market participants. The findings of this research contribute to theoretical and applied knowledge about FI. The study proposes the systematic incorporation of this definition and sensemaking procedures by executives and institutionalises the monitoring of the developed indicators in SM to better control a CRE company prior, during, or after a phase of FI.

Thesis advisor: Harold Petersen / According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), speculative bubbles do not exist and are impossible. We disagree. If prices are the only observable component of an asset’s value, and they themselves are an aggregated consensus of perceived value, then what about the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is testable? Rather than assume that prices always reflect value (i.e. perfect market efficiency), we maintain that markets are efficient to the extent that one can be confident that tomorrow’s prices will not diverge dramatically or arbitrarily from today’s prices, absent significant new information. Speculative bubbles are not materializing every day, every month, or even every year. But they do have the potential and indeed a tendency to occur from time to time. If markets are efficient, what explains all the trading? Rather than assume rational expectations and a homogenous investor class, we assume four investor classes that diverge in their perception of value (i.e. in their expectation of future returns) and thus trade with each other. Using insights from Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), we develop a theoretical framework for how a speculative bubble might materialize within a modern capitalist economy with securities markets’ that follow a random walk. Obviously, there is no “bubble” variable. We use Tobin’s Q, the ratio of the price of an asset to its replacement cost, and Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio as proxy variables for bubbles. We find statistically significant, negative relationships between both of these proxy variables and our dependent variable, Ten Year Cumulative Returns, thereby providing evidence against the EMH and suggesting the possibility of speculative bubbles. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tatiana Matie Itikawa.pdf: 1349758 bytes, checksum: f16f64c34fa40b4a30123c2ef8ab1489 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-22 / Since the implementation of Plano Real, Brazilian s economy has been getting significant changes that have brought stability and sophistication to the financial system. In addition, since 2004, the Brazilian s investment funds industry has been going through regulatory changes that made it corresponds to 30% of GDP and is the 6th largest in the world. Based on the theory of financial instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky, we intent to analyze the Brazilian investment funds from 2004 to June 2009: a period when the Brazilian economy shifts from stability to instability / Desde a implantação do Plano Real a economia brasileira vem conseguindo mudanças significativas que trouxeram estabilidade e sofisticação ao sistema financeiro. Alem disso, desde 2004, a indústria brasileira de fundos de investimento vem passando por transformações regulatórias que fizeram com que ela corresponda a 30% do PIB e seja a 6º maior do mundo. Com base na teoria da Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira de Hyman Minsky que pretende-se analisar a indústria brasileira de fundos de 2004 a junho de 2009: um período em que a economia brasileira passa da estabilidade para a instabilidade

Les défis auxquels sont confrontés les différents secteurs de l’économie, répondent à l'évolution et à la spécialisation des consommateurs et des producteurs, dont les besoins sont de plus en plus complexes. À cet égard, au cours des 5 dernières années, les marchés de l'électricité ont subi un processus évolutif qui vise à répondre aux besoins de tous les intervenants dans des scénarios de développement durable.Aussi les agents impliqués dans les marchés de l'électricité, exposés à des risques opérationnels, juridiques, éthiques, financiers, entre autres, doivent‐ils se spécialiser pour s'approprier notamment de nouvelles technologies. Cette recherche porte principalement sur l'étude du risque financier tout à s'attachant à prendre en compte les nombreuses spécificités des marchés de l'électricité dans le but d'assurer le bon fonctionnement du marché et de ses participants.Dans les développements antérieurs, certains modèles se sont concentrés sur les phénomènes de pannes de courant électrique, d'instabilité du réseau, de variations de puissance, de réseaux intelligents, entre autres. D'autres études ont abordé la question de la prédiction de variables comme le prix et la stratégie d'entreprise, dans le but d'accroître les profits des participants. Ce projet de thèse propose un modèle financier complexe, qui se traduit par le calcul d'un équilibre de marché à partir des conditions initiales et des contraintes de risque. En utilisant la théorie des jeux, nous expliquons l'instabilité de l’équilibre. Nous montrons, en dépit de la complexité, qu'il est possible de trouver un scénario optimal en termes de rentabilité pour le système et les agents.Ce travail est structuré de la façon suivante. Dans le premier chapitre, une revue des études antérieures est présentée afin d’établir le contexte de la recherche. Le chapitre 2 décrit le marché de l'électricité colombienne avec ses particularités. Dans le chapitre 3, les indicateurs de risque (KRI) sont définis. Ils constitueront une partie fondamentale du modèle complet présenté dans le chapitre 4. Enfin, le chapitre 5, d'une part, présente les résultats obtenus et, d'autre part, discute de différentes voies d'approfondissement. / The challenges faced by different sectors of the economy, respond to the evolution and specialization of consumers and producers, where the needs are becoming more complex. In this sense, during the last 5 years the electricity markets have undergone an evolutionary pro- cess that aims to meet the needs of all stakeholders in the midst of sustainability scenarios.Thus, the agents involved in the electricity market, present a num- ber of exhibitions of operational nature, legal, ethical, financial, among others, which require a specialization allowing the entry of new tech- nologies. This research project focuses on the study of financial risk, which despite being so specific, consider many elements with the aim of ensuring the functioning of the market and its participants.In previous studies, some models have concentrated on the in- vestigation of blackouts phenomena, the stability of the network, the dynamic power system, and Smart grids, among others. Mean- while other investigations have addressed the problem of forecasting different variables like the spot price and corporate strategy, with the aim of increasing the profitability of the participants. Now, this project presents the proposal of a complex financial model, which results in calculating a market equilibrium considering initial condi- tions and risk constraints. Using game theory it demonstrates equi- librium instability and that through complexity it is possible to find an optimal scenario in terms of profitability for the system and the agents.In chapter 1 it carried out a review of previous studies in order to justify the investigation, then Chapter 2 includes a description of the Colombian electricity market, with different specifications. In chap- ter 3 the KRI are defined, and they will be integrated in Chapter 4 as a fundamental part of the comprehensive model. Finally, Chapter 5 includes the results of the study ending with some possible further studies and additional considerations.