O presente trabalho tem o objetivo de primariamente estudar o impacto da política fiscal brasileira sobre a atividade econômica via multiplicadores fiscais desagregados e secundariamente verificar se o comportamento da política fiscal é anticíclico, acíclico ou pró-cíclico. Para tanto, estima com técnicas bayesianas um modelo DSGE com um rico arcabouço de instrumentos fiscais de gastos e tributos desagregados em consumo público, investimento público, transferências e alíquotas tributárias sobre o consumo, a renda do trabalho e a renda do capital. Em especial, usa duas bases de dados distintas de alíquotas efetivas, que são os dados tributários que representam o mais fidedignamente possível as alíquotas do modelo e que ainda não foram utilizadas na literatura nacional. Os resultados mostram que, em todos os horizontes de tempo, o multiplicador do investimento público é o maior, enquanto o das transferências é o menor, e que a política fiscal brasileira é, em geral, pró-cíclica, contribuindo para amplificar o ciclo econômico. Assim, os multiplicadores indicam que, sob a perspectiva da preservação da atividade econômica, um ajuste fiscal deveria evitar cortes de investimento público, bem como dão respaldo à interpretação de que a diminuição da eficácia da política fiscal em 2010-11 se deveu à perda de espaço do investimento público na composição relativa dos estímulos fiscais. Um dos exercícios de sensibilidade revela que os multiplicadores fiscais são maiores quando a política fiscal é pró-cíclica, lançando luz sobre a questão não explorada na literatura do efeito do comportamento fiscal (anticíclico, acíclico ou pró-cíclico) sobre os multiplicadores fiscais e indicando que os estudos de economias caracterizadas por políticas fiscais pró-cíclicas, como a brasileira, que não levam em conta esse comportamento fiscal tendem a subestimar os multiplicadores. Ademais, o modelo evidencia quais são os instrumentos fiscais que mais ajudam a estabilizar a dívida pública e como o comportamento pró-cíclico magnifica os efeitos da política fiscal brasileira às expensas de uma dívida pública crescente, que posteriormente para ser estabilizada exige um arrocho fiscal duradouro que afeta negativamente o produto. Também revela que os choques fiscais são responsáveis por explicar uma parcela relevante da variação do crescimento do produto, razão superávit primário-produto e razão dívida pública-produto. / The present work aims to primarily study the Brazilian fiscal policy impact on the economic activity via disaggregated fiscal multipliers and secondarily verify if the fiscal policy behavior is anticyclical, acyclical or procyclical. To do so, it estimates with Bayesian techniques a DSGE model with a rich fiscal toolkit of expenditures and taxes disaggregated into public consumption, public investment, transfers and tax rates on consumption, labor income and capital income. Specially, it uses two different databases of effective tax rates, which are the tax data that represent the model\'s tax rates in the most reliable way and have not yet been used in the national literature. The results show that, in all the time horizons, the public investment multiplier is the greatest, while the transfers one is the smallest, and that the Brazilian fiscal policy is, in general, procyclical, contributing to amplify the business cycle. Thus, the multipliers indicate that, from the perspective of the economic activity preservation, a fiscal adjustment should avoid cuts in public investment, as well as support the interpretation that the fiscal policy efficacy decrease in 2010-11 was due to the public investment loss of space in the relative composition of the fiscal stimuli. One of the sensibility exercises reveal that the fiscal multipliers are higher when the fiscal policy is procyclical, shedding light on the question not explored in the literature of the effect of the fiscal behavior (anticyclical, acyclical or procyclical) on the fiscal multipliers and pointing out that studies about economies characterized by procyclical fiscal policies, like the Brazilian one, that do not take into account this fiscal behavior tend to underestimate the multipliers. Furthermore, the model highlights which are the fiscal instruments that help the most to stabilize the public debt and how the procyclical behavior magnifies the effects of the Brazilian fiscal policy at the expense of a rising public debt, which later to be stabilized requires an enduring fiscal tightening which affects negatively the output. It also reveals that the fiscal shocks are responsible for explaining a relevant fraction of the variability in the output growth, primary surplus-output ratio and public debt-output ratio.

Over the past few decades, many countries have experienced a marked decline in the volatility of output. However, there is still a significant difference between developed and developing countries in the level of output volatility. A proposed explanation for this phenomenon is the impact of economic policies on output volatility in developing countries. The empirical results reported in this study support this view. Trade openness and discretionary fiscal policy seem to increase volatility in developing countries, while the converse is true in developed countries. Furthermore, a flexible exchange rate regime is desirable to decrease volatility. However, many developing countries still use fixed rates for reasons such as a fear of floating, which contributes to volatility. The impact of monetary policy was found to be stabilising, but this could be the result of a favourable global economic environment. It should be noted, however, that uncontrollable factors such as financial systems and institutions play a vital role in all the above relationships. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / Fiscal deficits, which are the end result of fiscal indiscipline and lack of fiscal space, have been the focus of fiscal and macroeconomic adjustment in developed and developing countries. Developments in the euro zone between 2007 and 2011, have reminded policy makers about the macro-economic dangers posed by government debt. The nasty experiences of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain forced policy makers in Europe to introduce painful austerity measures. Up to this day, the eurozone debt crisis threatens the survival of the European Union. Although most African countries were not directly affected by the contagion of the euro zone debt crisis, they too had their own structural problems of unsustainable fiscal deficits and bad governance which caused macroeconomic imbalances. This study examines the macroeconomic effects of fiscal deficits and the contribution of bad governance to macroeconomic instability in Zimbabwe. In chapter one the problem and methodology of the study are introduced. The key questions are basically whether deficits are harmful or neutral? Linked to this is of course, the political economy of these deficits, especially the method of financing them and how this affects the macro-economic equilibrium. In order to investigate these issues, this study uses a qualitative and comparative methodology which juxtaposes Zimbabwe’s experiences with those of other developing countries, namely Ghana, Morocco, Zambia and Botswana. These countries are chosen as they collectively depict both cases of good fiscal management (Botswana and Morocco) on the one hand, and bad fiscal management (Ghana and Zambia), on the other. This methodology adequately captures political economy issues which are not capable of being estimated without running the risk of lack of validity and spurious inferences given the softness of data under hyperinflationary conditions that occurred in Zimbabwe prior to 2009. In chapter two the study examines various theoretical propositions on the relationship between the fiscal deficit and selected macroeconomic variables. The traditional theory postulates that the fiscal deficit has a negative impact on macroeconomic performance whereas the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem posits that the impact of the deficit is neutral. Keynesians argue that deficits arising from public expenditure on investment as opposed to consumption actually crowd-in rather than crowd out private sector investment. In theory, there is a close connection between a monetized deficit and inflation. A positive theoretical relationship is also found between the twin deficits (that is, the trade and fiscal deficits). However, the relationship between the budget deficit, interest rates and exchange rate is ambiguous. In chapter three we find that the majority of empirical studies support the view that budget deficits are generally inflationary when they are financed by printing money. A causal link is also found between the budget deficit and trade deficit. However, empirical evidence on the relationship between the deficit, exchange rate and interest rates is largely ambiguous. The comparative politico-economic and fiscal experiences of Ghana, Zambia, Morocco and Botswana in chapter four are used to provide the trajectory for the Zimbabwean case study in chapter 5. The review of the experiences of Ghana and Zambia showed that fiscal indiscipline resulted in high fiscal deficits which led to the deterioration of macroeconomic performance whereas in Morocco and Botswana, fiscal discipline resulted in low fiscal deficits and improved macro-economic performance. But central to the politico-economic performance of these countries, was the issue of bad governance and how this worsened the impact of fiscal deficits. In chapter five the experiences of Zimbabwe confirm the view that fiscal deficits are harmful to the economy. Many years of fiscal indiscipline and bad governance, led to macro-economic instability that resulted in record hyperinflation levels in 2008. Finally, the study concludes that, cumulative fiscal deficits in Zimbabwe since 1980, precipitated macroeconomic instability and fiscal unsustainability. Prolonged fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficits, which were largely financed by printing money, triggered hyperinflation and macroeconomic disequilibria. The lack of fiscal probity and the profligacy of the state, corruption, macroeconomic mismanagement and dirigistic policies, all rolled into one, caused the unprecedented economic meltdown and eventual economic collapse in Zimbabwe. The study finds that fiscal indiscipline in Zimbabwe, other than causing macroeconomic instability, also contributed to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, never witnessed in a country not waging a war. Going forward, the study recommends a battery of policy measures in the area of institutional, fiscal and macro-economic adjustment in order to control and manage the deficit in Zimbabwe.

This thesis aims to contribute towards a better understanding of the optimal coordination of monetary and fiscal policy in complex economic environments. We analyze the characteristics of optimal dynamics in an economy in which neither prices nor wages adjust instantaneously and lump-sum taxes are unavailable as a source of government finance. We then propose that monetary and fiscal policy should be coordinated to satisfy a pair of simple `specific targeting rules', a rule for inflation and a rule for the growth of real wages. We show that such simple rule-based conduct of policy can do remarkably well in replicating the dynamics of the economy under optimal policy following a given shock. We study optimal policy coordination in the context of an economy where a constant proportion of agents lacks access to the asset market. We find that the optimal economy moves along an analogue of a conventional inflation-output variance frontier in response to a government spending shock, as the population share of non-Ricardian agents rises. The optimal output response rises, while inflation volatility subsides. There is little evidence that increased government spending would crowd in private consumption in the optimal economy. We investigate the optimal properties and wider implications of a macroeconomic policy framework aimed at meeting an unconditional debt target. We show that the best stationary policy in terms of an unconditional welfare measure is characterized by highly persistent debt dynamics, less history-dependence in the conduct of policy, less reliance on debt finance and more short-term volatility following a government spending shock compared with the non-stationary `timelessly optimal' plan.

香港自1983年10月實施聯繫匯率制度開始，財政政策便成為香港政府唯一穩定經濟的措施。為了善用有限的財政儲備，本文嘗試建立一個計量模型，以作評估財政政策對香港經濟的影響。Jha et al. (2010)曾指出香港政府增加財政支出會對經濟有顯著的負面影響，而利用Ravn et al. (2007)的結構向量自回歸（SVAR）模型亦得出相類似的結果。以上的研究結果與一般學者對財政政策的觀點有所出入，而其中一個可能性是它們所使用的計量模型中遺漏了控制變數。當加入摩根士丹利亞太區指數－MSCI AC (All countries) Pacific Index作為對外貿易環境的控制變數後，擴張性財政政策的預測結果則與之前的研究相同。在更換經修改後模型中的投資變數後，模型則預測增加財政支出並不會對投資產生擠擁效應。而經分解後的財政支出分析更顯示政策支出類型是影響財政政策效應乘數的關鍵因素。模型亦估算政府增加經常性開支會對經濟有着顯著的正面作用。若香港政府需於在短期內推行擴張性財政政策，本文建議政府應集中資源於基礎建設上，以達至財政政策效用最大化的經濟效果。 / Given the adoption of the linked exchange rate since October 1983, fiscal policy becomes the only measurement for stabilizing the Hong Kong economy. This paper attempts to establish a framework for evaluating the fiscal effect to prevent the abuse of fiscal measures. The empirical study of Jha et al. (2010) revealed the significant negative impact of fiscal effect in Hong Kong, which violates the classical view of fiscal policy. A similar result has been found by adopting another structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). An omission of control variables in the quantitative model is possible. The MSCI AC (All countries) Pacific Index has been introduced as an international block in the SVAR model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). The fiscal effect becomes positive and standardizes with the previous fiscal studies. The replacement of investment variable in the modified model suggests that positive fiscal innovation does not encounter with the crowding out effect on investment. The estimations for the decomposition policy expenditures indicate that compositional effect exists, and it undermines the fiscal multiplier. The estimations also reveal that the innovation in recurrent expenditure contributes mainly to the fiscal effect. With the persistence and significant impact on output, concentrating on infrastructure expenditure is the recommendation on Hong Kong fiscal policy to maximize the expansionary effect in the short run. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Chi Shing. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-33). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Literature Review on Hong Kong Fiscal Policy --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Literature Review on the SVAR Model of Fiscal Policy --- p.5 / Chapter 3 --- Identification of the Structural VAR Model / Chapter 3.1 --- Original Model / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Identification --- p.8 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Data --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1.3 --- Estimation --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- Modified Model / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Introduction of International Block --- p.11 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Estimation --- p.13 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Robustness Testing --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- Crowding Out Effect --- p.17 / Chapter 4 --- Fiscal Effects by Policy Category / Chapter 4.1 --- Decomposition of Government Expenditure --- p.19 / Chapter 4.2 --- Estimation of Fiscal Impulse by Policy Category / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Total Expenditure by Policy --- p.21 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.22 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Non-Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.25 / Chapter 5 --- Comparison of the Fiscal Effects between “Asian Dragons“ --- p.26 / Chapter 6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.29 / References --- p.32 / Appendixes / Chapter Appendix A: --- Classification of Expenditure by Policy Area Group --- p.34 / Chapter Appendix B: --- Estimations and Figures --- p.35

Over the past few decades, many countries have experienced a marked decline in the volatility of output. However, there is still a significant difference between developed and developing countries in the level of output volatility. A proposed explanation for this phenomenon is the impact of economic policies on output volatility in developing countries. The empirical results reported in this study support this view. Trade openness and discretionary fiscal policy seem to increase volatility in developing countries, while the converse is true in developed countries. Furthermore, a flexible exchange rate regime is desirable to decrease volatility. However, many developing countries still use fixed rates for reasons such as a fear of floating, which contributes to volatility. The impact of monetary policy was found to be stabilising, but this could be the result of a favourable global economic environment. It should be noted, however, that uncontrollable factors such as financial systems and institutions play a vital role in all the above relationships. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Historically on a global scale and in South Africa it was common practice for mining operators to abandon a mine once the mineral extraction on site was completed. The operators had no obligation to rehabilitate the land and in most cases the disturbed areas were abandoned with no regard for the residual impacts that the site may present or the continued environmental deterioration. This represents the mining legacy of many countries, particularly in South Africa. The continual underestimations in financial provisioning for premature mine closure, leads to the continual abandonment of mining sites. Abandoned mines and the resultant legacy of environmental pollution are of major concern as literature indicates that there are around 6000 abandoned sites in South Africa. The problem is that no-one is currently taking responsibility for these sites as the Minister for Mineral Resources has stated that the South African government would not take the liability onto them. With this being said the burden still falls on the state as the mining companies responsible for the pollution may no longer exist or have the finances to carry out post-closure rehabilitation to ensure that the site no longer poses a threat to the environment. To address a similar problem, Western Australia has implemented the Mining Rehabilitation Fund Act 33 (2012) which delegates due responsibility for abandoned sites. The act provides for a government administered pooled fund into which all current mining operators pay an annual levy. The funds are used to rehabilitate abandoned mining areas, alleviating the burden of government to solely fund their rehabilitation. The aim of this research is, therefore, to investigate the viability of Western Australia‟s Mining Rehabilitation Fund as a fiscal policy solution for the rehabilitation of South African abandoned mines. To achieve this aim, three lines of inquiry are pursued. Firstly, to “identify the challenges related to abandonment of mine sites in South Africa,” secondly “to compare the legal provisions for abandoned mine sites management in South Africa with that of Western Australia, specifically the rehabilitation fund” and lastly “to investigate how such a policy will be received by stakeholders in the South African mining industry.” The research was approached from a pragmatic philosophical stance. A qualitative dominant mixed methods research approach with an embedded design is used for data analysis. The strategies of inquiry consist of a literature review, comparative analysis and open-ended interview questions which provide qualitative data and structured survey questions which produces quantitative data. Surveys were carried out with selected stakeholders to investigate how such a policy will be received in the South African mining industry. The methods employed for the analyses of data consist of a scoping and literature review, coding and categorising, a comparative analysis, the identification of themes and analytical evaluation of survey data. An article format was chosen for the presentation of results and is presented in chapter 4. The challenges related to the abandonment of mine sites in South Africa are related to skills shortages, poor enforcement of existing legislation and an out of date Guideline document for the evaluation of the quantum of closure related financial provision (DME, 2005). The comparison of the legal provisions for abandoned mine sites management in South Africa with that of Western Australia, highlighted that both frameworks have the intention to protect the environment and promote sustainable mining but as can be seen in South Africa, even if the intentions of the legislation is good, it has limited value without proper implementation and enforcement. The results indicate a general feeling of stakeholders that such a policy is necessary and will be beneficial, but the respondents have doubts in the ability of the South African government to enforce the law. They also felt that it was unfair to hold the current mining operators responsible for the heedless actions of the previous miners and ruling party. / MSc (Geography and Environmental Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Historically on a global scale and in South Africa it was common practice for mining operators to abandon a mine once the mineral extraction on site was completed. The operators had no obligation to rehabilitate the land and in most cases the disturbed areas were abandoned with no regard for the residual impacts that the site may present or the continued environmental deterioration. This represents the mining legacy of many countries, particularly in South Africa. The continual underestimations in financial provisioning for premature mine closure, leads to the continual abandonment of mining sites. Abandoned mines and the resultant legacy of environmental pollution are of major concern as literature indicates that there are around 6000 abandoned sites in South Africa. The problem is that no-one is currently taking responsibility for these sites as the Minister for Mineral Resources has stated that the South African government would not take the liability onto them. With this being said the burden still falls on the state as the mining companies responsible for the pollution may no longer exist or have the finances to carry out post-closure rehabilitation to ensure that the site no longer poses a threat to the environment. To address a similar problem, Western Australia has implemented the Mining Rehabilitation Fund Act 33 (2012) which delegates due responsibility for abandoned sites. The act provides for a government administered pooled fund into which all current mining operators pay an annual levy. The funds are used to rehabilitate abandoned mining areas, alleviating the burden of government to solely fund their rehabilitation. The aim of this research is, therefore, to investigate the viability of Western Australia‟s Mining Rehabilitation Fund as a fiscal policy solution for the rehabilitation of South African abandoned mines. To achieve this aim, three lines of inquiry are pursued. Firstly, to “identify the challenges related to abandonment of mine sites in South Africa,” secondly “to compare the legal provisions for abandoned mine sites management in South Africa with that of Western Australia, specifically the rehabilitation fund” and lastly “to investigate how such a policy will be received by stakeholders in the South African mining industry.” The research was approached from a pragmatic philosophical stance. A qualitative dominant mixed methods research approach with an embedded design is used for data analysis. The strategies of inquiry consist of a literature review, comparative analysis and open-ended interview questions which provide qualitative data and structured survey questions which produces quantitative data. Surveys were carried out with selected stakeholders to investigate how such a policy will be received in the South African mining industry. The methods employed for the analyses of data consist of a scoping and literature review, coding and categorising, a comparative analysis, the identification of themes and analytical evaluation of survey data. An article format was chosen for the presentation of results and is presented in chapter 4. The challenges related to the abandonment of mine sites in South Africa are related to skills shortages, poor enforcement of existing legislation and an out of date Guideline document for the evaluation of the quantum of closure related financial provision (DME, 2005). The comparison of the legal provisions for abandoned mine sites management in South Africa with that of Western Australia, highlighted that both frameworks have the intention to protect the environment and promote sustainable mining but as can be seen in South Africa, even if the intentions of the legislation is good, it has limited value without proper implementation and enforcement. The results indicate a general feeling of stakeholders that such a policy is necessary and will be beneficial, but the respondents have doubts in the ability of the South African government to enforce the law. They also felt that it was unfair to hold the current mining operators responsible for the heedless actions of the previous miners and ruling party. / MSc (Geography and Environmental Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

This thesis examines fiscal policy coordination in the EU during the Great Recession (2008-2010). For the first time since the Maastricht Treaty heralded the coordination of macroeconomic policies among EU Member States, public finances were collectively focused on stimulus policies. In sharp contrast to the preceding decade of consolidation and constraint, fiscal policy coordination during the Great Recession presents a novelty: a study in fiscal expansion. Drawing on Mancur Olson’s Logic of Collective Action, this thesis uses a mixed-methods approach that combines the insights from over 40 in-depth interviews and econometric analyses. The central argument of this thesis is that the fiscal crisis responses of EU Member States were not coordinated. Yet despite this lack of coordination, free-riding was kept at bay. First, the overarching consensus on the need for counter-cyclical fiscal policies prevented growth free-riding (i.e. a situation of limited domestic stimulus and free-riding on other countries’ expansive fiscal policies). Second, discipline imposed by financial market participants contributed to policy-makers’ awareness of their limited room for fiscal manoeuvre, which meant that stability free-riding (i.e. stimulus policies that exceeded a country’s fiscal space) did not occur. The first finding suggests the importance of shared policy ideas in achieving collective action; the second points to the role of financial markets in constraining public finances. Ultimately both, shared policy ideas and market discipline, can function as a substitute for strong institutional commitment to shape group oriented behaviour.

This thesis consists of three essays on the discretionary interactions of fiscal and monetary policy authorities when they stabilise a single economy against shocks in the dynamic setting. In the first essay, I investigate the stabilization bias that arises in a model of noncooperative monetary and fiscal policy stabilisation of the economy, when the monetary authority implements price level targeting but fiscal authority remains benevolent. I demonstrate that the gain in welfare depends on the level of steady state debt. If the steady state level of the government debt is relatively low, then the monetary price level targeting unambiguously leads to social welfare gains, even if the fiscal authority acts strategically and faces different objectives and has incentives to pursue its own benefit and therefore may offset some or all of monetary policy actions. Moreover, if the fiscal policymaker is able to conduct itself as an intra-period leader then the social welfare gain of the monetary price level targeting regime can be further improved. However, if the economy has a relatively high steady state debt level, the gain of the price level targeting is outweighed by the loss arising from the conflicts between the policy makers, and such policy leads to a lower social welfare than under the cooperative discretionary inflation targeting. In the second essay I study the macroeconomic effect of the interaction between discretionary monetary policy which re-optimises every period and discretionary fiscal policy which reoptimises less frequently. I demonstrate the existence of two discretionary equilibria if the frequency of fiscal policy re-optimizes annually while monetary policy adjusts quarterly. Following a disturbance to the debt level, the economy can be stabilised either in a ‘fast but volatile‘ or ‘slow but smooth’ way, where both dynamic paths satisfy the conditions of optimality and time-consistency. I study several delegation regimes and demonstrate that the policy of partial targeting the debt level results in far worse welfare outcomes relative to a strict inflation targeting policy. In the third essay, I extend the framework developed in the second essay to the case with Blanchard-Yaari type of consumers. This brings in two effects. First, an increase in debt results in higher consumption via the wealth effect, the marginal cost is higher so the need for higher interest rate and higher taxation will increase, therefore the dynamic complementarity between actions of the two policymakers become stronger. Second, higher inflation affects consumption via the average propensity to consume and this effect is likely to weaken the dynamic complementarity. I show that when the households are assigned a mortality rate, overall the first effect dominates the second. The transition paths of the economic variables back to the steady state will be more volatile and the multiple equilibriums are more likely to arise.