Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Current efforts to address Zimbabwe‘s decade long veld fire crisis has partly been hindered by a lack of financial resources and fire data. This study illustrates the potential of using the MODIS burned area product as an alternative cost- and time-effective method for reconstructing historical fire records in Zimbabwe. Two MODIS burned area products were evaluated, namely the MCD45A1 and WAMIS (Meraka Institute‘s MODIS burned area product). Both products yielded similar levels of accuracy despite the difference in algorithms. However, it is assumed that at certain thresholds, either in tree cover or fire intensity, WAMIS ceases to map fires as accurately as the MCD45A1. Ten years of fire data for Charara Safari Area (CSA) was extracted from the MCD45A1, and used as a basis to establish six parameters: fire incidence, extent, seasonality, fire size, frequency and fire return interval (FRI). It was observed that approximately 50% of CSA burned annually, with an average of 132 fires occurring every year. Although there was no overall increase or decrease in the extent of area burned over the 10 year study period, an increasing trend in fire incidence was noted. Through an assessment of effective fire size, it was established that more fires in CSA were gradually becoming smaller in size, while the extent of area burned remained fairly constant. Hence, the increase in fire incidences and lack of a corresponding increase in area burned. This study was also used to identify areas in the fire regime that may be a potential ecological risk to the miombo woodland in CSA. Three points of concern were revealed: firstly, a high prevalence of late season fires was observed in the northern bounds of CSA. Secondly, 64.2% of the total area burned in CSA burned between 6 and 10 times over the 10 year period, and lastly, 85% of the total area burned over the period 2001 and 2010 had a FRI of less than 2 years. The combination of late season fires, high fire frequency and short FRI in CSA is indicative of possible alterations in the state of the miombo woodlands, which may have negative socio-economic implications on CSA and its surrounding communities. This study has demonstrated that the MCD45A1 is a useful source of much needed fire information for Zimbabwe. Therefore, the possibility of integrating methods employed in this study into the current collection of fire data should be given due consideration. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Huidige pogings om Zimbabwe se dekade lank veldbrand krisis aan te spreek is gedeeltelik belemmer deur 'n gebrek aan finansiële hulpbronne en vuurdata. Hierdie studie illustreer die potensiaal van die gebruik van die MODIS verbrande area produk as 'n alternatiewe koste-en tyd-effektiewe metode vir die rekonstruksie van historiese vuurrekords in Zimbabwe. Twee MODIS verbrande area produkte is geëvalueer, naamlik die MCD45A1 en WAMIS (Meraka Instituut se MODIS verbrand area produk). Beide produkte het soortgelyke vlakke van akkuraatheid opgelewer ten spyte van die verskil in die algoritmes. Dit word egter aanvaar dat op sekere drempels, óf in die boom bedekking, of brandintensiteit, WAMIS brande minder akkuraat karteer as die MCD45A1 produk. Tien jaar van vuurdata vir Charara Safari Area (CSA) is uit die MCD45A1 data onttrek, en gebruik as 'n basis om ses parameters vas te stel: vuurvoorkoms, omvang, seisoenaliteit, vuurgrootte, frekwensie en tyd tussen die terugkeer van vuur na ‗n spesifieke plek (nl. FRI). Dit is waargeneem dat ongeveer 50% van die CSA jaarliks gebrand word, met 'n gemiddeld van 132 brande wat elke jaar voorkom. Daar was nie 'n algehele toename of afname in die omvang van die totale verbrande area oor die 10 jaar studietydperk nie. Maar 'n toenemende neiging in die vuurvoorkoms was wel opgemerk. Deur middel van 'n assessering van effektiewe vuurgrootte, is daar vasgestel dat meer kleiner brande in CSA voorkom, terwyl die omvang van die verbrand area redelik konstant gebly het. Dus was daar ‗n toename in die aantal vuurvoorvalle al was daar nie 'n ooreenstemmende toename in die totale verbrande oppervlakte was nie. Hierdie studie is ook gebruik om gebiede in die vuurregime te identifiseer wat 'n potensiële ekologiese risiko vir die miombobosveld in CSA inhou. Drie punte van kommer word geopenbaar: eerstens, 'n hoë voorkoms van laatseisoen brande is waargeneem in die noordelike grense van CSA. Tweedens, 64,2% van die totale verbrande oppervlakte in die CSA brand tussen 6 en 10 keer bine die 10-jaar periode. Laastens, 85% van die totale verbrande oppervlakte oor die tydperk 2001 tot 2010 het 'n FRI van minder as twee jaar. Die kombinasie van laatseisoen brande, hoë vuurfrekwensie en kort FRI in CSA is 'n aanduiding van moontlike veranderinge in die toestand van die miomboveld, wat negatiewe sosio-ekonomiese implikasies op die CSA en die omliggende gemeenskappe kan uitoefen. Hierdie studie het getoon dat die MCD45A1 'n nuttige bron van broodnodige vuur inligting vir Zimbabwe is. Daarom, moet die moontlikheid van die integrasie van die metodes wat gebruik word in hierdie studie in die huidige versameling van vuurdata behoorlike oorweging gegee word.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The aim of the study was to determine the application of green building practices in Stellenbosch. In order to achieve this aim certain objectives had to be met. The first objective was to retrieve national and international literature on green building initiatives. Six main sections were discussed in the literature namely, climate change and the environment, the built environment, the concept of sustainability in cities and buildings, green building designs and practices, green buildings, green building councils and the different green rating systems, with a specific focus on the Green Star SA rating tool. The second objective was to discuss three case scenarios in Stellenbosch that practice green initiatives. The case scenarios selected are Distell Group Limited, Spier wine estate and the new Remgro head office Millenia park. Buildings in Stellenbosch selected by means of probability sampling. A total of 35% of all commercially zoned buildings in the Stellenbosch core were selected to participate in the sample. The land zoning maps from the Stellenbosch municipality was obtained and relevant buildings were sampled. Nine of the sampled buildings were heritage buildings (older than sixty years) and seventeen were buildings from the modernist era (younger than sixty years). Nine architect companies in Stellenbosch were also sampled. The respondents were determined by means of haphazard sampling. The third objective was to design two questionnaires, one for building owners and another for architects. The first questionnaire developed for building owners was divided into two sections. The first section determined what green practices owners are incorporating into their office buildings. These green practices developed in the questionnaire focused on the use of natural light in the buildings, LED lights, indoor ventilation, recycling methods, water saving methods, energy saving methods and whether management plans exist to monitor and evaluate the buildings energy usage. The second section focused on the perception of the building owners. The respondents had to rate the importance of the above mentioned green initiatives on a scale of one 1 (being not at all) to 5 (being very important). The fourth objective was to develop a questionnaire for architects. The questionnaire determined whether green designs are incorporated by architects and if there is a greater demand for green designs by clients. The findings of the study revealed that respondents find natural light and air quality to be the most important aspects in an office. Recycling is applied by 93% of respondents. Less than 10% of respondents have installed solar panels, HAVC systems, rain water harvesting or other water management systems. Architects find that there has been an increase in the demand for green designs, but that there is a lack of knowledge of green initiatives by building practitioners. The main recommendations of the study are that the concept of green development be broadened into other spheres apart from planners. Education and training of green building must be available to all building owners and practitioners. Sustainable materials should be more accessible to building practitioners and these materials should be made available locally. Finally more buildings should be refurbished or renovated rather than be demolished to prevent waste and secure open spaces. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van die studie was om die toepassing van groen initiatiewe in Stellenbosch te bepaal. Ten einde hierdie doel te bereik moes daar aan sekere doelwitte voldoen word. Die eerste doelwit was om nasionale en internasionale literatuur oor groen inisiatiewe te verkry. Ses hoof afdelings is bespreek in die literatuur, naamlik verandering van die klimaat en die omgewing, die Beboude-omgewing, die konsep van volhoubaarheid in stede en geboue, groen gebou ontwerp en praktyke, die rade vir omgewings vriendelike geboue en groen evalueering stelsels. Die tweede doelwit was om drie gevalle studies is Stellenbosch te bespreek wat groen inisiatiewe beoefen. Die gevalle studies wat bespreek word is Distell Eiendoms Beperk, Spier landgoedere en Remgro se nuwe hoof gebou Millenia Park. Waarskynlikheids steekproewe is gebruik om die geboue te identifiseer vir die veld werk, ʼn totaal van 35% van al die kommersiëele gesoneerde geboue in die Stellenbosch-kern is geselekteer om deel te neem in die steekproef. Die landsoneringskaarte van die Stellenbosch-munisipaliteit is verkry en betrokke geboue was geselekteer. Nege van die geselekteerde geboue was historiese geboue (ouer as sestig jaar) en sewentien was geboue van die modernistiese era (jonger as sestig jaar). Nege argiteks maatskappye in Stellenbosch is ook geselekteer vir die studie. Die respondente is deur middel van’n lukrake steekproef bepaal. Die derde doelwit was om twee vraelyste te ontwerp, een vir die eienaars van die geboue en die ander vir argitekte. Die eerste vraelys wat ontwikkel is vir die gebou-eienaars is verdeel in twee afdelings. Die eerste afdeling bepaal watter groen praktyke eienaars implimenteer in hul kantoor geboue. Die groen praktyke in die vraelys fokus op die gebruik van natuurlike lig in die geboue, LED ligte, binnenshuis ventilasie, herwinning, water besparing metodes, energie besparing metodes en bestuur planne wat opgetrek is om die energie verbruik van geboue te monitor en te evalueer. Die tweede afdeling van die vraelys fokus op die persepsie van die gebou-eienaars. Die respondente het die belangrikheid van die bogenoemde groen inisiatiewe gradeer op 'n skaal van een 1 (glad nie) tot 5 (baie belangrik). Die vierde doelwit was om 'n vraelys te ontwikkel vir argitekte. Die vraelys bepaal of groen ontwerp op geneem is deur argitekte en indien daar 'n groter aanvraag na groen ontwerpe deur kliënte is. Die bevindings van die studie het getoon dat die respondente natuurlike lig en die gehalte van binnenshuis lug as die belangrikste aspekte in di kantoor ag. Herwinning is deur 93% van respondente toegepas. Minder as 10% van die respondente het sonpanele, HAVC stelsels, reën wateropvangsisteme of ander watersparingssisteme geinstaleer. Argitekte vind dat daar 'n toename in die vraag na groen ontwerpe is, maar dat daar 'n gebrek aan kennis oor groeninisiatiewe is deur prakisynes . Die aanbevelings van die studie is dat die konsep van groen ontwikkeling versprei moet word na ander sfere behalwe beplanners. Inligting en opleiding oor omgewingsvriendelike geboue moet beskikbaar wees aan alle gebou-eienaars en praktisynes. Volhoubare materiale moet meer toeganklik wees vir bou praktisynes en hierdie materiale moet ook plaaslik beskikbaar gestel word. Laastens moet meer geboue opgeknap word eerder as om gesloop te word, om afval te voorkom en oop ruimtes te behou.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The succulent thicket plant community of South Africa, particularly Portulacaria afra (in this study referred to as spekboom), occurring in the Thicket Biome, sequestrates an exceptional amount of carbon dioxide (due to its photosynthetic properties), particularly for a warm, semi-arid region and in this capacity is more akin to forest ecosystems. Spekboom has additional favourable characteristics over forested systems regarding carbon trading (CT), namely: economic water use; potential for combating desertification and poverty in arid environments; and ability to withstand stand-replacing fire (spekboom doesn’t burn) which improves its attraction as a commodity in CT and the payments for ecosystem services (PES) industry. Landowners interested in using the capacity of their land for carbon sequestration (CS) are challenged to calculate their plant communities’ sequestration ability and biodiversity potential and therefore to quantify the carbon credits to be sold. The aim of the study was to quantify the CS ability of a selected property unit by vegetation area and to establish the carbon credits value that can be sold in the carbon market. It commenced by highlighting the problem of global warming and its effect on climate change in South Africa. CS is described as a process and a solution to decrease high and rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and its use in the carbon market to attain a monetary value to promote the growing of vegetation or to protect and conserve biodiversity that will enhance carbon stocks. The study site is Bosch Luys Kloof Private Nature Reserve (BLK PNR) in the semi-arid Karoo. Because CS potential is known to follow a rainfall gradient, one expects the semi-arid Karoo to have a low CS potential. However, this area contains spekboom, an extraordinary thicket type that sequestrates carbon at similar rates to forest ecosystems and should therefore reap the benefits of CT. Yet, accurate mapping of this vegetation is critical for accurate carbon stocks assessment. The CS potential of all vegetation communities in the study area had to be established to estimate the carbon stocks in the whole property unit. ArcGIS was used to map the vegetation communities (sub biomes) and eCognition to refine mapping of the Gamka Thicket (containing spekboom) through an object-orientated approach to automated vegetation mapping. For accuracy assessment a heads-up digitized map was created for comparison. The true surface area was calculated for the vegetation classification to ensure accurate area accounting on the mountainous terrain and this calculated area of the mapped vegetation was used to convert area to carbon sequestration potential. By examining the different markets and trading mechanisms for trading in the carbon market, using CS, a marketing strategy for the land units was advised. Results show that due to BLK PNR's history of overstocking, spekboom remains degraded on the study site. This creates an opportunity to restore the vegetation with funding through CT. The sequestration potential of spekboom on BLK PNR was determined through a regional differentiation comparison. The regional differentiation comparison identified that rainfall amount and carbon accumulation are inversely proportional, therefore more arid conditions (<200mm a year, or a dry season longer than seven and a half months) cause spekboom to switch to Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) due to water stress, so increasing the rate of carbon accumulation. In wetter environments, where spekboom is not under water stress, it continues in carbon fixation of 3-phosphoglycerate (C3) having a lower carbon accumulation. This is a remarkable finding as CS is known to follow a rainfall gradient: in this instance spekboom is an exception to the norm. Mapped results showed that eCognition classified spekboom poorly, yielding between 64% and 69% correspondence to the accurate manually classified map. As expected three-dimensional area comparative results show that the true surface area on complex terrains was 10% higher than the original (and surveyed) land area of the estate. Results indicate that there are substantial carbon stocks for CT on BLK PNR. This study recommended the most practised form of CT (restoration) for BLK PNR. Over a period of 30 years of restoration on BLK PNR about 46 000 tons of carbon could be sequestrated. At the current price of carbon credits this could accumulate over R3.7 million over the 30-year restoration period. Combining restoration with conservation strategies into one project type has additional favourable characteristics as it takes into account the CS potential of all vegetation communities on the land unit and the ecosystem services it promotes. Conservation of BLK PNR would yield 758 000 tons of carbon. Calculated through emission abandonment, this could be valued at R8-10 million. The economic importance of the vegetation community’s biodiversity on BLK PNR and significant differences between biomes were recorded and implies a total intrinsic value in excess of R830 000 per annum. To date, pilot projects elsewhere have successfully acquired carbon credits for avoided deforestation through the climate, community and biodiversity alliance (CCBA). However, owing to the pilot stage status there is little literature that substantiates the calculation of the monetary value of conservation. This is a fertile area for further research. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die sukkulent-struikplantgemeenskap van Suid-Afrika, in besonder Portulacaria afra (waarna in hierdie studie as Spekboom verwys word), wat in die Struikgewasbioom voorkom, neem ‘n uitsonderlike hoeveelheid koolstofdioksied op (weens die fotosintetiese eienskappe daarvan), veral vir ‘n warm, semi-ariede streek en is in hierdie kapasiteit meer verwant aan woud-ekosisteme. Spekboom het, met betrekking tot koolstofuitruiling (KU) of koolstofhandel, addisionele gunstige eienskappe bo dié van woudsisteme, naamlik lae waterbenutting; potensiaal vir die bestryding van woestynvorming en armoede in ariede omgewings; en die vermoë om brand te weerstaan (Spekboom brand nie), wat sy aantreklikheid as ‘n kommoditeit in KU verhoog, en die betaling vir dienste in die ekosisteem-industrie (BED) verbeter. Grondeienaars wat geïnteresseerd is in die benutting van hul grond vir koolstofopname (KO), word uitgedaag om hul plantgemeenskappe se opnamevermoë en potensiaal vir biodiversiteit te bereken, en gevolglik die hoeveelheid koolstofkrediete wat verkoop kan word, te kwantifiseer. Die doel van die studie was om die KO-vermoë van ‘n geselekteerde eiendomseenheid volgens die oppervlakte onder plantegroei te kwantifiseer en om die waarde van koolstofkrediete wat in die koolstofmark verkoop kan word, vas te stel. Ten aanvang is die probleem van aardverwarming en die uitwerking daarvan op klimaatsverandering in Suid-Afrika uitgelig. KO word beskryf as ‘n proses en oplossing om die hoë en stygende atmosferiese CO2-vlakke te verminder, en die gebruik daarvan in die koolstofmark, om ‘n monetêre waarde te verkry om plantbedekking te bevorder of om biodiversiteit, wat koolstofvoorraad sal vermeerder, te beskerm en te bewaar. Die studieperseel is Bosch Luys Kloof Privaat Natuurreservaat (BLK PNR) in die semi-ariede Karoo. Omrede KO-potensiaal bekend is daarvoor om ‘n reënvalgradiënt te volg, verwag mens dat die semi-ariede Karoo ‘n lae KO-potensiaal sal hê. Hierdie gebied bevat egter Spekboom, ‘n buitengewone struiksoort wat koolstof teen soortgelyke tempo’s as woud-ekosisteme opneem, en behoort daarom voordeel uit KU te trek. Akkurate kartering van hierdie plantegroei is kritiek vir akkurate assessering van koolstofvoorraad. Die KO-potensiaal van alle plantgemeenskappe in die studiegebied is derhalwe vasgestel om die koolstofvoorrade in die totale eiendomseenheid te skat. ArcGIS is gebruik om die plantgemeenskappe (sub-biome) te karteer en eCognition is gebruik om die kartering van die Gamkaruigte (wat Spekboom bevat) deur ‘n objek-georiënteerde benadering tot geoutomatiseerde plantegroeikartering te verfyn. Vir akkuraatheidsassessering is ‘n vergelykbare plantegroeikaart per hand versyfer. Die werklike oppervlakte van die gebied is vir die plantegroeiklassifikasie bereken om akkurate oppervlakberekening van die bergagtige terrein te verseker, en hierdie berekende oppervlakte van die gekarteerde plantegroei is gebruik om oppervlakte na koolstofopname-potensiaal te herlei. Advies oor ‘n bemarkingstrategie vir die grondeenhede is gegee, deur die verskillende markte en uitruilings- of handelsmeganismes vir handel in die koolstofmark te ondersoek. Resultate toon dat weens die BLK PNR se geskiedenis van oorbeweiding, Spekboom op die studieperseel gedegradeer het. Dit skep ‘n geleentheid om die plantegroei met befondsing deur KU te herstel. Die opname-potensiaal van Spekboom op BLK PNR is deur ‘n streeksdifferensiasie-vergelyking bepaal. Die streeksdifferensiasie-vergelyking toon dat hoeveelheid reënval en koolstofakkumulasie omgekeerd eweredig of proporsioneel is, en gevolglik veroorsaak meer ariede omstandighede (<200 mm/jaar, of ‘n droë seisoen van langer as sewe en ‘n half maande) dat Spekboom weens waterstres na Crassulacea-suurmetabolisme (CSM) oorskakel, en sodoende die tempo van koolstofakkumulasie verhoog. In natter omgewings, waar Spekboom nie aan waterstres onderwerp word nie, gaan dit voort met koolstofbinding van 3-fosfogliseraat (C3) en het ‘n laer koolstofakkumulasie. Dit is ‘n merkwaardige bevinding aangesien KO daarvoor bekend is dat dit ‘n reënvalgradiënt volg: in hierdie geval is Spekboom ‘n uitsondering op die reël. eCognition het Spekboom swak onderskei, en slegs ‘n ooreenstemming van tussen 64% en 69% met die akkurate hand-geklassifiseerde gehad. Soos verwag, toon vergelykende resultate van driedimensionele oppervlakte dat die werklike oppervlakte byna 10% hoër is as die oorspronklike (en gemete) grondoppervlak van die eiendom. Resultate dui aan dat daar aansienlike koolstofvoorrade vir KU op BLK PNR is. Hierdie studie beveel die mees gebruikte praktyke van KU (herstelproses) vir BLK PNR aan. Oor ‘n hersteltydperk van 30 jaar op BLK PNR kan ongeveer 46 000 ton koolstof opgeneem word. Teen die huidige prys van koolstofkrediete kan dit meer as R3.7 miljoen oor die hersteltydperk van 30 jaar akkumuleer. Die kombinasie van herstelprosesse en bewaringstrategieë in een tipe projek, hou addisionele voordeel in, omdat dit die KO-potensiaal van alle plantgemeenskappe op die grondeenheid en die ekosisteem-dienste in berekening bring. Bewaring van BLK PNR sal 757 913 ton koolstof lewer. As dit in terme van die staking van uitlatings bereken word, kan dit teen R8-10 miljoen gewaardeer word. Die ekonomiese belangrikheid van die ekosisteem en plantgemeenskap-biodiversiteit op BLK PNR impliseer ‘n totale intrinsieke waarde van meer as R800 000 per jaar. Loodsprojekte elders was suksesvol in die verkryging van koolstofkrediete vir die vermyding van ontbossing deur die klimaat-, gemeenskap- en biodiversiteitsalliansie (KGBA). Vanweë die loodsprojekstatus, is daar egter min literatuur beskikbaar wat die berekening van die monetêre waarde van bewaring staaf. Dit laat ruimte vir verdere navorsing.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Western Cape Province in South Africa is home to one of the most diverse plant communities in the world, and has one of the highest concentrations of plants species in any temperate ecosystem in the world. The dominant vegetation is both fire-prone and fire-dependant (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). The Western Cape in particular is emerging as a province that is increasingly prone to disaster events, particularly the threat of veld fires. The consequences of large wildfire disaster events are often devastating and far reaching (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). This study was conducted in an attempt to investigate the drivers of wildfire behaviour, severity and magnitude in the Limietberg Conservation Area in order to gain a greater insight and understanding of the complexity of wildfire risk. Recognising the disaster prone character of the Western Cape and the increasing probabilities of future wildfire events in the province, this study aimed to strengthen the understanding of the drivers of wildland fire behaviour (i.e. wildland fire risk) in the Limietberg Conservation Area by analysing a number of fires to identify a range of drivers and patterns; examining the factors driving both fire danger and fire behaviour, including climate, topography, slope and fuel; examining the factors driving fire frequency and regime; and finally, determining possible ecological damage caused by the last 10 – 20 years of wildfire events in the Limietberg Conservation Area as measured by post-fire seedling ratios. This was achieved through the use of statistical techniques including multiple regression (McDonald 2009), ordination in the form of principal component analysis and non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (Clarke & Warwick 1994), and fieldwork in the form of post-fire regeneration (Proteaceae parent:seedling ratio) monitoring techniques (Bond et al. 1984; Vlok & Yeaton 2000; De Klerk et al. 2007). The results indicated that the interactions between factors driving fire danger and fire behaviour were indeed complex, being influenced mainly by meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed) but also quite strongly influenced by physical environmental factors (slope, topography). The use of ordination techniques in this sort of complex analysis was seen as extremely effective and its use in further fire research was strongly recommended. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Wes-Kaap provinsie in Suid-Afrika is die tuiste van een van die mees diverse plant gemeenskappe in die wêreld, en het een van die hoogste konsentrasies van plantspesies in enige gematigde ekosisteem in die wêreld. Die dominante plantegroei is beide vuur geneig en vuurafhanklik (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). Die Wes-Kaap in die besonder is opkomende as 'n provinsie wat toenemend geneig is tot ramp gebeure, veral die bedreiging van veldbrande. Die gevolge van groot veldbrand rampgebeure is dikwels verwoestend en verreikend (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). Hierdie studie is uitgevoer in 'n poging om die oorsake van veldbrande, die gedrag, erns en omvang daarvan in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied vir groter insig en begrip van die kompleksiteit van veldbrand risiko te ondersoek. Hierdie studie erken die rampgeneigdheid van die Wes-Kaap en die toenemende waarskynlikheid van toekomstige veldbrande in die provinsie. Dit het ten doel gehad om die oorsake van veldvuur gedrag (bv. brand risiko) in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied deur die ontleding van 'n aantal brande se oorsake en patrone te identifiseer; die ondersoek van faktore wat beide brandgevaar en vuurgedrag, bepaal insluitend klimaat, topografie, helling en brandstof; die ondersoek van faktore wat vuur frekwensie en regime; en uiteindelik die bepaling van moontlike ekologiese skade veroorsaak deur die laaste 10 - 20 jaar van veldbrand gebeure in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied, soos gemeet deur navuur saailing verhoudings. Die doel is bereik deur die gebruik van statistiese tegnieke waaronder meervoudige regressie (McDonald 2009), ordening in die vorm van hoofkomponent analise en multi-dimensionele skaling (Clarke & Warwick 1994), en veldwerk in die vorm van navuur herlewing (Proteaceae ouer:saailing verhouding) moniteringstegnieke (Bond et al. 1984; Vlok & Yeaton 2000; De Klerk et al. 2007). Die resultate dui daarop dat die interaksies tussen faktore wat brandgevaar en vuurgedrag inderdaad kompleks aandryf is en hoofsaaklik beïnvloed word deur meteorologiese veranderlikes (temperatuur, relatiewe humiditeit, windspoed), maar ook baie sterk beïnvloed word deur fisiese omgewingsfaktore (helling, topografie). Die gebruik van ordeningstegnieke vir hierdie komplekse tipe analise is bevind as uiters effektief en die gebruik daarvan in verdere vuur navorsing word sterk aanbeveel.

Systematic back analyses of cross sections through landslipped slopes in Barton Clay have been carried out, based on the both published (cross sections) and unpublished (piezometer) data. The results of these support earlier (Barton, 1973) rather than later (Barton and Garvey, 2011) interpretations. Ring shear tests on clay samples from these landslides show braod agreement with the back analyses. Further back analyses on landslide elements at Herne Bay in the London Clay throw additional light on the behaviour of landslides there. The remaining coastal landslide case histories in London Clay are reviewed. The body of case records compiled by James (1970) for infrastructure (railway) cutting failures in London Clay is reviewed, with new back analyses. These show clearly the deficiencies in that set of analyses on which several important papers were based. Further reinterpretation and analysis goes some way to resolving questions arising from the review. It is concluded that the back analysis technique is a useful one, and when applied correctly provides excellent general agreement with equally careful laboratory testing for extracting the shear strength parameters for a week bed forming the bedding-controlled basal shear of a compound landslide is presented and used. The analyses and tests are supported by a review of publoshed residual strength properties for British clays.

Bibliography: pages 123-133. / The hypothesis was advanced that comparative interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs can be used as a tool in Environmental Impact Analysis (EIA). To test this hypothesis a site, Silwerstroomstrand, approximately 40 kilometres north of Cape Town on the West coast was chosen. An analysis of the site was carried out using aerial photographs taken in 1938, 1960, 1968, 1971, 1977, 1981 and 1983 at scales ranging from 1:7 000 to 1:50 000. Development of the site for recreation began in 1972 and in 1976 for water extraction. Pre-development photographs, 1938, 1960, 1968 and 1971, were stereoscopically compared and the observations were interpreted using a systems approach. From the analysis of the photographs and information on past landuse, the dynamics of the site were described with particular attention to the response of that environment to perturbations such as fire and removal of vegetation. Development actions were analysed to establish any similarity to past perturbations and on the basis of similarities, predictions of probable future responses of the site (and hence impacts) were made. The predicted impacts were compared with: 1. the interpretation of post-development photographs. 2. Impacts identified by a multi-disciplinary panel after a visit to the site. It was found that the major limitation of multi-temporal aerial photographs was the spatial resolution of the early (pre 1970) photographs. However, the capabilities of the tool for quantitative and semi-quantitative data gathering; promoting an understanding of spatial and temporal relationships; monitoring change; communicating information and the fact that it is economical means that it has a positive contribution to make to Environmental Impact Analysis is suggested that the optimal use of the tool of comparative interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photography is to combine it with other tools such as site visits and multi-disciplinary panels.

Bibliography: pages 226-229. / The first part of the thesis covers the background to the research, namely (a) a selective review of previous work in the field of office development and location studies and the subsequent identification of the objectives of the present research, (b) a summary of the historical development of the central area of the City of Cape Town, (c) the definition of the study area, this being the Central Business District of the city of Cape Town and (d) a discussion of the collection of land use and gross floor area data, the identification and resolution of problems in the data and the administering of a postal Questionnaire to 1,400 office establishments in the CBD. This section also covers the problem of identifying and delimiting land use clusters. The technique selected for use in such delimitation was that developed by D. H. Davies (1965) augmented by the development of three 'indices of clustering '. The second part of the thesis presents, by means of thirty-three detailed maps, a comprehensive analysis of office land use patterns in the Cape Town CBD in 1983. Clusters are indicated according to the Davies technique. It was found that many office functions exhibited clustering in distinct parts of the CBD and, moreover, certain functions appeared to show close similarities in their respective location patterns. A factor analysis identified six groups of similarly located land uses, on which basis a model of the spatial organization of the CED was proposed. Data, derived from the postal questionnaire, on the characteristics and requirements of individual office functions was used to explain the location patterns. Previous studies have usually considered linkages as being the primary locational determinant for the office sector, but in this case it was found that clustering and the existence of similar location patterns between office functions usually arose from a combination of common locational requirements. The major locational determinants were found to be the rent paying ability of establishments, the relative importance of the accessibility of the establishment to either general public or commercial clients, the existence of strong linkages with other functions (especially where such functions were eccentrically located with respect to the CBD, such as the Docks) and in some cases the importance of occupying prestige premises. The comparatively minor role of linkages with other functions was considered to be a reflection of the relatively small size of the CBD. The thesis concludes with a study of past trends and future projections of the development of the CBD. The growing dominance of the office sector is clearly revealed, as is the effect of the Foreshore Reclamation Scheme in promoting a northward migration of the Office Core while leaving the Retail Core largely unchanged from its 1957 location. On the basis of current development projects it was projected that there would be considerable short-term vacancy in the office sector by late 1986. In the longer term, though, gross floor area requirements for all uses are predicted to rise by almost 50% to 3.475 million square metres by the year 2000. Such development of all of the space currently permitted by the Town Planning Scheme raises the possibility of space shortages and the loss of remaining historic buildings.

Thesis (DPhil (Geography and Environmental Studies))—University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / The use of average energy aircraft noise contours as the sole means for guiding aircraft noise-based planning around airports is being questioned increasingly. A growing proportion of residents who live in neighbourhoods adjacent to airports are dissatisfied with the averaging procedure that is employed. In their experience of exposure to aircraft noise, particularly in the evening and at night when they are at home, the average energy aircraft noise descriptors are misleading. In order to effectively analyse the socio-spatial interaction of annoyance at and interference by aircraft noise, an alternative approach has been suggested – a supplemental noise perspective. Conventional approaches to aircraft noise land use planning based on average energy noise descriptors run the risk of being ineffectual, or even counterproductive, because they do not consider the central aspects of disturbance, namely the loudness of an event and the number of times events are heard. Consequently, an alternative measure to ameliorate the limitations of average energy noise contours is needed by which airport neighbours, the aviation industry and town planners can better understand the nature of the problem. Although supplemental noise analysis is not new, this study applies it to a South African international airport (OR Tambo) for the first time. The airport’s operations are typical of many busy airports close to large urban areas, serving domestic, regional and international routes. Reportedly, there have been few complaints about noise emanating from the airport, but when they are made they are usually about evening and night-time aircraft noise events. In the context of South Africa as a developing society in transition, where growth of urban settlements continues apace, average energy aircraft noise information must be enhanced by providing supplemental noise information. This study investigated the broad issue of land use planning around airports by employing two aircraft noise prediction models, namely the Integrated Noise Model and the Transparent Noise Information Package, to establish the various potential effects and consequences of night-time aircraft noise in noise zones demarcated according to supplemental aircraft noise information. The effects and consequences examined include annoyance, disturbance of sleep, telephone conversations, watching television and work or study, and the likelihood that people will move away to escape night-time aircraft noise. The perceptions of residents living in neighbourhoods around the airport were surveyed and the responses analysed according to noise zones classified as supplemental noise information. The results show that the airport’s neighbours are annoyed by aircraft noise and that aircraft noise interferes with normal household activities. This annoyance and interference decreases with increasing distance from the airport. Furthermore, reported annoyance and interference is greater in those areas where higher numbers of noise events are encountered, even at relatively low noise levels of 60 LAmax – something not evident from average energy noise contours. This finding strengthens the argument that it is insufficient to provide only average energy aircraft noise information when studying the impact of aircraft noise. To understand the situation more fully, supplemental noise information is essential. The study concludes with a framework constructed to apply supplemental aircraft noise information to the abatement and mitigation measures normally used to deal with aircraft noise.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Gated developments, also known as gated communities, have become a feature of urban living throughout the world and have been the subject of intensive research. Gated developments in South African cities are a ubiquitous feature of the post-apartheid urban landscape with many new housing developments in the form of secure estates or fortified townhouse complexes. Almost all the international literature on gated developments has focused on them as a metropolitan phenomenon. Very few international studies have investigated gated developments in non-metropolitan locales and this topic is unexplored in the South African context. This dissertation addresses this research gap. The study area is the entire non-metropolitan area of the Western Cape province. The politicoadministrative concept of non-metropolitan is used rather than the descriptor rural because the latter implies an area of primary production with no diversification of productive activities. The study area excludes the metropolitan area of Cape Town but includes the rest of the province within which there are settlements of varying sizes having a diverse range of economic activities. It is in these places that gated developments were investigated to cover and discover particular aspects of the hitherto unexplored non-metropolitan gated developments of South Africa. The specific objectives were to place the research in the theoretical and conceptual debates of gated developments; map the occurrence of the phenomenon; and spatially analyse the location and security aspects of the developments at a macro scale. Two towns, Swellendam and Ceres, were selected as case studies as their gated developments present a host of significant features warranting further micro-scale analysis. The spatial and locational analyses yielded other researchable themes specific to certain types of developments, namely retirement gated developments in Oudtshoorn and Swellendam and gated developments outside the urban edge. A comprehensive spatially-linked database of gated developments in the study area was compiled from numerous sources, culminating in a process of groundtruthing that resulted in the collection of data on the physical features of each development. Qualitative data was collected from respondents through interviews, electronic communications and a questionnaire survey. Distribution patterns of gated developments were determined from spatial data and data on physical features was used to calculate security level index values for the gated developments. These data sets enabled spatial and typological comparisons to be made. Qualitative data added a ‘voice’ to the quantitative data and provided insights into social, economic and planning aspects of gated developments. The location of gated developments in the province is largely determined by proximity to metropolitan Cape Town and areas with high occurrences of amenities. The spatio-temporal patterns and typological distinctions of gated developments are influenced by location-specific factors. In some towns the gated developments typify a living space and in others a living and lifestyle space. The security features of gated developments also vary typologically and spatially. Crime data was used to show that the distribution of non-metropolitan gated developments is not necessarily associated with towns with high levels of criminal activity. Security in these developments is not a response to rampant crime, rather a strategy brought into play in case something happens – preparedness in the unlikely event of a breach of security. The gated developments in the two case-study towns are strongly influenced by locationspecific needs, the purposes of residents and the processes of municipalities. Niche market gated developments, as represented in the thematic case studies of retirement gated developments and gated developments outside the urban edge are promoted by pull factors within towns and by the allure of an exclusive rural residential lifestyle of living in areas with high amenity offerings. The latter is linked to the transformation of agricultural land into gated developments, which signals a shift to postproductivist change in the study area. The results of this seminal investigation into non-metropolitan gated developments suggest avenues for further research endeavour. These include the need for greater understanding of the changing nature of social relations between gated and the non-gated inhabitants of non-metropolitan locales; investigation of the potential for increased topophobia within towns; and examinations of the functions of the various stakeholders and role players in establishing non-metropolitan gated developments. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geslote woonbuurte, ook bekend as geslote gemeenskappe, ’n kenmerk van baie stede regoor die wêreld, het die onderwerp van intensiewe navorsing geword. Geslote woonbuurte in Suid-Afrikaanse stede is ‘n alomteenwoordige kenmerk van die post-apartheid stedelike landskap met baie nuwe behuisingsontwikkelings wat as beveiligde landgoede en meenthuiskomplekse gebou word. Die meerderheid van die internasionale literatuur oor geslote woonbuurte beskou hulle as ’n metropolitaanse verskynsel. Baie min internasionale studies het geslote gemeenskappe in niemetropolitaanse lokaliteite ondersoek en dié onderwerp is onverken in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks. Hierdie proefskrif vul dié navorsingsleemte. Die studiegebied is die hele nie-metropolitaanse gebied van die Wes-Kaap provinsie. Die politiesadministriewe konsep ‘nie-metropolitaans’ word gebruik in plaas van die benaming ‘landelik’ omdat laasgenoemde ’n gebied van primêre produksie met geen diversifisering van ekonomiese aktiwiteite impliseer. Dus, sluit die studiegebied die metropolitaanse gebied van Kaapstad uit, maar sluit die res van die provinsie in waar nedersettings van verskeie grootte en met ’n diverse reeks ekonomiese aktiwiteite voorkom. Dit is in hierdie gebiedens dat geslote woonbuurte ondersoek word met die doel om besondere aspekte van hierdie tot nou toe onverkende nie-metropolitaanse geslote woonbuurte in Suid-Afrika, na vore te bring. Die spesifieke doelwitte is om die navorsing binne die breër teorietiese en konseptuele debatte rondom geslote woonbuurte te plaas; die verspreiding van die verskynsel te karteer; die ligging en die sekuriteitsaspekte van die woonbuurte op makro skaal ruimtelik te ontleed. Ceres en Swellendam word as gevallestudies behandel. Die twee dorpe se geslote woonbuurte ’n menigte beduidende kenmerke van hul geslote woonbuurte vertoon, wat verdere mikro skaalanalise regverdig. Die ruimtelike en liggingsanalises het navorsingwaardige temas oor spesifieke tipes geslote woonbuurte onthul. Die temas sluit geslote aftreewoonbuurte in Oudtshoorn en Swellendam en geslote woonbuurte buitekant dorpsgrense in. ’n Omvattende ruimtelike databasis van geslote woonbuurte binne die studiegebeid is uit verskeie bronne saamgestel en ’n proses van terreinverifiëring het vir die inwin van data oor fisiese kenmerke van elke woonbuurt gesorg. Kwalitatiewe data is by respondente verkry deur middel van onderhoude, elektroniese kommunikasie en ’n vraelys opname. Verspreidingspatrone van die geslote woonbuurte is aan die hand van die ruimtelike data vasgestel en die data oor die fisiese verskynsels is gebruik om ’n sekuriteitsindekswaardes van die geslote woonbuurte te bereken. Die datastelle het ruimtelike en tipologiese vergelykings moontlik gemaak. Kwalitatiewe data het ’n ‘stem’ aan die kwantitiewe data verleen en insig in die sosiale, ekonomiese en beplanningsaspekte van geslote woonbuurte verskaf. Die ligging van geslote woonbuurte in die provinsie is grootliks deur nabyheid aan die Kaapse metropool en gebiede met ’n hoë voorkoms van geriewe beïnvloed. Die ruimtelike- en tydspatrone en tipologiese kenmerke van geslote woonbuurte is deur liggingspesifiekefaktore beïnvloed. In sommige dorpe is die geslote woonbuurte as ’n ‘leefruimte’ gekenmerk, terwyl ander geslote woonbuurte as ‘leefruimte en leefstylruimte’ getipeer word. Die sekuriteitsverskynsels van geslote woonbuurte het ook tipologiese en ruimtelike verskeidenheid getoon. Misdaaddata is gebruik om te toon dat die verspreiding van nie-metropolitaanse geslote woonbuurte nie noodwendig ooreenstem met dorpe met hoë misdaadsyfers nie. Sekuriteit is nie ’n reaksie op buitensporige misdaadsyfers nie, eerder ’n strategie wat in werking tree in geval iets gebeur – paraatheid vir die onwaarskynlike gebeurtenis van ’n sekuriteitskending. Die ontwikkeling van geslote woonbuurte in die gevallestudiedorpe is sterk deur liggingspesifieke behoeftes, die doelstellings van inwoners en prosesse van munisipaliteite beïnvloed. Geslote woonbuurte wat nismarkte bedien, soos dié wat deur die tematiese gevallestudies verteenwoordig is, word bevorder deur sekere aantrekkingsfaktore wat dorpe bied en die bekoring van ’n eksklusiewe landelike residensiële lewensstyl in gebiede met ’n hoë voorkoms van geriewe vir lewensgenieting. Laasgenoemde is gekoppel aan die omskepping van landbougrond vir die bou van geslote woonbuurte wat ’n aanduiding van post-produktivistiese verandering in die studiegebeid is. Dié eerste en gedagteprikkelende ondersoek oor nie-metropoolitaanse geslote woonbuurte opper temas vir verdere navorsing. Dit sluit in ’n verstaan van die moontlike veranderings in sosiale verhoudings tussen die inwoners van geslote en ongeslote nie-metropolitaanse lokaliteite, die moontlikheid van verhoogde topofobie in dorpe; en ondersoeke oor die rol van verskillende insethouers en rolspelers in die ontwikkeling van nie-metropoolitaanse geslote woonbuurte.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Mount Rungwe ecosystem (MRE) has unique mountain resources. Its biological, hydrological, economic and cultural endowments offer many development opportunities for Tanzania. Since the 1970s, the MRE has experienced change in land use and means of acquiring livelihoods, calling for scientific investigation into the extent, nature, and magnitude of land use changes and their implications for communities’ livelihoods. The aim of the study was to investigate the major changes in land use, to identify the drivers responsible for these changes and to establish the interrelationship between land use change and communities’ livelihoods in order to suggest desirable management options towards improving rural livelihoods and the ecological integrity of MRE. A research design that integrates both qualitative and quantitative approaches was adopted. The fieldwork involved six villages representative of three ecological zones and 384 respondents were interviewed. Information on the past and present land uses, policies, institutions and processes that have influenced and are influencing land use change in the area was obtained through questionnaires, interviews, field observation, and analysis of documents. Satellite imagery of 1973, 1986, 1991 and 2010 were analysed for spatial and temporal statistics on land use and change. The findings indicate that MRE is experiencing land conversions from one land use category to the other especially in villages of the highland zone. Government policies on the use of and access to forests, agricultural land and energy have contributed to the past and current land use changes. Demographic, cultural, economic and natural factors singly or cumulatively have also induced changes in land use in MRE. Most of the changes in land use were noted between 1991 and 2010. At the district level there was a significant decrease in natural vegetation, particularly bushland and woodland, and an increase in cultivated land. Intensification of agricultural land use was more in the villages of the highland zone than in the middleland and lowland zones. Villages of the lowland zone showed a decline of cultivated land area, particularly in the tree crops category, and a constant or declining trend of the natural vegetation coverage – especially grasslands and woodlands. To reduce unplanned farm expansions into areas of natural vegetation, it is recommended that the Ministry of Agriculture should re-emphasise intercropping practices and provide extension services targeting crops such as potatoes and bananas which are now commercialised. This would be a step towards improving agricultural land productivity and addressing local food security. The ministry of Energy and Minerals could finance the ongoing tree planting efforts by local communities and enhance the use of more efficient charcoal stoves so as not only to protect the remaining forests but also as a way of diversifying the communities’ livelihoods. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Mount Rungwe ekosisteem (MRE) het 'n unieke berggebaseerde hulpbronbasis. Sy biologiese, hidrologiese, ekonomiese en kulturele erfenis bied vele ontwikkelingsgeleenthede vir Tanzanië. Sedert die 1970s het die MRE verandering in grondgebruik ervaar wat implikasies inhou vir bestaanswyses van sy bewoners. Daarom vereis die veranderingsverskynsel wetenskaplike ondersoek na die omvang en aard van grondgebruikveranderinge en die implikasies daarvan vir gemeenskappe se lewensbestaan. Die doel van die studie was om ondersoek in te stel na die belangrikste veranderinge in grondgebruik en om die drywers verantwoordelik vir hierdie veranderinge te identifiseer en die onderlinge verband tussen die verandering in grondgebruik en gemeenskappe se lewensbestaan te identifiseer. Daaruit word wenslike bestuursopsies duidelik vir die verbetering van landelike bestaansmoontlikhede en die handhawing van ekologiese integriteit van die MRE. 'n Navorsingsontwerp wat beide kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe benaderings integreer is gekies. Vir veldwerk is ses dorpe in drie ekologiese sones ondersoek en 384 respondente is ondervra. Inligting oor die grondgebruike, -veranderings, beleide, instellings en prosesse wat die gebied beïnvloed het, is verkry deur middel van vraelyste, onderhoude, veldwaarneming, en dokumentontleding. Satellietbeelde van 1973, 1986, 1991 en 2010 is ontleed vir ruimtelike en temporale patrone van grondgebruik en verandering. Die bevindinge dui daarop dat die MRE grondgebruik-omskakeling van verskillende kategorieë na ander in veral die hooglandsone ervaar. Regeringsbeleid oor die gebruik en toegang tot natuurlike woude, landbougrond en energiebronne het bygedra tot hierdie grondgebruike en hul veranderinge. Demografiese, kulturele, ekonomiese en omgewingsfaktore, enkel of kumulatief, het ook tot die veranderinge bygedra. Die meeste van die veranderinge in grondgebruik is tussen 1991 en 2010 aangeteken. Op distriksvlak het byvoorbeeld natuurlike plantegroei, veral bosveld en woud, beduidend oor die studietydperk afgeneem, terwyl die bewerkte grondoppervlak sterk toegeneem het. Intensivering van landbougrondgebruik was meer intens in die dorpe van die hooglandsone in vergelyking met die middelland en laer sones. Dorpe van die laer sone het weer 'n afname van bewerkte grond, veral boomagtige gewasse, en 'n konstante of dalende tendens van die natuurlike plantegroei ervaar – veral gras- en bosveld. Om ongewenste plaasuitbreidings na gebiede van natuurlike plantegroei te voorkom, beveel die studie aan dat die landbouministerie weer klem plaas op praktyk vir tussenverbouing van gewasse en voorligtingsdienste voorsien vir die verbouing van gekommersialiseerde gewasse soos aartappels en piesangs. Dit sou die verbetering van die landbou-produktiwiteit en die verhoging van plaaslike voedselsekuriteit in die hand werk. Die energieministerie behoort origens deurlopende boomplant-aksies deur plaaslike gemeenskappe te stimuleer deur verskaffing van finansies en moet die gebruik van meer doeltreffende houtskool stowe aanmoedig. Dit sal die oorblywende woude help beskerm en is ook 'n manier om die gemeenskappe se lewensonderhoudstelsels te diversifiseer en te verbeter.