Thesis (DPhil (Geography and Environmental Studies))—University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / Background The Disaster Management Act (Act 57 of 2002) instructs a paradigm shift from preparedness, response and recovery towards risk reduction. In order to plan for and mitigate risks, all spheres of government must firstly assess their hazards, vulnerabilities, capacity to cope and therefore risks. Studies in this regard, in South Africa, have however only focussed on current risks. Climate Change has now been accepted by leading international studies as a reality. Climate change can impact upon many aspects of life on earth. Studies to quantify the impact of climate change on water resources, biodiversity, agriculture and sustainable development are steadily increasing, but human health seem to have been neglected. Only general predictions, mostly regarding vector-borne disease and injury related to natural disasters are found in literature. Studies in South Africa have only focussed on malaria distribution. Most studies, internationally and the few in South Africa, were based on determining empirical relationships between weather parameters and disease incidence, therefore assessing only the hazard, and not the disaster risk. Methodology This study examines the impact of climate change on human health in the Western Cape, within the context of disaster management. A qualitative approach is followed and includes: · A literature overview examining predicted changes in climate on a global and regional scale, · A discussion on the known relationships and possible impacts climate change might have on human health, · A disaster risk assessment based on the status quo for a case study area, the Cape Winelands District Municipality, · An investigation into the future risks in terms of health, taking into account vulnerabilities and secondary impacts of climate change, resulting in the prioritisation of future risks. · Suggestions towards mitigation within the South African context. Results The secondary impacts of climate change were found to have the larger qualitative impact. The impact of climate change on agriculture, supporting 38% of the population can potentially destroy the livelihoods of the workforce, resulting in poverty-related disease. Other impacts identified were injuries and disease relating to temperature, floods, fire and water quality. Conclusion Risk is a function of hazard, vulnerability and capacity to cope. The impact of an external factor on a ‘spatial system’ should be a function of the impacts on all these factors. Disasters are not increasing because of the increase in the frequency of hazards, but because of the increasing vulnerability to hazards. This study illustrated that the major impacts of the external factor could actually be on the vulnerabilities and the indirect impacts, and not on the hazard itself. Climate change poses a threat to many aspects of the causative links that should be addressed by disaster management, and its impacts should be researched further to determine links and vulnerabilities. This research also illustrates that slow onset disasters hold the potential to destroy just as much as extreme events such as Katrina, Rita or a tsunami. It also reiterates that secondary impacts may not be as obvious, but are certainly not of secondary importance.

Thesis (MSc)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The River Health Programme (RHP) is an assessment tool for monitoring the ecological state of rivers to ensure that they remain fit for use by present and future generations. This study, forming part of a RHP assessment conducted on the south-western Cape Hout Bay, Lourens and Palmiet Rivers, has the aim to (1) zone the rivers for representative site selection, (2) assess their habitat integrity (HI), (3) determine the influence of land use on riverine HI and (4) assess the river water quality at the time of the RHP assessments. (1) The desktop geomorphological zonation method used in RHP assessments has not been sufficiently previously tested on short rivers draining the Western Cape Mountains. The Lowland River Zone of the rivers studied, as well as the Hout Bay River’s Upper Foothill Zone, were found to have steeper gradients than expected, probably due to these rivers being shorter and consequently steeper than any on which the method was previously tested. The notion of one gradient river classification system being applicable throughout South Africa, with its diverse geology and climate, is unlikely. Rather a classification system modified for various physiographic features regions or by a factor based on river length is more realistic. (2) Although there is a general longitudinal decrease in HI downstream along the Hout Bay and Lourens Rivers, coinciding with increased anthropogenic activities, HI improves in the Palmiet River’s lower reaches through the Kogelberg Nature Reserve. Surrounding land use thus seems to be a major determinant of HI. Although the Index of Habitat Integrity (IHI) used appears to achieve its aim, it was found to be subjective. Categorisation of the IHI scoring is suggested. (3) The amount of natural versus disturbed land use occurring upstream of a site at a regional and local scale, is a good predictor of riverine HI. Regional alien forestry and local urbanisation have significantly strong negative effects on instream (r2 = -0.80, r2 = 0.80, p<0.05) and riparian (r2 = -0.81, r2 = -0.83, p<0.05) HI. Different land use types therefore appear to affect riverine HI at differing scales and thus managers must not only think on a local but also a catchment scale. (4) In the Hout Bay River, a filtering system (e.g. wetland) appears to improve the water quality between the middle and lower reaches. Along the Lourens River, high total dissolved salts, conductivity and inorganic nitrogen concentrations in the middle reaches are cause for concern. Along the Palmiet River there appeared to be insufficient oxygen to support most aquatic life forms at Grabouw. Impoundments in the middle reaches act as sinks for nutrients and salts, but the Huis and Krom tributaries downstream then appear to degrade the water quality of the Palmiet River’s lower reaches within the Kogelberg Nature Reserve. Together with the results of simultaneous biotic assessments, these results should be used to develop management actions to improve the ecological health of these rivers. The results have been used in a State-of-Rivers Report for the south-western Cape. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Riviergesondheidsprogram (RGP) is 'n asseseringsinstrument wat die ekologiese stand van riviere monitor om te verseker dat hulle steeds bruikbaar bly vir huidige en toekomstige geslagte. Hierdie studie maak deel uit van 'n RGP-assessering van die Lourens-, Houtbaai- en Palmietrivier in die Suidwes-Kaap en het ten doel om (1) die riviere te soneer vir verteenwoordigende terreinseleksie, (2) die habitat-integriteit (HI) te assesseer, (3) die invloed van grondgebruik op rivier-HI te bepaal en (4) die kwaliteit van rivierwater tydens die RGP-assesserings te bepaal. (1) Die geomorfologiese-soneringsmetode wat in RGP-assesserings gebruik word, is nog nie voorheen genoegsaam vir die kort riviere wat die Wes-Kaapse berge dreineer, getoets nie. Daar is bevind dat die studiegebied riviere in die laagland-sones skerper gradiënte het as verwag, gehad het. Dit kan moontlik toegeskryf word aan die riviere wat korter en dus steiler is as enige van dié wat voorheen met die metode getoets is. Die moontlikheid dat een gradiëntklassifikasiestelsel vir riviere regdeur Suid-Afrika met sy diverse geologie en klimaat toegepas kan word, is onwaarskynlik. 'n Klassifikasiestelsel aangepas vir verskillende fisiografiese streke of met 'n faktor gebaseer op rivierlengte, is meer realisties. (2) Alhoewel HI stroomaf langs die Lourens- en Houtbaairivier in die algemeen longitudinaal saam met die toename in antropogeniese aktiwiteite afneem, verbeter die Palmietrivier se HI waar dit laer af deur die Kogelbergnatuurreservaat vloei. Die gebruike van aanliggende grond blyk dus 'n belangrike bepaler van HI te wees. Die Indeks van Habitatintegriteit (IHI) bereik klaarblyklik die vereiste doel, maar is te subjektief. Kategorisering van die IHI-waardes word voorgestel. (3) 'n Goeie voorspeller van rivier-HI is die hoeveelheid natuurlike teenoor versteurde grondgebruik stroomop van 'n terrein op 'n streeks- en lokale skaal. Die sterk negatiewe effek van uitheemse plantegroei in die omgewing en lokale verstedeliking op stroom- (r² = -0.80, r² = 0.80, p<0.05 ) en oewer-HI (r² = -0.81, r² = -0.83, p<0.05) is beduidend. Verskille in tipe grondgebruik beïnvloed rivier-HI op verskillende vlakke; bestuurders moet dus plaaslik en aan die opvanggebied dink. (4) In die Houtbaairivier lyk dit asof 'n filtreringstelsel (bv. vleigrond) die waterkwaliteit tussen die middel- en lae gedeeltes verbeter. In die loop van die Lourensrivier is hoë totale opgeloste soute, geleidingsvermoë en anorganiese stikstofkonsentrasies in die middelgedeelte 'n rede tot kommer. In die Palmietrivier by Grabouw was die suurstof te min om die meeste akwatiese lewensvorme te onderhou. Opgedamde water in die middel gedeeltes dien as 'n sink vir voedingstowwe en soute, maar dit lyk asof die Huis- en Kromrivier die waterkwaliteit van die Palmietrivier stroomaf in die Kogelbergnatuurreservaat degradeer. Saam met die resultate van gelyktydige biotiese assesserings, kan hierdie resultate gebruik word vir die ontwikkeling van bestuursaksies om die ekologiese toestand van hierdie riviere te verbeter. Die resultate is gebruik in 'n toestand-van-riviere-verslag vir die Suidwes-Kaap.

Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The Okavango river along the panhandle of the Delta, in Botswana, is home to many wildlife species as well as to many large village communities. Local communities rely on the riverine system and its resources for subsistence and commerce. Activities associated with the utilization of these resources are governed by the fluctuating water levels of the river, which inhibit access during high water levels and allow access during low water levels. The high intensity of activities, such as reed harvesting, fishing and increased tourism, during low water periods coincides with the breeding season of many wildlife species in the system, including the Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus). Over 90% of crocodile breeding areas in the Delta are found only in the panhandle region. The association between the intensity of human activities in the floodplains and crocodile nesting activity means that much of the habitat required for nesting is vulnerable to human disturbance and this could have severe negative impacts on the future of the Okavango crocodile population. The study evaluated habitat vulnerability by mapping and spatially comparing habitat suitability, based on optimum environmental requirements for crocodile nesting, and human disturbance factors. A detailed crocodile nesting survey was carried out to locate and test all nesting sites according to criteria selected by species experts. The results from the survey were used to locate suitable nesting habitat in the study area by analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Disturbance factors were visually identified and their locations in the study area spatially mapped. Their spatial influences on crocodile nesting were used as factors in a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) that evaluated the combined effect of the disturbances on the area defined as suitable crocodile habitat. The results indicate the extent of habitat vulnerable to human disturbances. The results from the study show that 59% of once suitable crocodile habitat is currently disturbed by human activities. Most of the remaining 41% of undisturbed habitat is located along the Moremi/Phillipa side channel, which represents a core area for protection measures to be instated. The study recommends the declaration of a crocodile nesting sanctuary in this side channel to ensure the breeding success of this keystone species.

Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / The pressure of urbanisation causes an increasing decline in public open space. The intrinsic potential of a system of public open spaces to create a city where inhabitants’ living, working and recreational environments are enhanced is often undervalued. Irrespective of the pressure of urbanisation and the amount of land currently being earmarked for open spaces, there is a growing need for more open spaces in the urban areas of South Africa. It is important to gauge the scope of open spaces in order to monitor their development. This thesis investigates the usefulness of parks in the Bellville municipal area to its inhabitants. This study identified existing parks in Bellville. Open spaces in Bellville make up 15,3% of the total area and since 1996 1,1% of the open space in Bellville has been lost to development. Parks are distributed unevenly throughout the municipal area with the eastern area having the bulk of the open space area percentage and the southern area the smallest proportion. As a result of field studies conducted in Bellville, conforming to guidelines specified by a preceding literature study, a classification system was developed on the basis of area, function and the level of upkeep. Four park types were identified by the classification process, namely neighbourhood, ecological, aesthetical and recreational parks. Following the classification of open spaces the study focuses on the neighbourhood park to gauge the needs of and utilisation by inhabitants. The neighbourhood park was selected as study focus owing to the heterogeneous appearance of this park type and because it is the most common type found (84,5% of all parks) in Bellville. Subclassification into eight subclasses guarantees homogeneous park classes. The presence of recreational structures forms the basis for the classification of neighbourhood parks. Upkeep of neighbourhood parks occurs frequently and approximately 60% of the neighbourhood parks have recreational structures. A stratified random sample selected one park out of each of the eight subclasses for case study. In each case study a simple random sample of park users was made. The population is defined as all households in a 300m radius of the park. Questionnaires were distributed to the selected households. Irrespective of their busy schedules during the week, the inhabitants still have ample free time over weekends. Free time is generally spent at home though a significant percentage of inhabitants take excursions to enjoy walks in nature. Children and pensioners most frequently make use of parks. Parks are generally visited on a weekly basis. Neighbourhood parks are visited over weekends for walks and for use as playgrounds. Most of the inhabitants are satisfied with the appearance of the neighbourhood parks, though they feel security at the parks is insufficient and parks are inadequate for the playing needs of children. Awareness of parks forms an integral part in park use. Being unaware of parks or having to travel far have a significant effect on non-usage of parks. In order to encourage park use it is essential to create multifunctional parks catering to the inhabitants’ varying needs and utilisation of parks. Single functional parks can be transformed into multifunctional parks by adding additional attractions thereby addressing inhabitants’ needs and extending the existing function of the park. Effective management of parks is essential in preserving them as continuing assets in the Bellville municipal area.

Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The Rural Aquaculture Development Programme (RADP) of the Division of Aquaculture at Stellenbosch University (DASU) has the objective of socio-economic development of farm workers and rural communities from previously disadvantaged communities through the provision of opportunities for sustainable economic development by establishing small-scale fish-farming systems on irrigation dams. The Small-Scale Aquaculture Farming Systems (SSAFS) is an initiative of RADP. DASU intends implementing 20 new projects by the end of 2005, 100 by 2010 and at least 200 by 2020. Thus far, sites which can accommodate 25 projects have been identified. The owners of the land on which these 25 possible projects are located are being contacted to gain permission to use the sites for the SSAFS. It is possible that some of the owners of the sites will not allow them to be used so that not all 25 projects will necessarily be implemented. At present the predominant search method employed by DASU to find new sites involves two steps. Initially knowledge is acquired through word of mouth about dams that may be suitable. Personnel then drive to these dams for further inspection, to see if they are indeed suitable. This method of search is clearly both expensive and time-consuming. Geographical information systems (GIS) have as yet not been considered as an alternative and/or supplementary site selection method for the SSAFS. GIS tools and principles can reduce both expenses and time in locating sites by reducing the number of dams to be visited to only those that are optimal (i.e. they present the least risk of the SSAFS projects failing). A new site selection methodology using GIS was developed which is faster and less expensive than existing site selection methods. The GIS site selection methodology revolves around the isolation and selection of dams in the Berg and Breede River water management areas, based on their ability to fulfil certain parameters of critical variables comprising dam dimensions, environmental issues, distance measures and site security, according to a priority hierarchy, that determine a successful site for trout farming according to methods employed by the SSAFS. Once this methodology was produced, it was presented to five people who are directly involved with the SSAFS as well as four others who are not involved with the SSAFS but who might find the methodology useful, to determine whether they hold that the methodology is indeed better than existing search methodologies. Those who were presented the GIS site selection methodology felt that it is very useful and that it could be employed in future to make more informed choices when locating new sites for the SSAFS as well as other aquacultural enterprises.

Thesis (MSc (Geography and Environmental Studies))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / The climate of southern Africa varies greatly spatially and temporally. Tyson‟s (1987) examination of long-term rainfall records has shown an 18-year cyclical pattern of wet spells alternating with dry spells. Recurrent droughts are thus a feature of southern Africa‟s climate. Although climate change resulting from global warming could intensify future droughts, current predictions of regional climate change are unreliable. This study evaluates the nature, adequacy and effectiveness of Zimbabwe‟s drought policy in reducing the vulnerability of rural communities to the impact of drought. The objectives of the study are to explore the different meanings of the concept of drought; to explain the relevant concepts and frameworks of the hazard assessment and management discipline; to describe the current status of disaster management in general and drought in particular; to identify the mechanisms used by small-scale farmers in Sontala ward for coping with drought; and to evaluate the adequacy and effectiveness of Zimbabwe‟s drought policy in reducing the vulnerability of rural communities to drought impacts. A qualitative approach was used which involved analysis of government documents and academic literature. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with government officials at provincial level and small-scale farmers at ward level in Matabeleland South province. The data collection exercise was, however, constrained by the current political instability in the country. The study established that the Civil Protection Act No 10:06 of 1989, complemented by relevant sections of other laws, provides a legal framework for disaster management. The Ministry of Local Government, Public Works and Urban Development has a coordinating role. Coordinating committees at national, provincial and district level formulate disasterresponse plans to be activated when a disaster occurs. The Civil Protection System uses existing government, private and non-governmental organizations whose regular activities contain elements of disaster risk prevention and community development. The enactment of the Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Management Act will remove some of the shortcomings of the Civil Protection System.

Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / River basins have long been attracting human settlement and development, promising water and fertile lands (Newson 1992). The Bot River Catchment on the southern coast of South Africa is no exception. However, much of the development in this catchment has not been controlled and its land and water resources are being abused. This is affecting the water quality and quantity of the river system and estuary at an alarming rate. In this thesis, the ‘reference’ land cover in the Bot River Catchment is recreated. This term is used to describe “the hydrological state of the catchment as it was when completely covered in natural vegetation, thus before it was impacted by humans” (Jacobs & Bruwer 2002:12). A rainfall-runoff model is employed to investigate the effects of various land covers on the catchment’s runoff quantity, by comparing the simulation results of the catchment’s reference and current state. The results of the model point to a large reduction in runoff since the reference state of the catchment. As the rainfall-runoff model applied did not allow for modelling of the annual agriculture that dominates the catchment, the runoff reduction was attributed to the smaller areas of perennial agriculture, forestry and alien vegetation infestation. The simulation results confirmed the threat of current land use practices on the environmental integrity of the Bot River Catchment. A transition to agricultural practices that are more suited to the climate is suggested and the eradication of alien vegetation should be seen as a priority. Most importantly, a holistic approach should be taken towards the management of the Bot River Catchment. The altered hydrodynamic regime of the Bot River Estuary is symptomatic of misuse of the entire catchment. As ongoing demographic and land use pressures create a new generation of water management problems (Department of Water Affairs & Forestry 1993), a deeper understanding of the relationships between the different components in the Bot River Catchment becomes increasingly urgent.

Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The Garden Route is located along the southern Cape coast of South Africa, between the Outeniqua Mountain Range and the coast, stretching from Gourits River in the west to Bloukranz River in the east. This region is recognised as a holiday destination and the centre of the southern Cape’s tourism industry. It has also gained popularity as a golfing destination set to proliferate in terms of new golfcourse developments (Golf Digest 2004; Gould 2004; Granger 2003). No known complete academic or public record is however available for the study area in which all the golf development types, namely short courses, public-municipal golf-courses and residential golf estates, are recorded. This leaves a gap in the understanding of the Garden Route as a golfing destination, as well as opening the floor for public speculation about the status of the Garden Route golfscape. This situation emphasises the need for a description of the Garden Route golfscape in order to achieve a better understanding of it and of the Garden Route as an emerging golfing destination. The research aspires to describe the Garden Route golfscape in terms of the geographic spatial distribution and characteristics of all the golf development types mentioned. It also aims to analyse how the public and developers of golf developments perceive the Garden Route golfscape. The research has shown that amongst the four identified intra-regional golfscapes of the Garden Route, namely the Mossel Bay, George, Knysna and Plettenberg Bay intra-regional golfscapes, the George intra-regional golfscape has been affected the most by golf developments. This intra-regional golfscape has the greatest number of existing golf developments, as well as the highest number of new golf development applications followed by Mossel Bay, Knysna and Plettenberg Bay. It is also clear from the research that the press, through publishing factually incorrect and biased information, plays a significant role in negatively affecting the public’s perception about the Garden Route golfscape. The literature, as well as the results of the public opinion poll, identifies residential private golf estate developments as the development type responsible for controversial golf debates. The survey indicated that there is less concern and objection to public-municipal golf-courses and short courses. The lack of public support for golf developments is as a result of the fact that the public is not convinced that either the natural environment or tourism, will benefit from the Garden Route developing into an international golfing destination. At the time of research, the Garden Route hosted 22 approved golf developments of which nine are short courses, another nine are golf estates and the remaining four are public municipal courses. A total of eight new golf estates are proposed for the Garden Route. There are no proposals for new public-municipal golf-courses or short courses. The research has highlighted that existing challenges associated with Garden Route golf developments must be quantified through future research in order to compare the impacts (economic, social and environmental impacts) with that of other land uses in the study area. Results from such future exercises, combined with future in-depth environmental and human resource audits of the area, will help determine the carrying capacity of the study area for golf developments, which will in turn contribute to an even better understanding of the Garden Route golfscape.

Thesis (MSc (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / The Agulhas Plain, an area rich in fynbos, was monitored within six months after the February 2006 fire. The potential of using medium resolution imagery, specifically from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in determining the re-growth rates of indigenous and alien vegetation types after fire was explored. Pixels representing dense areas of each vegetation type were selected. There was a significant difference in the pixels selected for each vegetation type. A time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data was derived and fitted to functions, such as Double Logistics and Asymmetric Gaussian as implemented in the TIMESAT software. The results show that alien vegetation grows faster after a fire occurrence than in its absence. Within the specified months of monitoring, it was observed that fynbos grew faster than the alien vegetation. Also, the re-growth rates of vegetation on the coastal soils were higher than those of vegetation on the inland soils. The determination of the re-growth rate was necessary to assist resource managers determine the appropriate time for follow-up of clearing invaded sites after fire.

Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / The West Coast Fossil Park near Langebaanweg in the Western Cape, South Africa, is known for its abundance of marine, freshwater and terrestrial fossils of Mio-Pliocene age. The fossil bearing deposits reflect the complex and varied depositional environments, which were influenced by the change in course of the Berg River and regressions and transgressions of sealevel. The fossil deposits at this site are world-renowned for their species richness and uniqueness and there was a need to gain an in-depth understanding of the events that gave rise to this situation. To understand these complexities, it was necessary to construct a composite model of the pre-history of the West Coast Fossil Park, incorporating topological, geological and palaeontological data. GIS provided the ideal platform to integrate data from such varied sources, using spatial correlation to interpret commonalities. Subsequently, a spatially explicit database of the present-day study area, from Dwarskersbos in the north to just north of Yzerfontein in the south, was constructed. The oldest geological formation, the basement layer, as well as three successive formations was reconstructed on a regional scale using borehole data. Interpolation of point data to regional surfaces was a dual process incorporating expert opinion and purpose-built tools within ESRI’s ArcInfo and ArcMap 8.3. A similar reconstruction at a finer scale was done for the West Coast Fossil Park area using kriging as an interpolation method. These reconstructed geological layers can be used to predict the depth and location of fossil-bearing deposits. There is scope for further study and analysis to compare the accuracy of alternative interpolation methods, and combining it with field-based validation of modelled outputs.