Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PEGORER_Andre_2011.pdf: 1145704 bytes, checksum: 884d8c9521fd9f9f5d76049a77bd4651 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-16 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / Given the complexity of financial instruments currently in use, the purpose of this study is to examine, according to the proposed economic theory of Hyman P. Minsky, the factors that led to the recent financial crisis, which began in the mortgage market and expanded throughout the financial system. The residential mortgage market, as well as the financial regulation and supervision frameworks, was examined based on the Financial Fragility Hypothesis and the theory of financial cycles, as proposed by Minsky. The framework that the financial structure created prior to the crisis would not have been possible without the use of credit derivatives. This research finds that the use of credit derivatives were the primary financial instrument that drove the expansion of the credit cycle and produced vast losses during the crisis. This new financial structure, burdened by a complex structured finance, amplified the positive outlook of economic units and that allow very high credit expansion rates for a long period. And its collapse required the ensuing government intervention in the economy. Such intervention, which occurred through fiscal and monetary policies and a direct rescue of failing institutions, was necessary in both preventing the full collapse of the entire financial system and in stabilizing it. This study additionally applies an econometric model of the Minskyan theory to test whether the use of credit derivatives contributed to expanding the fragility of the financial system during its expansion. Finally, the study analyzes the drivers of the strong growth rate of the credit derivatives markets in the context of financial regulation, as such markets are exposed to high risk and therefore have a significant potential to increase financial fragility. / Diante da complexidade dos instrumentos financeiros existentes, este trabalho busca esclarecer, segundo a teoria econômica proposta por Hyman P. Minsky, quais foram os fatores que levaram a crise financeira recente, que teve seu inicio no mercado imobiliário, a se expandir de forma intensa por todo o sistema financeiro internacional. Baseando-se na Hipotese da Fragilidade Financeira e na teoria econômica de ciclos financeiros, propostas por Minsky, foi analisada a estrutura de financiamento imobiliário nos Estados Unidos. As estruturas de regulação e supervisão financeira também foram analisadas aos olhos da teoria Minskyana. Alem disso, foi testada a hipótese de que a estrutura financeira criada neste período não seria possível sem a utilização peculiar dos derivativos de credito. Estes foram identificados como sendo o principal instrumento financeiro tanto no estimulo do ciclo de ascensão do credito quanto no colapso da nova estrutura financeira, que, permeada por produtos estruturados complexos, exacerbou as expectativas positivas dos agentes ao permitir que elevadas taxas de crescimento do credito fossem mantidas por um longo período de tempo. Com o colapso desta estrutura, fez-se necessária a intervenção do governo na economia. As intervenções, que ocorreram através de políticas fiscais, monetárias e de socorro as instituições em estado precário, foram necessárias para evitar o colapso do sistema financeiro e restabelecer a estabilidade do mesmo. Diante destes ocorridos e tento em vista a interação existente entre os diferentes agentes financeiros, foi criado um modelo testável empiricamente para a teoria Minskyana. Este modelo buscou responder se o amplo uso de derivativos de credito foi capaz de aumentar a fragilidade financeira de todo o sistema durante o período de expansão econômica. Por fim, a estrutura regulatória dos derivativos financeiros foi analisada de forma a ilustrar os motivos que levaram ao amplo crescimento do mercado de derivativos de credito, um mercado marcado por elevada exposição a riscos e, portanto, propenso a contribuir com a elevação da fragilidade financeira.

L'étude vise principalement à analyser l'origine de la crise financière globale de 2007 (2007 GFC) au États-Unis et dans les autres économies avancées (AE), ses impacts macroéconomiques sur les économies (de marché) émergentes (EME) ainsi qu'un examen critique de leurs réponses en termes de politique économique. L'étude met en évidence les défis en matière de régulation post crise et discute des implications des réformes qui ont été récemment introduites dans les EME. A cette fin, la thèse se décline en quatre chapitres. Le premier chapitre établit le contexte théorique de la thèse et présente un exposé critique des approches orthodoxe (dominante/néolibérale) et hétérodoxe concernant la fragilité financière et la crise. Après avoir examiné l'approche orthodoxe, on met en évidence le mérite et la pertinence du cadre d'analyse de Minsky connu en tant que « Hypothèses d'instabilité financières » (FIH), afin de comprendre la question de la fragilité dans les économies de marché. Dans le deuxième chapitre, la thèse propose un compte rendu exhaustif des explications et des conséquences de la crise de 2007 en mettant l'accent sur ses prémisses qui se trouvent sur le marché immobilier américain. On met également en évidence les principaux dysfonctionnements du marché financier et du système de régulation qui se trouvent à l'origine de la crise. Le troisième chapitre présente une analyse approfondie du processus de transmission de la crise de 2007 aux EME. Par la suite, on met en évidence les réactions en matière de politique économique (monétaire) de certaines EME sous forme d'étude comparative. Le quatrième chapitre analyse les diverses réformes de régulation financière introduites après la crise. L'examen indique que ces réformes (la loi Dodd Franck Act de 2011 et les nouveaux standards Bâle III) sont d'inspiration néolibérale et qu'elles ne peuvent pas résoudre le problème de fragilité et de crise financière. Sur la base de notre analyse développée au travers de ces quatre chapitres on met en évidence deux principaux résultats. Premièrement, les marchés financiers ne devraient pas être laissés aux vicissitudes des marchés (libres). Il faudrait mettre en place un cadre de régulation pertinent assorti des principes macroprudentiels qui puissent remplacer l'approche dominante de marchés libres efficients. Les orientations de politique et d'analyse de « gouvernement puissant » et de « banque centrale puissante », assumées par l'économiste hétérodoxe Hyman Minsky, semblent appropriées pour comprendre et contenir la fragilité des économies de marché. Ensuite, il est recommandable pour les EME d'adopter des politiques cohérentes avec leurs propres caractéristiques macroéconomiques et avec leur niveau de développement financier et non de s'attacher à une croyance aveugle dans la libéralisation du marché ou dans le paradigme néolibéral. / This study mainly aims to investigate the origin of the global financial crisis of 2007 (2007 GFC) in United States and in other advanced economies(AEs),its macroeconomic impact on the Emerging Market Economies(EMEs) and the critical analysis of their policy response. Study highlights the regulatory challenges of the post-crisis period and discusses the implications of newly introduced regulatory reforms for the EMEs.In this aim the thesis is delineated into four chapters. First chapter of the thesis sets the theoretical context of the dissertation and presents a critical review of orthodox (mainstream/neoliberal) and the heterodox approaches on financial fragility and crisis. After giving a critique of the orthodox approach, merits and relevance of Minsky's framework known as “Financial Instability Hypothesis”(FIH) are emphasized to understand the issue of fragility in capitalist economies. Second chapter of the thesis provides a compelling compendium of various explanations and consequences of the 2007 GFC focusing on its origination in the US housing market. Main dysfunctions of the financial markets and the regulatory system that led to the eruption of financial crisis are highlighted. Third chapter presents an in-depth analysis of the contagion of the 2007 GFC to EMEs. A comparative case studies analysis highlights the policy response of selected EMEs. Fourth chapter of the thesis investigates the various financial regulatory reforms introduced in the aftermath of the 2007 GFC. Analysis in this chapter indicates that introduced reforms (The Dodd- Franck Act of 2011 and the new Basel III Banking Standards) are rooted in neoliberal philosophy so would be unable to solve the issues of fragility and financial crisis. On the basis of our analysis in these four chapters, two major conclusions are emphasized. Firstly, the financial markets should not be left to the vicissitudes of free markets, and a relevant regulatory framework having macroprudential orientations must be implemented to replace the dominant free-market-based approach. Analytical and policy insights (“big government” and “big central bank”) endorsed by heterodox economist Hyman Minsky seem appropriate to understand and constrain the fragility of capitalist market economies. Secondly, it is advisable for EMEs to adopt policies keeping in view their own macroeconomic characteristics and the level of financial development and not by the blind faith in market liberalisation or the neoliberal policy paradigm.

This paper discusses the analytical arguments used to explain the international financial crisis thatbroke out in 2007. First, we stress Ben Bernanke’s global saving glut hypothesis, which holds that the causes of the financial instability in the USA were exogenous and primarily triggered by the actions of developing countries, the effects of which escaped the control of the American financial and monetary authorities. We then review the criticism of this hypothesis and the correction that Bernake himself applied, which admits, as being foremost, the existence of factors other than the actions of developing countries. Below, we present the theory of credit development and regulatory failures, which includes the unprecedented growth in credit and financial leverage amid increasing financial deregulation. Finally, we review the central ideas of Hyman Minsky, which stress the systemic nature of the crisis in the capitalist economy.The theory of credit development and regulatory failures strikes us as the most fitting, as the evidence in its favor is substantial; what is more, Bernanke amended his initial approach and incorporated elements of this hypothesis. The recent study by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) isconsiderably broader, analyzing several centuries of crisis and allowing the recent crisis to be reconciled with the credit development and regulatory failures theory. / Este trabajo discute los argumentos analíticos que se usaron para explicar la crisis financiera internacional que se desató a partir de 2007. Empezamos con la hipótesis del «exceso de ahorro» desarrollada por Ben Bernanke, quien sostiene que la causa de los desequilibrios financieros en EEUU fue exógena, generada, básicamente, por acciones de países en desarrollo, y que sus efectos escapaban al manejo de las autoridades monetarias y financieras norteamericanas. Luego revisamos la crítica que se le hizo y la corrección que él mismo procesó en la que se admite, como elemento prioritario, la existencia de otros factores distintos de las acciones de los países en desa- rrollo. A continuación, presentamos la hipótesis del «desarrollo del crédito y falencias regulatorias» en las que se destaca la ampliación sin precedentes del crédito y el apalancamiento financiero, en medio de creciente desregulación financiera. En tercer lugar, revisamos las ideas centrales de Hyman Minsky que destacan el carácter sistémico de las crisis en la economía capitalista.La hipótesis de crédito y falencia regulatorias nos parece la más acertada, pues la evidencia a su favor es sustancial y, además, también Bernanke corrige su enfoque inicial e incorpora los elementos de este segundo enfoque. El reciente trabajo Reinhart y Rogoff (2009) siendo bastante más amplio, pues estudia varios siglos de crisis, con respecto a la crisis reciente podría ser ubicado dentro de la hipótesis del «desarrollo del crédito y falencias regulatorias».

This paper examines current and suggested iterations of the climate finance architecture and potential risks in capital generation and delivery. Which is achieved via the construction of a literature review which aims to capture the main actors involved in the climate finance architecture. This is then contrasted to a post-keynesian and development economics synthesized framework focusing on liquidity preference, asymmetrical relationships and Minskyan financial instability. Utilizing data on current accounts, private capital flow instability and reserve asset accumulation we are able to show the explanatory power of our synthesized framework in explaining global capital imbalances and its impact on global financial flows and the impact on middle and low income countries. Using the insights gathered from our synthesized framework we then contrast it to the literature review, examining it for observable limitations in capital generation and delivery. In doing so a couple of things are noted, there are significant points of contention relating to capital generation and delivery in the climate finance architecture, potentially resulting in volatile asset prices and a negative impact on effective climate finance. Simultaneously it’s observed that climate finance is not catalytical for financial instability but a growing dependency and intertwining with conventional private financial flows may result in bouts of greater financial instability of climate finance assets. Lastly the paper affirms that there is a need to further examine the role and function of blended finance mechanisms.

Работа посвящена выявлению специфики зомби-компаний в России и предложение рекомендаций для предотвращения и управления зомби-компаниями с целью повышения устойчивости и эффективности российской экономики. Объектом исследования выступают зомби-компании. Исследование этого вопроса не только поможет выявить особенности функционирования зомби-компаний в российской экономике, но и предоставит сравнительные данные, которые могут быть использованы для разработки эффективных мер по борьбе с данной проблемой. / The work is devoted to identifying the specifics of zombie companies in Russia and offering recommendations for the prevention and management of zombie companies in order to increase the sustainability and efficiency of the Russian economy. The object of the study is zombie companies. The study of this issue will not only help to identify the features of the functioning of zombie companies in the Russian economy, but also provide comparative data that can be used to develop effective measures to combat this problem.

La présente thèse tente de savoir s’il est opportun pour les pays en développement les moins avancés de s’engager davantage dans le processus de globalisation financière pour promouvoir leur croissance, et si ce processus influence les effets des instabilités, financière et monétaire, sur cette dernière. A cette fin, la thèse se déroule en trois parties. Avant d’examiner le cadre théorique de la globalisation financière, la première partie esquisse sa genèse avec en arrière-fond la recherche d’une réponse au problème de sa régulation. La deuxième partie s’intéresse à la littérature sur les effets de la globalisation financière sur la croissance, afin d’en tirer les enseignements pour une étude de 72 pays en développement à revenu bas de 1972 à 2011. La troisième partie se focalise sur les impacts de la globalisation financière et des deux instabilités considérées isolément, puis en interaction avec la globalisation sur la croissance à travers deux études empiriques basées sur le même cadre spatio-temporel que l’étude précédente. Ces dernières sont précédées par une revue des relations entre la globalisation financière, l’instabilité financière puis monétaire et la croissance, avec une analyse théorique de l’instabilité financière. Il en ressort que les instabilités, financière et monétaire, ont des effets négatifs sur la croissance, tandis que la globalisation financière, et en particulier la globalisation par l’investissement contrairement à celle par l’endettement, promeut les bienfaits des politiques économiques et du commerce extérieur, en plus de son effet positif direct sur la croissance même en présence des deux instabilités dont elle diminue les effets négatifs. / This thesis examines whether or not it is beneficial for least developed countries to engage more in the process of financial globalization in pursuit of their economic growth, and if this process influences the effects of financial and monetary instability on the latter. This thesis is divided into three parts. Before examining the theoretical framework of financial globalization, the first part sketches its genesis on a background of the research for an answer to the problem of its regulation. The second part focuses on the literature on the impact of financial globalization on growth. This is done in order to draw lessons for the establishment of a study covering 72 low-income developing countries over the period 1972-2011. The third part centers on the impact on economic growth of financial globalization and the two aforementioned types of instability, discussed both separately and in conjunction. Evidence is provided by two empirical studies based on the same spatio-temporal framework as the previous one. These studies are preceded by a review of the literature on the relationship between financial globalization, financial and then monetary instability and growth, in addition to a theoretical analysis of financial instability. This illustrates that financial and monetary instability have negative effects on growth, while financial globalization and in particular investment-globalization, unlike indebtedness-globalization, promotes the benefits of macroeconomic policies and international trade. This can be find in addition to its direct positive effect on growth, even in the presence of the two instabilities of which it reduces the negative effects.

This thesis aims to investigate to what extent the quantitative easing monetary policy tool, applied by the Riksbank, contributed to abnormal returns at the Swedish stock market during Covid-19. The chosen time period is 2007-2022, including the period before and after the implementation of quantitative easing in Sweden in 2015. Furthermore, the chosen time period includes two crises, the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Covid-19 crisis. Two artificial portfolios are created, one representing a high-risk portfolio and the other representing a low-risk portfolio. The thesis applies the ADL error correction model to estimate a potential relationship amongst QE and the returns for each of the computed portfolios. Results show a short-run relationship for both the high-risk and the low-risk portfolio. From the long-run perspective, there is only a relationship found concerning the high-risk portfolio. A modified CAPM-model is used as an interpretation when calculating abnormal returns, where the growth rate of industrial production reflects the expected return. Results show the presence of QE and abnormal returns for both portfolios during the time period of Covid-19, 2020-2022. / Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka i vilken utsträckning Riksbankens kvantitativa lättnader bidrog till abnorm avkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden under Covid-19. Den valdat idsperioden är 2007 – 2022, vilket inkluderar perioden före och efter genomförandet av kvantitativa lättnader i Sverige. Vidare inkluderar den valda tidsperioden två kriser, den globala finanskrisen samt Covid-19-krisen. Två artificiella portföljer konstrueras, där en representerar en högriskportfölj och den andra representerar en lågriskportfölj. Studien tillämpar en ADL error correction modell för att undersöka huruvida det existerar ett samband mellan kvantitativa lättnader och avkastningen för var och en av portföljerna. Resultaten visar ett kortsiktigt förhållande för både högrisk- och lågriskportföljen. Ur det långsiktiga perspektivet hittades endast ett samband för högriskportföljen. En modifierad CAPM-modell används vid beräkning av abnorm avkastning, där variabeln för den industriella produktionstillväxten reflekterar den förväntade avkastningen. Resultaten visar förekomsten av abnorm avkastning i samband de kvantitativa lättnader som genomfördes under Covid-19 för båda portföljerna under tidsperioden 2020–2022.

The main aim of this presented diploma thesis is to help build a systematic understanding of the political and social foundations of global financial markets, their operations and impacts on the global power affairs. The thesis highlights the dynamic complexity of the post financial crisis state of the World with its itra- and inter-social features. It instrumentaly uses critique of a free market agenda and neo-classical economy which contrasts the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), taking into account the dynamic complexity of financial markets. This approach offers analytical tools that can account for crisis through processes endogenous to contemporary financial capitalism. I shall argue that a financially complex system is, according to the FIH, inherently flawed and unstable. After a theoretical and historical review, the thesis discusses various aspects of the process of austerity regime and its social consequences. This provides an opportunity for analyses of the ongoing existence of interstate competition, of militarised foreign policy, and of other international, at times violent conflicts. In an effort to make sense of some of these phenomena, I instrumentaly use the study of geoeconomics that builds on some fundamental assumptions...