M.Com. (Financial Economics) / This study investigates the best measure of extreme losses in the South African equity derivatives market, and applies this to estimate the size of a default fund for Safcom, the central counterparty (CCP) for exchange-traded derivatives in South Africa. The predictive abilities of historic simulation Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional VaR (CVaR), Extreme VaR (EVaR) calculated using a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and stress testing are compared during historic periods of stress in this market. The iterative cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) is applied to identify significant and large, positive shifts in the volatility of returns, thus indicating the start of a stress period. The FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index Future (known as the ALSI future) is used as a proxy for this market. Two key periods of stress are identified, namely the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. The maximum daily losses in the ALSI during these stress periods were observed on 28 October 1997 and 6 October 2008. For the VaR-based loss estimates, 2500 trading days’ returns up to 28 October 1997 and 2750 trading days’ returns up to 6 October 2008 is used. The study finds that Extreme VaR predicts extreme losses during these two historic periods of stress the most accurately and is consequently applied to the quantification of a default fund for Safcom, using 2500 daily returns from 5 June 2003 to 31 May 2013. The EVaR-based estimation of a default fund shows that the current Safcom default fund is sufficient to provide for market losses equivalent to what was suffered during the 2008 global financial crisis, but not sufficient for the magnitude of losses suffered during the 1997 Asian crisis.

No description available.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Ted C. Schroeder / Considerable risk is present in today’s ranching world; especially price and production risk. A producer who can tolerate more risk, and is knowledgeable about how to effectively manage price and production risk, may have opportunity to increase profitability relative to a highly risk averse producer. The purpose of this study is to investigate perceptions and sources of risk, identify how risk management is conducted, assess price and production risks, and view differences between producers’ perceptions versus their attitudes towards risk and factors that affect risk. In order to investigate cow-calf producers’ perceptions of risk, an instrument was created to survey beef cow-calf producers in the Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA). Respondents provided information on their production practices, marketing methods, operating decisions and risk related to their cow-calf operations. A risk preference score for individual producers was developed from specific survey questions to determine three objectives: to classify producers’ risk preferences related to their operating decisions; determine operating decisions that affect risk preferences; and identify what production and marketing practices in which producers were willing to risk for a chance to increase the net returns to their operations. A bi-directional causality between risk aversion and operation characteristics was illustrated between how operating decisions are related to risk aversion, and risk aversion is related to operating decisions. Factors that were found to influence risk aversion were socioeconomic factors such as age, off-farm income, debt-to-asset ratio, farm size, and number of cows owned, as well as comparative advantages of producer’s: use and analysis of new technology, business planning skills and marketing skills. Models showing how risk aversion was related to production management focused on producer’s financial soundness, production practices and marketing methods, specific to retained ownership. Producers who would participate in value-added programs to increase returns to their operation have a comparative advantage in marketing skills, own more cattle, and are less diversified in terms of their farm enterprise incomes.

Corporate governance models segregate the role of risk manager and risk taker to allow for independent challenge of risk-related decisions. Numerous studies have demonstrated that broad personality traits predict risk-related behaviour. While prospect theory revealed a natural preference towards risk-taking in a negative risk frame, studies have also shown the influence of personality traits on risk preference. We investigated the less reported subject of the potential influence of risk stakeholder personality on risk decision making in the corporate environment. We expected to observe that the personality traits of risk takers and risk managers will differ as a consequence of occupational self-selection. Further, we expected that such personality differences will produce disparate risk preferences between risk takers and risk managers, supporting the governance expectation of independent challenge of risk-related decisions. A sample of investment banking risk stakeholders (n = 100) completed the HEXACO–PI–R as well as a vignette-based risky choice questionnaire involving positively and negatively framed financial risk scenarios. We found homogeneity in personality traits between risk takers and risk managers but observed a noticeable bias toward risk-taking in the negative frame by risk managers. High Honesty–Humility and Conscientiousness scores in both groups may negate the risk of irresponsible risk-taking or undesirable risk behaviour. The results of this study confirm the importance of personality screening for job applicants and should also alert risk practitioners to potential weaknesses in the independent challenge of risk-related decisions as a result of personality homogeneity among risk stakeholders.

Corporate governance models segregate the role of risk manager and risk taker to allow for independent challenge of risk-related decisions. Numerous studies have demonstrated that broad personality traits predict risk-related behaviour. While prospect theory revealed a natural preference towards risk-taking in a negative risk frame, studies have also shown the influence of personality traits on risk preference. We investigated the less reported subject of the potential influence of risk stakeholder personality on risk decision making in the corporate environment. We expected to observe that the personality traits of risk takers and risk managers will differ as a consequence of occupational self-selection. Further, we expected that such personality differences will produce disparate risk preferences between risk takers and risk managers, supporting the governance expectation of independent challenge of risk-related decisions. A sample of investment banking risk stakeholders (n = 100) completed the HEXACO–PI–R as well as a vignette-based risky choice questionnaire involving positively and negatively framed financial risk scenarios. We found homogeneity in personality traits between risk takers and risk managers but observed a noticeable bias toward risk-taking in the negative frame by risk managers. High Honesty–Humility and Conscientiousness scores in both groups may negate the risk of irresponsible risk-taking or undesirable risk behaviour. The results of this study confirm the importance of personality screening for job applicants and should also alert risk practitioners to potential weaknesses in the independent challenge of risk-related decisions as a result of personality homogeneity among risk stakeholders.

<p>Companies need capital in order to run their business, do necessary investments and grow larger. These actions are combined with high costs where both internal and external financing might be appropriate. Capital structure is the relation between debt and equity.</p><p>In this thesis we have focused on the decision behind the capital structure. We have focused on the road freight industry and we have tried to find out how management reason about their decision. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to describe and analyze SMEs’ decision of capital structure within the road freight sector in the Jönköping region. Emphasise is put on the different aspects that influence the capital structure decision and to what extent this is a strategic issue coloured by personal beliefs.</p><p>To fulfill the purpose mainly a qualitative approach with primary data from structured interviews has been used. The interviews were conducted face-to-face with six owner and/or managers. Further on, secondary data from the firms’ annual reports were used and analyzed.</p><p>The pecking order theory explains that firms, especially SMEs, prefer to finance their businesses with internally generated funds. Focus of the theoretical part are on theories of what factors that affects the capital structure decision, how this can be argued to be a strategic question for SMEs, how risk affects the capital structure decision and how this decision is made in a family business. These theories are presented to shed light on the capital structure decision making process of SMEs.</p><p>From this study it is found that the majority of the companies’ prefer internal financing i.e. reinvested earnings, and as a second alternative to use debt in form of bank loans. The study also shows that the reasons behind this preferred order are the will of being independent, previous experience and managements’ risk-taking propensity. We believe that these factors combined with beliefs about debt and realized need for debt works as a base for how a capital structure strategy is discussed, formed and developed. From this study it can also be concluded that risk indirect affects the capital structure decision and that a restrictive view on debt leads to a restrictive desire to grow since a fast growth in most cases needs to be financed by debt. Last, the study concludes that even though the studied firms prefer to finance with retained earnings they all use debt more or less.</p>

It is well known that the general geometric L´evy market models are incomplete, except for the geometric Brownian and the geometric Poissonian, but such a market can be completed by enlarging it with power-jump assets as Corcuera and Nualart [12] did on their paper. With the knowledge that an incomplete market due to jumps can be completed, we look at other cases of incompleteness. We will consider incompleteness due to more sources of randomness than tradable assets, transactions costs and stochastic volatility. We will show that such markets are incomplete and propose a way to complete them. By doing this we show that such markets can be completed. In the case of incompleteness due to more randomness than tradable assets, we will enlarge the market using the market’s underlying quadratic variation assets. By doing this we show that the market can be completed. Looking at a market paying transactional costs, which is also an incomplete market model due to indifference between the buyers and sellers price, we will show that a market paying transactional costs as the one given by, Cvitanic and Karatzas [13] can be completed. Empirical findings have shown that the Black and Scholes assumption of constant volatility is inaccurate (see Tompkins [40] for empirical evidence). Volatility is in some sense stochastic, and is divided into two broad classes. The first class being single-factor models, which have only one source of randomness, and are complete markets models. The other class being the multi-factor models in which other random elements are introduced, hence are an incomplete markets models. In this project we look at some commonly used multi-factor models and attempt to complete one of them. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2011.

Dans cette Thèse, trois cas pratiques sont étudiées dans le domaine de la gestion des fonds où les risques d’investissement semblent mal perçus du fait d’ambiguïtés dans la mesure de risque. Ces ambiguïtés sont analysées comme une erreur élémentaire où une trop forte simplification de la réalité qui peut aboutir à une approche confuse. Les trois études sont développées dans un contexte usuel d’investissement, et portent sur les actions pour la première, sur les obligations pour la seconde et sur les devises pour la troisième. Elles s’inscrivent dans les conventions traditionnelles de la théorie de la finance. Les trois études, qui font l’objet de chapitres distincts, montrent comment la perception de risque peut être troublée dès les premiers traitements des données financières et avant même une éventuelle évaluation des risques. Plusieurs mesures de risque, pourtant courantes dans la finance, apparaissent réductrices ou mal adaptées aux circonstances dans lesquelles elles sont utilisées. Nous décrivons comment, dans certains cas, des mauvaises décisions d’investissement peuvent être prises du fait d’erreur de mesure, ou comment dans d’autres cas le débat dans la littérature économique a été orienté vers de mauvaises directions. Les études soulignent que l’appréciation des risques financiers est loin d’être triviale, même dans les domaines habituellement considérés comme maîtrisés. Une approche systématique a été adoptée pour établir à quel moment précis les analyses intègrent une mauvaise perception du risque. / Three situations are studied in the field of fund management where investment risk may be misperceived due to an ambiguity in the way risk is being measured. The case studies involve equity, bonds and currencies respectively, and are inscribed in the traditional conventions of finance theory. It is shown how the perception of risk can fail immediately in the initial data processing stage even before a propoer analysis. Several risk measures that are frequently used in finance are shown to be defunct or badly adapted for the circumstances in which they tend to be used. We described how in certain cases sub-optimal investment decisions are taken based on an error in measurement, or how in certain cases the debate in the economic literature has been disorientated. The studies underline that the appreciation of financial risk is far from trivial, even in the realms that are generally considered as well-established.

This thesis focuses on applying order-statistics-based inferences on lifetime analysis and financial risk measurement. The first problem is raised from fitting the Weibull distribution to progressively censored and accelerated life-test data. A new orderstatistics- based inference is proposed for both parameter and con dence interval estimation. The second problem can be summarised as adopting the inference used in the first problem for fitting the generalised Pareto distribution, especially when sample size is small. With some modifications, the proposed inference is compared with classical methods and several relatively new methods emerged from recent literature. The third problem studies a distribution free approach for forecasting financial volatility, which is essentially the standard deviation of financial returns. Classical models of this approach use the interval between two symmetric extreme quantiles of the return distribution as a proxy of volatility. Two new models are proposed, which use intervals of expected shortfalls and expectiles, instead of interval of quantiles. Different models are compared with empirical stock indices data. Finally, attentions are drawn towards the heteroskedasticity quantile regression. The proposed joint modelling approach, which makes use of the parametric link between the quantile regression and the asymmetric Laplace distribution, can provide estimations of the regression quantile and of the log linear heteroskedastic scale simultaneously. Furthermore, the use of the expectation of the check function as a measure of quantile deviation is discussed.

The purpose is to investigate whether there are any significant differences in risk                                                             tolerance in equity investments between the genders. Further, the study intends to                                                        investigate wether independent factors such as age, income, education and                                                                  confidence effects the risk tolerance of an individual.Method: The study has adapted a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The                                                      primary data has been collected through surveys and semi-structured interviews.                                                           The adopted research approach  is deductive and the study population consists of                                                                men and women in Sweden, which are or have been active equity investors. Theory: Describes the concept of risk tolerance in financial decisions. The theory further                                                             explains an individual’s descisionprocess in relation to risk, with its overvaluation                                                         to a positive probability and its undervaluation to a negative risk. Further, a                                                     several factors are explained and discussed that influence an individual’s risk                                                        tolerance. Conclusion: Differences in risktolerance between the genders has been proved. Furthermore,                                                             the influence of the factors age, income and education are statistically proved.                                                                Finally the impact of self confidence were proven through qualitative data. / Syfte: Syftet är att undersöka om det finns några signifikanta skillnader i riskbenägenhet                                                        vid aktieplacering mellan könen. Vidare ämnar studien undersöka om oberoende                                                           faktorer som ålder, inkomst, utbildning och självförtroende påverkar                                                                        riskbenägenheten hos en individ. Metod: Studien har antagit en kombination av kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod.                                                                         Primärdata har således samlats in via enkätundersökningar samt delvis                                                                           strukturerade intervjuer. Studiens sekundärdata består av tidigare forskning.                                            Forskningsansatsen som antagits är deduktiv och studiens population utgörs av                                                  män och kvinnor i Sverige, vilka är eller någon gång har varit aktiva                                                                         aktieplacerare. Teori: Beskriver begreppet riskbenägenhet vid finansiella beslut. Även teori som                                                                         förklarar en individs beslutsprocess i förhållande till risk, med dess                                                                                   övervärderingar till en positiv sannolikhet och dess undervärdering till en negativ                                                          risk. Vidare förklaras och diskuteras ett flertal faktorer som påverkar en individs                                                           riskbenägenhet. Slutsats: Skillnad i riskbenägenhet mellan könen har påvisats. Vidare har påverkan från                                                                faktorerna ålder, inkomst och utbildning statistiskt bevisats. Avslutningsvis                                             bevisades självförtroendes påverkan genom kvalitativ data.