<p>Generellt går det att hantera klimatförändringar på två sätt. Dels genom att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser och dels genom att anpassa sig till de klimatförändringar som kommer. I denna uppsats kommer jag att fokusera på klimatanpassning. Ett av de områdena i Sverige som beräknas drabbas värst är runt Vänern, framförallt då sannolikheten för översvämningar väntas öka på grund av klimatförändringarna. Syftet är att ta reda på vilka problem det finns med att genom klimatanpassning minska risken vid översvämningar kring Vänern, samt undersöka vem som har ansvaret att lösa dessa problem. Metoden är en kvalitativ fallstudie med semi-strukturerade intervjuer som analyserats enligt ”grounded theory”. Även en mindre litteratundersökning har genomförts. Slutsatsen är att de övergripande problemen är att det finns en osäkerhet angående förutsättningen för klimatanpassning, att klimatanpassning är ett så nytt begrepp att det inte riktigt är implementerat i den politiska strukturen än, att det finns bristande medel för genomförandet samt att det finns en brist på samordning. Det övergripande ansvaret att minska sannolikheten för översvämningar ligger på staten. Det övergripande ansvaret att minska sårbarheten ligger till viss del på kommunerna, men är till stor del oklart. Något som skulle vara intressant att studera vidare är kopplingen i praktiken mellan klimatanpassning och hållbar utveckling.</p> / <p>In general there are two ways of coping with climate change. One way is through mitigation and the other is through climate adaptation. This essay will focus on climate adaptation. One of the areas in Sweden which is expected to be the most afflicted is around the lake Vänern, mainly because of the flooding risk which is expected to rise because of climate change. The purpose of this study is to find out what kind of problems there are with climate adaptation as a way of reducing flooding risk around the lake Vänern, and to find out who is responsible to solve these problems. The method used is a qualitative case study with semi-structured interviews. A miner literature study has also been made. The conclusion is that the general problems are insecurity about the background of climate adaptation, climate adaptation is a new concept which has not been implemented in the political structure yet, there is shortage of means for the implementation and there is a lack of coordination. The main responsibility of decreasing the probability of flooding is on the state. The main responsibility to reduce the vulnerability is partly on the county but for some part unclear. Something interesting to study further is the connection between climate adaptation and sustainable development.</p>

Generellt går det att hantera klimatförändringar på två sätt. Dels genom att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser och dels genom att anpassa sig till de klimatförändringar som kommer. I denna uppsats kommer jag att fokusera på klimatanpassning. Ett av de områdena i Sverige som beräknas drabbas värst är runt Vänern, framförallt då sannolikheten för översvämningar väntas öka på grund av klimatförändringarna. Syftet är att ta reda på vilka problem det finns med att genom klimatanpassning minska risken vid översvämningar kring Vänern, samt undersöka vem som har ansvaret att lösa dessa problem. Metoden är en kvalitativ fallstudie med semi-strukturerade intervjuer som analyserats enligt ”grounded theory”. Även en mindre litteratundersökning har genomförts. Slutsatsen är att de övergripande problemen är att det finns en osäkerhet angående förutsättningen för klimatanpassning, att klimatanpassning är ett så nytt begrepp att det inte riktigt är implementerat i den politiska strukturen än, att det finns bristande medel för genomförandet samt att det finns en brist på samordning. Det övergripande ansvaret att minska sannolikheten för översvämningar ligger på staten. Det övergripande ansvaret att minska sårbarheten ligger till viss del på kommunerna, men är till stor del oklart. Något som skulle vara intressant att studera vidare är kopplingen i praktiken mellan klimatanpassning och hållbar utveckling. / In general there are two ways of coping with climate change. One way is through mitigation and the other is through climate adaptation. This essay will focus on climate adaptation. One of the areas in Sweden which is expected to be the most afflicted is around the lake Vänern, mainly because of the flooding risk which is expected to rise because of climate change. The purpose of this study is to find out what kind of problems there are with climate adaptation as a way of reducing flooding risk around the lake Vänern, and to find out who is responsible to solve these problems. The method used is a qualitative case study with semi-structured interviews. A miner literature study has also been made. The conclusion is that the general problems are insecurity about the background of climate adaptation, climate adaptation is a new concept which has not been implemented in the political structure yet, there is shortage of means for the implementation and there is a lack of coordination. The main responsibility of decreasing the probability of flooding is on the state. The main responsibility to reduce the vulnerability is partly on the county but for some part unclear. Something interesting to study further is the connection between climate adaptation and sustainable development.

Submitted by Irene Nascimento (irene.kessia@ufpe.br) on 2016-10-06T19:58:27Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação Bárbara Mantovani.compressed.pdf: 14370352 bytes, checksum: b17fd82ef7c294af0977e1eb132200f3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-06T19:58:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação Bárbara Mantovani.compressed.pdf: 14370352 bytes, checksum: b17fd82ef7c294af0977e1eb132200f3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-29 / capes / A urbanização acelerada associada à ausência histórica de políticas públicas habitacionais levou à população a ocupar desordenadamente áreas de encostas e planícies alagáveis, impulsionando a ocorrência de processos do meio físico causadores de desastres. Frente à ocorrência de eventos de movimentos de massa e inundação de alta magnitude, foi aprovada em 2012 a Lei nº. 12.608 que estabelece diretrizes voltadas à gestão e redução de riscos, com destaque às ações preventivas. Para tanto, o Governo Federal por meio do Ministério da Integração Nacional / Secretaria Nacional de Defesa Civil, iniciou uma parceria com a Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), através do Grupo de Engenharia Geotécnica de Encostas, Planícies e Desastres (GEGEP), com o projeto intitulado “Avaliação da vulnerabilidade e do risco em áreas suscetíveis a deslizamentos e inundações em Pernambuco”. Como compromisso desta parceria e parte da dissertação, foram mapeadas áreas de risco médio, alto e muito alto a processos de movimentos de massa e inundação do município de Camaragibe – PE, considerando aspectos da vulnerabilidade e suscetibilidade. Como complemento, duas áreas foram expandidas e mapeadas em sua amplitude, abrangendo todos os níveis de risco. No total, o mapeamento consta de 102 áreas sujeitas a processos de movimentos de massa e 2 à inundação, distribuídas em 67,56 ha concentrados na porção centro-sul do município onde reside 90% da população local. Foi aplicada a metodologia qualitativa de mapeamento, proposta pelo GEGEP / UFPE e embasada em experiências anteriores, associando vulnerabilidade, através de aspectos físicoambientais e socioeconômico e culturais, e suscetibilidade, a partir de informações geológicogeotécnicas, geomorfológicas e de uso e ocupação do solo. O grau de risco foi obtido por meio de uma matriz que correlaciona estes dois indicadores e 27% dos subsetores obtiveram risco muito alto, 60% alto (incluindo as 2 áreas de inundação), 12% médio e 1% baixo. A metodologia mostrou-se adequada e com boa representação das condições encontradas em campo. Foram comentados os aspectos gerais do município e apresentada a síntese da caracterização geológico-geotécnica de uma encosta com problemas de estabilidade, objeto de pesquisas anteriores do GEGEP / UFPE, bem como suas condições atuais. As características institucionais do município foram avaliadas, os elementos de interesse representados espacialmente e intervenções básicas de engenharia foram propostas para a mitigação de uma área de risco muito alto. / The fast urbanization in association with the historical lack of public housing police have led the population of brazil’s poor regions to occupy disorderly Slopes and floodable plains increasing natural disasters as landslide and flooding. Due high magnitude of these events a Federal Law was published establishing guidelines targeted to management and natural disasters risk decrease in the country, highlighting preventive actions such as mapping risk areas. This research is part of an agreement between the National Integration Ministry/Civil Defense National Secretariat (MI/SEDEC) with The Federal University of Pernambuco / Geotechnical Engineering Group of Slopes and Plains and Disasters (UFPE / GEGEP), with the work has been entitled as “Evaluation of vulnerability and susceptible areas to risk of landslide and flooding in Pernambuco”. The goal of this partnership and part of this work is to present a map of areas with medium-risk, high-risk and very high-risk of mass movements and flooding of occupied areas in the municipality of Camaragibe – PE, from factors related to vulnerability and susceptibility. As a complement, more two areas were expanded and mapped in its amplitude, covering all risk levels. In its totality the mapping contains 102 areas susceptible to mass movements and two susceptible to flooding across 67,56 ha in the southcentral of the municipality where live 90% of the local population. The mapping was done based in the qualitative methodology created by the GEGEP / UFPE group, referring to experiences in past mappings. The vulnerability analysis was planned through the development of indicators associated to two dimensions: physical-environmental and cultural socioeconomics. The susceptibility was analyzed through indicators developed through the geological-geotechnical, geomorphological evaluation and the use and occupation of the soil evaluation. The final risk was obtained through a matrix that correlates the final degree of vulnerability and susceptibility, and 27% subsectors reached very high-risk, 60% reached highrisk (including 2 areas of flooding risk), 12% medium-risk and 1% low-risk. The adopted methodology represented well the field conditions. It was commented general aspects of the municipality and presented a synthesis of geological-geotechnical description of a Slope with stability problems that was subject of several old researches of UFPE/GEGEP as well as its current conditions. The municipality’s institutional characteristics has been evaluated, interest elements were spatially represented and basic engineering interventions has been proposed for a mitigation of very high-risk area.

Les problèmes d’environnement et leur gestion suscitent un ensemble de faits sociaux qui interrogent les relations sociétés/environnement. Le risque d’inondation et plus généralement la gestion de l’eau sont de bons exemples pour analyser ce phénomène. Les tenions générées par les évènements socio-naturels définis par le risque conduisent à identifier des territoires dits « sensibles ». Comment émerge cette sensibilité ? Comment peut-elle s’identifier et comment s’exprime-t-elle ? Cette thèse interroge la notion de sensibilité du point de vue sociologique pour en retenir une définition socio-spatiale. La démarche mise en place a nécessité le recours à la géographie pour mieux considérer la dimension environnementale de l’objet d’étude. La pertinence de la proposition est testée sur le bassin de la Sarthe amont à travers l’analyse de situations générées par le risque d’inondation et le déploiement de sa gestion. Les réactions autour de deux projets d’aménagement de retenue sèche, pour la régulation dynamique des crues, sont plus particulièrement étudiées. En nous appuyant sur le cadre d’analyse des régimes d’engagement (Thévenot, 2006) et particulièrement celui de la justification, nous montrons comment les réactions d’acteurs riverains des cours d’eau se concentrent autour de revendications d’enjeux qui varient selon les secteurs de vallées : demande de protection face au risque dans les secteurs vulnérables ; protection des paysages et maintient des dynamiques locales dans les secteurs amonts. L’analyse des entretiens menés met en évidence que les enjeux se hiérarchisent différemment selon les secteurs. Les revendications antagonistes des acteurs sont sources de tensions et parfois de conflits, qui sont résolues ou non au cours du temps. La mise en relation de la dimension spatiale et de la dimension temporelle, des évènements analysés, permet d’identifier des trajectoires de la sensibilité socio-spatiale. Au final, ce travail montre les difficultés de la mise en partage des territoires de l’eau pour le cas de la gestion du risque d’inondation. / Environmental issues and their managements set off a range of social facts questioning societies/environment relations. Flooding risks, and more generally, water management are relevant examples in order to analyse this phenomenon. Some areas are categorised as sensitive and so because of tensions resulting from socio-natural events which are defined by this risk. Where does this sensibility come from? How can it be identified and how is it expressed? This thesis questions this notion of sensibility from a sociological point of view to eventually take on a socio-spatial definition. This approach required the resort of geography, for a better consideration of the environmental dimension considering the object under study. Through the analysis of situations generated by flooding risk and its management in the Sarthe Bassin is tested the proposal relevance. Main focus will be on the reactions arousing from the development projects of two dry flood barriers- keeping a dynamic control of spates. Considering the analytical frame of the commitment policies (Thévenot, 2006), and more precisely the policy of justification, we point out the way riverside locals' reactions focus on varying claims, according to the different valley areas: request for protection to face flooding risks in vulnerable sectors, protection of the landscapes and finally, that local dynamics are maintained in upstream sectors. The analysis of interviews highlights a different hierarchy among the issues at stakes and so according to the sectors in question. Local actors' antagonistic claims trigger new issues and sometimes conflicts that are not always resolved over time. It leads to an inter-relationship between the spatial and temporal dimensions that enables to identify some trajectories of the socio-spatial sensibility. To conclude, this work illustrates the difficulties concerning the sharing of water territories when the flooding risk management is at stake.

Diss. Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., 2007.

The economic and social losses of environmental disasters are increasingly higher. Floods are a main concern in many locations around the world. Preventive actions are urgent and necessary. This doctoral thesis addresses topics related to hydro-meteorological risks and water resources management. Its aim is to cope with hydrological risks and water resources management through a flooding risk index, complex watershed modeling, different calibration techniques, and ensemble streamflow forecasting. Specific assumptions and research questions are defined in each chapter of the thesis, and are mostly related to the 12,600 km2 Piracicaba watershed, in Southeast, Brazil. Chapter one has general introductions and explains how the thesis is organized. Chapter two brings an assessment and mapping of flooding risks. Chapter three reviews the watershed modelling topic, through applications of a selected watershed model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) in Brazil. Chapter four proposes a good practice methodology for calibration of watershed models for different time-steps with available data, having hydrology as main focus. Chapter five explores different methodologies for calibrating hydrological models, using two optimization algorithms and with a multi-site and single site approaches to evaluate related changes in performance. Chapter six has complex watershed modeling for sub-daily time-step, with an automatic hourly calibration module that was included in SWAT-CUP and the application of these models to forecast ensemble streamflow and with a data assimilation approach with optimization to improve the quality of the forecasts. Chapter seven has overall conclusions and chapter eight has a summarized list of other activities developed during the doctoral process. Overall we believe the methodologies and results for the Piracicaba watershed are very good. And that they can be replicated in other watersheds in Brazil and around the world. The proposed mapping assessments of flooding vulnerability and risks can be applied for the entire Brazil, and could be used as a tool in water resources management and planning. The watershed model (SWAT) used on this doctoral thesis also proved to be a versatile and robust model, with several good example applications in Brazil, and in particular for the Piracicaba case study. The step by step calibration methodology, as well as the different calibrations performed can help other modelers on choosing where and how to calibrate their own models. For hourly application, this work is pioneer, in area scale and model used. The results for ensemble flow forecasting and data assimilation show a little of what can be performed with this kind of application, and that it can be a potential tool for real time applications in streamflow forecasting and early warning systems. We believe the lessons learnt in this thesis can improve and aid modeler and water resources managers worldwide. / Os prejuízos econômicos e sociais de desastres ambientais têm sido maiores. Inundações são uma das principais preocupações ao redor do mundo. Ações preventivas são urgentes e necessárias. Esta tese de doutorado aborda temas relacionados à gestão dos recursos hídricos e de riscos hidro-meteorológicos. Possui o objetivo de lidar com riscos hidrológicos através de índices de risco a inundações, modelagem complexa de bacias hidrográficas, diferentes técnicas de calibração, e previsão de vazões por conjunto. Pressupostos e objetivos específicos são definidos em cada capítulo da tese, e são na sua maioria relacionados à bacia hidrográfica do Rio Piracicaba (12.600 km2), Sudeste do Brasil. O Capítulo um traz as introduções gerais e explica a organização da tese. O capítulo dois desenvolve mapeamento de riscos a inundações. O capítulo três revisa o tópico de modelagem de bacias hidrográficas, através de aplicações de um modelo selecionado (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) no Brasil. O quarto capítulo propõe uma metodologia de boas práticas para a calibração de modelos de bacias hidrográficas utilizando dados disponíveis, com foco principal na hidrologia. O capítulo cinco explora diferentes metodologias de calibração, utilizando dois algoritmos de otimização e abordagens de calibração em um local e demais locais para avaliar alterações relacionadas ao desempenho da modelagem. O capítulo seis trabalha com modelagem sub-diária, com um módulo de calibração horária automática, que foi incluído no SWAT-CUP, e aplicação destes modelos para previsão de vazões por conjunto e assimilação de dados com otimização, para melhorar a qualidade das previsões. O sétimo capítulo traz as conclusões gerais da tese e oitavo capítulo apresenta uma lista resumida de outras atividades desenvolvidas durante o doutorado. Acreditamos que as metodologias e resultados para a bacia hidrográfica Piracicaba são muito bons. E que podem ser replicados em outras bacias hidrográficas no Brasil e ao redor do mundo. O mapeamento de vulnerabilidade e riscos de inundação propostos pode ser aplicados para todo o Brasil, além de possuir potencial como uma ferramenta de planejamento. O modelo utilizado (SWAT) também provou ser versátil e robusto, com vários bons exemplos de aplicações no Brasil, e em especial para a Bacia do Piracicaba. A metodologia sistemática para calibração, bem como as diferentes calibrações executadas podem auxiliar outros modeladores a escolherem como calibrar seus próprios modelos. Este trabalho é pioneiro no tipo de aplicação horária apresentada. Os resultados de previsão por conjunto de vazões e de assimilação de dados mostram o potencial da metodologia para sistemas de previsão de vazões em tempo real e em sistemas de alerta antecipado. Nós acreditamos que as lições aprendidas nesta tese podem auxiliar modeladores e gestores de recursos hídricos ao redor do mundo.

The economic and social losses of environmental disasters are increasingly higher. Floods are a main concern in many locations around the world. Preventive actions are urgent and necessary. This doctoral thesis addresses topics related to hydro-meteorological risks and water resources management. Its aim is to cope with hydrological risks and water resources management through a flooding risk index, complex watershed modeling, different calibration techniques, and ensemble streamflow forecasting. Specific assumptions and research questions are defined in each chapter of the thesis, and are mostly related to the 12,600 km2 Piracicaba watershed, in Southeast, Brazil. Chapter one has general introductions and explains how the thesis is organized. Chapter two brings an assessment and mapping of flooding risks. Chapter three reviews the watershed modelling topic, through applications of a selected watershed model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) in Brazil. Chapter four proposes a good practice methodology for calibration of watershed models for different time-steps with available data, having hydrology as main focus. Chapter five explores different methodologies for calibrating hydrological models, using two optimization algorithms and with a multi-site and single site approaches to evaluate related changes in performance. Chapter six has complex watershed modeling for sub-daily time-step, with an automatic hourly calibration module that was included in SWAT-CUP and the application of these models to forecast ensemble streamflow and with a data assimilation approach with optimization to improve the quality of the forecasts. Chapter seven has overall conclusions and chapter eight has a summarized list of other activities developed during the doctoral process. Overall we believe the methodologies and results for the Piracicaba watershed are very good. And that they can be replicated in other watersheds in Brazil and around the world. The proposed mapping assessments of flooding vulnerability and risks can be applied for the entire Brazil, and could be used as a tool in water resources management and planning. The watershed model (SWAT) used on this doctoral thesis also proved to be a versatile and robust model, with several good example applications in Brazil, and in particular for the Piracicaba case study. The step by step calibration methodology, as well as the different calibrations performed can help other modelers on choosing where and how to calibrate their own models. For hourly application, this work is pioneer, in area scale and model used. The results for ensemble flow forecasting and data assimilation show a little of what can be performed with this kind of application, and that it can be a potential tool for real time applications in streamflow forecasting and early warning systems. We believe the lessons learnt in this thesis can improve and aid modeler and water resources managers worldwide. / Os prejuízos econômicos e sociais de desastres ambientais têm sido maiores. Inundações são uma das principais preocupações ao redor do mundo. Ações preventivas são urgentes e necessárias. Esta tese de doutorado aborda temas relacionados à gestão dos recursos hídricos e de riscos hidro-meteorológicos. Possui o objetivo de lidar com riscos hidrológicos através de índices de risco a inundações, modelagem complexa de bacias hidrográficas, diferentes técnicas de calibração, e previsão de vazões por conjunto. Pressupostos e objetivos específicos são definidos em cada capítulo da tese, e são na sua maioria relacionados à bacia hidrográfica do Rio Piracicaba (12.600 km2), Sudeste do Brasil. O Capítulo um traz as introduções gerais e explica a organização da tese. O capítulo dois desenvolve mapeamento de riscos a inundações. O capítulo três revisa o tópico de modelagem de bacias hidrográficas, através de aplicações de um modelo selecionado (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) no Brasil. O quarto capítulo propõe uma metodologia de boas práticas para a calibração de modelos de bacias hidrográficas utilizando dados disponíveis, com foco principal na hidrologia. O capítulo cinco explora diferentes metodologias de calibração, utilizando dois algoritmos de otimização e abordagens de calibração em um local e demais locais para avaliar alterações relacionadas ao desempenho da modelagem. O capítulo seis trabalha com modelagem sub-diária, com um módulo de calibração horária automática, que foi incluído no SWAT-CUP, e aplicação destes modelos para previsão de vazões por conjunto e assimilação de dados com otimização, para melhorar a qualidade das previsões. O sétimo capítulo traz as conclusões gerais da tese e oitavo capítulo apresenta uma lista resumida de outras atividades desenvolvidas durante o doutorado. Acreditamos que as metodologias e resultados para a bacia hidrográfica Piracicaba são muito bons. E que podem ser replicados em outras bacias hidrográficas no Brasil e ao redor do mundo. O mapeamento de vulnerabilidade e riscos de inundação propostos pode ser aplicados para todo o Brasil, além de possuir potencial como uma ferramenta de planejamento. O modelo utilizado (SWAT) também provou ser versátil e robusto, com vários bons exemplos de aplicações no Brasil, e em especial para a Bacia do Piracicaba. A metodologia sistemática para calibração, bem como as diferentes calibrações executadas podem auxiliar outros modeladores a escolherem como calibrar seus próprios modelos. Este trabalho é pioneiro no tipo de aplicação horária apresentada. Os resultados de previsão por conjunto de vazões e de assimilação de dados mostram o potencial da metodologia para sistemas de previsão de vazões em tempo real e em sistemas de alerta antecipado. Nós acreditamos que as lições aprendidas nesta tese podem auxiliar modeladores e gestores de recursos hídricos ao redor do mundo.