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在次級房貸風暴之後，各國赤字大幅增加。如希臘與愛爾蘭，其主權債務違約風險皆大幅升高。面對這樣的困境，政府該如何實施財政政策，以防止主權債務危機的發生?本篇文章在DSGE模型之下，以Uribe(2006)的設定為基礎架構，額外增加了產出方程式以使國家產出能由模型內生決定。並加入了政府支出與產出之間的關係式，以討論在面對正的景氣衝擊與負的景氣衝擊時，政府使用正向景氣循環政策和負向景氣循環政策對於政府倒債率的影響。最後發現當政府使用負向景氣循環政策和較弱的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有反向的關係。而當政府使用較強的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有正向的關係。從此結果，我們推論在後金融海嘯時期，希臘與愛爾蘭等國家，應使用較強的順景氣循環政策以降低其主權債務危機的發生機率。 / After the subprime crisis, many government deficits rose sharply, especially Greece and Ireland. Their default rate rose greatly than before. Under this difficult situation, what kind of fiscal policy should the government enforces to prevent it from bankruptcy? We follow the model in Uribe (2006) as our framework but adding the production function and the government expenditure function to analyze the effects of different fiscal policies on the government default rate. The results tell us that when the government uses countercyclical fiscal policy and weak procyclical fiscal policy, the change of the default rate is opposite to the technical shock. On the contrary, when the government uses strong procyclical fiscal policy, the default rate is positive relation with the technical shock. This implies that governments, such as Greece and Ireland, should use strong procyclical fiscal policy to reduce their sovereign risk under the recession.

This thesis contains four essays, which studies the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and monetary policy quantitatively. The first essay investigates whether Swedish postwar business cycles have been generated by domestic or foreign shocks and finds that they are about equally important. In the second essay, the effects of government budget deficits on interest rates in Sweden are studied in a small open economy framework. The empirical results, which have high power due to very large swings in deficits and interest rates, provide support that larger deficits produce higher interest rates and thus give support against the ricardian view. The third essay seeks to identify optimal social insurance and redistribution levels in Sweden and the U.S. with respect to temporary and permanent idiosyncratic productivity risks. The results indicate that Sweden should reduce the social security level while the U.S. should approximately maintain the current level. In the last essay, the small sample properties of a well-known statistical test for the Lucas critique - the super exogeneity test - is studied in a general equilibrium environment. The results indicate that the super exogeneity test do not have sufficient power in small samples. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

<p>Can a country function without a legislative framework able to inform decisionmaking processes taken at different spheres of government? To what extent would actions conducted at various&nbsp / spheres of government be efficiently coordinated and informed by appropriate channels of constitutional provisions and legislative amendments to consolidate financial and intergovernmental&nbsp / fiscal relations policy-making tools for the realization of an efficient local developmental state? Answers to the above mentioned two questions refer to normative fiscal policy principles and&nbsp / prescriptive instruments of intergovernmental fiscal transfer design, whose orientation suggests better ways of framing sound and coherent programs and interventions that strengthen&nbsp / cooperative synergy and transfer knowledge of experience gained in empirical investigations and various South African environments of higher academic learning. Growing evidence&nbsp / acknowledges South Africa as one of the young democratic countries that has been going through a period of transition over the past three years as it changes its system of public finance from&nbsp / a structure suited to the old apartheid system to one consistent with the new South African Constitutional dispensation. While the former system was highly centralized, the newconstitution makes a clear commitment to municipal governments as important providers of government services, with greater tax and spending powers. Even as local autonomy has been substantially increased,&nbsp / there remains uncertainty as to the most appropriate design of a system of intergovernmental fiscal grants to metropolitan areas and townships. This study analyses this situation and further&nbsp / develops a generic design for intergovernmental transfers and its suitability to the realities of South African municipalities on the ground within the framework of Cooperative Government. This&nbsp / study concludes that fiscal&nbsp / management, as a cross-cutting discipline, is a&nbsp / powerful instrument for government&rsquo / s revenue sources at the national, provincial and local government levels.&nbsp / Financial management should be regarded as a co-coordinating mechanism managing government&rsquo / s expenditure and catalyzing sound financial relationship for an efficient management in the&nbsp / country, thus allowing government to budget effectively for the delivery of goods and services in order to attain the constitutional mandate of a developmental state.</p>

University of Macau / Faculty of Business Administration / Department of Finance and Business Economics

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

La ricerca sugli effetti negativi del debito sulla crescita economica si è concentrata principalmente sui paesi a reddito medio (PRM) e paesi con accesso ai mercati finanziari, un gruppo PRM con accesso illimitato ai mercati internazionali dei capitali. La letteratura sugli effetti della volatilità macroeconomica sulla crescita, che si e' concentrata sui PRM, è stata sviluppata nel 1990. Un numero limitato di studi ha tentato di analizzare il legame tra debito e crescita in paesi a basso reddito. Questa raccolta di ricerche tenta di colmare questa lacuna, esaminando l'applicabilità del quadro concettuale che collega volatilita', debito e crescita ai paesi a basso reddito. In particolare, le ricerche si concentrano sul ruolo della politica fiscale in paesi a basso reddito, la sua pertinenza per raggiungere e mantenere la sostenibilità del debito ed evitare crisi con conseguenze negative protratte sulla crescita economica. I risultati indicano che le politiche fiscali nei paesi a basso reddito non hanno necessariamente un ruolo chiave nel garantire il rispetto del vincolo di bilancio intertemporale di governo e nel mantenere la sostenibilità del debito. Questo risultato è in netto contrasto con l'attuale ricerca economica sulla sostenibilità fiscale nei PRM e porta a diverse implicazioni per la condotta della politica economica in paesi a basso reddito. / Research on the negative effect of debt on economic growth has mainly focused on middle income countries (MICs) and market access countries (MACs), the latter a group of MICs with unconstrained access to international capital markets. Literature on the effects of macroeconomic volatility on growth focusing on MICs was developed in the 1990’s. Few studies have attempted to analyze the nexus between debt and growth in low income countries (LICs). This collection of papers attempts to fill this gap, by examining the applicability of the conceptual framework linking volatility, debt and growth to LICs. Specifically, the papers focus on the role of fiscal policy in LICs, its relevance for achieving and maintaining debt sustainability deterring economic crisis and excessive growth slumps. Results indicate that LICs fiscal policies do not necessarily play a key role in ensuring respect of the government intertemporal budget constraint and debt sustainability. This result is in stark contrast with existing economic research on fiscal sustainability in MICs leading to different implications for policy conducts in LICs.

<p>Can a country function without a legislative framework able to inform decisionmaking processes taken at different spheres of government? To what extent would actions conducted at various&nbsp / spheres of government be efficiently coordinated and informed by appropriate channels of constitutional provisions and legislative amendments to consolidate financial and intergovernmental&nbsp / fiscal relations policy-making tools for the realization of an efficient local developmental state? Answers to the above mentioned two questions refer to normative fiscal policy principles and&nbsp / prescriptive instruments of intergovernmental fiscal transfer design, whose orientation suggests better ways of framing sound and coherent programs and interventions that strengthen&nbsp / cooperative synergy and transfer knowledge of experience gained in empirical investigations and various South African environments of higher academic learning. Growing evidence&nbsp / acknowledges South Africa as one of the young democratic countries that has been going through a period of transition over the past three years as it changes its system of public finance from&nbsp / a structure suited to the old apartheid system to one consistent with the new South African Constitutional dispensation. While the former system was highly centralized, the newconstitution makes a clear commitment to municipal governments as important providers of government services, with greater tax and spending powers. Even as local autonomy has been substantially increased,&nbsp / there remains uncertainty as to the most appropriate design of a system of intergovernmental fiscal grants to metropolitan areas and townships. This study analyses this situation and further&nbsp / develops a generic design for intergovernmental transfers and its suitability to the realities of South African municipalities on the ground within the framework of Cooperative Government. This&nbsp / study concludes that fiscal&nbsp / management, as a cross-cutting discipline, is a&nbsp / powerful instrument for government&rsquo / s revenue sources at the national, provincial and local government levels.&nbsp / Financial management should be regarded as a co-coordinating mechanism managing government&rsquo / s expenditure and catalyzing sound financial relationship for an efficient management in the&nbsp / country, thus allowing government to budget effectively for the delivery of goods and services in order to attain the constitutional mandate of a developmental state.</p>

Objective of the study. This study is about the intergovernmental fiscal relations in South Africa. The primary objective is to review the international experience of fiscal decentralisation with the view to providing answers to the issue of revenue sharing, problems of expenditure and revenue assignment, and the impact of the whole decentralization on the size of the public sector in South Africa. Methodology. The methodology adopted in this study includes (1) a review and comparison of the practise of fiscal decentralisation in four countries, and (2) an econometric investigation into the impact of fiscal decentralisation on the size of the public sector, using time series quarterly data for the period 1993/94 to the second quarter of 1998/99. Regarding the econometric investigation, a single linear regression model including fiscal decentralisation, fiscal collusion, income and population are assumed to influence the size of the public sector. Study Findings. Our analysis provides certain interesting results. First, the countries reviewed tend to assign functions in a manner that is consistent with the public finance theory that functions that are distributive in nature and those that are meant to ensure the country's stability should be reserved exclusively for the federal or national government. Whereas the Australian, Canadian and Brazilian's revenue decentralization show a number of significant taxes that are devolved to the lower levels of government, Germany represents a strong collection at the center. The discrepancy is compensated for by the use of equalization grants in the German model. Second, fiscal decentralisation is found to exert a negative influence on the size of the public sector, although the impact is statistically not significant. The insignificance of the impact of fiscal decentralisation on the size of the public sector is explained in terms of the fact that there has, in fact, been very little decentralisation in South Africa. The size of the provincial and local government own source revenue relative to the consolidated general government expenditure is very little, pointing to the serious lack of revenue raising powers by the sub-national governments and thus the absence of any meaningful extent of decentralisation. Third fiscal-collusion exerts a significant negative influence on the size of the public sector. That is, the size of the public sector will reduce if provinces and local authorities are granted enough power to raise their own revenues. This result indicates that the massive transfers of revenue from the national government to the provinces and local authorities (revenue sharing) significantly reinforces the expanding influence of the decentralised expenditures financed through revenue transfers. Fourth, the overall size of the country's population is found to be inversely related to the size of the public sector supporting the argument that as population increases, economies in providing services are reaped. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 1999.

Disertacijoje tiriama fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui. Disertacijos tikslas – nustatyti Baltijos šalių mokesčių ir fiskalinės politikos įtaką ekonominiams procesams ir kiekybiškai įvertinti fiskalinės politikos priemonių poveikį makroekonominiams rodikliams. Šiame darbe buvo tirti svarbiausių fiskalinės politikos priemonių – pagrindinių mokesčių, valdžios sektoriaus investicijų ir visų išlaidų poveikis BVP, užimtiesiems, investicijoms ir palūkanų normoms. Pasitelkus vieną populiariausių fiskalinės politikos efektams tirti taikomų metodų – struktūrinius vektorinius autoregresinius modelius (SVAR) – buvo prieita prie tokių išvadų: skirtingų mokesčių šokai nevienodai veikia Baltijos šalių makroekonominius rodiklius. Darbo mokesčių didinimas neigiamai veikia BVP ir užimtumą visose ekonomikose; bet netiesioginių mokesčių didinimas teigiamai veikia BVP Latvijoje ir Estijoje, ir tik Lietuvoje poveikis yra neigiamas. Tik Lietuvoje buvo gauti stabilūs rezultatai apie neigiamą pelno mokesčių poveikį ekonomikai. Latvijoje ir Estijoje poveikio efektai varijuoja priklausomai nuo SVAR modelio kintamųjų sudėties. Rezultatai rodo, kad valdžios sektoriaus išlaidų didinimas lemia BVP, užimtumo ir tiesioginių investicijų mažėjimą Lietuvoje ir Estijoje. Latvijoje neigiama poveikio įtaka yra mažiau reikšminga. Kita vertus, valdžios sektoriaus investicijos turi teigiamą poveikį ekonomikos procesams visose trijose ekonomikose. Palūkanų normos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The object of this dissertation is the evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as stabilizing tools in the Baltic countries. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effects of tax and fiscal policies on such Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, foreign direct investment and interest rates. Structural Vector Auto Regressive model (SVAR) has been employed for the analysis. Results of the research suggest that tax shocks may have different effects in different countries: labour tax increases adversely affect output and employment in all economies. It is only Lithuania where indirect tax increases negatively affect output while in Latvia and Estonia indirect tax shocks effects are positive. Persistent results of the negative corporate income tax effects on macroeconomic variables were obtained only in Lithuania as well, results in Latvia and Estonia vary depending on the SVAR variable composition. The results show that the increase in government spending leads to GDP, employment and foreign direct investment decline in Estonia and Lithuania, while in Latvia the negative impact is less significant. On the other hand, government investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables in all three economies. Interest rates are relatively insensitive to fiscal shocks in all Baltic countries, and this may be explained by the high degree of economic openness and dependence on global market fluctuations.