Volcanic eruptions are powerful, uncontrollable natural events which produce a number of hazards that can impact upon all aspects of society, including critical infrastructure. The most widespread and disruptive of these hazards is volcanic ashfall. Direct ashfall impacts, even minor, can cause multiple knock on effects throughout all critical infrastructure sectors leading to disruption of these services, on which society relies. However with appropriate volcanic risk management strategies, these impacts can be lessened. Electronic equipment, including laptop computers, are a common and vital component in all critical infrastructure sectors, field based volcanic research and wider society. Therefore, it is important to understand how laptops will function in volcanic environments. This thesis assesses the vulnerability of laptop computers to volcanic ash and gas hazards through field and laboratory based experimentation and the development of quantitative risk assessments metrics. Laboratory based ash vulnerability experiments were carried out in the Volcanic Ash Testing Facility, University of Canterbury, using a mass produced basalt ‘pseudo ash’, which is physically and chemically analogous to fresh volcanic ash. Each laptop was exposed to ash for 100 160 hours at fall rates of ~500 g/m² h. None of the ten laptops used sustained any permanent damage from volcanic ash, however, three shutdown temporarily due to overheating. This was because laptops only contain a few small ventilation holes which prevent large quantities of ash from entering the laptops. However, ash contamination reduced functionality of keyboards, CD drives and some cooling fans as these are open to the environment or located close to ventilation holes. Wet ash, known to cause short circuits of electrical equipment, was not able to enter the laptops because it is less mobile than dry ash. Functionality was retained with the use of simple mitigation techniques such as placing laptops inside heavy duty polyethylene bags. Volcanic gas vulnerability experiments were undertaken at White Island, New Zealand. Three laptops were exposed to high concentrations of volcanic gases for ~5 hours. None however, sustained any permanent damage, due to the limited quantity of gas that could enter the laptop, although metal components on the outside of the laptop sustained minor corrosion.

Campi Flegrei is a large volcanic complex located west of the city of Naples, Italy. The area has been the site of volcanic activity for more than 60 ka and represents a potential volcanic hazard owing to the large local population. In this study, the geochemistry of the magma associated with two different eruptions at Campi Flegrei has been characterized, with the aim to identify geochemical trends that may help to predict the style and nature of future eruptions. Two eruptions of different age and eruptive style have been selected for study, Fondo Riccio (9.5 ka) and Minopoli 1 (11.1 ka). A scoria (CF-FR-C1) and a bomb (CF-FR-C2) were collected from the Fondo Riccio eruption, and two scoria samples were collected from Minopoli 1 (CF-Mi1-C1 and C2) eruption. The pre-eruptive volatile content of magma plays an important role in the style of eruption and can be assessed from studies of melt inclusions (MI) contained in phenocrysts. Major and trace elements in Fondo Riccio MI show a wider variation compared to those in Minopoli 1 MI suggesting that the Fondo Riccio magma residence time was longer compared to the Minopoli 1 magma. Analyses of volatile contents in MI suggest that Fondo Riccio magma may have been more water-rich than Minopoli 1 magma, consistent with the more explosive character of this eruption compared to Minopoli 1. Trace element data suggest a combination of arc volcanic and upper continental crust magma as the source for the Fondo Riccio and Minopoli 1 eruptions. / Master of Science

With an increase in the number of people living in proximity to active volcanic centres worldwide, there is a greater need to provide effective and engaging education and outreach programmes to reduce vulnerability and prepare exposed communities for potential future volcanic eruptions. The finalisation of the Sendai Framework (UNISDR, 2015a) has also cemented the need for disaster risk managers to engage at-risk communities with education and outreach programmes, to reduce the number of deaths and injuries caused by volcanic eruptions worldwide. Education and outreach programmes are already commonplace for disaster risk reduction, with many taking the form of traditional presentations, maps, diagrams, TV and radio broadcasts. In recent years, there has been a shift towards the use of more creative media to communicate volcanic hazards and engage populations in outreach activities. These have included films, comic strips, puppet shows, board games and video games. However, to-date there is little empirical evidence for the use of these media with at-risk communities. This research seeks to address this issue by providing evidence for the effective use of creative media for volcanic hazard education by adopting the use of video games (or serious games). To assess how effective serious games could be as an education tool, a bespoke video game (St. Vincent’s Volcano) was developed collaborative with disaster risk agencies and communities on the Eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent and then trialled with adults and students from across the island. A range of outreach sessions were adopted to compare and contrast the applications of the game and to identify the most effective method of its delivery. These sessions included a traditional outreach presentation used as a control, and a group of UK students for a cohort comparison. Data were collected through a mixed-methods approach. Overall the results of the study demonstrate how successful the game can be as an education tool, promoting knowledge improvement in players. The results also demonstrate how the role of the outreach instructor is important to encourage engagement and can result in higher levels of overall positive engagement exhibited by the students. The game was also successful at promoting knowledge gain and engagement with adult participants. The results also demonstrated promise for games in promoting longer-term knowledge retention and for improving awareness of existing outreach materials. This research provides a foundation for the increased integration of emerging technologies within traditional education sessions. The work also shares some of the challenges and lessons learnt throughout the development and testing processes and provides recommendations for researchers looking to pursue a similar study or to adopt the use of serious games.

The purpose of this research is to better understand how residents of communities located on the flanks of Kilauea, Hawai'i view the hazards associated with volcanic events taking into account hazard proximity, cultural beliefs, municipal trust, and evacuation planning. The study was conducted in the lower Puna district, an area with a rapidly growing population but limited infrastructure. Data were collected though a questionnaire survey undertaken at venues throughout the district, including grocery markets, bakeries, farmers markets, the public pool, and other gathering places. Overall, the results indicated that people understand the natural hazards of the place but are generally not concerned about the potential impacts of these hazards on their livelihoods; few could determine whether or not they lived in a lava zone, the impacts on health, and the need for evacuation planning. Cultural considerations appear to play major role and many residents believe that Madam Pele, Goddess of Fire, has a stake in the events of Kilauea. Both hazard understanding and cultural belief systems varied by gender, age, income, and education. When compared to findings from earlier studies within the lower Puna district, it was noted that opinions have shifted over time and that belief in Pele had strengthened. This study demonstrated that understanding the opinions and patterns of belief within communities must be ongoing and municipal planning must be altered over time to accommodate evolving needs and beliefs of a community to obtain optimum community support.

Volcanic eruptions produce a range of concurrent, sequential and recurrent hazards which can impact society and critical infrastructure. For daily activities, modern societies are reliant on dependable functioning critical infrastructure, such as electrical supply; water supply; wastewater; transportation; communication networks; buildings; air conditioning and ventilation systems; and electronic equipment. In addition, during volcanic eruptions these sectors are vital for effective emergency response and recovery. Despite the importance of critical infrastructure, the systematic quantification of their vulnerability to volcanic hazards, a key aspect of volcanic risk management, has received little research attention. Successful volcanic risk management and disaster risk reduction are cost effective investments in preventing future losses during eruptions and increasing resilience to volcanic hazard impacts. Effective volcanic risk management requires the characterisation of both hazards and vulnerabilities to the same level of detail. This thesis develops a methodological framework to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure sectors to volcanic hazard impacts. The focus is on fragility and vulnerability functions which provide quantitative relationships between impact (damage and disruption) and volcanic hazard intensity. The framework details how post-eruption infrastructure impact data, compiled in a newly established infrastructure impacts database, can be classified by hazard and impact intensity to derive vulnerability and fragility functions. Using the vulnerability framework, fragility functions for several critical infrastructure sectors for volcanic tephra fall impacts are derived. These functions are the first attempt to quantify the vulnerability of critical infrastructure sectors using a systematic approach. Using these fragility functions, risk is estimated for the electrical transmission network in the North Island of New Zealand using a newly developed probabilistic tephra fall hazard assessment. This thesis and framework provide a pathway forward for volcanic risk scientists to advance volcanic vulnerability assessments such that comprehensive and robust quantitative volcanic risk assessments are commonplace in infrastructure management practices. Improved volcanic vulnerability and risk assessments leads to enhanced risk-based decision making, prioritisation of risk reduction investment and overall reduction in volcanic risk.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第15001号 / 工博第3175号 / 新制||工||1477(附属図書館) / 27451 / UT51-2009-R725 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 岡田 憲夫, 教授 小林 潔司, 教授 多々納 裕一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

This thesis presents a new GIS-based scenario volcanic risk assessment model called RiskScape Volcano (RSV) that has been designed for the RiskScape program to advance the field of volcanic risk assessment. RiskScape is a natural hazards risk assessment software tool being developed in New Zealand by GNS Science and NIWA. When integrated into RiskScape, RSV will add proximal volcanic hazard risk assessment capability, and enhanced inventory design; it presently operates outside of RiskScape by combining volcanic hazard models’ output spatial hazard intensity (hazard maps) with inventory databases (asset maps) in GIS software to determine hazard exposure, which is then combined with fragility functions (relationships between hazard intensity and expected damage ratios) to estimate risk. This thesis consists of seven publications, each of which comprises a part of the development and testing of RSV: 1) results of field investigation of impacts to agriculture and infrastructure of the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Indonesia; 2) agricultural fragility functions for tephra damage in New Zealand based on the observations made at Merapi; 3) examination of wind patterns above the central North Island, New Zealand for better modeling of tephra dispersal with the ASHFALL model; 4) a description of the design, components, background, and an example application of the RSV model; 5) test of RSV via a risk assessment of population, agriculture, and infrastructure in the Rotorua District from a rhyolite eruption at the Okataina Volcanic Centre; 6) test of RSV via a comparison of risk to critical infrastructure in Mammoth Lakes, California from an eruption at Mammoth Mountain volcano versus an eruption from the Inyo craters; and 7) a survey of volcanic hazard awareness in the tourism sector in Mammoth Lakes. Tests of the model have demonstrated that it is capable of providing valid and useful risk assessments that can be used by local government and emergency management to prioritise eruption response planning and risk mitigation efforts. RSV has provided the RiskScape design team with a more complete quantitative volcanic risk assessment model that can be integrated into RiskScape and used in New Zealand and potentially overseas.

This thesis presents a new GIS-based scenario volcanic risk assessment model called RiskScape Volcano (RSV) that has been designed for the RiskScape program to advance the field of volcanic risk assessment. RiskScape is a natural hazards risk assessment software tool being developed in New Zealand by GNS Science and NIWA. When integrated into RiskScape, RSV will add proximal volcanic hazard risk assessment capability, and enhanced inventory design; it presently operates outside of RiskScape by combining volcanic hazard models’ output spatial hazard intensity (hazard maps) with inventory databases (asset maps) in GIS software to determine hazard exposure, which is then combined with fragility functions (relationships between hazard intensity and expected damage ratios) to estimate risk. This thesis consists of seven publications, each of which comprises a part of the development and testing of RSV: 1) results of field investigation of impacts to agriculture and infrastructure of the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Indonesia; 2) agricultural fragility functions for tephra damage in New Zealand based on the observations made at Merapi; 3) examination of wind patterns above the central North Island, New Zealand for better modeling of tephra dispersal with the ASHFALL model; 4) a description of the design, components, background, and an example application of the RSV model; 5) test of RSV via a risk assessment of population, agriculture, and infrastructure in the Rotorua District from a rhyolite eruption at the Okataina Volcanic Centre; 6) test of RSV via a comparison of risk to critical infrastructure in Mammoth Lakes, California from an eruption at Mammoth Mountain volcano versus an eruption from the Inyo craters; and 7) a survey of volcanic hazard awareness in the tourism sector in Mammoth Lakes. Tests of the model have demonstrated that it is capable of providing valid and useful risk assessments that can be used by local government and emergency management to prioritise eruption response planning and risk mitigation efforts. RSV has provided the RiskScape design team with a more complete quantitative volcanic risk assessment model that can be integrated into RiskScape and used in New Zealand and potentially overseas.

La réduction du risque volcanique dans les départements ultramarins français s’inscrit dans une réflexion plus globale de gestion visant la caractérisation des enjeux et la diminution de leur vulnérabilité. Les îles de la Guadeloupe, la Martinique et la Réunion sont exposées à une multitude de risques naturels de par leur situation géographique et leur caractère insulaire. S’appuyant sur une approche comparative, aussi bien spatiale que temporelle, cette thèse de géographie propose une analyse des rapports des hommes à leur territoire marqué par la présence d’une menace latente : le volcanisme. Dans cette perspective, le risque est appréhendé, non comme un élément extérieur, mais comme un processus de construction sociale. A partir des scénarios éruptifs envisagés par les experts, ce diagnostic évalue, en amont de toute crise, les connaissances, les représentations et les comportements annoncés des populations exposées au risque. Il envisage les déterminants influents, tels le type de volcanisme, l’histoire éruptive ou l’identité des sociétéscréoles. Recenser les distorsions et cerner les réponses inadaptées permet d’envisager des outils d’information préventive plus efficients. Dans la lignée de travaux s’attachant à des thématiques similaires, cette recherche met en exergue la dimension de la composante humaine au coeur de la gestion des risques qu’on a qualifié un peu trop rapidement de "naturels". Au final, nous pointons les atouts à renforcer, les méconnaissances ou croyances à rectifier et les caractéristiques immuables des sociétés créoles, à prendre en compte pour une gestion de crise volcanique optimisée dans le futur. / Reduction of volcanic risk en the French overseas departments is part of a more global management issues for the evaluation and reduction of their vulnerability. Indeed, the islands of Guadeloupe, Martinique and Reunion are exposed to a multitude of natural hazards due to their geographical location and insular character. This thesis provides an analysis of how humans relate to their environment. It is based on a comparative approach, both spatial and temporal, given thepresence of a latent threat: volcanism. In this perspective, the risk is understood, not as an external element, but as a socially constructed process. Experts are developing scenarios to see how exposed populations may react to volcanic eruptions, asking what the local knowledges, representations, and possible behaviors are - considering key factors, such as the type of eruption, volcanic history, and the identity of Creole societies. Finally, this study, in line with work focusing on similar themes, highlights the human dimension in risk management. It takes into account the strengths and weaknesses, including the unique characteristics of Creole societies, necessary for optimal management of volcanic crisis in the future.

La gestion des crises volcaniques constitue un sujet d'étude marginal, tous les domaines de recherche confondus. La complexité des phénomènes volcaniques (aléas multiples, incertitudes des prévisions), l'absence de cadre conceptuel et méthodologique établi pour l'étude des crises, les opportunités réduites de vivre des crises volcaniques, et la focalisation des chercheurs en sciences de la Terre sur l'aléa sont autant de raisons qui expliquent ce manque d'engagement. Cette thèse a pour objectif de combler partiellement ces lacunes en capitalisant des analyses sur les modes de gestion des crises. Elle propose ainsi des RETours d'Expérience sur la gestion de crises éruptives survenues en mai 2006 au Karthala (Grande Comore), et en avril 2007 au Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion). S'y ajoute un RETEX sur la gestion des lahars consécutifs aux éruptions explosives de 2005 en Grande Comore. Ces cas d'étude reposent sur le vécu direct des crises analysées, puis sur un travail d'enquête auprès des autorités, scientifiques, médias et populations. Ils mettent entre autres en évidence un manque caractérisé de moyens, d'information et de formation de l'ensemble des acteurs sur les deux îles. Les causes profondes des facteurs de dysfonctionnement sont ensuite recherchées. L'analyse révèle le poids des composantes humaines, culturelles, politiques, socioéconomiques et territoriales dans les réponses apportées face aux crises. Enfin, cette thèse propose des outils et des approches pour améliorer la gestion des crises sur les deux îles. / Volcanic crisis management is a marginal study subject, whatever the research field. The complex nature of volcanic phenomena (multiple hazards, uncertainty of forecast), the lack of conceptual and methodological frameworks to study such crises, the reduced opportunities of experiencing volcanic crises, and the fact that Earth scientists focus on the hazard are all the reasons behind this lack of commitment. The objective of this thesis is to make up for some of these shortcomings by building up information on ways to manage crises. It provides post-crisis analysis about the management of the eruptive crisis of May 2006 at Karthala volcano (Grande Comore), and of April 2007 at the Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion island). It also contains another analysis about the management of lahars subsequent to the explosive eruptions in 2005 in Grande Comore. These study case on personal experiences of analysed crises, then on investigations undertaken with local authorities, scientist, media and population. They highlight, amongst other things, a blatant lack of resources, information and training of all agents on both islands. The cause for such dysfunctioning factors are looked into. The analysis reveals the importance of human, cultural, political, socioeconomic, and territorial components in responding to crises. Finally, this thesis suggests tools and approaches to improve crisis management on both islands.