This thesis is concerned with the implications of the financial liberalisation of the Chinese economy for savings, investment, monetary policy and the exchange rate, in China. In the first part, the financial repression hypothesis is tested on savings and investment, with the result that there is some evidence to support the complementarity between money and physical capital in China since 1987, although this effect is shown to have become weaker over the sample period as liberalisation has taken place. The second issue is to investigate the consequences of interest rate liberalisation in China, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. There are two main findings. First, raising deposit rates serves to alter the division of production between consumption and investment and to improve the efficiency of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through interest rates. Second, the deregulation of deposit and loan rates leads to less volatility in inflation as interest rates are allowed to partly absorb shocks to the economy. Other monetary policies under financial repression in China are examined as well. The results based on the DSGE model suggest that the interest rate rule is more effective and powerful than the conventional money growth rule and the adjustment of the required reserve ratio helps little to contain inflation. In addition, the administrative window guidance on bank loans contributes to less volatility of inflation and stabilises the deregulation process of deposit and loan rates. The final part of the thesis examines the sources of the volatility in real exchange rate, which are shown to stem essentially from demand shocks, although up to a quarter of the volatility comes from relative supply disturbances, perhaps reflecting the importance of supply-side reform in China since the early 1990s.

近二十年來，中國大陸與印度無論在經濟發展，或是國民平均所得都呈現出快速的成長，它也直接促進了兩國的金融體系發生結構性的改變。在資金流動持續的成長及資本市場自由化的時代下，金融擴張、多樣性及全球化已成為必然的趨勢。所以，90年代以來金融自由化已成為中、印兩國，在經濟發展的政策上最重要的一項議題。 本文的研究範圍：是以中國大陸與印度銀行部門的市場化改革作比較研究，分析兩國銀行部門從金融抑制到自由化的過程，依據轉型的過程要素：自由化、穩定化、私有化、制度建立及結構改變等評估指標，檢視中、印兩國銀行部門改革的成效。並採取歷史制度研究途徑及比較法，分別從中、印兩國的國內政經環境、國際金融及國際建制的規範，比較兩國銀行部門改革的原因與轉型的差異，以深入了解中國大陸及印度銀行部門改革的目標及對經濟發展的影響。 研究發現印度銀行體系的制度建立及監管的規範雖然較中國大陸完善，但是在資金運用的效能及經濟的發展上都不如中國大陸。它主要的原因在於兩國的政治體制不同，影響了改革的執行成效。因此，制度的建立與執行要能互相配合才會有實質的成效，否則即使有了完善的制度，但是缺乏貫徹到底的執行力，最終仍將走向失敗。 / For the past twenty years, China and India have seen rapid growth in both economic development and Gross National Product (GNP), which prompted structural transformation in the financial sectors of both countries as well. In an age of growing capital flows and liberalizing capital market, the trends of financial expansion, variety and globalization have become inevitable. Therefore, since the 1990s, financial liberalization has become the issue of utmost importance in economic development policy-making in China and India. This study aims to conduct a comparative research of market reforms in the banking sectors in China and India to analyze the processes from financial repression to liberalization in the banking sectors of both countries. With the factors of transformation—liberalization, stabilization, institutionalization, and structural transformation—as indicators for assessment, this study examines the effectiveness of banking reforms in China and India. By means of historical institutionalist approach and comparative method, this study compares the reasons for reforms and differences in transformations between the banking sectors in the two countries in terms of domestic politico-economic environment, and standards of global finance/ international institutions so as to delve into the reform objectives for banking sectors in China and India and their influence on economic development. The findings of this study indicate that Indian banking sector have sounder institutions and regulations than China; however, they lag behind their counterparts in China in terms of efficient application of funds and economic development. The key factor is that the two countries have different political institutions, which influences the effectiveness of banking reforms. Therefore, only a coordinated effort of institutionalization and implementation may yield substantial results. Otherwise, a sound system without the executive power to carry through is yet doomed to failure.

Cette thèse étudie les évolutions du marché du crédit de long terme (les censos) dans l'Espagne moderne. Après une description des acteurs et du fonctionnement de ces marchés dans le premier chapitre, le deuxième chapitre s'intéresse aux conséquences de la fragmentation juridictionnelle sur l'intégration du marché du crédit. Ensuite, le troisième chapitre étudie le fonctionnement et la gouvernance d'un ordre religieux en particulier et met en évidence le rôle d'intégration joué par les institutions ecclésiastiques. Enfin, le dernier chapitre examine la répression financière exercée par la Couronne à la fin du XVIIIe siècle et son rôle déterminant dans le retrait des institutions religieuses des marchés du crédit et la contraction de l'offre de crédit qui s'en est suivie. / This project analyses the evolutions of long-term credit markets (the censos) in eraly modern Spain. After a description of the actors and the functioning of these markets in the first chapter, the second chapter focuses on the consequences of jurisdictional fragmentation on credit market integration. Then, the third chapter examines the functioning and the economic governance of a single religious order and sheds light on the integration role performed by ecclesiastical institutions. The last chapter studies the financial repression implemented by the Crown in the late eighteenth century and its decisive role in the withdrawal of religious institutions from the credit market and the subsequent credit contraction.