Globally, there are significant quantities of natural gas reserves that lie economically or physically stranded from markets. Options to monetize such reserves include Gas to Liquids (GTL) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) technologies. GTL is a unique monetization option that brings natural gas products to crude oil markets. This technology is commercially immature, appears to have attractive market potential, requires substantial capital investments, and has uncertain operating costs and revenue generation. LNG is a more established monetization option. Project economics for the two technologies are reviewed, as well as literature evaluating such for either or both. Discounted cash flow models are studied for two project scenarios, and results are discussed and compared. The modeling effort seeks to inform the decision to invest in GTL or LNG for the monetization of a stranded gas reserve. / text

A análise de freqüência de cheias através da distribuição de probabilidade generalizada de valores extremos-GEV tem crescido nos últimos anos. A estimação de altos quantis de cheias é comumente praticada extrapolando o ajuste, representado por uma das 3 formas inversas de distribuição GEV, para períodos de retorno bem superiores ao período dos dados observados. Eventos hidrológicos ocorrem na natureza com valores finitos, tal que, seus valores máximos seguem a forma assintótica da GEV limitada. Neste trabalho estuda-se a estimabilidade da distribuição GEV através de momentos LH, usando séries de cheias anuais com diferentes características e comprimentos, obtidas de séries de vazões diária gerada de diversas formas. Primeiramente, sequências estocásticas de vazões diárias foram obtidas da distribuição limitada como subjacente da distribuição GEV limitada. Os resultados da estimação dos parâmetros via momentos-LH, mostram que o ajuste da distribuição GEV as amostras de cheias anuais com menos de 100 valores, pode indicar qualquer forma de distribuição de valores extremos e não somente a forma limitada como seria esperado. Também, houve grande incerteza na estimação dos parâmetros obtidos de 50 séries geradas de uma mesma distribuição. Ajustes da distribuição GEV às séries de vazões anuais, obtidas séries de fluxo diários gerados com 4 modelos estocásticos disponíveis na literatura e calibrados aos dados dos rio Paraná e dos Patos, resultaram na forma de Gumbel. Propõe-se um modelo de geração diária que simula picos de vazões usando a distribuição limitada. O ajuste do novo modelo às vazões diárias do rio Paraná reproduziu as estatísticas diárias, mensais, anuais, assim como os valores extremos da série histórica. Além disso, a série das cheias anuais com longa duração, foi adequadamente descrita pela forma da distribuição GEV limitada. / Frequency analysis of floods by Generalized Extreme Value probability distribution has multiplied in the last few years. The estimations of high quantile floods is commonly practiced extrapolating the adjustment represented by one of the three forms of inverse GEV distribution for the return periods much greater than the period of observation. The hydrologic events occur in nature with finite values such that their maximum values follow the asymptotic form of limited GEV distribution. This work studies the identifiability of GEV distribution by LH-moments using annual flood series of different characteristics and lengths, obtained from daily flow series generated by various methods. Firstly, stochastic sequences of daily flows were obtained from the limited distribution underlying the GEV limited distribution. The results from the LH-moment estimation of parameters show that fitting GEV distribution to annual flood samples of less than 100 values may indicate any form of extreme value distribution and not just the limited form as one would expect. Also, there was great uncertainty noticed in the estimated parameters obtained for 50 series generated from the some distribution. Fitting GEV distribution to annual flood series, obtained from daily flow series generated by 4 stochastic model available in literature calibrated for the data from Paraná and dos Patos rivers, indicated Gumbel distribution. A daily flow generator is proposed which simulated the high flow pulses by limited distribution. It successfully reproduced the statistics related to daily, monthly and annual values as well as the extreme values of historic data. Further, annual flood series of long duration are shown to follow the form of asymptotic limited GEV distribution.

Atualmente, há inúmeras instalações offshore operando em regimes instáveis de escoamento. Tal regime é resultado de diâmetros superdimensionados das linhas de produção ou baixa vazão dos poços. Deve-se notar que, muitas vezes, o regime intermitente se instala no final da vida produtiva dos poços, devido ao declínio natural dos reservatórios, o que causa uma redução da produção do campo de petróleo. Tal instabilidade traz dificuldades na produção offshore, pois pode causar danos nos equipamentos da plataforma ou perdas de produção. Neste âmbito, é necessário estudar meios de atenuar ou suprimir este tipo de regime de escoamento. O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver métodos de forma a garantir a estabilidade do sistema através da modulação adequada da válvula choke, reduzindo ou mesmo eliminando o comportamento oscilatório da produção, mantendo a válvula choke na maior abertura possível, trazendo desta forma, ganhos econômicos através do aumento da produtividade do poço. Para a análise do sistema, utilizou-se um modelo dinâmico simplificado encontrado na literatura. Este modelo foi escolhido por reproduzir adequadamente o escoamento em golfadas severas, causado pela presença de trecho horizontal descendente na linha de produção. O sistema foi também modelado no OLGA®, sendo este, um software comercial com uso bastante disseminado na indústria de petróleo e com grande aplicação em simulações que exigem uma análise do comportamento transiente do problema. A avaliação da eficácia dos métodos de supressão das golfadas foi realizada através de duas abordagens distintas. Inicialmente, utilizou-se um controlador PI adaptativo com capacidade de operação em diferentes regiões de aberturas da válvula choke. Por fim, utilizou-se um Regulador Linear Quadrático associado a um observador de estados com filtro de Kalman Unscented com o objetivo de verificar como o sistema se comportaria em caso de necessidade de um observador para compensar uma possível falha do sensor submarino de pressão. Em ambos os casos, notou-se redução nas oscilações devido a golfadas do poço. As soluções foram implementadas através da integração entre o modelo do OLGA® e os algoritmos desenvolvidos no MATLAB utilizando servidor OPC. / Nowadays, there are numerous offshore installations operating in unstable flow regimes. Such unstable flow is the result of oversized diameters of production lines or low flow wells. It should be noticed that often the intermittent system occurs at the end of the productive life of wells due to the natural decline of the reservoir, which causes a reduction in oil field production. Such instability brings difficulties in offshore production, it can cause damage to the platform equipment or production losses. In this context, it is necessary to consider means to reduce or remove this type of flow regime. The objective of this work is to develop methods to ensure system stability by adequate modulation of choke valve, reducing or even eliminating the oscillatory behavior of the production, with the biggest choke valve opening possible, bringing economic gains by increasing well production The system analysis was carried out using a simplified dynamic model found in literature. This model was chosen by appropriately reproduction of severe slug flow, caused by the presence of downward horizontal section in the production line. The problem was also modeled on OLGA®, which is a commercial software with widespread use in the oil industry and large application in simulations that require a transient behavior analysis. The evaluation of the slugs suppression methods was carried out through two different approaches. First, an adaptive PI controller with capability to operate in different regions of choke valve openings was used. Finally, a Quadratic Linear Regulator associated to an Unscented Kalman Filter was used to verify how the system would behave in the event of a possible failure of subsea pressure sensor. In both cases, there was a reduction in oscillations due to slugs. The solutions were implemented through communication between the OLGA® model and the control algorithms developed in MATLAB using OPC server.

The diploma thesis is focused on testing of effectiveness of selected methods of fundamental analysis on a sample of Russian stocks. The introductory part lists briefly different ways of describing changes of stock prices. The second chapter explains key principles of fundamental analysis with focus on models which are used for determination of intrinsic value of stocks, and the necessary inputs. The following chapter describes development of Russian stock market in last two decades. The last chapter includes stock evaluation of nine Russian companies at the end of 2007 via DCF equity model and dividend discount models. Effectiveness of this analysis is then evaluated by comparison of particular stock return with return of the market portfolio represented by the MICEX index during the three-year time.

A análise de freqüência de cheias através da distribuição de probabilidade generalizada de valores extremos-GEV tem crescido nos últimos anos. A estimação de altos quantis de cheias é comumente praticada extrapolando o ajuste, representado por uma das 3 formas inversas de distribuição GEV, para períodos de retorno bem superiores ao período dos dados observados. Eventos hidrológicos ocorrem na natureza com valores finitos, tal que, seus valores máximos seguem a forma assintótica da GEV limitada. Neste trabalho estuda-se a estimabilidade da distribuição GEV através de momentos LH, usando séries de cheias anuais com diferentes características e comprimentos, obtidas de séries de vazões diária gerada de diversas formas. Primeiramente, sequências estocásticas de vazões diárias foram obtidas da distribuição limitada como subjacente da distribuição GEV limitada. Os resultados da estimação dos parâmetros via momentos-LH, mostram que o ajuste da distribuição GEV as amostras de cheias anuais com menos de 100 valores, pode indicar qualquer forma de distribuição de valores extremos e não somente a forma limitada como seria esperado. Também, houve grande incerteza na estimação dos parâmetros obtidos de 50 séries geradas de uma mesma distribuição. Ajustes da distribuição GEV às séries de vazões anuais, obtidas séries de fluxo diários gerados com 4 modelos estocásticos disponíveis na literatura e calibrados aos dados dos rio Paraná e dos Patos, resultaram na forma de Gumbel. Propõe-se um modelo de geração diária que simula picos de vazões usando a distribuição limitada. O ajuste do novo modelo às vazões diárias do rio Paraná reproduziu as estatísticas diárias, mensais, anuais, assim como os valores extremos da série histórica. Além disso, a série das cheias anuais com longa duração, foi adequadamente descrita pela forma da distribuição GEV limitada. / Frequency analysis of floods by Generalized Extreme Value probability distribution has multiplied in the last few years. The estimations of high quantile floods is commonly practiced extrapolating the adjustment represented by one of the three forms of inverse GEV distribution for the return periods much greater than the period of observation. The hydrologic events occur in nature with finite values such that their maximum values follow the asymptotic form of limited GEV distribution. This work studies the identifiability of GEV distribution by LH-moments using annual flood series of different characteristics and lengths, obtained from daily flow series generated by various methods. Firstly, stochastic sequences of daily flows were obtained from the limited distribution underlying the GEV limited distribution. The results from the LH-moment estimation of parameters show that fitting GEV distribution to annual flood samples of less than 100 values may indicate any form of extreme value distribution and not just the limited form as one would expect. Also, there was great uncertainty noticed in the estimated parameters obtained for 50 series generated from the some distribution. Fitting GEV distribution to annual flood series, obtained from daily flow series generated by 4 stochastic model available in literature calibrated for the data from Paraná and dos Patos rivers, indicated Gumbel distribution. A daily flow generator is proposed which simulated the high flow pulses by limited distribution. It successfully reproduced the statistics related to daily, monthly and annual values as well as the extreme values of historic data. Further, annual flood series of long duration are shown to follow the form of asymptotic limited GEV distribution.

The prediction of moisture and contaminant transport through unsaturated soil to ground water is becoming increasingly important in the fields of hydrology, agriculture and environmental engineering. Computer aided simulation techniques enables one to conduct a series of systematic numerical experiments to analyze flow phenomenon in subsurface hydrology under various physical and chemical processes. The flow movement depends upon medium characteristics, initial and boundary conditions, which reflect, physical processes occurring below the ground. To understand the effects of physical process an efficient and accurate model is needed. Thus the model developed must be able to handle varied initial and boundary conditions. In this regard, infiltration into a very dry soil becomes a very important problem of study. Most of the earlier numerical models developed are concentrated on the development of an efficient algorithm or the modelling of a particular process which govern the flow in unsaturated or saturated-unsaturated homogeneous medium. Not much work has been done on the analysis of variably saturated flow in layered soil medium. Models to simulate unsaturated flow through dry soils, especially through layered soils with varied boundary conditions are very limited. Further, not much studies have been reported in the literature on the prediction of seepage face development and the phreatic surface movement in variably saturated media with layering. These aspects are very important in determining the flow field and the discharge from the domain. A detailed literature review covering above aspects has been made and is reported in this thesis. In the present work, two dimensional numerical models to predict the movement of wetting front in unsaturated domain and the movement of the phreatic surface in homogeneous and layered porous media under various initial and boundary conditions are developed based on finite difference and finite volume techniques. These models can handle flow in both rectangular flow domains and radial flow domains. The initial condition settings include the handling of very dry soil medium without any transformation of the governing equation, handling of infiltration and constant head conditions at the boundaries under steady state as well as transient scenarios. The models are also able to handle various soil moisture characteristics which depict the nonlinear behaviour between hydraulic conductivity, moisture content and pressure head in a soil media. A mixed form of the governing partial differential equation is used in the present study as it leads to better mass conservation. The finite difference model uses a central difference approximation for the space derivatives and an Eulerian backward difference approximation for the time derivative. The fully implicit formulation is solved iteratively using Strongly Implicit Procedure after making Picard approximation for the highly nonlinear coefficients. The process of infiltration into an initially dry soil leads to the development of a steep wetting front. As the finite volume technique is naturally an upwind method, it is expected to play a positive role in modelling such processes accurately. Hence, a finite volume model is also developed by approximating the convective part using a MUSCL approach and a fully implicit central difference method for the diffusive part of the governing equation. The models developed are validated using both experimental data and numerical solutions for problems reported in the literature. The validation problems cover a wide range of physical scenarios such as: infiltration into a very dry soil, infiltration into a dry soil column with gravity drainage, development of water table mound, steady state drainage in a sand filled wedge shaped tank with seepage face development and transient seepage face development in a rectangular domain. Five test problems are used for the validation of the models. The developed models perform very well for the test problems considered, indicating the models' capability in handling such situations. The results obtained by using the present models for simulating flow through highly unsaturated (very dry) soils show that the models perform very well when compared with models which use transformation techniques to handle such problems. The performance of the present models in comparison with the experimental data and numerical models available in the literature show the suitability of the present models in handling such situations. The present models are also used to analyse various types of unsaturated flow problems with varying initial and boundary conditions. The boundary conditions considered are no flow and /or free flow conditions along the left, right and bottom boundaries with infiltration condition along a part of the top boundary. For the various cases considered in the present study, infiltration rate varies from 5 cm/day to 50cm/day through an initially very dry soil of -15000 cm pressure head in homogeneous and layered soils. Different types of soil media considered vary from sandy loam, loam and clay with horizontal and vertical layering of these soils. A total number of 14 cases are analysed. The results are discussed in terms of pressure head variation in the flow domain along with moisture redistribution for all the cases under consideration. It is observed from these studies that the infiltration rate play an important role on the wetting front movement through layered soils depending on the type of layering and the boundary conditions considered. The soil properties of various layers affect the movement of wetting front by changing the direction of movement. Even though the wetting front movement is predominantly vertical, there is a tendency for the wetting front to move in the horizontal direction as it moves from a coarse soil to fine soil. It is also observed that the vertical layering of soils with different hydraulic conductivity helps in redirecting the flow towards the bottom boundary through the neighboring coarser layers. As finite volume method is more suitable for simulating sharp fronts, it is expected to perform better than finite difference method for simulating infiltration into very dry soils. So, a comparison is made between the performance of these two models by using the above test problems. It is observed from these studies that the performance of both the models are same except that the finite volume method takes much more CPU time than the finite difference model. Considering the type of problems tested, it is observed that for modelling unsaturated and saturated-unsaturated flows, finite difference method is better in comparison to finite volume method. It may be due to the predominant diffusive characteristics of the governing equation even while modelling flow through very dry soils. Proper estimation of the seepage height is an important aspect in finding the discharge through the porous medium. It is observed from the literature that the use of a saturated flow model in such situations can lead to an underestimation of the discharge through the porous medium. This effect is more important when dealing with small dimension problems. It is also observed that various parameters which govern the moisture movement through saturated-unsaturated regions affect proper estimation of the seepage face height and there by discharge. Various factors like effect of boundary conditions, type of soil layering, problem dimension and aspect ratio on seepage face development and the associated phreatic surface formation is studied in the present work. It is seen from the present study that the seepage face development is more in rectangular flow domain than in radial flow domain for both homogeneous and layered soils. It is also seen that the seepage face development in rectangular problems are more sensitive than radial flow problems for various factors considered. The seepage height is also influenced by the tail water level. It is seen from the present study that as the tail water level increases the seepage face reduces with no seepage face development for some of the cases studied. This influence is relatively less for radial flow problems. As the length of the domain increases the seepage height decreases. It is seen that for different cases with same horizontal dimension, as the height of the domain increases the seepage face height also increases. This phenomenon is observed for both homogeneous and layered soil medium. The influence of the aspect ratio, which is the ratio of the length to height of the domain indicate that as the aspect ratio increases the seepage height decreases. The type of the soil layering is observed to have a very strong influence on the seepage face development. The study for understanding the effect of soil layering on the development of seepage face and phreatic surface suggest that as the coarseness of the material increases, the phreatic surface become flatter and its steepness increases with the fineness of the soil. The present model is also used for studying the transient phreatic surface movement and the seepage face development. This is studied for homogeneous and layered rectangular soil medium. The present study is used to understand the effect of specific storage on the phreatic surface movement and the seepage face development. The studies indicate that the influence of specific storage on the seepage face development is insignificant in homogeneous soils with only very little effect in the early time for longer domains. It is also observed that the influence of the specific storage is significant in the case of layered soils. This effect depends on the type of layering and the problem dimension and is observed to have influence for relatively longer period. This observation suggests the importance of specific storage on transient seepage face development. When the specific storage effect is considered the drainage of the soil become faster resulting in a faster decline of the phreatic surface with time. The influence of specific storage is also studied considering the problem dimension effect. It is seen that as the aspect ratio increases, the effect of specific storage on the phreatic surface development decreases. The studies with change in the upstream boundary condition from a constant head to a no flow condition indicate that the effect of specific storage has no significant influence on the phreatic surface development for both homogeneous and layered soils.

Atualmente, há inúmeras instalações offshore operando em regimes instáveis de escoamento. Tal regime é resultado de diâmetros superdimensionados das linhas de produção ou baixa vazão dos poços. Deve-se notar que, muitas vezes, o regime intermitente se instala no final da vida produtiva dos poços, devido ao declínio natural dos reservatórios, o que causa uma redução da produção do campo de petróleo. Tal instabilidade traz dificuldades na produção offshore, pois pode causar danos nos equipamentos da plataforma ou perdas de produção. Neste âmbito, é necessário estudar meios de atenuar ou suprimir este tipo de regime de escoamento. O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver métodos de forma a garantir a estabilidade do sistema através da modulação adequada da válvula choke, reduzindo ou mesmo eliminando o comportamento oscilatório da produção, mantendo a válvula choke na maior abertura possível, trazendo desta forma, ganhos econômicos através do aumento da produtividade do poço. Para a análise do sistema, utilizou-se um modelo dinâmico simplificado encontrado na literatura. Este modelo foi escolhido por reproduzir adequadamente o escoamento em golfadas severas, causado pela presença de trecho horizontal descendente na linha de produção. O sistema foi também modelado no OLGA®, sendo este, um software comercial com uso bastante disseminado na indústria de petróleo e com grande aplicação em simulações que exigem uma análise do comportamento transiente do problema. A avaliação da eficácia dos métodos de supressão das golfadas foi realizada através de duas abordagens distintas. Inicialmente, utilizou-se um controlador PI adaptativo com capacidade de operação em diferentes regiões de aberturas da válvula choke. Por fim, utilizou-se um Regulador Linear Quadrático associado a um observador de estados com filtro de Kalman Unscented com o objetivo de verificar como o sistema se comportaria em caso de necessidade de um observador para compensar uma possível falha do sensor submarino de pressão. Em ambos os casos, notou-se redução nas oscilações devido a golfadas do poço. As soluções foram implementadas através da integração entre o modelo do OLGA® e os algoritmos desenvolvidos no MATLAB utilizando servidor OPC. / Nowadays, there are numerous offshore installations operating in unstable flow regimes. Such unstable flow is the result of oversized diameters of production lines or low flow wells. It should be noticed that often the intermittent system occurs at the end of the productive life of wells due to the natural decline of the reservoir, which causes a reduction in oil field production. Such instability brings difficulties in offshore production, it can cause damage to the platform equipment or production losses. In this context, it is necessary to consider means to reduce or remove this type of flow regime. The objective of this work is to develop methods to ensure system stability by adequate modulation of choke valve, reducing or even eliminating the oscillatory behavior of the production, with the biggest choke valve opening possible, bringing economic gains by increasing well production The system analysis was carried out using a simplified dynamic model found in literature. This model was chosen by appropriately reproduction of severe slug flow, caused by the presence of downward horizontal section in the production line. The problem was also modeled on OLGA®, which is a commercial software with widespread use in the oil industry and large application in simulations that require a transient behavior analysis. The evaluation of the slugs suppression methods was carried out through two different approaches. First, an adaptive PI controller with capability to operate in different regions of choke valve openings was used. Finally, a Quadratic Linear Regulator associated to an Unscented Kalman Filter was used to verify how the system would behave in the event of a possible failure of subsea pressure sensor. In both cases, there was a reduction in oscillations due to slugs. The solutions were implemented through communication between the OLGA® model and the control algorithms developed in MATLAB using OPC server.

The diploma thesis deals with the effectiveness of chosen fundamental analysis valuation methods on a sample of stocks. The sample consists of stocks traded on the Prague Stock Exchange and on the New York Stock Exchange. The Czech part of the sample consists of stocks of ČEZ, Erste Group Bank, Komerční banka, Philip Morris ČR and Telefónica O2. The American part of the sample includes stocks of Coca Cola, General Electric, Intel, Southern Company and Bank of America. These stocks are valued by dividend discount models and cash-flow models stepwise to the end of the years 2005 and 2006. As regards the dividend models, the Gordon model, the three-stage model and the H-model are applied whereas within the cash-flow models the DCF equity method was chosen. The effectiveness of the valuation process was subsequently tested over the course of three years by comparing the particular stock returns and the returns of the market portfolio represented by market index. The evaluation of effectiveness is then done in terms of the absolute, the relative and the portfolio effectiveness.

This paper describes a general approach to the specification the stable regime speed-flow function, for motorways, as a part of the stable regime Stochastic Fundamental Diagram consistent with main assumptions of Transportation Systems Theory. Main original elements are: • Specification of speed-flow functions consistent with travel time function, such as BPR-like functions; • Calibration from disaggregate data, say data from single vehicle trajectories; • Specification of the speed r. v. distribution consistent with those used in RUT for route choice behavior modelling, such as Gamma, Inv-Gamma.

Goal of thesis "Valuation of company Auto Koutek, s.r.o." is to determine the value of company for shareholder on 31st December 2009 that should take place in evaluating of company's managers. Thesis is divided in theoretical part, which summarize processes and methods used in valuation of company, and practical part. Firstly practical part analyzes company's performance and its surroundings. This part is followed by financial plan of company for years from 2010 to 2017. Valuation DCF models are than based on this financial plans. Value of company is than analyzed with sensitivity analysis and by Monte Carlo simulation that are trying to analyze uncertainty connected with calculated value of company.