The thesis focuses on theoretical and empirical analysis of oil and natural gas flows in Eurasia and maps Ukraine's transit position in the regional oil and gas supply chain. The aim of the thesis is to objectively evaluate possibilities of Eurasian energy integration by enlargement of the European energy market further to the East and to prospect Ukraine's involvement into a new geopolitical energy alliance, driven by EU. This dissertation builds up on economical, geographical, historical and political premises of markets integration as well as system approach of energy alliances development. It argues that (i) energy integration on contrary to traditional economic stream can be explained by system approach and geopolitical stream of energy expansionism; (ii) EU infrustructural oil and gas projects imply deeper integration of EU member-states with involed non-members and (iii) Ukraine's oil and gas transit status within Eurasian region facilitates its growing involvement into EU energy intiatives guided by the European rules. The thesis is organized into three chapters. The first one is predominately theoretical and seeks to summarize current theoretical approaches towards integration and trends of energy markets in Eurasia. The second chapter introduces the role of oil and gas transport capacities and Ukraine's transit status in resolving disparities of Eurasian energy supply chain. The third chapter describes condition of Ukrainian oil and gas infrastructure and tackles issues for reformation of national oil and gas transit pipelines. Securing access to energy supplies has been a driving factor of global development since the industrial revolution. Increasing demand for oil and gas has undermined energy and economic security of world centers. In Eurasia Europe and Asia has been competing for fossil fuels originating from Russia, Middle East and Central Asia. Since recently Eurasian energy security problem is being solved by development of new supply routes. These infrastructural projects are initiated by oil and gas consumers, suppliers and transitors competing over control in the infrastructure. Such competition destabilises Eurasian relations, leads to energy "wars", political conflicts and increases supplies disruption risks. To secure stability of energy supply chain producers, transitors and consumers of oil and gas resources should integrate, closely cooperate and jointly invest into improving the existing supply routes and efficiency of fuels consumtion, production and transportation. Oil and gas should be traded for technologies and capital securing control in the infrustucture of mutual interests. Development of further bilateral and multilateral tools of joint interest would also help in resolving energy related contradictions of the participating parties. The leading role in driving energy integration in Eurasia belongs to the EU being the most mature and advanced integration grouping in Eurasia. EU realises TEN-e projects and from recently a common foreign energy policy aimed to strengthen external cooperation with oil and gas suppliers and transitors, including Ukraine. Since 1970s Ukraine has been an important oil and gas transitor for Russian and Central Asian oil and gas to Europe. Ukrainian pipelines intermediate 10 % of oil and 50 % of gas imports of Europe. To counterbalance Russian energy diplomacy over Ukraine, EU is supporting Ukraine's efforts in such energy alliances as INOGATE or GUAM. Ukraine's recent accession to the South Eastern-European Energy Community should improve stability of gas and oil supplies to Europe and facilitate reformation of national transit capacities.

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Diese Arbeit liefert, in den ersten beiden Kapiteln einen allgemeinen Überblick über die klassischen Ansätze zur Optimierung unter Unsicherheit mit einem Schwerpunkt auf probabilistischen Randbedingung. Anschließend wird im dritten Kapitel eine neue Klasse von sogenannten Probust Randbedingungen beim Auftreten von Modellen mit unsicheren Parametern mit teilweise stochastischem und teilweise nicht-stochastischem Charakter eingeführt. Wir zeigen dabei die Relevanz dieser Aufgabentypen für zwei Problemstellungen in einem stationären Gasnetz auf. Erstens liegen beim Gastransport probabilistische Randbedingungen bezüglich der Gasnachfrage vor sowie auch robuste Randbedin- gungen bezüglich der Rauheitskoeffizienten in den Rohren, welche in der Regel unbekannt sind, da es keine zuverlässigen Messmöglichkeiten gibt. Zweitens lösen wir ein Problem für einen Netzbetreiber, der zum Ziel hat, die angebotene Kapazität für alte und neue Kunden zu maximieren. In diesem Fall ist man mit einer ungewis- sen Gesamtnachfrage konfrontiert, die sich aus der probabilistischen Nachfrage für Altkunden und der robusten Nachfrage für Neukunden zusammensetzt. Für beide Fälle zeigen wir, wie mit probusten Randbedingungen im Rahmen der sogenannten sphärisch-radialen Zerlegung multivariater Gauß-Verteilungen umgegangen werden kann. Starke und schwache Halbstetigkeitsergebnisse werden für den allgemeinen Fall, in Abhängigkeit davon ob Strategien in Lebesgue oder Sobolev Räumen angenommen werden, erstellt. Für ein ein- faches zweistufiges Modell werden überprüfbare Bedingungen für die Lipschitz- Stetigkeit und die Differenzierbarkeit dieser Wahrscheinlichkeitsfunktion abgeleitet und mit expliziten Ableitungsformeln unterstützt. Diese Werkzeuge werden dann verwendet, um das Problem des Bäckers und zwei Probleme des Wasserkraftmanagements zu lösen. / This thesis offers, in the first and second chapter, a general overview of the classical approaches to solving optimization under uncertainty, with a focus on probabilistic constraints. Then, in the third chapter, a new class of so-called Probust constraints is introduced in the presence of models with uncertain parameters having partially stochastic and partially non-stochastic character. We show the relevance of this class of approach and solve two problems in a stationary gas network. First, in the context of gas transportation, one ends up with a constraint, which is probabilistic with respect to the load of gas and robust with respect to the roughness coefficients of the pipes (which are uncertain due to a lack of attainable measurements). Secondly, we solve a problem for a network operator, who would like to maximize the offered capacity for old and new customers. In this case, one is faced with an uncertain total demand which is probabilistic for old clients and robust for new clients. In both problems, we demonstrate how probust constraints can be dealt within the framework of the so-called spheric-radial decomposition of multivariate Gaussian distributions. Furthermore, in chapter four, we present novel structural and numerical results for optimization problems under a dynamic joint probabilistic constraint. Strong and weak semicontinuity results are obtained for the general case depending on whether policies are supposed to be in Lebesgue or Sobolev spaces. For a simple two-stage model, verifiable conditions for Lipschitz continuity and differentiability of this probability function are derived and endowed with explicit derivative formulae. These tools are then used to solve the Baker's problem and two hydro-power management problems.

L’analyse du droit applicable aux relations sur l’approvisionnement du gaz russe dans l’UE a démontré l’impuissance du droit international de l’énergie, ainsi que les insuffisances du droit local russe et de celui des pays de l’UE et de l’UE. La solution globale à tous les problèmes pourrait être la fourniture de garanties favorisant les opérations d’achat-vente de gaz entre Gazprom et les entreprises des pays de l’UE et le développement des relations de la participation directe des entreprises russes et de l’UE sur les marchés. Les bases de la réglementation de ces relations pourront être fixées dans le nouvel Accord international entre la Russie et l’UE et dans la législation locale. / The current legal rules restrain the development of both frameworks now existing – that is, long-term contracts and opened-up markets. The solution to this problem could be the maintain of the first group of relations and the development of the second group. Therefore, it is important to suggest an alternative framework. The basis of such alternative framework could be fixed in an international treaty between Russia, EU and the member-states. This new regulation will also require the adjustment of the local legislation.