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Cette thèse est une contribution au problème du pronostic des systèmes complexes. Plus précisément, elle concerne l'approche basée modèles et est composée de trois contributions principales. Tout d'abord, dans une première contribution une définition du concept de pronostic est proposée et est positionnée par rapport aux concepts de diagnostic et de diagnostic prédictif. Pour cela, une notion de contrainte temporelle a été introduite afin de donner toute pertinence à la prédiction réalisée. Il a également été montré comment le pronostic est lié à la notion d'accessibilité en temps fini.La deuxième contribution est dédiée à l'utilisation des observateurs à convergence en temps fini pour la problématique du pronostic. Une méthodologie de pronostic est présentée pour les systèmes non linéaires à échelle de temps multiple. Puis, une troisième contribution est introduite par l'utilisation des observateurs par intervalle pour le pronostic. Une méthodologie de pronostic est proposée pour les systèmes non linéaires incertains à échelle de temps multiple. Pour illustrer les différents résultats théoriques, des simulations ont été conduites sur un modèle de comportement d'un oscillateur électromécanique. / This thesis is a contribution to the problem of a complex system prognosis. More precisely, it concerns the model-based prognosis approach and the thesis is divided into three main contributions. First of all, a definition of prognosis concept is proposed as a first contribution and is positionned in reference to the diagnosis and predictive diagnosis concepts. For that, a notion of temporal constraint is introduced to give all pertinence to the prediction achieved. It is also shown how prognosis is linked to the finite time reachability notion. The second contribution is dedicated to the use of finite time convergence observer for the prognosis problem. A prognosis methodology is presented for nonlinear multiple time scale systems. Then, a last contribution is introduced through the use of interval observer for the prognosis problem. A pronognosis methodology is proposed for nonlinear uncertain multiple time scale systems. To illustrate the theorical results, simulations are achieved based on a model of an electromechanical oscillator system.

In the guidance literature, minimizing miss distance along with optimizing the energy usage had been an objective for several decades. In current day applications, additional terminal performance such as impact angle and impact time are of paramount importance. These terminal constraints increase warhead effectiveness and survivability of the interceptor. This thesis contributes to the design of guidance laws addressing terminal constraints such as impact angle, impact time, and both impact time as well as impact angle, in addition to interception of targets. In the first part of the thesis, the guidance laws which ensure the alignment of the interceptor at a desired impact angle within a finite time is proposed using different variants of sliding mode control(SMC).The impact angle is first redefined in terms of line-of-sight angle and then the impact angle problem is converted to a simpler problem of controlling line-of-sight angle and their rates. The sliding mode capturability and interpretation of the guidance laws are presented. In order to cater to very large heading angle errors, which give rise to negative closing speed initially, modifications to the guidance laws are also suggested. The modifications to the guidance laws for avoiding singularities, which may be encountered during implementation, due to the inherent nature of terminal SMC, are suggested. However, the guidance laws, which alleviates the possibility of such singularities completely, are also designed by using non singular terminal SMC. The two loop guidance and control, for a skid-to-turn cruciform interceptor in the pitch plane, is also proposed with an autopilot designed using the concept of dynamic SMC. The guidance laws addressing impact angle constraint for three dimensional scenarios are also presented. Unlike the usual approach of decoupling the three dimensional engagement in to two mutually orthogonal planar engagements, the guidance laws are derived using coupled engagement dynamics. These guidance laws are designed using conventional and non singular terminal SMC and provide asymptotic and finite time alignment of the intercept or to the desired impact angles, respectively. Next, the SMC based guidance laws which ensure the interception of targets at pre-specified impact times is proposed in this thesis. The guidance law is first designed for stationary targets and then extended to constant velocity targets using the notion of predicted interception point. A switching surface is designed using the concepts of collision course and time-to-go with non-linear engagement dynamics and its role in achieving the objectives is also discussed. In order to account for large heading angle errors and even for negative initial closing speeds, different methods of estimation of time-to-go, resulting in two different guidance laws, are used. Unlike the existing guidance laws, the proposed guidance laws achieve an impact time even less than its initially estimated value. The flexibility in selecting a desired impact time is also exploited using the maximum available acceleration information. A cooperative salvo attack strategy, based on the proposed impact time guidance law, with a desired impact time chosen in real time using a centralized coordination algorithm, is proposed for stationary targets. The coordination manager determines a common impact time based on time-to-goof the interceptors, by minimizing the total switching surface deviations which in turn reduces the control effort. The thesis also proposes a SMC based guidance strategy which addresses impact angle and impact time constraints simultaneously. This guidance scheme is based on switching between impact time and impact angle guidance laws based on certain conditions. Unlike existing impact time guidance laws, the proposed guidance strategy takes into account the curvature of the trajectory due to the impact angle requirement. The interceptor first corrects its course to nullify the impact time error and then aims to achieve interception with desired impact angle. In order to reduce the transitions between the two guidance laws, a novel hysteresis loop is introduced in the switching conditions. Initially stationary targets are considered, and later the same guidance scheme is extended to constant velocity targets using the notion of predicted interception point. Theclaimsofalltheguidancelawsarevalidatedwithextensivesimulationsandtheir performances are compared with existing guidance laws. Although all the guidance laws derived in the thesis are based on the assumption of constant speed interceptors, their performances are evaluated with a time-varying speed interceptor model, subjected to aerodynamic conditions, to validate their efficacy. The implementation of impact time guidance on time-varying speed interceptors is a formidable challenge in the guidance literature. Such implementations have also been presented in the thesis after introducing the notion of average speed and shown to yield satisfactory performance.