O aumento da ocorrência de desastres hidrológicos relacionados a inundações bruscas tem recebido maior atenção dos diversos órgãos em suas diferentes escalas, com o objetivo de reduzir ao máximo suas causas. Justamente por isso, as medidas não estruturais são medidas de extrema importância na prevenção de tais desastres. Uma dessas medidas deve ser o mapeamento de áreas de perigo de inundações. Portanto, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi propor e avaliar o perigo de inundações bruscas por meio de modelagem hidrogeomorfológica na bacia do arroio Forromeco-RS. Para isso, foi utilizado o modelo CAESAR-LISFLOOD, para representar os processos hidrológicos em escala de bacia e canal. Em escala de bacia foram gerados hidrogramas a partir da criação de chuvas de projeto para diferentes tempos de retorno (TR), considerando como base o maior evento registrado nessa bacia associado a um TR de 22 anos. Esses hidrogramas foram utilizados nas simulações em escala de canal para gerar os diferentes mapas de inundação em termos de profundidade e velocidade do fluxo da água. Para analisar as áreas de perigo de inundação, foram determinados os índices de perigo (IP) associados aos diferentes TR, a partir da profundidade e a velocidade d’água. Através das análises do resultado de IP foi criado o mapeamento final de perigo associado a três tempos de retorno (5, 22, e 100 anos). Além disso, estabeleceu-se três zonas para identificar os níveis de perigo, considerando o cenário mais crítico dos três mapas. Os resultados mostraram que a maior área inundada se encontra em alto perigo, ocupando 77% da área total, o que significa que as pessoas que moram nessa região estão em perigo tanto em casa, como fora delas. Ao mesmo tempo as construções estão em alta possiblidade de serem danificadas. / The increase in the occurrence of hydrological disasters related to flash floods has begun to be more important for several organs at different scales in order to reduce their magnitude and frequency as much as possible. Precisely because of it, non-structural measures are extremely important measures for preventing such disasters. One of these important measures might be the mapping of flood hazard areas. Therefore, the objective of the present work was to propose and evaluate the flash flood hazard by means of hydrogeomorphic modeling of the Forromeco river basin, Rio Grande do Sul state. Thus, the CAESAR-LISFLOOD model was used to represent the hydrological processes at basin and channel scale. At basin scale hydrographs were generated from the creation of hyetographs for different return periods (RP), considering the largest event recorded in this basin. These hydrographs were used in the channel scale simulations to generate the different flood maps in terms of depth and velocity of water flow. In order to analyze the flood hazard areas, the hazard indexes (HI) associated with the different RPs were determined from the depth and water velocity. Through the IP analysis, the final hazard mapping associated with three RPs (5, 22, and 100 years) was created. In addition, three zones were established to identify the hazard levels, considering the most critical scenario of the three maps. The results showed that the largest flood area is in high degree hazard, occupying 77% of the total area. It indicates that people are in danger both inside and outside houses. At the same time buildings are in high possibility of being damaged.

Ce travail de recherche vise à caractériser les propriétés hydrodynamiques des sols des Cévennes, une zone de moyenne montagne du sud de la France connue pour être sujette à des crues à cinétique rapide, appelées « crues éclair ». Il s'agit donc de déterminer les paramètres relatifs à la conductivité hydraulique et à la rétention en eau du modèle de Mualem-van Genuchten, leur variabilité spatiale à l'échelle du versant ou du petit bassin, et les facteurs qui expliquent cette variabilité spatiale. Il s'agit également d'évaluer la perméabilité du sous-sol constitué d'une roche plus ou moins altérée, et d'en déduire des informations sur les processus de saturation des sols pouvant être à l'origine de ruissellement.Les propriétés hydrodynamiques des sols et du sous-sol ont été estimées par modélisation inverse de la teneur en eau sols, à partir d'une station pilote sur le site de Sumène et d'un réseau de 50 stations de mesure répartis sur 4 versants granitiques (site de Valescure) et 2 versants schisteux (site de Tourgueille). La station pilote comprend 3 sondes de mesure installées à 20, 40, 60 cm de profondeur, et les stations installées sur les versants comprennent chacune 2 sondes de mesure installées à des profondeurs variables allant de 15 à 45 cm. Les teneurs en eau du sol ainsi que les précipitations ont été mesurées en continu au pas de temps 15 min sur les différents sites. La procédure de modélisation inverse est basée sur l'algorithme génétique multi-objectif NSGA-II. Cette procédure a été appliquée pour chaque station, en considérant que le sol d'épaisseur variable constitué de la superposition de 2 horizons, surmontant un troisième horizon figurant la roche altérée sous-jacente. Au total, quinze paramètres doivent être calibrés pour chaque station, et sont estimés à partir de périodes sélectionnées correspondant aux épisodes de pluie les plus importants. Les processus d'évapotranspiration ont été considérés comme négligeables au cours de ces épisodes. L'analyse des propriétés de rétention et de conductivité obtenues a mis en évidence la très forte conductivité hydraulique des sols étudiés, de l'ordre de 1000 à 2000 mm/h, et leur faible rétention en eau. Les teneurs en eau à saturation estimées s'échelonnent de 0.30 à 0.60 cm3.cm-3, traduisant une grande hétérogénéité locale. On retrouve cette forte variabilité pour l'estimation des profondeurs de sol qui varient de 31 à 120 cm. Pour l'horizon représentant le sous-sol, les perméabilités sont très contrastées, avec des valeurs de conductivités hydrauliques variant de quelques unités à plus d'une centaine de mm/h. Les stations présentant les sols les moins profondes et des sous-sols moins perméables génèrent des zones saturées qui se développent à la base du profil de sol, comme ça a été observé et simulé lors des épisodes pluvieux les plus intenses. Si les propriétés des sols apparaissent très variables d'une station à une autre et d'un versant à un autre, les résultats n'ont pas montré d'organisation particulière de cette variabilité spatiale. La position de la station sur le versant n'apparaît pas être déterminante pour les porosités, les profondeurs, les perméabilités et les rétentions en eau des sols ; les distributions de ces propriétés, calculées à l'échelle des différents versants, ne semblent pas reliées aux grands traits du paysage : géologie, orientation, végétation. / This research work aims to characterize soil hydrodynamic properties of the Cévennes area, a low mountain region known to be prone to flash floods. We thus chose to estimate hydraulic conductivity and water retention properties of the Mualem –van Genuchten model and their spatial variability at the hillslope scale and between multiple hillslope profiles. The objectives are also to evaluate the weathered bedrock permeability, and consequently to enhance our understanding of the soil saturation processes.The soil and bedrock hydrodynamic properties were estimated by inverse modelling of soil moisture from a pilot station and a network of 50 stations distributed on 4 granitic hillslope and 2 schist hillslope. The pilot station was instrumented with 3 soil moisture sensors located at 20, 40 and 60 cm deep whereas the hillslope stations were instrumented with 2 soil moisture sensors located variably from 15 to 45 cm deep. Both soil moisture and precipitation were recorded with a 15 min time step for every station. The inverse modelling procedure is based on the multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II. This procedure was used for every station considering a variably deep soil composed by 2 layers surmounting a 100 cm deep third layer representing the weathered bedrock. Fifteen parameters were calibrated for every station, and were estimated from small selected rainfall periods of 1 to 15 days corresponding to the major rainfall events during the monitoring period. Evapotranspiration has been considered as negligible during those events. The analysis of those retention and conductivity properties shows a very important hydraulic conductivity for the studied soils, ranging from 1000 to 2000 mm/h, and their low retention capacity. The soil saturated water content varies from 0.30 to 0.60 cm3.cm-3, which is a consequence of the important soil heterogeneity at the hillslope scale. We also find that heterogeneity on the estimation of soil depth which varies from 31 to 120 cm. For the weathered bedrock layer, we also found contrasted permeability varying from a few units to a hundred of mm/h. Stations with the shallowest soils and the less permeable bedrock presenting a saturation process at the soil/bedrock contact, as monitored and simulated during the most intense rainfalls. If the estimated soil hydrodynamic properties exhibit important variations at the hillslope scale from a station to another, results showed no specific spatial organization of this variability. The station's position on the hillslope is not decisive to estimate saturated soil moisture, soil depth, soil permeability or water retention capacity. The distribution of those properties, calculated for the 6 studied hillslope is not either correlated to the landscape general characteristic: geology, orientation, land cover.

O aumento da ocorrência de desastres hidrológicos relacionados a inundações bruscas tem recebido maior atenção dos diversos órgãos em suas diferentes escalas, com o objetivo de reduzir ao máximo suas causas. Justamente por isso, as medidas não estruturais são medidas de extrema importância na prevenção de tais desastres. Uma dessas medidas deve ser o mapeamento de áreas de perigo de inundações. Portanto, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi propor e avaliar o perigo de inundações bruscas por meio de modelagem hidrogeomorfológica na bacia do arroio Forromeco-RS. Para isso, foi utilizado o modelo CAESAR-LISFLOOD, para representar os processos hidrológicos em escala de bacia e canal. Em escala de bacia foram gerados hidrogramas a partir da criação de chuvas de projeto para diferentes tempos de retorno (TR), considerando como base o maior evento registrado nessa bacia associado a um TR de 22 anos. Esses hidrogramas foram utilizados nas simulações em escala de canal para gerar os diferentes mapas de inundação em termos de profundidade e velocidade do fluxo da água. Para analisar as áreas de perigo de inundação, foram determinados os índices de perigo (IP) associados aos diferentes TR, a partir da profundidade e a velocidade d’água. Através das análises do resultado de IP foi criado o mapeamento final de perigo associado a três tempos de retorno (5, 22, e 100 anos). Além disso, estabeleceu-se três zonas para identificar os níveis de perigo, considerando o cenário mais crítico dos três mapas. Os resultados mostraram que a maior área inundada se encontra em alto perigo, ocupando 77% da área total, o que significa que as pessoas que moram nessa região estão em perigo tanto em casa, como fora delas. Ao mesmo tempo as construções estão em alta possiblidade de serem danificadas. / The increase in the occurrence of hydrological disasters related to flash floods has begun to be more important for several organs at different scales in order to reduce their magnitude and frequency as much as possible. Precisely because of it, non-structural measures are extremely important measures for preventing such disasters. One of these important measures might be the mapping of flood hazard areas. Therefore, the objective of the present work was to propose and evaluate the flash flood hazard by means of hydrogeomorphic modeling of the Forromeco river basin, Rio Grande do Sul state. Thus, the CAESAR-LISFLOOD model was used to represent the hydrological processes at basin and channel scale. At basin scale hydrographs were generated from the creation of hyetographs for different return periods (RP), considering the largest event recorded in this basin. These hydrographs were used in the channel scale simulations to generate the different flood maps in terms of depth and velocity of water flow. In order to analyze the flood hazard areas, the hazard indexes (HI) associated with the different RPs were determined from the depth and water velocity. Through the IP analysis, the final hazard mapping associated with three RPs (5, 22, and 100 years) was created. In addition, three zones were established to identify the hazard levels, considering the most critical scenario of the three maps. The results showed that the largest flood area is in high degree hazard, occupying 77% of the total area. It indicates that people are in danger both inside and outside houses. At the same time buildings are in high possibility of being damaged.

O aumento da ocorrência de desastres hidrológicos relacionados a inundações bruscas tem recebido maior atenção dos diversos órgãos em suas diferentes escalas, com o objetivo de reduzir ao máximo suas causas. Justamente por isso, as medidas não estruturais são medidas de extrema importância na prevenção de tais desastres. Uma dessas medidas deve ser o mapeamento de áreas de perigo de inundações. Portanto, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi propor e avaliar o perigo de inundações bruscas por meio de modelagem hidrogeomorfológica na bacia do arroio Forromeco-RS. Para isso, foi utilizado o modelo CAESAR-LISFLOOD, para representar os processos hidrológicos em escala de bacia e canal. Em escala de bacia foram gerados hidrogramas a partir da criação de chuvas de projeto para diferentes tempos de retorno (TR), considerando como base o maior evento registrado nessa bacia associado a um TR de 22 anos. Esses hidrogramas foram utilizados nas simulações em escala de canal para gerar os diferentes mapas de inundação em termos de profundidade e velocidade do fluxo da água. Para analisar as áreas de perigo de inundação, foram determinados os índices de perigo (IP) associados aos diferentes TR, a partir da profundidade e a velocidade d’água. Através das análises do resultado de IP foi criado o mapeamento final de perigo associado a três tempos de retorno (5, 22, e 100 anos). Além disso, estabeleceu-se três zonas para identificar os níveis de perigo, considerando o cenário mais crítico dos três mapas. Os resultados mostraram que a maior área inundada se encontra em alto perigo, ocupando 77% da área total, o que significa que as pessoas que moram nessa região estão em perigo tanto em casa, como fora delas. Ao mesmo tempo as construções estão em alta possiblidade de serem danificadas. / The increase in the occurrence of hydrological disasters related to flash floods has begun to be more important for several organs at different scales in order to reduce their magnitude and frequency as much as possible. Precisely because of it, non-structural measures are extremely important measures for preventing such disasters. One of these important measures might be the mapping of flood hazard areas. Therefore, the objective of the present work was to propose and evaluate the flash flood hazard by means of hydrogeomorphic modeling of the Forromeco river basin, Rio Grande do Sul state. Thus, the CAESAR-LISFLOOD model was used to represent the hydrological processes at basin and channel scale. At basin scale hydrographs were generated from the creation of hyetographs for different return periods (RP), considering the largest event recorded in this basin. These hydrographs were used in the channel scale simulations to generate the different flood maps in terms of depth and velocity of water flow. In order to analyze the flood hazard areas, the hazard indexes (HI) associated with the different RPs were determined from the depth and water velocity. Through the IP analysis, the final hazard mapping associated with three RPs (5, 22, and 100 years) was created. In addition, three zones were established to identify the hazard levels, considering the most critical scenario of the three maps. The results showed that the largest flood area is in high degree hazard, occupying 77% of the total area. It indicates that people are in danger both inside and outside houses. At the same time buildings are in high possibility of being damaged.

L'objectif de la thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des processus hydrologiques lors des événements de crues éclair. Se basant sur un modèle existant (MARINE), l'étude se concentre sur les processus internes au sol. Une étape préliminaire permet, à partir de l'analyse des données, de confirmer l'activité du socle rocheux durant les crues éclair. Une analyse structurelle de MARINE est réalisée, afin de connaître la sensibilité des flux de subsurface aux choix structurels. Une nouvelle modélisation, plus robuste et intégrant explicitement une représentation des roches altérées, est mise en place. Supposant des chemins préférentiels à l'interface sol/roche, le modèle donne une bonne reproduction des bassins sédimentaires. Sur les bassins granitiques, il sous-estime les récessions et, en conséquence, les éventuels seconds pics de crue, montrant la nécessité de représenter des flux significatifs sur ces bassins, y compris dans la zone altérée. / The purpose of this thesis is to improve the knowledge of hydrological processes during flash flood events using rainfall-runoff modelling. The project focuses on hydrological processes occurring into soil and subsoil horizons. A preliminary data analysis corroborates the activity of the weathered bedrock during flash floods. The hydrological response, simulated by the MARINE model, is then investigated to detect the sensitivity of subsurface flow processes to model assumptions. It leads to several modifications of the model structure in order to make it more robust. Moreover a two-layered soil column is implemented to explicitly integrate the activity of the weathered bedrock into the model. Assuming preferential path flows at the soil-bedrock interface, the model performs well on sedimentary watersheds, but underestimate recession curves and second flood peaks on granitic ones, showing the need to simulate as well significantcontribution from the weathered bedrock.

The final thesis is focused on assessing the current state of hydrological system in the watershed area Jankovice stream and on draft proposal of food protection measures of the village Jankovice. In the first part of the thesis, there is documented the current situation Jankovice stream, its appreciation and draft measures for a improvement the current state. In the following part, there is the elaboration of the sediment transport balance in the stream. In the last part of the final thesis, there is documented the current state Jankovice stream in the village Jankovice and the stream regulation is designed for the purpose of flood protection of the village.

This thesis is written as a cumulative dissertation based on peer-reviewed papers and supplemented by yet unpublished results. It presents methods and results that contribute to a novel approach for estimating water storage within the soil-water-plant system at a single site or in a small catchment (< 100 km2). The focus is on estimating the current/pre-event condition of a study area using simulated soil moisture and applying it as an indicator for flash flood forecasting. These two steps were combined in a semi-automatic framework that was used as a tool for flash flood monitoring after the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) concept. This includes catchments for which Hydro-meteorological data and reliable site characteristics are not available. The overall objective was to demonstrate the capabilities and limitations of the regionally applicable modeling framework based on a lumped-physical model and open-source input data. The questions to be answered are: How reliable are the model outputs estimated by an uncalibrated-lumped model based on regional parameterization and forcing data? What are the potential uncertainties and limitations of such a framework? What are the potential applications of water storage in flood monitoring? The data were derived from freely available datasets. Meteorological input data can come from various sensor networks integrated in an open sensor web, mainly from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) and e.g., the forest climate stations of Sachsenforst. The model description required datasets for elevation (10 m, State Office for Environment, Agriculture and Geology-LfULG), land cover (Copernicus: Land Cover 100m), soil characteristics (BK50, LfULG) and soil profiles from the German National Forest Inventory (NFI). In addition, satellite-based soil moisture product (SMAP-L4-GPH from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-NASA), water gauges data (LfULG) and eddy covariance flux cluster sites of the chair Meteorology at TU Dresden were used for validation. The first publication provides the framework and elaborates on the integration of a model into the open-data platform. The BROOK90 model (R version) was embedded in an open sensor web to estimate daily water balance components for more than 6,000 (sub-) catchments in Saxony. The model performance was validated with stream gauge observations in ten selected head catchments for discharge and with SMAP-L4-GPH for evapotranspiration and soil moisture. The results indicate that the framework is able to provide reliable soil retention estimates in high resolution. The second publication addresses the potential use of radar precipitation in this framework. Here the focus is on examining long-term radar-derived precipitation to improve water balance estimates due to its advantages in spatial coverage. The DWD’s re-analysis radar product, RADKLIM, was applied and aggregated for daily model input. A comparison between radar and rain gauge precipitation was performed to evaluate the quality of the product at the study sites, including the compensation for the catch loss in precipitation using the Richter correction. The results show the satisfactory performance of the framework with radar precipitation. The third publication demonstrates the application of model output to flood warnings. FFG was modified and applied to estimate rainfall thresholds considering the effects of antecedent soil moisture. Once rainfall threshold curves are calculated, only information on rainfall and soil moisture information is needed to issue a warning of a potential flash flood. The method was applied in the Wernersbach catchment in the Tharandt Forest and validated with historical events. The results of the contingency table show the potential of this tool for flash flood warning, but it should be tested with other rainfall runoff models and more catchments prone to flash floods.:Abstract/Zusammenfassung/Tóm tắt 1. Introduction 1.1 Motivation and scope 1.2 Problem formulation 1.3 Target setting 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2. Adjusted Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) framework 2.2 Terminology and definitions 2.2.1 Flash flood 2.2.2 Small catchment 2.3 FFG concept 2.4 Adjusted FFG framework 3. Core publications of the PhD thesis 4. Major findings 5. Conclusions and outlook References List of Abbreviations List of figures List of the author’s publication Appendixes including the core publications Erklärung / Die vorliegende Arbeit ist eine kumulative Dissertation, die auf begutachteten Arbeiten basiert und durch bisher unveröffentlichte Ergebnisse ergänzt wird. Sie stellt Methoden und Ergebnisse vor, die zu einem neuartigen Ansatz zur Abschätzung der Wasserspeicherung im System Boden-Wasser-Pflanze an einem einzelnen Standort oder in einem kleinen Einzugsgebiet (< 100 km2) beitragen. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Abschätzung des aktuellen/vor einem Ereignis herrschenden Zustands eines Untersuchungsgebiets unter Verwendung simulierter Bodenfeuchte und deren Anwendung als Indikator für die Vorhersage von Sturzfluten. Diese beiden Schritte wurden in einem halbautomatischen Modell zusammengefasst, das als Werkzeug für die Überwachung von Sturzfluten nach dem Konzept des Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) verwendet wird. Dies schließt Standorte/Einzugsgebiete ein, für die keine hydrometeorologischen Daten und/oder zuverlässige Standortmerkmale verfügbar sind. Das Gesamtziel bestand darin, die Fähigkeiten und Grenzen des regional anwendbaren Modells auf der Grundlage eines pauschalen physikalischen Modells und von Open-Source-Eingangsdaten zu demonstrieren. Die zu beantwortenden Fragen lauten: Wie zuverlässig sind die von einem unkalibrierten eindimensionalen Modell auf der Grundlage regionaler Parametrisierungs- und Antriebsdaten geschätzten Modellergebnisse? Was sind die potenziellen Unsicherheiten und Grenzen eines solchen Modells? Welches sind die möglichen Anwendungen der simulierten Komponenten des Wasserhaushalts bei der Überwachung von Hochwasser? Die Daten werden aus frei verfügbaren Datensätzen abgeleitet. Die meteorologischen Eingangsdaten stammen aus verschiedenen Sensornetzwerken, die in einem Open Sensor Web integriert sind, hauptsächlich vom Deutschen Wetterdienst (DWD) und z.B. den Waldklimastationen von Sachsenforst. Für die Modellbeschreibung wurden Datensätze für Geländehöhe (10 m, Landesamt für Umwelt, Landwirtschaft und Geologie - LfULG), Landbedeckung (Copernicus: Land Cover 100m), Bodeneigenschaften (BK50, LfULG) und Bodenprofile aus der Bundeswaldinventur (BWI) benötigt. Darüber hinaus werden satellitengestützte Bodenfeuchteprodukte (SMAP-L4-GPH der National Aeronautics and Space Administration-NASA), Pegeldaten (LfULG) und Eddy-Kovarianz-Flusscluster-Standorte des Lehrstuhls für Meteorologie der TU Dresden zur Validierung verwendet. Die erste Veröffentlichung liefert den Rahmen und erläutert die Integration eines Modells in die offene Datenplattform. Das Modell BROOK90 (R-Version) wurde in ein offenes Sensornetz eingebettet, um tägliche Wasserhaushaltskomponenten für mehr als 6,000 (Teil-)Einzugsgebiete in Sachsen zu schätzen. Die Leistung des Modells wurde anhand von Pegelbeobachtungen in zehn ausgewählten Einzugsgebieten für den Abfluss und mit SMAP-L4-GPH für die Evapotranspiration und Bodenfeuchte validiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das System in der Lage ist, zuverlässige Schätzungen der Bodenretention in hoher Auflösung zu liefern. Die zweite Veröffentlichung befasst sich mit der möglichen Nutzung von Radarniederschlägen in diesem Rahmen. Hier liegt der Schwerpunkt auf der Untersuchung des langfristigen, vom Radar abgeleiteten Niederschlags zur Verbesserung der Wasserbilanzschätzungen aufgrund seiner Vorteile bei der räumlichen Abdeckung. Das Reanalyse-Radarprodukt des DWD, RADKLIM, wurde verwendet und für tägliche Modelleingaben aggregiert. Es wurde ein Vergleich zwischen Radar- und Regenmesser-Niederschlag durchgeführt, um die Qualität des Produkts an den Untersuchungsstandorten zu bewerten, einschließlich der Kompensation des Niederschlagsverlusts durch die Richter-Korrektur. Die Ergebnisse zeigen die zufriedenstellende Leistung des Rahmens mit Radarniederschlag. Die dritte Veröffentlichung demonstriert die Anwendung der Modelldaten auf Hochwasserwarnungen. Der Leitfaden für Sturzflutwarnungen wurde modifiziert und zur Schätzung der Niederschlagsschwellen unter Berücksichtigung der Auswirkungen der vorherrschenden Bodenfeuchte angewandt. Sobald die Niederschlagsschwellenkurven berechnet sind, werden nur noch Informationen über Niederschlag und Bodenfeuchte benötigt, um eine Warnung vor einer möglichen Sturzflut auszusprechen. Die Methode wurde im Einzugsgebiet des Wernersbachs und im Tharandter Wald angewandt und mit historischen Ereignissen validiert. Die Ergebnisse der Kontingenztabelle zeigen das Potenzial dieses Werkzeugs für die Sturzflutwarnung, es sollte jedoch mit anderen Niederschlagsabflussmodellen und weiteren Einzugsgebieten, die für Sturzfluten anfällig sind, getestet werden.:Abstract/Zusammenfassung/Tóm tắt 1. Introduction 1.1 Motivation and scope 1.2 Problem formulation 1.3 Target setting 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2. Adjusted Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) framework 2.2 Terminology and definitions 2.2.1 Flash flood 2.2.2 Small catchment 2.3 FFG concept 2.4 Adjusted FFG framework 3. Core publications of the PhD thesis 4. Major findings 5. Conclusions and outlook References List of Abbreviations List of figures List of the author’s publication Appendixes including the core publications Erklärung / Luận án tiến sĩ này được viết như một luận án tích lũy dựa trên các bài báo đã được bình duyệt và được bổ sung bởi các kết quả chưa được công bố. Nó trình bày các phương pháp và kết quả góp phần vào một cách tiếp cận mới để ước tính trữ lượng nước trong hệ thống đất-nước- thực vật tại một địa điểm hoặc trong một lưu vực nhỏ (<100 km2). Trọng tâm là ước tính tình trạng hiện tại / trước sự kiện của khu vực nghiên cứu bằng cách sử dụng độ ẩm đất mô phỏng và áp dụng nó như một chỉ báo để dự báo lũ quét. Hai bước này được kết hợp trong một khuôn khổ bán tự động được sử dụng như một công cụ để giám sát lũ quét dựa theo khái niệm Hướng dẫn về lũ quét (FFG). Điều này bao gồm các địa điểm / lưu vực không có sẵn dữ liệu khí tượng thủy văn và / hoặc các đặc điểm thiếu thông tin mô tả chia tiết đáng tin cậy. Mục tiêu tổng thể là chứng minh các khả năng và hạn chế của khung mô hình áp dụng trong khu vực dựa trên một mô hình vật lý tổng hợp và dữ liệu đầu vào nguồn mở. Các câu hỏi cần được trả lời là: Các kết quả đầu ra của mô hình được ước tính bằng một mô hình gộp chưa hiệu chỉnh dựa trên tham số vùng và dữ liệu đáng tin cậy đến mức nào? Những điểm không chắc chắn và hạn chế tiềm ẩn của một khuôn khổ như vậy là gì? Các ứng dụng tiềm năng của thành phần cân bằng nước mô phỏng trong giám sát lũ lụt là gì? Dữ liệu được lấy từ các bộ dữ liệu miễn phí và có sẵn. Dữ liệu đầu vào về khí tượng đến từ các mạng cảm biến khác nhau được tích hợp trong một Open Sensor Web, chủ yếu từ Cơ quan Khí tượng Đức (DWD) và các trạm khí hậu rừng của Sachsenforst. Mô tả mô hình yêu cầu bộ dữ liệu về độ cao (10 m, Văn phòng bang về Môi trường, Nông nghiệp và Địa chất-LfULG), lớp phủ đất (Copernicus: Land Cover 100m), đặc điểm của đất (BK50, LfULG) và cấu hình đất từ Kiểm kê Rừng Quốc gia Đức (NFI). Ngoài ra, sản phẩm độ ẩm của đất dựa trên vệ tinh (SMAP-L4-GPH từ Cơ quan Hàng không và Vũ trụ Quốc gia-NASA), dữ liệu các trạm thủy văn (LfULG) và các cụm địa điểm eddy covariance được giám sát bởi khoa Khí tượng học tại TU Dresden được sử dụng để xác nhận kết quả mô hình đầu ra. Ấn phẩm đầu tiên cung cấp khuôn khổ và trình bày chi tiết về việc tích hợp một mô hình vào nền tảng dữ liệu mở. Mô hình BROOK90 (phiên bản R) được nhúng vào một trang web cảm biến mở để ước tính các thành phần cân bằng nước hàng ngày cho hơn 6000 lưu vực (phụ) ở Sachsen. Hiệu suất của mô hình đã được xác nhận với các quan sát bằng dữ liệu dòng chảy ở mười lưu vực đầu nguồn được chọn và với SMAP-L4-GPH cho thành phần thoát hơi nước và độ ẩm của đất. Kết quả chỉ ra rằng khung có thể cung cấp các ước tính đáng tin cậy về khả năng giữ nước của đất ở độ phân giải cao. Ấn phẩm thứ hai đề cập đến khả năng sử dụng lượng mưa radar trong khuôn khổ này. Ở đây, trọng tâm là kiểm tra lượng mưa dài hạn có nguồn gốc từ radar để cải thiện ước tính cân bằng nước do lợi thế của nó trong phạm vi bao phủ không gian. Sản phẩm radar phân tích lại của DWD, RADKLIM, đã được áp dụng và tổng hợp để nhập mô hình hàng ngày. So sánh giữa lượng mưa bằng radar và máy đo mưa đã được thực hiện để đánh giá chất lượng của sản phẩm tại các điểm nghiên cứu, bao gồm cả việc bù đắp cho lượng mưa thất thoát bằng cách sử dụng hiệu chỉnh độ Richter. Kết quả cho thấy hiệu suất khả quan của khung với lượng mưa radar. Ấn phẩm thứ ba trình bày việc áp dụng đầu ra mô hình để cảnh báo lũ lụt. Hướng dẫn về lũ quét đã được sửa đổi và áp dụng để ước tính ngưỡng lượng mưa xem xét ảnh hưởng của độ ẩm đất trước đây. Khi đường cong ngưỡng mưa được tính toán, chỉ cần thông tin về lượng mưa và thông tin về độ ẩm của đất để đưa ra cảnh báo về khả năng xảy ra lũ quét. Phương pháp này đã được áp dụng ở lưu vực Wernersbach, trong Rừng Tharandt và được xác nhận với các sự kiện lịch sử. Kết quả của bảng dự phòng cho thấy tiềm năng của công cụ này để cảnh báo lũ quét, nhưng nó nên được thử nghiệm với các mô hình dòng chảy lượng mưa khác và các lưu vực dễ xảy ra lũ quét hơn.:Abstract/Zusammenfassung/Tóm tắt 1. Introduction 1.1 Motivation and scope 1.2 Problem formulation 1.3 Target setting 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2. Adjusted Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) framework 2.2 Terminology and definitions 2.2.1 Flash flood 2.2.2 Small catchment 2.3 FFG concept 2.4 Adjusted FFG framework 3. Core publications of the PhD thesis 4. Major findings 5. Conclusions and outlook References List of Abbreviations List of figures List of the author’s publication Appendixes including the core publications Erklärung

This study was conducted at the mountainous catchment part of Batinah Region of the Sultanate of Oman called Al-Awabi watershed which is about 260km2 in area with about 40 Km long Wadi main channel. The study paper presents a proposed modeling approach and possible scenario analysis which uses 1D - hydraulic modeling for flood routing analysis; and the main tasks of this study work are (1) Model setup for Al-Awabi watershed area, (2) Sensitivity Analysis, and (3) Scenario Analysis on impacts of rainfall characteristics and transmission losses. The model was set for the lower 24 Km long of Al-Awabi main channel (Figure 13). Channel cross-sections were the main input to the 1D-Hydraulic Model used for the analysis of flash flood routing of the Al-Awabi watershed. As field measurements of the Wadi channel cross-sections are labor intensive and expensive activities, availability of measured channel cross-sections is barely found in this study area region of Batinah, Oman; thereby making it difficult to simulate the flood water level and discharge using MIKE 11 HD. Hence, a methodology for extracting the channel cross-sections from ASTER DEM (27mX27m) and Google Earth map were used in this study area. The performance of the model setup was assessed so as to simulate the flash flood routing analysis at different cross-sections of the modeled reach. And from this study, although there were major gap and problems in data as well as in the prevailing topography, slope and other Hydro Dynamic parameters, it was concluded that the 1D-Hydraulic Modelling utilized for flood routing analysis work can be applied for the Al-Awabi watershed. And from the simulated model results, it was observed that the model was sensitive to the type of Boundary Condition chosen and taken, channel cross sections and its roughness coefficient utilized throughout the model reach.

Au XXIe siècle, la prévision de l'aléa hydrométéorologique et des impacts associés aux crues rapides demeurent un défi pour les prévisionnistes et les services de secours. Les mesures structurelles et / ou les avancées des systèmes de prévision hydrologique ne garantissent pas, à elles seules, la réduction des décès lors de ces phénomènes d'inondation rapide. La littérature souligne la nécessité d'intégrer d'autres facteurs, liés aux processus de vulnérabilité sociaux et comportementaux, afin de mieux prendre en compte les risques encourus par les populations lors de ces épisodes extrêmes. Cette dissertation conduit une analyse théorique couplés à ceux de une analyse des accidents historiques mortels afin d'expliquer les interactions qui existent entre les processus hydrométéorologiques et sociaux responsables de l'apparition de vulnérabilités humaines lors de crues rapides aux États-Unis. Des données d'enquêtes liées aux crues rapides sont examinées afin d'élaborer un système de classification des circonstances du décès (en voiture, à l'extérieur, à proximité d'un cours d'eau, dans un camping, dans un bâtiment ou en mobile-home). L'objectif est d'établir un lien entre la conception des vulnérabilités et l'estimation des pertes humaines liées à ces catastrophes naturelles. "Random forest" est utilisé et est basé sur un arbre de décision, qui permet d'évaluer la probabilité d'occurrence de décès pour une circonstance donnée en fonction d'indicateurs spatio-temporels. Un système de prévision des décès liés à l'usage de la voiture lors des crues rapides, circonstance la plus répandue, est donc proposé en s'appuyant sur les indicateurs initialement identifiés lors de l'étude théorique. Les résultats confirment que la vulnérabilité humaine et le risque associé varient de façon dynamique et infra journalière, et en fonction de la résonance spatio-temporelle entre la dynamique sociale et la dynamique d'exposition aux dangers. Par exemple, on constate que les jeunes et les personnes d'âge moyen sont plus susceptibles de se retrouver pris au piège des crues rapides particulièrement soudaines(par exemple, une durée de près de 5 heures) pendant les horaires de travail ou de loisirs en extérieur. Les personnes âgées sont quant à elles plus susceptibles de périr à l'intérieur des bâtiments, lors d'inondations plus longues, et surtout pendant la nuit lorsque les opérations de sauvetage et / ou d'évacuation sont rendues difficiles. Ces résultats mettent en évidence l'importance d'examiner la situation d'exposition aux risques en tenant compte de la vulnérabilité dynamique, plutôt que de se concentrer sur les conceptualisations génériques et statiques. Ce concept de vulnérabilité dynamique est l'objectif de modélisation développée dans cette thèse pour des vulnérabilités liés aux véhicules. À partir de l'étude de cas sur les crues rapides survenues en mai 2015, et en analysant principalement les états du Texas et de l'Oklahoma, principaux états infectés par ces évènements,le modèle montre des résultats prometteurs en termes d'identification spatio-temporelle des circonstances dangereuses. Cependant, des seuils critiques pour la prédiction des incidents liés aux véhicules doivent être étudiés plus en profondeur en intégrant des sensibilités locales non encore résolues par le modèle. Le modèle établi peut être appliqué, à une résolution journalière ou horaire, pour chaque comté du continent américain. Nous envisageons cette approche comme une première étape afin de fournir un système de prévision des crues rapides et des risques associés sur le continent américain. Il est important que la communauté scientifique spécialisée dans l'étude des crues éclairs récoltent des données à plus haute résolution lorsque ces épisodes entrainement des risques mortels, et ce afin d'appuyer la modélisation des complexités temporelles et spatiales associées aux pertes humaines causées par les futures inondations soudaines. / In the 21st century the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to sudden onset and localized flash flooding events remain a challenge for forecasters and emergency managers. Structural measures and/or advances in hydrological forecasting systems alone do not guarantee reduction of fatalities during short-fuse flood events. The literature highlights the need for the integration of additional factors related to social and behavioral vulnerability processes to better capture risk of people during flash floods. This dissertation conducts a theoretical analysis as well as an analysis of flash flood-specific historic fatalities to explain complex and dynamic interactions between hydrometeorological, spatial and social processes responsible for the occurrence of human life-threatening situations during the "event" phase of flash floods in the United States (U.S.). Individual-by-individual fatality records are examined in order to develop a classification system of circumstances (i.e., vehicle-related, outside/close to streams, campsite, permanent buildings, and mobile homes). The ultimate goal is to link human vulnerability conceptualizations with realistic forecasts of prominent human losses from flash flood hazards. Random forest, a well-known decision-tree based ensemble machine learning algorithm for classification is adopted to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators at the county-level and daily or hourly time steps. Starting from the most prevalent circumstance of fatalities raised from both the literature review and the impact-based analysis, flash flood events with lethal vehicle-related accidents are the subject to predict. The findings confirm that human vulnerability and the subsequent risk to flash flooding, vary dynamically depending on the space-time resonance between that social and hazard dynamics. For example, it is found that younger and middle-aged people are more probable to get trapped from very fast flash floods (e.g., duration close to 5 hours) while participating in daytime outdoor activities (e.g., vehicle-related, recreational). In contrary, older people are more likely to perish from longer flooding inside buildings, and especially in twilight and darkness hours when rescue and/or evacuation operations are hindered. This reasoning places the importance of situational examination of dynamic vulnerability over generic and static conceptualizations, and guides the development of flash flood-specific modeling of vehicle-related human risk in this thesis. Based on the case study of May 2015 flash floods with a focus in Texas and Oklahoma, the model shows promising results in terms of identifying dangerous circumstances in space and time. Though, critical thresholds for the prediction of vehicle-related incidents need to be further investigated integrating local sensitivities, not yet captured by the model. The developed model can be applied on a daily or hourly basis for every U.S. county. We vision this approach as a first effort to provide a prediction system to support emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters over the conterminous U.S. It is recommended that the flash flood disaster science community and practitioners conduct data collection with more details for the life-threatening scene, and at finer resolutions to support modeling of local temporal and spatial complexities associated with human losses from flash flooding in the future.

This study was conducted at the mountainous catchment part of Batinah Region of the Sultanate of Oman called Al-Awabi watershed which is about 260km2 in area with about 40 Km long Wadi main channel. The study paper presents a proposed modeling approach and possible scenario analysis which uses 1D - hydraulic modeling for flood routing analysis; and the main tasks of this study work are (1) Model setup for Al-Awabi watershed area, (2) Sensitivity Analysis, and (3) Scenario Analysis on impacts of rainfall characteristics and transmission losses. The model was set for the lower 24 Km long of Al-Awabi main channel (Figure 13). Channel cross-sections were the main input to the 1D-Hydraulic Model used for the analysis of flash flood routing of the Al-Awabi watershed. As field measurements of the Wadi channel cross-sections are labor intensive and expensive activities, availability of measured channel cross-sections is barely found in this study area region of Batinah, Oman; thereby making it difficult to simulate the flood water level and discharge using MIKE 11 HD. Hence, a methodology for extracting the channel cross-sections from ASTER DEM (27mX27m) and Google Earth map were used in this study area. The performance of the model setup was assessed so as to simulate the flash flood routing analysis at different cross-sections of the modeled reach. And from this study, although there were major gap and problems in data as well as in the prevailing topography, slope and other Hydro Dynamic parameters, it was concluded that the 1D-Hydraulic Modelling utilized for flood routing analysis work can be applied for the Al-Awabi watershed. And from the simulated model results, it was observed that the model was sensitive to the type of Boundary Condition chosen and taken, channel cross sections and its roughness coefficient utilized throughout the model reach.