<p>This paper uses co-integration method and error-correction model to re-examine the relationship between real exchange rate and expected interest rate differentials, including cumulated current account balance, over floating exchange rate periods. As indicated by the dynamic model, I find that there is a long run relationship among the variables using Johansen co-integration method. Final conclusion is that the empirical evidence is provided to show that our error-correction model leads to a good real exchange rate forecast.</p>

This study examines whether earnings guidance contributes to investor short-termism -- excessive focus on a firm's short term performance and insufficient consideration of its long-term value creation potential. Using an adaptation of Ohlson's (1995) valuation model, I find that investors place significantly higher (lower) weight on short-term (long-term) earnings of quarterly guidance firms than on the corresponding earnings of non-guidance firms. Further tests indicate that the differential weighting cannot be fully explained by measurement errors, earnings properties, risk, or accuracy of analysts' forecasts. For a sample of guidance initiating firms, I find no differential valuations of firm value components before the initiation of guidance, but large differential valuations after guidance initiation. In contrast, for guidance discontinuation firms, I find that investors shift their focus from short-term to long-term earnings after the discontinuation of guidance. Together, the results support critics' claim that quarterly guidance contributes to short-term fixation in the market. / text

In this paper, the forecast performance of an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was compared against the forecast accuracy of a Vector error correction (VECM) model when computing out-of-sample forecasts for Swedish exports. The co-integrating relation used to estimate the error correction specification was based upon an economic theory for international trade suggesting that a long run equilibrium relation among the variables included in an export demand equation should exist. The results obtained provide evidence of a long run equilibrium relationship between the Swedish export volume and its main determinants. The models were estimated for manufactured goods using quarterly data for the period 1975-1999 and once estimated, the models were used to compute out-of-sample forecasts up to four-, eight- and twelve-quarters ahead for the Swedish export volume using both multi-step and one-step ahead forecast techniques. The main results suggest that the differences in forecasting ability between the two models are small, however according to the relevant evaluation criteria the unrestricted VAR model in general yields somewhat better forecast than the VECM model when forecasting Swedish exports over the chosen forecast horizons.

Adam Wei is employing homegrown UBC technology to help manage the sustainability of China’s fir trees.

Die Arbeit analysiert die Bedeutung des demografischen Wandels für die Entwicklung der Gesundheitsausgaben in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2050. Anhand von Querschnittsdaten der amtlichen Statistik für den Bereich der Krankenhäuser wird unter der Annahme konstanter Altersprofile der Gesundheitsausgaben pro Kopf sowie konstanter Inzidenzraten der isolierte demografisch bedingte Ausgabenanstieg prognostiziert. Der theoretische Teil der Arbeit stellt weitere Einflussfaktoren sowie die Medikalisierungs- und Kompressionsthese zur Entwicklung von Morbidität im Alter vor. Als Antwort auf den diagnostizierten Anstieg der Ausgaben werden mögliche Reformansätze diskutiert. / The paper analyses the effects of continued demographic change on health expenditure in Germany until 2050. Using cross sectional data from official statistics for hospitals the isolated effect of demographic change on future expenditure is predicted by assuming time-invariant age-specific expenditure profiles per capita and incidence for specific groups of diagnoses. Further influencing factors as well as competing theories of compression versus expansion of morbidity are presented. As a reaction to the challenge of expected further increases in health expenditure, possible reforms are discussed.

Darbe analizuojama įvairių veiksnių bei priežastinių ryšių įtaką Lietuvos maisto produktų gamybos įrenginių rinkos parametrų pokyčiams – įrenginių importo, eksporto rinkoje apimtims bei jų vertei. Tyrimų tikslas - išanalizuoti Lietuvos maisto produktų gamybos įrenginių rinkos kiekybinius pokyčius, įvertinant makroaplinkos įtaką. Darbo uždaviniai – nustatyti Lietuvos maisto produktų gamybos įrenginių importo, eksporto kiekybinius pokyčius šalyje; paklausos vertinimo ir prognozavimo ekonominių aspektų analizė bei prognozavimo metodų parinkimo kriterijai; parinkti prognozavimo metodą maisto gamybos įrenginių importo prognozei sudaryti; įvertinti gautas pirmines prognozes. Darbe yra 60 teksto puslapių, 8 lentelės, 13 paveikslų, 53 priedų puslapiai, naudota 40 literatūros šaltinių. / In this work there is tried to analyse of the various factors and causalities to the rates of market alterations of the food equipment in Lithuania – to the quantity and to the value of the equipment import and export in the market. The object of this research is to analyse the market quantitative alterations of the food equipment in Lithuania and to evaluate macroeconomic influence. Main tasks are to clarify the market quantitative alterations of the Lithuanian food equipment import and export in this country; the economic dimensions analyse of the demand evaluation and forecasting and the selection parameters of the forecasting methods; to select the forecasting method to make the forecast for the food equipment import; to evaluate forthcoming primary forecasts. There are 60 text pages, 8 tables, 13 pictures, 53 extras pages used 40 sources of literature.

Vienas iš darbo tikslų yra apžvelgti rizikos sąvokos aiškinimus, jos rūšis, veiksnius bei vertinimo ir analizės metodus. Šio darbo tyrimo tikslas – vertinti pasirinktos įmonės X riziką pagal finansinių ataskaitų duomenis. Siekiant įvertinti įmonės riziką ateičiai, darbe prognozuosime 2007 -2008 metams statistinius įmonės dydžius: nuosavo kapitalo vertę, grynąjį pelną, įsipareigojimus, turtą ir kt. Pagal realius ir prognozuotus duomenis skaičiuosime finansinius rodiklius. Prognozes atliksime pagal tiesinius ir netiesinius prognozavimo metodus. / Risk is interpreted and explained very various. The risk is necessary in Lithuanian economical system, because the produce are begun to make earlier than demand begin to grow. The purpose of this work is to review interpretation of risk, it’s kinds, factors, methods of analysis and estimation. In this work, risk of the firm estimate by statistical data of financial accounts. We forecast statistical firm’s data: the capital, the net profit, the liabilities, the assets and etc.; for 2007 and 2008 years. We compute financial indexes by real and forecast data. In this work, we forecast number by trends with seasonal decompositions, curve of Regression, Moving Average method, Simple Exponential smoothing method, Autoregressive model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. We use the statistical and analytical software package STATISTICA. After forecasting number of assets, liabilities we got that Polynomial trend with seasonal components is the best model for them. Logarithmical trend with seasonal components is the most infallible model for capital’s forecasting number. The best model for interest is Autoregressive model. The best model for net profit is Regression model. Risk of the firm is estimated by calculated financial indexes ROCE, ROA, ROI.

No description available.

Severe thunderstorm warnings (SVTs) are released by meteorologists in the local forecast offices of the National Weather Service (NWS). These warnings are issued with the intent of alerting areas in the path of severe thunderstorms that human and property risk are elevated, and that appropriate precautionary measures should be taken. However, studies have shown that the spatial distribution of severe storm warnings demonstrates bias. Greater numbers of severe thunderstorm warnings sometimes are issued where population is denser. By contrast, less populated areas may be underwarned. To investigate the spatial patterns of these biases for the central and southeastern United States, geographically weighted regression was implemented on a set of demographic and land cover descriptors to ascertain their patterns of spatial association with counts of National Weather Service severe thunderstorm warnings. GWR was performed for each our independent variables (total population, median income, and percent impervious land cover) and for all three of these variables as a group. Global R2 values indicate that each individual variable as well as all three collectively explain approximately 60% of the geographical variation in severe thunderstorm warning counts. Local R2 increased in the vicinity of several urban regions, notably Atlanta, Washington, D.C., St. Louis, and Nashville. However, the independent variables did not exhibit the same spatial patterning of R2. Some cities had high local R2 for all variables. Other cities exhibited high local R2 for only one or two of these independent variables. Median income had the highest local R2 values overall. Standardized residuals confirmed significant differences among several NWS forecast offices in the number and pattern of severe thunderstorm warnings. Overall, approximately half of the influences on the distribution of severe thunderstorm warnings across the study area are related to underlying land cover and demographics. Future studies may find it productive to investigate the extent to which the spatial bias mapped in this study is an artifact of forecast culture, background thunderstorm regime, or a product of urban anthropogenic weather modification.

We provide a systematic comparison of the out-of-sample forecasts based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations for the euro against the US dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations help to improve over benchmark trading strategies for the exchange rate against the US dollar and the British pound, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited. For the euro against the Swiss franc or the Japanese yen, no evidence of generalized improvement in profit measures over the benchmark is found. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series