After the nuclear fallout in Japan, Germany decided to back out from nuclear energy while at the same time changing the energy supply from fossil to renewable sources. This elaborate plan, known as Energiewende, will require significant economic and structural efforts that will have profound impacts on the environment and society itself. It is therefore crucial to identify possible technological pathways that can lead to a renewable energy supply, while reducing negative impacts on a holistic scope. In order to analyse alternative energy technology scenarios in Germany, this thesis focuses on the development of an indicator-based numerical Sustainable Energy Systems (SEnSys) model approach. Other than previous approaches, the SEnSys model considers full aggregated impacts of technological pathways leading to future configurations. With the help of an exemplary case study on two alternative energy technology scenarios (Trieb1 and Trieb2), the feasibility of the SEnSys model in evaluating sustainability is subsequently assessed. The results can affirm the findings of previous studies concerning lower economic and environ- mental impacts for scenario Trieb2, with small shares of renewable energy imports, compared to scenario Trieb1 based on only local but fluctuating renewables. Additionally, the results are in accordance with other relevant studies, while offering new valuable insights to the topic. Given a comprehensive revision of the identified uncertainties and limitations, it can be stated that the SEnSys model bares the potential for further analysing and improving sustainability of energy technology scenarios in Germany and other countries.

The ongoing energy transition in Germany foresees significant increases in the share of renewable energies in the country’s electricity mix until 2030. A share of 80% is targeted and photovoltaics should have a major contribution with a total capacity of 215 Gigawatts aimed to be installed. Since the beginning of the energy transition in Germany, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) has played a key role with its regulations and support measures. The latest amendment of the EEG in January 2023 includes updated capacity addition targets and regulatory measures. In recent years, the solar branch in Germany has experienced growth after a period of drought from 2013 to 2017. The governmental plans are the basis to enable further growth, but challenges and uncertainties remain if the targets can be reached under the present and anticipated future constraints. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of the capacity addition targets for photovoltaics and outlines the potential contribution of different photovoltaics system types within the installation plans. Through the conduction of semi-structured interviews with different stakeholders of the solar branch in Germany, a large variety of knowledge, experiences, perspectives and assessments is combined to theory which provides answers to the research questions. The results of the data analyses show, that the governmental targets are theoretically feasible but it is doubtful whether they will be reached in practice. Two of the main challenges which will need to be overcome are lacking installation capacities in form of skilled workers and hindering bureaucratic processes regarding planning, approvals, operations and accounting of photovoltaics plants. Moreover, the results indicate that the share of large-scale systems should increase, as scale-effects make them more cost-efficient and more capacity can be installed in the same amount of time. Most of these systems will be ground-mounted, but industrial roof-top systems will also contribute to a certain extent. Furthermore, integrated photovoltaic applications will increase in importance, due to the scarcity of areas and potential synergies. However, most of the stakeholders do not see a major contribution of such systems until 2030, as costs are too high, specific regulations are missing and market awareness is still low. Despite the dominance of large-scale systems, the segment of residential roof-top photovoltaic systems also has a high potential and consumers will want to produce their own electricity due to high energy prices and supply uncertainties.

This thesis investigates the performance of business model innovation (BMI) by incumbent power utility and clean-tech start-up firms influenced by the German Energiewende. It emphasises the factors that impact BMI from a managers’ perspective, examines success factors for managers to overcome BMI challenges, and addresses contingencies to perform BMI in a more structured way. The research is driven by the German Energiewende. It has been chosen as Germany is considered one of the world’s leading markets for renewable energies and a transformation of the power sector is currently underway. Therefore, established power utility firms face severe changes, which have the characteristics of a potential disruption to their business model (BM). At the same time, new players are challenging these incumbents with new BMs. The research is underpinned by the extant literature on BMs and BMI. The research approach is based on two case studies; the incumbent power utility and the clean-tech start-up sector. The qualitative study comprises of 24 semi-structured interviews conducted with top tier managers, from 18 firms, responsible for BMI within these firms. Key findings: This study extends our knowledge of BMI in both a start-up and an incumbent environment that is influenced by various contingent events. It portrays barriers to BMI and depicts critical success factors for BMI that point out solutions on how to overcome these barriers. It provides a structured BMI framework for established firms and illustrates future BM archetypes in this sector. It clearly documents the German Energiewende is regarded as a disruptive threat from the perspective of incumbent power utility managers. The theoretical contribution of this thesis is a process framework including all identified drivers and challenges for BMI in both established and start-up firms. Contributions to practice include critical success factors for BMI, recommendations to overcome barriers to BMI and future BM archetypes within the newly evolving Energiewende industry based on sustainable technologies.

It is known that the heating and cooling market constitutes a large part of energy market across Europe and that the domestic and non-domestic buildings have together the largest share of energy demand. The aim of the European climate goals is to reduce the use of fossil fuel based systems and the allowance of energy demand. These have been striving reasons to increase efficiency and reduce GHG emissions on energy systems for buildings. The climate goals and regulations mentioned in this study implicates that European countries strives towards renewable sources in the heating sector, and encouraging heating networks with renewable sources. E.ON has developed a new low temperature district heating and cooling system called EctogridTM, a heat network integrated with heat pumps and cooling machines to supply energy. This thesis will thoroughly describe this heating and cooling system, called EctogridTM, and its constitutive components. The aim of this study is to determine whether the energy markets in Germany and United Kingdom are ready for an introduction of EctogridTM, and exploit existing and upcoming obstacles. To determine this, two research questions are answered through literature review, research and a case analysis. The first research question is evaluating the energy market in Europe with a focus on the heating demand in Germany and United Kingdom where fossil fuels are the dominating fuel. Second research question is comparing EctogridTM with a 4th generation district  heating  network, 4GDHn, in costs to evaluate the competitiveness with existing energy systems on the market. It is concluded that obstacles exist, how big they are for EctogridTM differs from country to country. How developed and flexible the infrastructure is, what energy sources and technologies are commonly used for heating purposes, building insulation, energy prices and regulations are factors that more or less variates from country to country and decides the severity of the feasible imposed obstacles. Germany and United Kingdom mostly uses decentralized gas boilers for the building heating demand, people often reasons them to have cheap running cost due to the energy prices. This study shows that that despite the big difference in energy price between gas and electricity for a household, heat pumps with a minimum COP of 3.5 will have lower running costs  than traditional gas boilers. Since EctogridTM uses heat pumps with a COP between 4-5, in optimal conditions, it is quite competitive in running cost to gas boilers. The obstacle here lies in most buildings being old and insufficient insulated for an EctogridTM system and the investment costs often being more expensive compared to gas boilers. Installing a heat pump or a gas boiler shows that the CO2 emissions per kWh of useful heat (kg CO2/kWh) are 0.31 for a gas boiler and 0.16 for an AHP which means a decrease in emissions of around 50% per useful kWh heat. The case study compared 4GDHn with an EctogridTM solution as an energy system. The case study consisted of 3 buildings with a heating and cooling need in a newly built area in Germany and United Kingdom. The study showed that an EctogridTM solution was more expensive for the customers but more profitable for producers when comparisons were made with regards to the current energy prices and estimations. However, a larger area with a much higher energy demand needs to be considered to see the real competitiveness of EctogridTM and electrified solution. A larger cooling demand will benefit EctogridTM  while reducing the profits of a 4GDHn. The uncertainty of the acquired data, since no pilot project exists yet, makes it hard to draw a certain conclusion whether it is a more competitive energy system than a 4GDHn and other current low carbon heating systems. / Värme- och kylbehovet utgör en stor del av energisektorn i Europa, där kommersiella och icke- kommersiella byggnaderna tillsammans står för den största andelen av energibehovet i energimarknaden. Målet med Europas klimatmål är bland annat att minska användningen av fossila bränslen samt energibehovet. Klimatpåverkan från värme- och kylsystem i byggnadssektorn har varit omfattande och klimatmålen motiverar ägarna av energisystemen att bli mer energi effektiva och minska deras växthusemissioner. Klimatmål och bestämmelser som nämns i denna rapport visar att länderna i Europa strävar efter att främja förnybara källor i värmesektorn, där värmenätverk är ofta nämnd.E.ON har utvecklat ett låg temperaturs nätverk som kallas för EctogridTM, där nätverket är integrerat med värmepumpar och kylmaskiner för att leverera energi. Det här arbetet kommer noggrant att beskriva EctogridTM och dess djupgående komponenter.Syftet med denna studie är att avgöra om energimarknaden i Tyskland och Storbritannien är redo för en implementering av EctogridTM, och upplysa om de existerande samt framtida hindren. För att svara på detta är två nyckelfrågor framtagna och besvarade genom litteraturstudie, forskning och en fallstudie.Första nyckelfrågan utvärderar energimarknaden i Europa med fokus i Tyskland och Storbritanniens värmebehov där användingen av fossila bränslen utgör större delen av marknaden. Andra nyckelfrågan jämför kostnaderna mellan EctogridTM  och 4:e generationens fjärrvärmenätverk, detta för att ta veta hur konkurrenskraftig EctogridTM är gentemot nuvarande och snarliknande energisystem i marknaden. Studien visar att hinder existerar när EctogridTM introduceras till marknaden, hur stora dom är kan variera mellan olika länder. Hur utvecklat och flexibelt infrastrukturen är, vilken energikälla samt teknologi som vanligtvis används för komfortvärmen, byggnadsisolering, energipriser och bestämmelser är faktorer som mer eller mindre varierar mellan länderna och  bestämmer storheten på hindret/n. Tyskland och Storbritannien använder mestadels lokala gaspannor för värmebehovet i byggnader. Ofta associeras gaspannor med låga driftkostnader på grund av energipriserna. Den här studien visar att värmepumpar med en genomsnittlig COP som är minst 3.5 har lägre driftkostnader än traditionella gas pannor, trots den stora skillnaden mellan gas- och elpriset. Då EctogridTM använder värmepumpar som i drift skall ha en genomsnittlig COP på mellan 4-5, vid optimala förhållanden, är detta system konkurrenskraftigt gentemot lokala gaspannor. Hindret här ligger i att de flesta byggnader inte är tillräckligt bra isolerade och kan implementera EctogridTM då systemet opererar i för låga temperaturer, samt att investeringskostnaderna oftast är betydligt dyrare än ett system med gaspanna. Vid installation av en luftvärmepump eller gaspanna visar att CO2 emissionerna per kWh nyttig värme (kg CO2/kWh) är 0.31 för en gaspanna och 0.16 för luftvärmepumpen, vilket leder till en halvering av CO2 utsläpp. Den skapade fallstudien jämför 4:e generationens fjärrvärmenät med en EctogridTM lösning, där systemen ska förse tre nybyggda fastigheters värme- och kylbehov i ett nybyggnationsområde i Tyskland samt Storbritannien. Fallstudien visade att implementerandet av EctogridTM var dyrare för kunden men avkastningen för energibolagen var högre än 4:e generationens fjärrvärmenät, detta baserades på nuvarande energipriser samt prissättningen. Men det är rekommenderat att göra en jämförelse över ett större område med högre energibehov än i denna fallstudie för att få en mer verklig uppfattning. Ökad andel av kylbehov än i denna fallstudie är även något att se över då det ökar avkastningen för EctogridTM och förväntas öka effektiviteten avsevärt för systemet. Något som inte är lika fördelaktigt för 4:e generationens fjärrvärmenät. Det är svårt att ge helt tillförlitliga slutsatser och resultat då ett pilotprojekt på EctogridTM inte existerar ännu, det vill säga den data som har varit grunden för vår analys och resultat är inte bekräftad att vara helt korrekta. Vilket gör att man med säkerhet inte kan säga om EctogridTM är mer eller mindre konkurrenskraftig än 4:e generationens fjärrvärmesystem och andra befintliga lågemitterande värmesystem.

This thesis investigates the performance of business model innovation (BMI) by incumbent power utility and clean-tech start-up firms influenced by the German Energiewende. It emphasises the factors that impact BMI from a managers’ perspective, examines success factors for managers to overcome BMI challenges, and addresses contingencies to perform BMI in a more structured way. The research is driven by the German Energiewende. It has been chosen as Germany is considered one of the world’s leading markets for renewable energies and a transformation of the power sector is currently underway. Therefore, established power utility firms face severe changes, which have the characteristics of a potential disruption to their business model (BM). At the same time, new players are challenging these incumbents with new BMs. The research is underpinned by the extant literature on BMs and BMI. The research approach is based on two case studies; the incumbent power utility and the clean-tech start-up sector. The qualitative study comprises of 24 semi-structured interviews conducted with top tier managers, from 18 firms, responsible for BMI within these firms. Key findings: This study extends our knowledge of BMI in both a start-up and an incumbent environment that is influenced by various contingent events. It portrays barriers to BMI and depicts critical success factors for BMI that point out solutions on how to overcome these barriers. It provides a structured BMI framework for established firms and illustrates future BM archetypes in this sector. It clearly documents the German Energiewende is regarded as a disruptive threat from the perspective of incumbent power utility managers. The theoretical contribution of this thesis is a process framework including all identified drivers and challenges for BMI in both established and start-up firms. Contributions to practice include critical success factors for BMI, recommendations to overcome barriers to BMI and future BM archetypes within the newly evolving Energiewende industry based on sustainable technologies.

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Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: With the introduction of Section 17 of the EnWG (German Energy Economy Act), the legislator created a new situation for the complex relationships in the German offshore wind industry. The transmission system operators are now obliged not only to provide the connection for offshore wind farms, but also to reimburse the developers of such plants for the costs they incurred in the course of planning the cable connection between the wind farm and the onshore grid. Forecasts had predicted that by 2007 numerous offshore wind farms would be operational. But no development company in the entire sector had moved beyond the planning phase. However, the rapid development of the offshore wind industry is important in order to achieve the German goal to generate 20% of all energy from renewable energy sources by 2020 and thus contribute to the prevention of grave climate changes. It is also important for the domestic labour market and the initiation of further exports of energy technologies. Early domestic growth will eventually payoff as offshore wind energy is implemented by more countries, which will then rely on the experience of German companies. Under these circumstances, Section 17 (2a) S.3 of the EnWG induces a positive impulse for offshore development. Under the financial constraints that dampened the expectations of developers of offshore wind farms, the suggested reimbursement will offer welcome relief. However a broad interpretation of Section 17 (2a) S.3 of the EnWG must be applied in order to reach the goal of actually enhancing offshore development, as is the legislator's intent. Such a broad interpretation of the reimbursement claim will lead to rapid implementation of the new law, as this will be in the interest of the developers and transmission system operators. The developers will have a large interest in beginning with the actual construction of the wind farm, and the transmission system operators will need to proceed with the planning of the cable connection. Even though improvements remain necessary the introduction of Section 17 (2a) S.3 EnWG can be considered a success. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Met die inwerkingstelling van afdeling 17 van die EnGW (Duitse Energie Ekonomie Wet), het die regering 'n nuwe situasie geskep vir die komplekse verhouding in die Duitse see-gebonde wind-energie industrie. Die transmissie stelsel operateurs word nou verplig om nie net die verbinding met die wind-plaas te verskaf nie, maar moet ook die ontwikkelaar van die aanleg vergoed vir enige kostes wat hulle aangegaan het met die beplanning van die verbinding tussen die windplaas en die elektrisiteits-netwerk. Vooruitskattings het voorspel dat verskeie see-gebonde windplase operasioneel sou wees teen 2007. Geen ontwikkelingsmaatskappy het egter al tot dusver verder as die beplanningstadium gevorder nie. Desnieteenstaande, die spoedige ontwikkeling van die see-gebonde wind industrie is onontbeerlik in die Duitse mikpunt om 20% van energiebehoeftes op te wek vanuit hernubare bronne teen 2020 en om dus klimaatsverandering teen te werk. Dit is ook belangrik vir werkskepping in Duitsland en vir die uitvoer van energie tegnologie. Spoedige groei in die industrie sal uiteindelik dividende lewer soos seegebonde wind-energie deur ander lande ontwikkel word en gevolglik op Duitse ervaring moet staatmaak. Onder hierdie omstandighede het afdeling 17 (2a) 5.3 van die EnGW 'n positiewe effek op seegebonde ontwikkeling. As gevolg van die dempende effek wat finansiele beperkinge het op die verwagtinge van ontwikkelaars sal die terugbetalings welkome verligting bied. Dit is egter nodig om 'n bree interpretasie van afdeling 17 (2a) 5.3 van die EnGW te gebruik om die mikpunt van werklike bevordering van seegebonde ontwikkeling te bewerkstellig soos die wetgewer beoog. So 'n bree interpretasie sal lei tot spoedige implimentasie van die nuwe wet omdat dit in die belang van ontwikkelaars en transmissie-netwerk eienaars sal wees. Die ontwikkelaars sal baat daarby om spoedig met ontwikkeling te begin, terwyl die netwerk operateurs vordering sal moet maak met die beplanning van die kabel-verbinding. Ten spyte daarvan dat verdere verbeteringe nodig is kan die inwerkingstelling van afdeling 17 (2a) 5.3 van die EnGW as 'n sukses gereken word.