Volcanic eruptions produce a range of concurrent, sequential and recurrent hazards which can impact society and critical infrastructure. For daily activities, modern societies are reliant on dependable functioning critical infrastructure, such as electrical supply; water supply; wastewater; transportation; communication networks; buildings; air conditioning and ventilation systems; and electronic equipment. In addition, during volcanic eruptions these sectors are vital for effective emergency response and recovery. Despite the importance of critical infrastructure, the systematic quantification of their vulnerability to volcanic hazards, a key aspect of volcanic risk management, has received little research attention. Successful volcanic risk management and disaster risk reduction are cost effective investments in preventing future losses during eruptions and increasing resilience to volcanic hazard impacts. Effective volcanic risk management requires the characterisation of both hazards and vulnerabilities to the same level of detail. This thesis develops a methodological framework to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure sectors to volcanic hazard impacts. The focus is on fragility and vulnerability functions which provide quantitative relationships between impact (damage and disruption) and volcanic hazard intensity. The framework details how post-eruption infrastructure impact data, compiled in a newly established infrastructure impacts database, can be classified by hazard and impact intensity to derive vulnerability and fragility functions. Using the vulnerability framework, fragility functions for several critical infrastructure sectors for volcanic tephra fall impacts are derived. These functions are the first attempt to quantify the vulnerability of critical infrastructure sectors using a systematic approach. Using these fragility functions, risk is estimated for the electrical transmission network in the North Island of New Zealand using a newly developed probabilistic tephra fall hazard assessment. This thesis and framework provide a pathway forward for volcanic risk scientists to advance volcanic vulnerability assessments such that comprehensive and robust quantitative volcanic risk assessments are commonplace in infrastructure management practices. Improved volcanic vulnerability and risk assessments leads to enhanced risk-based decision making, prioritisation of risk reduction investment and overall reduction in volcanic risk.

A fragility function quantifies the probability that a structural system reaches an undesirable limit state, conditioned on the occurrence of a hazard of prescribed intensity level. Multiple sources of uncertainty are present when estimating fragility functions, e.g., record-to-record variation, uncertain material and geometric properties, model assumptions, adopted methodologies, and scarce data to characterize the hazard. Advances in the last decades have provided considerable research about parameter selection, hazard characteristics and multiple methodology for the computation of these functions. However, there is no clear path on the type of methodologies and data to ensure that accurate fragility functions can be computed in an efficient manner. Fragility functions are influenced by the selection of a methodology and the data to be analyzed. Each selection may lead to different levels of accuracy, due to either increased potential for bias or the rate of convergence of the fragility functions as more data is used. To overcome this difficulty, it is necessary to evaluate the level of agreement between different statistical models and the available data as well as to exploit the information provided by each piece of available data. By doing this, it is possible to accomplish more accurate fragility functions with less uncertainty while enabling faster and widespread analysis. In this dissertation, two methodologies are developed to address the aforementioned challenges. The first methodology provides a way to quantify uncertainty and perform statistical model selection to compute seismic fragility functions. This outcome is achieved by implementing a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework in conjunction with a sequential Monte Carlo technique. Using a finite amount of simulations, the stochastic map between the hazard level and the structural response is constructed using Bayesian inference. The Bayesian approach allows for the quantification of the epistemic uncertainty induced by the limited number of simulations. The most probable model is then selected using Bayesian model selection and validated through multiple metrics such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The subsequent methodology proposes a sequential selection strategy to choose the earthquake with characteristics that yield the largest reduction in uncertainty. Sequentially, the quantification of uncertainty is exploited to consecutively select the ground motion simulations that expedite learning and provides unbiased fragility functions with fewer simulations. Lastly, some examples of practices during the computation of fragility functions that results i n undesirable bias in the results are discussed. The methodologies are implemented on a widely studied twenty-story steel nonlinear benchmark building model and employ a set of realistic synthetic ground motions obtained from earthquake scenarios in California. Further analysis of this case study demonstrates the superior performance when using a lognormal probability distribution compared to other models considered. It is concluded by demonstrating that the methodologies developed in this dissertation can yield lower levels of uncertainty than traditional sampling techniques using the same number of simulations. The methodologies developed in this dissertation enable reliable and efficient structural assessment, by means of fragility functions, for civil infrastructure, especially for time-critical applications such as post-disaster evaluation. Additionally, this research empowers implementation by being transferable, facilitating such analysis at community level and for other critical infrastructure systems (e.g., transportation, communication, energy, water, security) and their interdependencies.

[ES] Los edificios históricos tienen un gran valor arquitectónico y cultural y son un bien muy preciado de nuestra civilización. Por ello, no es de extrañar que se hagan grandes esfuerzos para conservarlos. Sin embargo, a pesar de los avances en la investigación, el fuego sigue siendo una amenaza importante para lograr la conservación del patrimonio construido. Además, los códigos de incendios actuales no suelen proporcionar directrices o métodos específicos que tengan en cuenta las características únicas de los edificios históricos. En consecuencia, conseguir que estos edificios cumplan la normativa de seguridad contra incendios evitando al mismo tiempo la pérdida de patrimonio supone un gran reto. En este contexto, la presente tesis doctoral se centra en el análisis de la resistencia frente al fuego de los forjados de viguetas de madera y revoltones de ladrillos, que pueden encontrarse en muchos edificios históricos de todo el mundo, utilizando enfoques deterministas y probabilistas basados en el rendimiento. Además, la tesis propone modelos probabilísticos para caracterizar las propiedades físicas y mecánicas de la madera contemporánea e histórica a temperatura ambiente y a temperaturas elevadas, que se adoptan en dichos enfoques probabilistas. Debido a la singular geometría y configuración estructural de estos forjados históricos, los métodos establecidos por los códigos de incendios actuales para verificar su resistencia frente al fuego no son aplicables. Por ello, se propone una nueva metodología basada en el "Método de la sección reducida" de la actual EN 1995-1-2. A continuación, la metodología se aplica a un amplio número de forjados que abarcan diferentes luces, resistencias a flexión de la madera y exposiciones al fuego para evaluar la influencia de estos parámetros en la resistencia frente al fuego. Posteriormente, debido al considerable número de parámetros de entrada con una alta incertidumbre que influyen en la resistencia frente al fuego de los forjados de viguetas de madera y revoltones de ladrillos, se adopta un enfoque probabilístico. El análisis asume diferentes secciones transversales y luces para los forjados históricos, así como múltiples geometrías del sector de incendio. Además, considera la incertidumbre de las cargas permanentes y variables aplicadas, así como de las propiedades físicas y mecánicas de la madera a temperatura ambiente y a altas temperaturas. De este modo, en base a un gran número de simulaciones numéricas, se desarrollan curvas de fragilidad y se obtienen los índices de fiabilidad de los forjados históricos frente al fuego. Los resultados muestran que, aunque los enfoques probabilísticos pueden ayudar a preservar un número significativamente mayor de forjados históricos de viguetas de madera y revoltones de ladrillos, muchos de ellos pueden no cumplir los requisitos de resistencia frente al fuego establecidos por los códigos actuales, lo que es motivo de preocupación. Por lo tanto, llevar a cabo estos análisis resulta esencial para garantizar su resistencia frente al fuego y tomar medidas en caso necesario. En definitiva, esta tesis doctoral pretende promover la conservación racional de las estructuras históricas de madera y, en consecuencia, del patrimonio construido. Además, se prevé que los modelos deterministas y probabilistas propuestos también permitan el diseño de estructuras de madera más fiables y eficientes. Así, fomentando la rehabilitación frente a la demolición y la nueva construcción e incentivando el uso de la madera en nuevas estructuras, se puede contribuir también a la mejora de la sostenibilidad del sector de la construcción. Por último, se espera que esta tesis sirva para concienciar sobre la alta vulnerabilidad de los edificios históricos frente al fuego y, en última instancia, para fomentar futuras investigaciones encaminadas a la búsqueda de soluciones que permitan cumplir los requisitos de seguridad contra incendios sin comprometer el patrimonio existente. / [CA] Els edificis històrics tenen un gran valor arquitectònic i cultural i són un bé molt preuat de la nostra civilització. Per això, no és d'estranyar que es facen grans esforços per a conservar-los. No obstant això, malgrat els avanços en la investigació, el foc continua sent una amenaça important per a aconseguir la conservació del patrimoni construït. A més, els codis d'incendis actuals no solen proporcionar directrius o mètodes específics que tinguen en compte les característiques úniques dels edificis històrics. En conseqüència, aconseguir que estos edificis complisquen la normativa de seguretat contra incendis evitant al mateix temps la pèrdua de patrimoni suposa un gran repte. En este context, la present tesi doctoral se centra en l'anàlisi de la resistència al foc dels forjats de biguetes de fusta i revoltons de rajoles, que poden trobar-se en molts edificis històrics de tot el món, utilitzant enfocaments deterministes i probabilistes basats en el rendiment. A més, la tesi proposa models probabilístics per a caracteritzar les propietats físiques i mecàniques de la fusta contemporània i històrica a temperatura ambient i a temperatures elevades, que després s'adopten en els enfocaments probabilistes. A causa de la singular geometria i configuració estructural d'estos forjats històrics, els mètodes establits pels codis d'incendis actuals per a verificar la seua resistència al foc no són aplicables. Per això, es proposa una nova metodologia basada en el "Mètode de la secció reduïda" de l'actual EN 1995-1-2. A continuació, la metodologia s'aplica a un ampli nombre de forjats que abasten diferents llums, resistències a flexió de la fusta i exposicions al foc per a avaluar la influència d'estos paràmetres en la resistència al foc. Posteriorment, a causa del considerable nombre de paràmetres d'entrada amb una alta incertesa que influïxen en la resistència al foc dels forjats de biguetes de fusta i revoltons de rajoles, s'adopta un enfocament probabilístic. L'anàlisi assumix diferents seccions transversals i llums per als forjats històrics, així com múltiples geometries del sector d'incendi. A més, considera la incertesa de les càrregues permanents i variables aplicades, així com de les propietats físiques i mecàniques de la fusta a temperatura ambient i a temperatures elevades. D'esta manera, a partir d'un gran nombre de simulacions numèriques, es desenvolupen corbes de fragilitat i s'obtenen els índexs de fiabilitat dels forjats històrics davant del foc. Els resultats mostren que, encara que els enfocaments probabilístics poden ajudar a preservar un nombre significativament major de forjats històrics de biguetes de fusta i revoltons de rajoles, molts d'ells poden no complir els requisits de resistència al foc establits pels codis actuals, la qual cosa és motiu de preocupació. Per tant, dur a terme estes anàlisis resulta essencial per a garantir la seua resistència al foc i prendre mesures en cas necessari. En definitiva, esta tesi doctoral pretén promoure la conservació racional de les estructures històriques de fusta i, en conseqüència, del patrimoni construït. A més, es preveu que els models deterministes i probabilistes proposats també permeten el disseny d'estructures de fusta més fiables i eficients. D'esta manera, fomentant la rehabilitació per sobre de la demolició i la nova construcció i incentivant l'ús de la fusta en noves estructures, es pot contribuir també a la millora de la sostenibilitat del sector de la construcció. Finalment, s'espera que la present tesi doctoral servisca per a conscienciar sobre l'alta vulnerabilitat dels edificis històrics davant del foc i, en última instància, per a fomentar futures investigacions encaminades a la cerca de solucions que permeten complir els requisits de seguretat contra incendis sense comprometre el patrimoni existent. / [EN] Historic buildings hold significant architectural and cultural value and are a precious asset of our civilisation. It is therefore not surprising that great efforts are being made to preserve them. However, despite advances in research, fire remains a major threat to achieve the conservation of the built heritage. In addition, current fire codes generally do not provide specific guidelines or methods that address the unique characteristics of historic buildings. Consequently, bringing these buildings into compliance with fire safety regulations while avoiding heritage loss is a great challenge. In this context, the present doctoral thesis focuses on the analysis of the fire resistance of timber jack arch flooring systems, which can be found in many historic buildings around the world, using deterministic and probabilistic performance-based approaches. Furthermore, the thesis proposes probabilistic models to characterise the physical and mechanical properties of contemporary and historic timber at ambient and elevated temperatures, which are then adopted in such probabilistic approaches. Due to the singular geometry and structural configuration of these historic flooring systems, the methods established by current fire codes to verify their fire resistance are not applicable. Thus, a new methodology based on the "Reduced cross-section method" of the current EN 1995-1-2 is proposed. Then, the methodology is applied to a wide number of flooring systems covering different span lengths, timber bending strengths, and fire exposures to evaluate the influence of these parameters on the fire resistance. Subsequently, due to the considerable number of input parameters with high uncertainty that influence the fire resistance of timber jack arch flooring systems, a probabilistic approach is adopted. The analysis assumes different cross-sections, span lengths and geometries of the compartment where the fire occurs. Moreover, uncertainty in the applied permanent and live loads, as well as in the physical and mechanical properties of timber at ambient and elevated temperatures, is considered. Thus, based on a large number of numerical simulations, fire fragility functions are developed and the reliability indices of the historic flooring systems against fire are derived. The results of the fire resistance analyses show that, although probabilistic approaches can help to preserve significantly more historic timber jack arch flooring systems, many of them may not meet the fire resistance requirements set by current codes, which is a cause for concern. Conducting these analyses is therefore essential to ensure their fire resistance and take action where necessary. In summary, this doctoral thesis aims to promote the rational conservation of historic timber structures and, consequently, of the built heritage. Moreover, it is envisaged that the proposed deterministic and probabilistic models will also enable the design of more reliable and efficient timber structures. Thus, by fostering rehabilitation over demolition and new construction and by encouraging the use of timber in new structures, a more sustainable construction can also be achieved. Finally, the present doctoral thesis is expected to raise awareness of the high vulnerability of historic buildings to fire and, ultimately, encourage future research aimed at finding solutions that allow fire safety requirements to be met without compromising the existing heritage. / García Castillo, E. (2024). Analysis of the fire resistance of traditional timber flooring systems in historic buildings [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/207365