Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The Air Defense Laboratory (ADL) Simulation is a software program that models the way an air-defense officer thinks in the threat assessment process. The model uses multi-agent system (MAS) technology and is implemented in Java programming language. This research is a portion of Red Intent Project whose goal is to ultimately implement a model to predict the intent of any given track in the environment. For any air track in the simulation, two sets of agents are created, one for controlling track actions and one for predicting its identity and intent based on information received from track, the geopolitical situation and intelligence. The simulation is also capable of identifying coordinated actions between air tracks. We used three kinds of aircraft behavior in the simulation: civilian, friendly and enemy. Predictor agents are constructed in a layered structure and use "conceptual blending" in their decision-making processes using mental spaces and integration networks. Mental spaces are connected to each other via connectors and connecters trigger tickets. Connectors and Tickets were implemented using the Connector-based Multi Agent System (CMAS) library. This simulation is one of the first applications to use cognitive blending theory for a military application. We demonstrated that agents can create an "integration network" composed of "mental spaces" and retrieve any mental space data inside the network immediately without traversing the entire network by using the CMAS library. The results of the tests of the simulation showed that the ADL Simulation can be used as assistant to human air-defense personnel to increase accuracy and decrease reaction time in naval air-threat assessment. / Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy

This thesis evaluates Japanese geopolitical change in the post-Cold War era. It does so by analyzing Japan's history, its foreign policy since 1945, its reasons for becoming a normal country, and the impact of its normalization. This thesis makes three arguments. First, Japan, although its history is replete with internal rivalry and conflict, never displayed an aggressive foreign policy with expansionist and adventurist characteristics*with the exception of an insignificant expedition to Korea in the 1590s*before the Meiji Restoration. Second, Japan should become a normal country because it would advance Japan's regional leadership, increase the likelihood of Japan's accession to the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member, and improve its economy in both the short and the long run. Finally, no significant barrier stands against Japanese normalization; however, Japan must follow cautious and amicable relations with China and the two Koreas in order to achieve normalcy. In conclusion, the thesis makes policy recommendations for Japan and the United States regarding Japanese normalization.

Since 2001, the Kingdom of Thailand has seen a resurgence of ethno-religious (Malay-Muslim) violence that has killed approximately 800 people, causing obvious disruption within the nation and instability in the region. As one of the US' staunchest allies in Southeast Asia and with the potential for this violence to intensify further, it behooves the US government to offer solutions to help mitigate or reduce the violence in southern Thailand. This thesis examines the history of southern Thailand, analyzing the political factors behind the Malay-Muslim rebellions of the past, tracing the roots of their rebellion back to the era of Patani Raya and the "Siamization" of the south. It explores the various trends and actors and other antecedent conditions (external influences) during the recent violence. Information on the various separatist groups operating in southern Thailand is provided along with an analysis of the porous Thai-Malay border and the role of PAS in southern Thailand. Lastly, this thesis examines an NPS field experimentation program entitled "Coalition Operation Area Surveillance and Targeting System" (COASTS). COASTS provides tactical, actionable information to remote and local decision-makers by integrating commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), lighter than air vehicles (LTA), and unattended air and ground sensors, and wireless meshed networks technologies. If deployed to problematic areas, systems like COASTS can assist the Royal Thai government in reducing the violence in the south.

This dissertation explores the challenges posed by the materialities of oceans and other extraterritorial spaces to state capture and capital development. Utilizing theories emerging political geographers surrounding vertical and volume components of territory and theoretical engagements with materiality of non-terrestrial spaces, this research seeks to investigate entanglements of the geopolitical and geophysical in constructing and practicing (re)interpretations of territory and sovereignty, power and space. A focus on New Zealand and the South Pacific serves to unravel these cross scalar, dynamic categories of national territory and sovereignty in relation to the emerging political and social constructions of the deep sea, sea level, and air space, as well as the blurred and shifting boundaries of each. Contextualizing historical and regional contingencies of the spatial organizations of maritime space, this dissertation seeks to open up new ocean imaginaries and ontologies by making explicit the material, technical and political constructions that produce offshore territories.

Migration due to climate change has been going on for millennia, and societies´ resilience will be put to pressure even more with an accelerating global warming.22, 5 million people have left their homes due to climate change since 2008, according to the United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR, 2017). All of these people are not recognized as refugees, but some of them will most likely seek refuge abroad. The aim of this Master´s thesis is to explore how the UN, the EU, and Sweden understand and analyse the phenomenon of climate induced migration from a geopolitical aspect. It is furthermore to explore the institution´s preparedness through analysing the suggested measurements they utilise today and recognize a need for the future. Applying a human security perspective, this thesis aims at exploring the following two questions; what views and perspectives of climate induced migration exist in the UN, the EU and among Swedish authorities, and what legal, technical, economic or other measures do they respond with to meet climate induced migration? The results confirm that there is a consensus among the institutions that climate change will lead to cross-border migration to some extent but the preparedness for it is inadequate in terms of available measurements.

The presented dissertation is devoted to the problems of transition economy efficient functioning of Uzbekistan based on the Uzbek model of economic reforms and distinctive futures, and factors which are impacting to form national models: mentality, religion and confessional orientation, integration and participation in the world community, national treasure and political structure of government, geopolitical and economical situation, communication, culture and tradition. The key problems, such as reaching macroeconomic stability and social orientation of economy, strengthening plural economy, integration of Uzbekistan to the world community are discussed in the theme. Economic reforms in Uzbekistan begun due to real opportunities of national economy and mentality of the nation. National construction model of the economic reform of Uzbekistan relied on the principal positions such as social orientation, problem solution of economic stabilization, macroeconomic increase, economic regulations based on market principle, liberalization of economy by minimization of government control ("invisible hand"), keeping the government to play an active role in solving social problems and having a chance to select potential foreign investment. World economy and international policy come out in the united block, changing with places as the subject and the object. Thus, international economic relation represent by itself the alloy of the economy and policy, brought to the level of adoption and realization of the administrative solutions and rivalry in modern world, determination of forms and methods of development and improvement of the market economy, that became an important factor of social development and solution of the crucial problems of economic and social progress. Taking into consideration all these, the work is built by the logic and contemporary principles of international economic relations. The dissertation begins with the introduction part, where the importance of the theme is substantiated, the purposes and tasks are formulated, the object is selected, and the subjects of experiment, scientific novelty, theoretical and practical significance of work is reflected; continuing the study with the further main parts of the dissertation that analyze and evaluate the key problems to be solved. It is formed taking into account the logical sequence of the theme and solution of both theoretical and systematic problems of the formation and reformation under the contemporary conditions. The first part of the dissertation, under the title: "Theoretical-methodological bases of the national model of the economic reforms of Uzbekistan", analyses the survey of the international experience of transition into the market relations, and also special features, principles and stages of forming the national model of Uzbekistan. In part "Foreign economic policy of Uzbekistan - the mechanism of their realization" the special features of commercial and economic reformation, change in principles and priorities of foreign economic policy, their interrelation taking into account by world financial and economic crisis are investigated. The third part assesses the geopolitical situation, prospects for the development of collaboration and strategy of the European Union towards the CA region and evaluates the significance of Afghanistan. In the further part "Uzbekistan and the European states: priorities and directions of their collaboration", the export relations of the republic with the European Union countries is investigated, and also the future prospect for the development of collaboration is evaluated. To conclude the main challenges of transition economy of the country on the base of Uzbek model of economic reforms are identified and the proposals are formulated, that occurred as a result of a study. It is necessary to point out that the years of independence became the time of the active entry of Uzbekistan into the international arena, the dynamic conduction of independent policy. The collaboration of young Uzbek state with the countries of Europe with the qualitatively new content was filled. Being located in the heart of central Asia, sovereign Uzbekistan actively participates in the European program of strengthening stability and safety in Europe and Asia, strengthening democratic values. Commercial and economic, political, cultural and scientific connections consecutively deepen. They contribute in forming and development of the democratic state with free market economy in Uzbekistan, steady integration of the country into the world community, to increase its respect, significance and authority in the international arena.

Population development of Kazakhstan: geographic, economic and geopolitical aspects Abstract Present research based on analysis of the main trends in demographic development of Kazakhstan at the national and regional level. Demographic changes are quite important factor affecting the problems of territorial, economic and geopolitical development of the country. Relatively small population quite clearly reflects the changes of economic and geopolitical conditions. The result of it is the changes in population size, structure, and geographical pattern. Over the past decade in Kazakhstan observed population growth and change of ethnic structure. Against this background, distribution of the population within the country becomes one of the key problems in Kazakhstan. The main reason is growing disproportions in economic development of regions. Quite significant role here plays the ethnic heterogeneity of the regions, which also determines the nature of population development. Under such conditions, the demographic development acquires strategic importance.

Orientador: Luis Antônio Paulino / Banca: Agnaldo dos Santos / Banca: Mauri da Silva / Resumo: Com o fim da Segunda Guerra Mundial, estabeleceu-se no mundo, sob o comando dos Estados Unidos e, em posição secundária, da Inglaterra, um sistema de governança global cujos principais pilares - a ONU com seu Conselho de Segurança, o FMI, o Banco Mundial e o GATT (agora OMC) - que permanecem até os dias de hoje como os fóruns relevantes para a discussão e encaminhamento dos grandes problemas econômicos e políticos internacionais. Ocorre que a conjuntura política que levou à prevalência desse sistema há muito deixou de existir. Com a debacle da União Soviética e o consequente fim da Guerra Fria pareceu que o mundo finalmente havia chegado a uma situação unipolar na qual o único país hegemônico seria os Estados Unidos. Tal cenário entretanto não durou mais que uma década, a de 1990. Com a chegada do século XXI um novo quadro se formou com a ascensão de novos polos de dinamismo econômico no mundo. O acontecimento mais relevante foi a ascensão dos países em desenvolvimento e nomeadamente a ascensão da China. Por outro lado, a liderança política e econômica dos Estados Unidos, sobretudo após a crise de 2008, começou a ruir. Abriu-se assim um vazio na política internacional e um quadro de grande incerteza. De um lado, os Estados Unidos e seus aliados europeus fazem de tudo para garantir os privilégios herdados do sistema de governança herdado do pós-guerra, mesmo que isso implique, no limite, em ir à guerra. De outro lado, a ascensão da China nas relações internacionais tanto polít... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: With the end of World War II, a system of global governance was established in the world under the command of the United States and, in a secondary position, of England, whose main pillars - the UN with its Security Council, the IMF, the World Bank and the GATT (now WTO) - which remain to this day as the forums relevant to the discussion and referral of major international economic and political problems. It happens that the political conjuncture that led to the prevalence of this system has long ceased to exist. With the debacle of the Soviet Union and the consequent end of the Cold War it seemed that the world had finally reached a unipolar situation in which the only hegemonic country would be the United States. This scenario, however, did not last more than a decade, that of 1990. With the arrival of the twenty-first century a new framework was formed with the rise of new poles of economic dynamism in the world. The most relevant event was the rise of developing countries, including the rise of China. On the other hand, the political and economic leadership of the United States, especially after the crisis of 2008, began to crumble. Thus, a vacuum emerged in international politics and a picture of great uncertainty. On the one hand, the United States and its European allies do their utmost to secure the privileges inherited from the system of governance inherited from the post-war era, even if this implies, at the limit, going to war. On the other hand, the rise of China ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

A população indígena Guarani desde tempos imemoriais ocupa tradicionalmente as Bacias do Rio Paraguai, Paraná e Uruguai e seus afluentes, ou seja, a grande Bacia do Prata. A região da Bacia do Paraná na Tríplice Fronteira entre Brasil, Paraguai e Argentina é denominada pelos Guarani como sendo uma parcela do Tekoa Guassu (conjunto de várias aldeias Guarani ou Aldeia Grande). Ali possuem o direito de permanecer, reconhecido legalmente desde a época colonial portuguesa e pelas sucessivas constituições brasileiras. No decorrer do século XX com a instalação de empreendimentos estatais brasileiros na região do oeste paranaense, os Guarani foram esbulhados de suas terras desaparecendo assim, inúmeras aldeias. Instalou-se um processo de desconstrução do território indígena. Grande parte da população indígena foi expulsa para o Paraguai, concentrando-se junto às aldeias ali existentes, localizadas na fronteira com o Brasil. Apesar das pressões, uma única população Guarani conseguiu resistir no Brasil. Trata-se dos habitantes da antiga aldeia do Ocoy-Jacutinga. Em 1973, ela teve a maior parte de suas terras ocupadas pelo INCRA, visando reassentar colonos retirados do Parque Nacional do Iguaçu. Em 1982 a parte restante do território indígena, foi totalmente inundada com a construção da Usina Hidrelétrica de Itaipu. Somente parte dos indígenas foram compulsoriamente reterritorializados para a Terra Indígena Avá-Guarani do Ocoy. A transferência da população, legalmente deveria ser de todo o agrupamento indígena, para terras de igual extensão e ambientalmente semelhantes à anterior, e ainda seu uso deveria ser exclusivo. Ocoy apresenta dimensões diminutas, menores que a anterior e ambientalmente comprometida. É sobreposta à Área de Preservação Permanente do reservatório da Usina Hidrelétrica de Itaipu, terras em que, antes, constituía-se parte de Glebas de Colonos, os quais não foram indenizados pelo INCRA. Dada a insuficiência de terras e os problemas sociais decorrentes das superposições, os Guarani sofrem toda sorte de impactos sociais, ambientais, econômicos e sanitários. Tentativas de reterritorialização por parte dos indígenas foram reprimidas pelo Estado. Encontram-se acuados e necessitam de terras em ambiente adequado para sua reprodução física e cultural. Para esta solução, é preciso descartar falsas versões, que atribuem à emigração de indivíduos Guarani provenientes do Paraguai, a existência de excesso demográfico no Ocoy. Esta assertiva vem sendo utilizada, impedindo e mascarando a resolução do problema fundiário. O crescimento demográfico no Ocoy é semelhante ao de qualquer aldeia da etnia. Na verdade, não é a população indígena que é excessiva, mas o território onde foi reassentada que se apresenta insuficiente e inadequado desde a sua instalação no local. Tal situação é fruto de histórico descumprimento das leis pelos poderes Executivo e Judiciário federais, favorecendo grupos de poder locais. / Traditionally, since memorable times, the Paraguay, Paraná and Uruguay Bays and their tributaries, known as the greater Prata Bay, have been occupied by the Guarani Indian population. The Paraná Bay in the triple border between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina is identified by part of the Guarani as Tekoa Guassu (a cluster of many Guarani villages or Big Village). Their right to live there is legally recognized by the consecutive Brazilian Constitutions since Portuguese Colonial Times. During the 20th century the Guarani were evicted from their lands due to the Brazilian governments enterprises in the west region of the Paraná State which caused the disappearance of countless villages. It initiated a process of dissipating the Indian Territory. Great part of the Indian population was pushed to Paraguayan lands in the border with Brazil where other villages already existed. In spite of that, one Guarani population, the inhabitants of the old village known as Ocoy-Jacutinga managed to resist in Brazilian territory. However, in 1973, the majority of its lands was occupied by INCRA, to resettle colonists that were withdrawn from Iguaçu National Park. In 1982 the remaining part of the Indian Territory was completely flooded with the construction of Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant. Only part of the Indians were compulsorily relocated to the Indian Land of Avá-Guarani do Ocoy. Legally the transference of that population should be for whole Indian group to lands of the same extension and environmentally similar to the previous ones with exclusive occupation. Ocoy, conversely, presents diminutive dimensions, smaller than the preceding one and environmentally impaired. It is overlaped by the Area of Permanent Preservation of Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant reservoir; lands that were previously part of the colonist areas, which were not reimbursed by INCRA. Due to the small quantity of land and the social problems developed by the overlapping, the Guarani Indians suffer all kinds of social, environmental, economic and sanitary impact. Indian resettlement attempts were restrained by the State. They are cornered and need the land in a proper environment for their physical and cultural reproduction. For a solution to that matter, it is necessary to throw away false versions that attribute emigration of Guarani Indians from Paraguay due to demographic excess in Ocoy. The use of such statement is an impediment to the resolution for the land property problem. The demographic growth in Ocoy is similar to any other of its ethnic villages. Actually, it is not the Indian population that is excessive but the place where they were resettled that is insufficient and inadequate from the start. Those circunstances are a consequence of the historical unbinding of the law from the Brazilian Judiciary and Executive Federal Institutions on behalf of local power groups.

O presente trabalho objetiva analisar a ascensão de movimentos nacionalistas periféricos na Europa, no período pós-Guerra Fria, em um contexto de intensificação do processo de integração observado na União Europeia nas últimas três décadas, além de estabelecer comparações entre as três nações sem Estado que mais avançaram na luta independentista no século XXI: Flandres, Escócia e Catalunha. Também serão analisadas as circunstâncias que levaram à realização de ações de descentralização política nos três Estados que contêm as nações aqui estudadas: Bélgica, Reino Unido e Espanha e por que estas medidas de acomodação de minorias nacionais não surtiram o efeito esperado, já que, em vez mitigar a luta por autonomia e/ou soberania por parte destes movimentos subestatais, a fortaleceram. A pertinência do tema se revela à medida que recrudescem estes movimentos, não só na Europa, mas em todo o mundo, denotando a crise que vive o Estado democrático liberal no que concerne ao binômio: reconhecimento das minorias nacionais e manutenção da integridade territorial dos Estados que as contêm. Além disso, a força dos nacionalismos revela o quanto os processos de globalização e integração regional vêm sofrendo reveses neste século. Dentro da perspectiva da Geografia Política, é fundamental que o tema do nacionalismo seja fortemente analisado, já que se vislumbra um cenário de reorganização do espaço mundial, em função das fragmentações territoriais que podem ocorrer a partir do recrudescimento dos movimentos nacionalistas periféricos. Este quadro já foi visto em outros momentos da História, como nos períodos pós-Primeira Guerra Mundial e pós-Guerra Fria, com as desintegrações de Impérios no primeiro caso, e com o desmantelamento da União Soviética e Iugoslávia, no segundo caso. / This current paper aims to analyze the rise of peripheral nationalist movements in Europe in the post-Cold War period, in a context of intensification of the integration process observed in the European Union in the last three decades, as well as comparisons between the three stateless nations more advanced in the struggle for independence in the 21st century: Flanders, Scotland and Catalonia. It will also analyze the circumstances that led to political decentralization actions in the three States that contain the nations studied here: Belgium, the United Kingdom and Spain and why these measures of accommodation of national minorities did not have the expected effect, since instead of mitigating the struggle for autonomy and/or sovereignty on part of these sub-state movements, they have strengthened it. The relevance of the theme is evident as these movements intensify, not only in Europe, but throughout the world, denoting the crisis that the liberal democratic State is experiencing in terms of the binomial: recognition of national minorities and the maintenance of the territorial integrity of States which contain them. Moreover, the strength of nationalism reveals how the processes of globalization and regional integration have suffered setbacks in this century. Within the perspective of Political Geography, it is fundamental that the theme of nationalism be strongly analyzed, since a scenario of reorganization of the world space can be seen, due to the territorial fragmentations that can occur from the resurgence of peripheral nationalist movements. This picture has been seen at other times in history, such as post-World War I and post-Cold War periods, with the disintegrations of empires in the first case, and with the dismantling of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia in the second case.