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The proliferation of private voluntary standards (private standards) in international food trade has precipitated a surge of inter-disciplinary discourse on the topic. Conceptual premises have been diverse, but a common thread through the discourse has been their practical impact on developing-country producers (particularly small to medium scale ones). The present paper contributes to legal analyses of private standards. It builds upon existing discourse on rules-based responses to private standards, from the conceptual premise of the rule of law. The perspective of the paper is that private standards are creating conditions wherein the rule of law in international food trade is being placed under strain. With that, the utility of the rules-based system of international food governance has begun to diminish. The viewpoint in this paper is that, from the perspective of the WTO, responses to private standards should be underlain by considerations of safeguarding the rule of law. Underscoring this is that a rule of law approach is the most ideal, in the long-term, for the WTO system and for low income Members themselves. The paper concludes that this will entail a necessarily multipronged strategy towards the challenges presented by private standards – one which incorporates rules-based responses, other interventions from within the WTO, and responses from outside of the WTO. / Dissertation (LLM)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Centre for Human Rights / unrestricted

This dissertation is composed of three manuscripts focusing on food insecurity and food economics in the United States. The first manuscript titled ``Differences in Food Insecurity Across the Rural/Urban Spectrum - The Role of Trade Flows" uses county food trade data to examine its correlation with food insecurity rates based on a county's rural-urban continuum code. In addition, an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is employed to determine the causes of food insecurity rate differences between county's based on their rural-urban continuum codes. The second manuscript titled ``The Role of Infrastructure on Food Flows in the United States" uses county food trade data to examine the relationship between county infrastructure important to the food supply chain, such as roadways, ports, food processing and manufacturing plants, grocery stores, supercenters, and restaurants, and the impact on food trade between counties. Specifically, two types of food trade from two Standard Classification of Transported Goods categories are analyzed: agricultural products, and other food stuffs. A Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood model is employed to account for the zero-trade flows observed between counties. The analysis determines that certain infrastructure has an important impact, and the impact can differ depending on the type of goods category. The third manuscript, "Reactions to Food Safety Recalls Among Food Insecure and Food Secure Households" examines the behavioral responses of food secure and food insecure persons to a hypothetical food safety recall using a vignette approach. The analysis finds that reactions can differ across demographics, including those of food insecure individuals. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation focuses on two areas in agricultural and applied economics: food insecurity and food economics. In the first manuscript, I examine how certain types of food trade among counties in the United States impacts a county's food insecurity rate. I also determine how this impact changes based on a county's rural/urban status. Depending on the type of food that is traded, I find that food trade can have an impact on county food insecurity rates. Additionally, the impact of food trade on food insecurity rates differs depending on the rural/urban status of a county. In the second manuscript, I use county food trade data to analyze the drivers of food trade between counties in the United States. Specifically, I examine how a county's infrastructure encourages or discourages the trade of agricultural products and other foodstuffs. I find that infrastructure like roadways, food processing and manufacturing plants, and ports are important drivers of food trade between counties. Lastly, in the third manuscript, I study how food insecure and food secure persons might react differently to a food safety recall of eggs or romaine lettuce. Specifically, I determine how attributes such as price, travel time to a store, and risk of illness from consumption of a recalled food affect a person's decision to throw away, consume, or refund a recalled food. I find that price and travel time to a store impacts this decision. Additionally, I find that demographics such as a person's food insecurity status, race, age, and gender can influence their reaction to a food safety recall in some cases.

Master of Arts / Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Social Work / Matthew R. Sanderson / Food crises in Kenya are recurring phenomena. Despite widespread and perennial famines, Kenya is exporting food while importing food aid. This study focuses on the concept and question of food security in Kenya. If Kenya can produce and even export food products, why does the country still import food aid every year? Why is the country classified as food insecure? And why does the country still suffer from recurrent famines? Drawing on social science theory from the political economy of food and agriculture, this study postulates that the contradiction between exporting food and importing food aid is related to Kenya‟s subordinate position in the world economy. Using a comparative-historical, in-depth case study research design, this research descriptively explores the relationship between trends in food aid, trade, production and food security. The study finds that the relationship between food trade and aid with food security is mixed in Kenya. Aid and trade have not strongly enhanced food security in Kenya, but food insecurity in Kenya has not gotten markedly worse.

Demand for both food and water are projected to increase substantially in the next four decades. Water scarcity is also projected to increase in scale and complexity. Climate change is projected to increase temperatures, spatio-temporal variability in rainfall, frequency and severity of droughts and soil water stresses to crops. Due to the crucial role of water in crop growth and yield formation, prolonged or severe soil water deficits in crop producing areas can result in substantial yield penalties. The potential of food trade to help address food insecurity as a result of insufficient water availability for crop production has been rationalized in the virtual water concept. The aim of this thesis was to improve the evidence base for understanding and evaluating the relationships between future water availability for crop production and food trade (or virtual water flows), and the utility of the virtual water concept to inform policy and management decisions on water-food security. The UK and barley were used as a model country and crop, respectively. Three crop growth simulation models (AquaCrop, CropWat and WaSim) were evaluated for their abilities to estimate the water use of 10 barley genotypes. Subsequently, the effect of projected climate change on UK barley yields in the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s was simulated using the high, medium and low emission scenarios data from the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09). Projections of total UK feed barley supply and demand were performed to quantify potential virtual water flows and to analyse the implications for food security and policy. The results show that the predicted water use of barley differed between the models but not among the genotypes. Predicted seasonal water use of the barley genotypes ranged from 241.4 to 319.2 mm. Based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and the index of agreement (D-Stat) values, CropWat performed poorly while AquaCrop and WaSim performed excellently. Barley yields under projected climate change increased substantially over baseline yields in all UK regions. Projected mean barley yields for the UK ranged from 6.04 tons ha-1 (2030s) to 7.77 tons ha-1 (2050s). In spite of the projected increase in yields, the UK faces the risk of large deficits in feed barley and meat supply from the 2030s to the 2050s due to a combination of population growth, increased per capita meat demand and reductions in land area allocated to barley production. Finally, current water scarcity concepts were found to be incompatible with water availability and consumption in crop producing areas, a situation that diminishes the usefulness of the virtual water concept for policy. To address this deficiency, a framework for making water scarcity compatible with crop production was proposed. In conclusion, the poor performance of CropWat has implications for its wider use in quantifying global virtual water flows associated with crop trade. Even though UK barley yields are projected to increase under projected climate change, the projected deficits in feed barley and meat supply threatens to destabilize future UK food security. The UK can rely on import to offset the large deficits in feed barley and meat supply but can use the proposed framework to reduce the effect of its imports on water scarcity in the exporting countries. The proposed framework improves understanding and evaluation of the role and usefulness of the virtual water concept in water-food security policy and management decisions.

<p>The Hungarian agricultural sector has undergone substantial changes between 1992 and 2003, which was a period of transformation from command economy to an EU-conform market economy. The question is whether the Hungarian agricultural sector was able to keep its competitiveness despite the extensive transformation. The aim of this paper is to measure the competitiveness of Hungarian agri-food product groups in relation to the ones of the EU-15 during the transformation period. Results indicate that the competitiveness, measured by revealed comparative advantage (RCA), of the studied agri-food product groups has not changed considerably. The strong position of the Hungarian agricultural sector could be maintained because its competitiveness is based on factor endowments, which are not affected by changes of economic policy. The observed moderate fluctuations of competitiveness can be derived to trade concession changes.</p>

The Hungarian agricultural sector has undergone substantial changes between 1992 and 2003, which was a period of transformation from command economy to an EU-conform market economy. The question is whether the Hungarian agricultural sector was able to keep its competitiveness despite the extensive transformation. The aim of this paper is to measure the competitiveness of Hungarian agri-food product groups in relation to the ones of the EU-15 during the transformation period. Results indicate that the competitiveness, measured by revealed comparative advantage (RCA), of the studied agri-food product groups has not changed considerably. The strong position of the Hungarian agricultural sector could be maintained because its competitiveness is based on factor endowments, which are not affected by changes of economic policy. The observed moderate fluctuations of competitiveness can be derived to trade concession changes.

This research includes two areas, with the first area focusing on supermarket food purchasing decisions by consumers in China. A probit model, using consumer food survey data indicates that supermarket food purchases are related to shopping habits, supermarket and food attributes, and demographics. This information should be helpful for those businesses attempting to market food within the Chinese supermarket supply chain. The second part of the study attempts to identify and analyze non-tariff barriers for food and agriculture, with a focus on China. These can include for example, import regulations, such as food safety regulations, food standards, labeling requirements, inspections, import licenses, and SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary conditions), and they are sometimes used by food importing countries to restrict imports. These results show that there are a number of significant non-tariff barriers regarding China – Canada food trade.

This research includes two areas, with the first area focusing on supermarket food purchasing decisions by consumers in China. A probit model, using consumer food survey data indicates that supermarket food purchases are related to shopping habits, supermarket and food attributes, and demographics. This information should be helpful for those businesses attempting to market food within the Chinese supermarket supply chain. The second part of the study attempts to identify and analyze non-tariff barriers for food and agriculture, with a focus on China. These can include for example, import regulations, such as food safety regulations, food standards, labeling requirements, inspections, import licenses, and SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary conditions), and they are sometimes used by food importing countries to restrict imports. These results show that there are a number of significant non-tariff barriers regarding China – Canada food trade.

This research investigates the impact of disruptions and regional integration on agricultural and food trade, relying on a unique international and intranational (domestic) agri-food trade dataset and structural gravity. In the first chapter, we investigate the impact of animal diseases on trade of animal-based products. We found that animal disease outbreaks decrease exports by 4% on average per year, amounting to annualized losses of 96 billion of 2019 USD. Trade quantities decline by 8% (51 million tons) on average per year. Impacts are mostly concentrated on consumer products (mainly pork), and low-income and lower-medium-income exporting countries. Our results suggest that animal diseases affect more domestic markets than foreign ones, and that dependent importers are the most sensitive to animal disease outbreaks abroad. Lastly, participation in the same RTA is found to mitigate animal diseases' trade impact, showing another potential channel through which regional integration could affect members' trade. In the second chapter, we explore the effect of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on agricultural and food trade flows. We consider the entire official lifetime of the agreement, including its 14-years phase-in period, which allow us to offer a comprehensive evaluation of one of the biggest trade agreements on agri-food trade. NAFTA is found to increase members' trade on average by 54%, corresponding to 11.9 billion of 2020 USD, annually. Trade involving Mexico, and especially Canada-Mexico, has increased substantially showing that trade agreements between developed and developing countries could be beneficial to both members. NAFTA's impact is found to be heterogeneous by products with cereals experiencing the biggest increase. Trade of products incompletely liberalized by NAFTA such as dairy, poultry, and eggs, did not increase as much as the trade of liberalized products. We do not find evidence of trade diversion, suggesting that NAFTA's agri-food trade gains did not come at the expense of trading with other partners. Lastly, NAFTA appears to be more trade enhancing (about four times more) than other agreements of Canada, Mexico and the U.S. (e.g. Canada-E.U., or Mexico-Brazil, or U.S.-Korea.) In the third chapter, we question whether trade agreements alleviate the impact of shocks on trade. More specifically, we investigate if RTAs mitigate the impact of exchange rate (ER) volatility on agri-food trade. We found that RTAs amplify the effect of ER volatility on agri-food trade. The trade impact of ER volatility on RTA members is found to be positive, suggesting that members' agri-food trade benefits from ER volatility, contrary to non-members' trade. This could result from larger profits from arbitrage due to reduced trade costs between RTA members. Our results display a strong heterogeneity according to sectors, exporters and importers' income, and level of integration of RTA. Only Partial Scope Agreements, the lowest regional integration level, amplify the effect of ER volatility on members' agri-food trade. / Doctor of Philosophy / This research evaluates the impact of factors that cause trade disruption and the impact of trade agreements on agricultural and food trade. In the first chapter, we investigate the impact of animal diseases on trade of animal-related products. Findings indicate that animal diseases decrease the value of trade on average 4% annually, amounting to 96 billion of 2019 USD annualized loss. Trade quantities are reduced by 8%, or 51 million tons yearly on average. This impact differs with respect to animal diseases, products, and income levels of countries. Animal diseases affect more the domestic market, while countries depending to foreign suppliers are those affected the most by animal disease outbreaks abroad. Regional trade agreements (RTAs) mitigate the impact of animal diseases, showing that trade integration could benefit their members beyond the lowering their tariffs. In the second chapter, we evaluate the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on agri-food trade. We found that NAFTA increased members' trade by 54%, amounting to 11.9 billion of 2020 USD annually on average. NAFTA's trade gains were distributed heterogeneously across members, with trade between Canada and Mexico recording the largest proportional gains. Cereals recorded substantial gains during NAFTA, while the trade of beef and vegetables also increased. The trade though of some products that did not become completely tariff-free by members, such as eggs, dairy, and poultry, underperformed. Lastly, NAFTA increased Canada, Mexico, and U.S. trade about 4.5 times more than the other agreements signed by the three countries. In the third chapter, we investigate whether RTAs mitigate the impact of exchange rate (ER) volatility on agri-food trade. The results suggest that RTAs amplify the impact of ER volatility, however, this is in favor of RTA members, since the impact of ER volatility on their trade is positive. The results are heterogeneous across sectors, incomes of exporters and importers, and extent of liberalization by RTAs. Partial Scope Agreements, the lowest level of trade liberalizing agreements, are the only type of RTAs that amplify (or affect in general) the effect of ER volatility on members' agri-food trade.