Submitted by JONAS DOI (jonas.nevasca@gmail.com) on 2015-09-04T23:26:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL JONAS.pdf: 427402 bytes, checksum: e027f128b8dbb648fec63fc2a1c487c3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-08T17:33:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL JONAS.pdf: 427402 bytes, checksum: e027f128b8dbb648fec63fc2a1c487c3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-08T20:04:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL JONAS.pdf: 427402 bytes, checksum: e027f128b8dbb648fec63fc2a1c487c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / O prêmio de inflação é calculado pela diferença entre a inflação implícita (diferença entre a taxa de juro nominal e a taxa de juro real encontrada nos títulos públicos) e a projeção de inflação dos agentes econômicos. A mediana do prêmio de inflação no Brasil varia entre 0.2% e 0.5% ao ano. O presente artigo encontra evidência empírica de que um aumento na incerteza dos agentes sobre a expectativa de inflação impacta positivamente o prêmio de inflação. O grau de incerteza dos agentes é medido neste trabalho pelo desvio padrão das projeções de inflação no relatório Focus do Banco Central. O primeiro modelo VAR foi testado com o desvio padrão e os prêmios de inflação para os horizontes de 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 e 36 meses, e apresentou resposta estatisticamente significativa positiva a um impulso no desvio padrão para todos os prêmios exceto os de horizontes de 3 e 6 meses. As respostas ao impulso são semelhantes para os diferentes horizontes. Um segundo modelo VAR foi testado com o desvio padrão, o prêmio de inflação com horizonte de 12 meses, a inclinação entre os prêmios de horizonte de 6 e 24 meses e uma borboleta entre os prêmios de horizonte de 3, 12 e 36 meses para verificar se a incerteza impacta também a forma da curva de prêmio de inflação. Esse não apresentou resposta estatisticamente significativa a um impulso no desvio padrão. Concluiu-se que a incerteza dos agentes impacta a curva de prêmio de inflação em nível, porém sem efeitos significativos no formato da curva. / The inflation premia is calculated by the difference between the inflation breakeven (difference between the nominal yield and the real yield embedded in the government bonds) with the inflation projection of the economic agents. The median of the inflation premia in Brazil vary from 0.2% to 0.5% per year. This article finds empirical evidence that an increase of the agents’ uncertainty over the inflation projections positively impacts the inflation premia. The uncertainty of the agents is measured by the standard deviation of the projections in the Focus report from the Brazil Central Bank. The first model VAR was tested with the standard deviation, the inflation premias for 3, 6, 9, 12, 25 and 36 months, and presented a statistically significant positive response to an impulse on the standard deviation to all inflation premias except for the 3 and 6 month maturities. The responses to the impulse are similar for all the maturities. The second model VAR was tested with the standard deviation, the 12 month inflation premia, the slope between 6 and 24 months and a butterfly between 3, 12 and 36 months inflation premia. This model did not presented a statistically significant response to an impulse on the standard deviation to the shape of the inflation premia curve. We concluded that the uncertainty of the projections impacts the level of the inflation premia curve, but without the significant effect on the shape of the curve.

改革開放以來實施的經濟改革，造成中共內部貪汙腐敗之現象日益嚴重，因此，新聞傳播媒體被賦予扮演權力監督機制的一環，針對一些違法亂紀的政府單位或商人進行監督懲處。然而，不同於西方新聞媒體的角色，在中共威權政體之下，輿論監督必須遵守黨國體制的輿論監督規範，以維持中共統治之合法性。為了探討中共輿論監督之樣貌，以及影響輿論監督的背後因素，本文以中央電視臺《焦點訪談》節目內容作為分析個案，在理論觀點上，以葛蘭西的文化霸權為基礎，結合理論與實證，以2013年該節目之新聞報導內容作為個案資料，討論國家對傳媒的影響，以及《焦點訪談》對政治和社會造成的影響，在此論述過程中，試圖釐清威權主義國家輿論監督的報導原則。 / The economic reforms in China after the opening policy, the corruption in the Communist Party of China (CPC) has become more and more severe.The media, consequently, has been used to endow itself with mechanism of supervising power, aiming at supervising and punishing the government department and businessman breaking laws and violating discipline.However, different from the western media, the public opinion supervision needs under the authentic regime of CPC,to abide by the public opinion supervision regulations of Party-State system.This thesis taking the Focus Report, program of China Central Television (CCTV) as the analysis case, will inquire into the public opinion supervision of CPC and the influencing factors behind it.And based on the cultural hegemony of Gramsci as the theoretical perspective, this thesis, combing the news report of Focus Report in 2013 to discuss how a country to influence its media and the influence for the politics and society of the program itself, will clarify the report principle of public opinion supervision of authoritarian state.