Submitted by Renato José Rodrigues Fernandes (renatojrf87@gmail.com) on 2013-05-01T19:50:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Mestrado - Renato José Rodrigues Fernandes.pdf: 706316 bytes, checksum: c3ec791ac990f327104c8e50900f5641 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-05-02T13:17:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Mestrado - Renato José Rodrigues Fernandes.pdf: 706316 bytes, checksum: c3ec791ac990f327104c8e50900f5641 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-05-02T13:36:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Mestrado - Renato José Rodrigues Fernandes.pdf: 706316 bytes, checksum: c3ec791ac990f327104c8e50900f5641 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-04-09 / This work aims to investigate the quantitative implications of a fiscal policy rigidity model developed by Gonçalves e Guimaraes (2012) and to answer if it is able to generate more defaults in equilibrium without using a strong ad hoc assumption about the costs in terms of product of a default on sovereign debt in order to be able to generate the desired results according to what is observed in economic data, i.e., that defaults tend to occur in bad times. The main hypothesis of this model is that the government cannot commit to a fiscal adjustment to repay the debt that is coming due because it chooses the tax rate in the previous period. Thus, when facing a low product in a given period, the sovereign cannot adjust its revenue to meet his obligations and has to decide either to increase the level of debt or to repudiate its debt and not repay. In the results, we have that the fiscal rigidity increases the occurrence of defaults in at least one order of magnitude in comparison to other quantitative models of sovereign debt and helps to explain the occurrence of defaults in periods of low product in the Economy. / Este trabalho tem como objetivo investigar as implicações quantitativas do modelo de rigidez de política fiscal desenvolvido por Gonçalves e Guimaraes (2012) e responder se ele é capaz de gerar mais defaults em equilíbrio sem se utilizar de uma forte hipótese ad hoc acerca dos custos em termos do produto de um calote na dívida soberana, a fim de conseguir gerar os resultados desejados de acordo com o que se observa nos dados econômicos, isto é, que os calotes tendem a ocorrer em tempos ruins. A principal hipótese deste modelo é que o Governo não pode se comprometer com um ajuste fiscal para repagar a dívida que está vencendo porque ele escolhe a alíquota de imposto no período anterior. Logo, ao se deparar com um produto baixo em determinado período, o soberano não pode ajustar a arrecadação a fim de fazer frente às suas obrigações e se vê diante da decisão de aumentar o nível do endividamento ou de repudiar sua dívida e não pagá-la. Nos resultados, tem-se que a rigidez fiscal aumenta a ocorrência de defaults em pelo menos uma ordem de magnitude comparado a outros modelos quantitativos de dívida soberana e ajuda a explicar a ocorrência de calotes em períodos de baixo produto na Economia.

Submitted by Alexis Maka (alexis.maka@ipea.gov.br) on 2014-01-07T17:09:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation - Alexis Maka.pdf: 4105460 bytes, checksum: 61a014ecaca774cf3ae64ddbdd8ea527 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2014-01-28T18:27:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation - Alexis Maka.pdf: 4105460 bytes, checksum: 61a014ecaca774cf3ae64ddbdd8ea527 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2014-02-03T15:53:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation - Alexis Maka.pdf: 4105460 bytes, checksum: 61a014ecaca774cf3ae64ddbdd8ea527 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-02-03T15:53:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation - Alexis Maka.pdf: 4105460 bytes, checksum: 61a014ecaca774cf3ae64ddbdd8ea527 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-27 / Esta tese é composta por três ensaios sobre testes empíricos de curvas de Phillips, curvas IS e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária. O primeiro ensaio ('Curvas de Phillips: um Teste Abrangente') testa curvas de Phillips usando uma especificação autoregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ADL) que abrange a curva de Phillips Aceleracionista (APC), a curva de Phillips Novo Keynesiana (NKPC), a curva de Phillips Híbrida (HPC) e a curva de Phillips de Informação Rígida (SIPC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2), usando o hiato do produto e alternativamente o custo marginal real como medida de pressão inflacionária. A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKPC, da HPC e da SIPC, mas não rejeita aquelas da APC. O segundo ensaio ('Curvas IS: um Teste Abrangente') testa curvas IS usando uma especificação ADL que abrange a curva IS Keynesiana tradicional (KISC), a curva IS Novo Keynesiana (NKISC) e a curva IS Híbrida (HISC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2). A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKISC e da HISC, mas não rejeita aquelas da KISC. O terceiro ensaio ('Os Efeitos da Política Fiscal e suas Interações com a Política Monetária') analisa os efeitos de choques na política fiscal sobre a dinâmica da economia e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária usando modelos SVARs. Testamos a Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços para o Brasil analisando a resposta do passivo do setor público a choques no superávit primário. Para a identificação híbrida, encontramos que não é possível distinguir empiricamente entre os regimes Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) e não-Ricardiano (Dominância Fiscal). Entretanto, utilizando a identificação de restrições de sinais, existe evidência que o governo seguiu um regime Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) de janeiro de 2000 a junho de 2008. / This dissertation consists of three essays on empirical testing of Phillips curves, IS curves, and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies. The first essay ('Phillips Curves: An Encompassing Test') tests Phillips curves using an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) specification that encompasses the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), the Hybrid Phillips curve (HPC), and the Sticky-Information Phillips curve (SIPC). We use data from the United States (1985Q1--2007Q4) and from Brazil (1996Q1--2012Q2), using the output gap and alternatively the real marginal cost as measure of inflationary pressure. The empirical evidence rejects the restrictions implied by the NKPC, the HPC, and SIPC, but does not reject those implied by the APC. The second essay ('IS Curves: An Encompassing Test') tests IS curves using an ADL specification that encompasses the traditional Keynesian IS curve (KISC), the New Keynesian IS curve (NKISC), and the Hybrid IS curve (HISC). We use data from the United States (1985Q1--2007Q4) and from Brazil (1996Q1--2012Q2). The evidence rejects the restrictions implied by the NKISC and the HISC, but does not reject those of the KISC. The third essay ('The Effects of Fiscal Policy and its Interactions with Monetary Policy in Brazil') analyzes the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the dynamics of the economy and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). We test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level for Brazil, analyzing the response of public sector liabilities to primary surplus shocks. For the hybrid identification we find that it is not possible to distinguish empirically between Ricardian (Monetary Dominance) and non-Ricardian (Fiscal Dominance) regimes. However, using sign restrictions there is some evidence that the government followed a Ricardian (Monetary Dominance) regime from January 2000 to June 2008.

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a large increase in the government debt of all advanced economies. In the United States, the debt burden reached levels not seen since the Second World War. In Europe, high fiscal stress evolved into a sovereign debt crisis. My thesis focuses on debt dynamics in advanced economies and the design of policies that can stabilize their fiscal burden. In the first chapter, I provide new evidence and theory on US debt dynamics and their relation with long-term growth forecasts. In the second chapter, I document a novel dataset on the maturity structure of sovereign debt of Euro Area (EA) countries and study the effect of the maturity composition on debt dynamics. Finally, in the third chapter, I analyze empirically the role of debt management in stabilizing the fiscal burden of countries in the EA.<p><p>Chapter 1: Sovereign Debt in the US and Growth Expectations<p><p>This chapter studies the effect of changes in expectations of long-term GDP growth on US government debt and deficits. Long-term growth expectations are an essential determinant of expected future revenue growth and fiscal solvency. I present evidence that US government debt and deficits are positively correlated with long-term GDP (and revenue) growth forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office between 1984 and 2012. This is robust to controlling for current growth and to using à-la-Kalman estimated forecasts for a longer time span. This stylized fact is novel in the macroeconomics literature and I develop a new model of government behavior that explains it.<p>My model features endogenous (forward-looking) purchasing behavior for the government. This distinguishes my model from standard macro theories that assume exogenous government purchases, or ad-hoc backward looking policy rules for government purchases. It builds on the recent ‘long-run risks’ literature by assuming shocks to the trend growth rate of total factor productivity. The model matches the observed positive correlation between fiscal deficits and the trend growth rate, based on the government’s desire to smooth public consumption over periods of higher (or lower) long-run productivity growth. <p><p>Chapter 2: Government Debt Maturity and Debt Dynamics in EA Countries<p><p>This chapter presents a new comprehensive database on sovereign debt stocks and yields, at all maturities, for six EA countries: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain between 1991 and 2013. I constructed this database by combining information from different sources (treasuries, national central banks and statistical offices), on a security-by-security basis. A recent literature has shown the importance of debt maturity management in the US - e.g. Hall and Sargent (2011) - however, due to lack of data, this key issue remained unstudied for the EA. Thus, I use my database to study the effect of debt maturity management on the evolution of government debt in EA countries. <p>My main finding is that debt maturity also had an important effect in debt dynamics of the EA. The debt maturity structure affects debt dynamics because longer maturity shields the government budget from changes in interest rates. In general, interest rates in the EA have fallen since 1991 while treasuries in the region extended debt maturity. Thus, an increasing number of long-term bondholders experienced large capital gains. Counterfactual simulations show the impact of a different maturity structure on the evolution of debt and suggest that extending debt maturity in 2014 and 2015 would result in lower debt ratios by 2022. I also estimate the debt-to-GDP erosion induced by higher current and future inflation and find that inflation would lower the fiscal burden in EA countries much more than in the US.<p><p>Chapter 3: Quantifying the Role of Debt Management for Fiscal Self-Insurance in the EA<p><p>The last chapter provides evidence of debt management being an effective tool for protecting the government budget from fiscal spending shocks in the EA. In particular, I document that sovereign bonds of EA countries had a significantly lower real return in response to government spending shocks between 1991 and 2013. Importantly, longer bond maturity generally implied a larger drop in returns. This is in line with theories claiming that long-term debt provides fiscal self-insurance. However, my finding suggests that medium-term debt is more effective in hedging against spending shocks. <p>I identify government spending shocks in a Structural VAR model estimated with both aggregated quarterly fiscal data for the EA and stacked data from individual countries. I also use a simple FAVAR model to distinguish between common and idiosyncratic (country-specific) shocks and document that the former risk was hedged more effectively. The introduction of the Euro reduced the absorption of idiosyncratic shocks (relative to common shocks) by bond returns. However, the European debt crisis brought the degree of fiscal self-insurance against country-specific shocks back to pre-Euro levels. Finally, debt maturity seems to play a minor role in the absorption of country-specific shocks by the return on sovereign bonds. <p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Une des questions fondamentales en économie est celle du rôle que devraient jouer les autorités publiques pour mitiger les fluctuations de l’activité économique. Cette thèse, organisée en trois chapitres, analyse comment les politiques économiques peuvent être caractérisées à travers différentes structures économiques et au cours du cycle économique. En particulier, la première partie de la thèse se concentre sur la politique budgétaire et analyse comment les différentes caractéristiques structurelles des pays affectent l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire. La deuxième partie analyse la conduite de la politique monétaire dans des pays en régime de ciblage d’inflation et la manière dont celle-ci a été affectée par l’expansionnisme monétaire sans précédent des économies avancées depuis la crise financière et économique globale. Le chapitre met en évidence le rôle des facteurs domestiques et externes qui affectent les décisions de politique monétaire dans les pays émergents. Etant donné que les politiques budgétaire et monétaire sont les outils les plus importants disponibles pour les autorités publiques pour la gestion de la politique macroéconomique, le troisième chapitre de la thèse analyse les bases théoriques qui soutiennent l’utilisation de ces politiques de manière contra-cyclique, et étudie comment, dans la pratique, ces politiques ont répondu aux fluctuations économiques en Amérique Latine au cours des deux dernières décennies. En particulier le chapitre analyse dans quelle mesure les politiques budgétaire et monétaire renforcent ou contrebalancent les fluctuations économiques, c’est-à-dire dans quelle mesure elles sont pro-cycliques ou contra-cycliques, et discute le rôle des institutions économiques. / One of the most fundamental questions in economics is what should be the role of economic authorities in addressing fluctuations in economic activity. This dissertation, organized in three chapters, analyses how economic policies can be characterized across economic structures and along the business cycle. In particular, the first part of the dissertation focuses on fiscal policy and addresses the question of how different structural characteristics across countries affect the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The second part analyses the conduct of monetary policy in inflation targeting countries and how it has been affected by the unprecedented expansionary monetary policies implemented by advanced economies since the recent global financial and economic crisis. The chapter highlights the role of domestic and external factors affecting the determination of monetary policy. Given that fiscal and monetary policies are the two most important tools available for policymakers in terms of macroeconomic management, the third chapter of the dissertation analyses the theoretical grounds for these policies to be used in a countercyclical manner, and studies how in practice these policies have responded to economic fluctuations in Latin America over the last two decades. In particular the chapter analyses the degree to which fiscal and monetary policies reinforce or counterbalance fluctuations in economic activity, i.e. whether these policies have been procyclical or countercyclical, and discusses the role of economic institutions.

Masters in Public Administration - MPA / Can a country function without a legislative framework able to inform decisionmaking processes taken at different spheres of government? To what extent would actions conducted at various spheres of government be efficiently coordinated and informed by appropriate channels of constitutional provisions and legislative amendments to consolidate financial and intergovernmental fiscal relations policy-making tools for the realization of an efficient local developmental state? Answers to the above mentioned two questions refer to normative fiscal policy principles and prescriptive instruments of intergovernmental fiscal transfer design, whose orientation suggests better ways of framing sound and coherent programs and interventions that strengthen cooperative synergy and transfer knowledge of experience gained in empirical investigations and various South African environments of higher academic learning. Growing evidence acknowledges South Africa as one of the young democratic countries that has been going through a period of transition over the past three years as it changes its system of public finance from a structure suited to the old apartheid system to one consistent with the new South African Constitutional dispensation. While the former system was highly centralized, the newconstitution makes a clear commitment to municipal governments as important providers of government services, with greater tax and spending powers. Even as local autonomy has been substantially increased, there remains uncertainty as to the most appropriate design of a system of intergovernmental fiscal grants to metropolitan areas and townships. This study analyses this situation and further develops a generic design for intergovernmental transfers and its suitability to the realities of South African municipalities on the ground within the framework of Cooperative Government. This study concludes that fiscal management, as a cross-cutting discipline, is a powerful instrument for government’s revenue sources at the national, provincial and local government levels. Financial management should be regarded as a co-coordinating mechanism managing government’s expenditure and catalyzing sound financial relationship for an efficient management in the country, thus allowing government to budget effectively for the delivery of goods and services in order to attain the constitutional mandate of a developmental state. / South Africa

In the field of international trade there is an intriguing tension between the ideological allure of free trade and the political reality of protectionism. Typically, the former is favored by scholars while the latter has been more historically prevalent. Protectionism in the form of tariffs and other obstacles trade was generally a preferred trade policy around the globe in the 18th and early 19th centuries. Sweden was no exception and has been seen as highly protectionist and mercantilist during this period. This thesis has sought to shed new light on Swedish trade policy between 1780 and 1830. It has done so by quantifying and homogenizing tariffs and import bans in order to be able to analyze the structure of tariffs. The thesis stands on a theoretical ground which takes into account the different plausible reasons for setting tariffs. It has placed some emphasis on the possible tension between the desire to shelter one’s own industry from foreign competition and the need to use tariffs for fiscal purposes, as an important source of government revenue. It is therefore argued that tariffs need to be separated theoretically and empirically. A simple model is presented which aims to discern three types of tariffs. The model takes into account the tariff rate itself, and also the structure of trade and the presence of domestic substitution. The thesis has found that Swedish tariffs were generally high over the period and that protectionism was prevalent in a large number of economic sectors. There is tentative evidence that protectionist tariffs also distorted trade in certain types of goods, even if they didn’t have an impact on total import levels. Tariffs were also set so as to separate between raw materials and more processed goods, what is called mercantilist differentiation. Substantial empirical support is given to the claim that certain tariffs on inelastic consumption goods were of great fiscal importance, and increasingly so as the period progressed. The fiscal pressure maintained or even increased the import tariffs, which made it possible to decrease tariffs on exports.

This thesis concerns fiscal rules which represent a possible solution of excessive deficits of public budgets. The chosen topic is very relevant as most developed countries are now facing the problem of fiscal imbalance. The aim of the thesis is to analyze existing rules in the Czech Republic and to formulate recommendations for its public budgets with regard to the specifics of the economic and political environment. The main hypothesis is that fiscal rules in the Czech Republic are not well designed and do not contribute to the stabilization of public finances. This hypothesis was partially proved true. Proposal to strengthen the fiscal framework by implementation of the reform of medium-term expenditure frameworks and by adopting debt rule at the constitutional level results from the realized findings. Further recommendation is to establish independent fiscal institution that would oversee the fiscal policy in the Czech Republic.

The aim of the thesis is to examine possible connections between economic results of public budgets, especially the most important part-state budget, and the course of the political cycle in Czech republic between years 1993 and 2015. The theoretical part is based on the Public choice theory, Theory of public finance and Political-business cycle theory. The practital part focuses on analysis of political situation in each political cycle and then on association with public and state budgets revenues and expenditures, their growth rate and the business cycle. Results of the analysis show that deficits of state budget are predominantly structural based. Moreover, a tendency to influence election results through released fiscal policy is also noticeable in some political cycles, which is consistent with the political-business cycle theory.

The thesis is concerned with the analysis of the development of public expenditures in Czech Republic between the years 2000 and 2015 with regard to the progress of political cycles. The analysis of overall development of each budget chapter (especially the year on year comparison) is based on real outcomes of state finances collected from final state accounts. The purpose of the thesis is to discover potential influence of political cycles on the level and structure of public expenses. The author created his own theoretical assumptions and set an original methodological approach. Final findings mostly comply with the created hypothesis.

La fragmentation de la politique fiscale de l'Etat s'opère par la démocratisation de la vie publique et de la crise économique marquée par une érosion du monopole étatique et une atomisation du processus décisionnel due à l'internationalité des questions fiscales. Une première partie démontre l'apparente cohésion de la politique fiscale malgré la dispersion institutionnelle issue du jeu entre l'exécutif et le législatif supplantés par l'activisme des forces sociales diffuses. Le « désordre normatif » est issu de l'éclatement des instruments de l'ordre juridique qu'une codification lacunaire n'a pas su restaurer. Le contexte économique inspire aussi les choix fiscaux de sortie de crise et la réflexion s'ouvre pour une politique fiscale de développement. La deuxième partie développe la compétence limitée de l'Etat en raison de la décision fiscale influencée par l'intégration en zone CEMAC et l'entrée en commerce juridique avec d'autres nations et organisations internationales. A la mondialisation, la politique fiscale se définit par la posture offensive ou défensive de l'Etat même si ce dernier continue de tenir le gouvernail de la décision fiscale. C'est un Etat imaginatif recherchant des solutions adéquates, conciliant exigences de la ponction fiscale avec celles de l'atteinte des objectifs macroéconomiques. Le décryptage de la politique fiscale devient une problématique centrée sur le rôle de l'Etat dans l'environnement post-moderne et capable d'assurer l'unité conceptuelle du processus décisionnel fiscal malgré les turbulences interne et internationale. C'est un Etat intelligent fédérant, les acteurs impliqués dans la construction d'un nouvel ordre fiscal. / Against the backdrop of the conceptual uniqueness of the tax policy implemented by the government, lies a genuine fragmentation of fiscal decision-making sources. The State organ ultimately responsible for tax policy choices actually bears the laborious compromise built on trading of choices between public and private stakeholders at national and international levels. The State of Cameroon which, since independence in 1960, has been the keystone of the whole political edifice, and the initiator of tax-related decisions, is witnessing an adjustment in its unique structure national level due to the combined effect of political democratization and economic crisis. Its erstwhile monopoly in the production of fiscal choices is being fragmented due to the increasingly assertive international scope of tax-related issues. In short, the State's tax jurisdiction is shifting from decision-making monopoly to shared decision-making prerogatives integrating national constraints and requirements at international level. Understanding fiscal policy becomes a central issue in the State's new role of implementing the social contract. The new challenge for the State in the post-modern environment is to enhance its ability to continue to ensure the conceptual uniqueness of the fiscal decision-making process despite the turbulence of the internal order and international society. It is the advent of a smart State bringing together stakeholders involved in the construction of a fiscal order.