As international commerce continues to emerge due to telecommunication and transportation breakthroughs, the eagerness of companies to send particular business functions offshore increases. Offshoring is the removal of a company function (particularly, manufacturing) from a domestic location to a remote destination. Since many developing economies contain low labor wages, companies in the United States and Europe are able to leverage cost savings by paying low compensation to foreign production employees. The low cost concept, though, does not always offer significant financial reward. For companies with particular product types, business models, or limited experience, offshoring proves to be an expensive mistake that is difficult to reverse. Even so, some U.S. enterprises are reshoring their production function to combat the issues faced in the foreign manufacturing sector. This study aims to investigate the problems of offshoring and proposes a “systems-view” decision framework for global sourcing.

Ett vanligt förekommande problem för investerare som använder trendföljande strategier är att de ofta hamnar felpositionerade när en trend tar slut. I den här studien visas hur ett riskaptitsindex, Global Risk Appetite Index (GRAI), kan användas för att förutspå dessa trendbrott och på så sätt förbättra trendföljande strategiers prestation. Indexet implementeras som indikator i tre olika trendföljande strategier och lyckas under rätt förutsättningar förbättra alla strategiernas prestation, under backtesting över de senaste 16 åren. Strategierna presterar generellt bäst, det vill säga ger högst avkastning i förhållande till risken, då signal att marknaden kommer vända ges 2-3 veckor efter att indexet når någon av extremzonerna panik eller eufori. Extremzonerna definieras som 5:e respektive 95:e percentilen av indexets värde under en tidsperiod bakåt i tiden. Bäst resultat erhålls då denna tidsperiod är 2-3 år.  Vidare undersöks alternativa sätt att beräkna Global Risk Appetite Index. Tillgångarna som studeras för att ge en bild av riskaptiten varieras och det visar sig att en version som endast studerar sex olika marknadsindex förbättrar de trendföljande strategierna mest, vilket är en klar förenkling över de 64 tillgångar som används i den ursprungliga versionen av indexet. / A regular problem for investment managers who use trend following strategies are that they often find themselves badly positioned when at the end of a trend. In this study it is shown how a risk appetite index, Global Risk Appetite Index (GRAI), can be used in order to predict these trend breaks and thereby improve the performance of trend following strategies. The index is implemented as an indicator for three different trend following strategies and given the right parameters, the return of all three strategies is increased during backtesting on data from the previous 16 years. In general, the strategies give the highest return in relation to risk when signal that the trend will reverse is given 2 to 3 weeks after the index reaches one of the extreme zones, Panic or Euphoria. These extreme zones are calculated as vales under the 5:th or over the 95:th percentile of the index’s value over a certain window back in time. The best result is achieved when this timespan is 2 to 3 years. Furthermore, alternate ways to calculate Global Risk Appetite Index are studied. The assets that are analysed in order to quantify the risk appetite are varied and it is shown that a version of GRAI analyzing only 6 more summarizing market indices give better results when used in trend following models. This is a clear simplification from the 64 assets used in the original version of the index.

<p>This dissertation consists of two essays in international macroeconomics. In the first essay I explore the role of portfolio diversification in explaining the distribution of foreign investment across countries. I do so by adopting a portfolio allocation approach to risk, that is widely used in empirical finance, to complement more traditional analyses of foreign capital flows across countries. I capture the portfolio diversification motive by a measure of country-specific riskiness, "covariance risk", which I construct as how countries' growth rates covary with the stochastic discount factor of a representative international investor. The idea is to capture the extent to which investments in a foreign economy provide a hedge against the investor's overall risk. My key new empirical finding is a strong and significant correlation between this new measure of country riskiness and foreign investment allocations. Less risky countries, i.e countries whose growth rates are more highly correlated with the investor's stochastic discount factor, receive larger investment shares than more risky countries. I interpret this result as evidence that investors do take into account diversification opportunities not only for portfolio investment decisions but also for foreign direct investment decisions. My empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions of standard portfolio allocation models.</p><p>In the second essay I explore the business cycle regularities of low-income countries in comparison to those observed in middle- and high-income countries. The data reveals several distinguishing features of the business cycle in low-income countries compared to the other two income groups: acyclical trade balances; highest volatility of consumption relative to output; highest volatility of debt; highest average debt-to-output ratio and lowest average savings ratio; significant negative correlation between domestic saving rates and the net foreign asset position. My main finding is that a small open economy model with both trend and transitory shocks to productivity, and varying intertemporal elasticity of substitution, motivated by subsistence consumption theories, can be used to account for the distinguishing features of the three income groups. The theoretical model shows that while both permanent shocks and transitory fluctuations around the trend are important sources of fluctuations in low-income countries, temporary shocks play a predominant role. In comparison to the other two income groups the volatility of the temporary shock for the low-income countries is more than three times higher than that for the high-income group and twice as large as that for the middle-income group. The same pattern holds for the permanent shock.</p> / Dissertation

Working with international suppliers in global supply chains, manufacturing firms now are faced with substantial supplier risks which could be triggered by disruptions in either their suppliers or the supplier’s market. Reactive actions to the risks, however, have usually been shown to be inefficient and sometimes ineffective. In this dissertation, therefore, I develop a theoretical framework linking some key relationship-specific capabilities to supplier risk. My contention is that the capabilities, when developed, can help proactively mitigate the risk. Thus, the model in this study is grounded in the resource-based and the relational views. In this study, the survey method has been employed to collect data from 66 manufacturing firms in the United State who are sourcing from international suppliers. Procedural and statistical methods have been employed to guard against typical empirical issues including non-response bias, common method bias, and problems in validity and reliability of measurement instruments. Structural equation modeling with partial least squares was employed to test the model with bootstrapping to estimate t-values for the paths. The analysis results showed support for the model. A conclusion from the study is that visibility is the critical relationship-specific capability that needs to develop for buying firms to mitigate supplier risk proactively. This is because it may not be substitutable by other mechanisms like goodwill trust, and other capabilities, including absorptive capacity and IT integration, will only operate via visibility to influence risk performance. Moreover, visibility is a significant capability that helps mitigate risk regardless of the relationship duration between the buyer and the supplier and of the market conditions under which the supplier is working. This study thus adds to the risk literature with discussions of supplier risks. Nuances have also been added to the resource-based and relational views by developing the theoretical relationships among the identified capabilities and by examining the contextual conditions under which the relationships are working to mitigate supplier risk. Managers from both sides of a dyadic relationship may benefit from the study by utilizing the tools and the study results to monitor and mitigate supplier risk.

The objective of the Master's Thesis Global problems of the current world according to National Geographic magazine is an analysis of the National Geographic magazine approach to informing about contemporary environmental problems. Using a qualitative content analysis the author aims to find out whether there are some specific routines or phenomenons appearing in the articles when covering the environmental topics in media. The theoretical part focuses on general description of the environmental problems media coverage, on explanation of the term globalisation and on contemporary global problems definitions. It also summarizes the 125-year history and the most important milestones of the National Geographic magazine. The practical part consists of research on media reflection of global environmental problems in reportages and their thematic anchoring. It is based both on local and international studies on similar topic. The summary presents and interprets the results of the analysis.

This thesis examines the relationship between food prices, oil prices, carbon emission prices, exchange rates and global risk perception. To obtain the effects of these variables on the food prices, Toda and Yamamoto procedure is employed for 5-day week daily time series covering the period February 27, 2008 and March 21, 2011. The empirical results indicate that only volatility index Granger causes food prices. Furthermore, according to results of generalized impulse response plots food prices respond to all variables in the short run.

Poor cost performance of construction projects has been a major concern for both contractors and clients. The effective management of risk is thus critical to the success of any construction project and the importance of risk management has grown as projects have become more complex and competition has increased. Contractors have traditionally used financial mark-ups to cover the risk associated with construction projects but as competition increases and margins have become tighter they can no longer rely on this strategy and must improve their ability to manage risk. Furthermore, the construction industry has witnessed significant changes particularly in procurement methods with clients allocating greater risks to contractors. Evidence shows that there is a gap between existing risk management techniques and tools, mainly built on normative statistical decision theory, and their practical application by construction contractors. The main reason behind the lack of use is that risk decision making within construction organisations is heavily based upon experience, intuition and judgement and not on mathematical models. This thesis presents a model for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance of construction projects. The model has been developed using behavioural decision approach, fuzzy logic technology, and Artificial Intelligence technology. The methodology adopted to conduct the research involved a thorough literature survey on risk management, informal and formal discussions with construction practitioners to assess the extent of the problem, a questionnaire survey to evaluate the importance of global risk factors and, finally, repertory grid interviews aimed at eliciting relevant knowledge. There are several approaches to categorising risks permeating construction projects. This research groups risks into three main categories, namely organisation-specific, global and Acts of God. It focuses on global risk factors because they are ill-defined, less understood by contractors and difficult to model, assess and manage although they have huge impact on cost performance. Generally, contractors, especially in developing countries, have insufficient experience and knowledge to manage them effectively. The research identified the following groups of global risk factors as having significant impact on cost performance: estimator related, project related, fraudulent practices related, competition related, construction related, economy related and political related factors. The model was tested for validity through a panel of validators (experts) and crosssectional cases studies, and the general conclusion was that it could provide valuable assistance in the management of global risk factors since it is effective, efficient, flexible and user-friendly. The findings stress the need to depart from traditional approaches and to explore new directions in order to equip contractors with effective risk management tools.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est de déterminer les risques et les barrières d’investissement dans le secteur des énergies renouvelables, en Tunisie, et d’en déduire les stratégies et les mécanismes à adopter pour accélérer le processus de transition vers les énergies renouvelables. Bien que les fondements de cette thèse soient basés sur l’analyse économique, elle privilégie, plutôt, une approche interdisciplinaire de management du risque. Nous avons procédé à une étude de cas d’un projet d’énergie solaire thermodynamique à concentration (le projet « TuNur ») qui aura lieu au sud de la Tunisie. Nous avons utilisé la méthode d’Analyse Globale des Risques (AGR) qui permet de déterminer les cartographies des risques (le diagramme de Kiviat et le diagramme de Farmer) ainsi que les moyens pour les réduire. L’application de cette méthode nous a permis de dégager la liste des 8 risques majeurs ainsi que les mécanismes et les stratégies à adopter pour les réduire. A la fin de cette thèse, nous avons présenté les différentes formes de gouvernance énergétique qui permettent de faciliter la diffusion des énergies renouvelables en Tunisie. Nous avons expliqué le fait que la politique énergétique de transition vers les énergies renouvelables doit être faite par les autorités publiques, au début, mais elle doit progresser rapidement vers d’autres formes de gouvernance, en passant par la participation du secteur privé et la gouvernance locale participative jusqu’à arriver à un stade où la gouvernance des risques devient nécessaire. / The main objective of this thesis is to identify and analyze the risks and barriers faced by renewable energy investors, in Tunisia, and to deduce strategies and mechanisms that should be adopted to accelerate the process of transition to renewable energies. Although the foundations of this thesis are based on the economic analysis, it favors, rather, an interdisciplinary approach of risk management.We conducted a case study of a project of concentrating solar power (the “TuNur” project) which will be held in southern Tunisia. We used the Global Risk Analysis method (GRA) which permits the determination of cartographies of risks (Kiviat diagram and Farmer diagram) and the ways to reduce them. The application of this method allowed us to generate a list of 8 major risks and the mechanisms and strategies to reduce them. At the end of this thesis, we presented the different forms of energy governance that facilitate the diffusion of renewable energies in Tunisia. We explained that the energy policy of transition to renewable energies must be made by public authorities, at the beginning, but it must quickly move to other forms of governance, through private sector participation and participative local governance until we get to a stage where the risk governance becomes necessary.

La recherche porte sur l’actualité de la notion de cosmopolitisme. L’origine de cette notion remonte en effet aux racines de la philosophie, mais la période contemporaine présente une caractéristique inédite dans la mesure où elle offre la possibilité d’envisager, pour la première fois, une traduction politique de ce concept. Certes le cosmopolitisme a toujours eu une dimension politique, mais, aujourd’hui, la « citoyenneté » dont il est question dans l’idée de « citoyenneté mondiale » n’est plus seulement métaphorique. Ce travail peut donc être vu comme une théorisation générale du cosmopolitisme politique contemporain. La thèse défendue est la suivante : la notion de « citoyenneté mondiale » a gagné une effectivité politique nouvelle à l’époque contemporaine. Ce travail se propose d’analyser le cadre conceptuel proposé par ce qu’on appelle aujourd’hui la « démocratie cosmopolitique », c'est-à-dire le cosmopolitisme politique. Il s’agira de l’articuler à une compréhension plus générale du concept de cosmopolitisme, de montrer les biais par lesquels le cosmopolitisme gagne en effectivité sur le plan politique, et de mesurer la pertinence des critiques possibles. / The research focuses on the notion of cosmopolitanism as it applies today. The origin of this concept dates back to the roots of philosophy, but the contemporary period presents a unique characteristic which, for the first time, offers the possibility to consider this concept in a political sense. While cosmopolitanism has always had a political dimension, today "citizenship", when applied to "global citizenship", is no longer purely metaphorical.This work can therefore be seen as a general theory of contemporary political cosmopolitanism. The supported point of view is the following: the notion of "global citizenship" has taken a new political reality in modern times. This essay aims at analyzing the conceptual framework of what is now called the "cosmopolitan democracy", i.e. "political cosmopolitanism". It will articulate this conception to a more general understanding of the concept of cosmopolitanism, show the ways through which cosmopolitanism becomes more effective in the political sphere, and assess the relevance of possible critics.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2017-05-09T16:19:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cristian Ricardo Wittmann_.pdf: 2164206 bytes, checksum: 49c25d7d8a7018f82a6c1f9547047c10 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-09T16:19:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cristian Ricardo Wittmann_.pdf: 2164206 bytes, checksum: 49c25d7d8a7018f82a6c1f9547047c10 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-10-31 / Nenhuma / A presente tese tem como tema a função regulatória dos programas de integridade, também conhecidos como programas de compliance, na gestão dos riscos das nanotecnologias em usos militares no contexto da sociedade global. Tomando como partida uma perspectiva epistemológica pragmático-sistêmica e com o apoio do método construtivista tem como objetivo geral analisar as possibilidades e limites da utilização de programas de integridade para a regulação das nanotecnologias no uso militar a partir de uma concepção global e complexa da sociedade e do Sistema do Direito. Enquanto problema de pesquisa tratou de responder sob quais condições os programas de integridade poderiam ser considerados uma fonte de Direito em uma sociedade global com a emergência de os usos militares das nanotecnologias. Identificou-se inúmeras limitações da concepção moderna de Direito e da Sociedade fundada em território e na exclusividade do Estado na produção e decisão jurídica quando dos problemas que surgem junto com a contemporaneidade. Nesse contexto apresenta-se o Direito enquanto campo autônomo e distinto do Estado que, com uma característica policontextural, tem sua estrutura entre centro e periferia, reconhecendo novos atores e contextos de produção jurídica como é o caso do Direito produzido no seio de organizações. Compreendeu-se também a característica de risco que marca a sociedade global, em especial em decorrência do desenvolvimento tecnológico que envolve as nanotecnologias e seus usos militares. Observou-se que tais avanços científicos proporcionam transformações em distintos produtos e processos ao mesmo tempo que implicam em muita incerteza e risco de suas consequências. Restrições frente aos riscos em geral das nanotecnologias são apresentados em conjunto com àqueles decorrentes dos usos militares, em especial aqueles presentes no Direito Internacional Humanitário. De forma objetiva apresenta-se os programas de integridade enquanto equivalentes funcionais dos programas de decisão jurídica no contexto dos ensinamentos de Niklas Luhmann, Gunther Teubner e Leonel Rocha, mostrando suas características, modelos e possibilidade de compatibilidade deles no cenário global e policontextural do Direito. Nessa linha apresenta-se as possibilidades com as quais os programas de integridade integrarem o Sistema do Direito e, portanto, serem reconhecidos como fonte de produção jurídica na perspectiva de regular, de forma privada, autônoma e voluntária no contexto das organizações os riscos oriundos das nanotecnologias quando das aplicações militares. Confirma-se, assim, a hipótese inicialmente proposta quando da fase de projeto acerca da possibilidade da compreensão dos programas de integridade, quando em compatibilidade com as demais produções normativas globals – incluindo as ordens nacionais e internacionais, como fonte de Direito aplicável quando da situação dos riscos produzidos por decisões sistêmicas dos usos bélicos das nanotecnologias. / This thesis aim to study the regulatory function of compliance programs to the risk management of nanotechnology in its military uses in the context global society. Taking as initial step a pragmatic-systemic epistemological perspective and with the support of the constructivist method, has as main objective to analyze the possibilities and limits of the use of compliance programs for the regulation of nanotechnology in military use from a global and complex conception of society and of the Law System. While research problem tried to answer under which conditions the compliance programs could be considered a source of law in a global society with the emergence of military uses of nanotechnology. It is identified several limitations of the modern conception of law and society founded in the territory approach and the State exclusivity in the production and legal decision when the problems that come along with the contemporary. In this context it is showed the law as a separate and distinct field of State, with a polycontextural attribute, has its structure divided between center and periphery, recognizing new actors and legal contexts of production such as the Law produced within organizations. It is also understood the risk characteristic that marks the global society, particularly as a result of technological developments involving nanotechnologies and their military uses. It was observed that such changes provide scientific advances in products and processes while involve considerable uncertainty and risk of its consequences. Restrictions of risks in general nanotechnologies are presented together with those resulting from military uses, especially those provisions of International Humanitarian Law. Objectively the results presents the compliance programs as functional equivalents of the decision programs in the context of the teachings of Niklas Luhmann, Gunther Teubner and Leonel Rocha, presenting its characteristics, models and the possibility, within compatibility on the global and polycontextural of law produced. This line shows the possibilities with which the compliance programs integrate the Law System and thus be recognized as source of legal production in the organization’s perspective of a private, autonomous and voluntary basis in the context of the risks from nanotechnologies when military applications. It is confirmed, thus the hypothesis initially proposed when the research project phase of the possibility of understanding the compliance programs, when in compatibility with other global normative productions- including national and international orders, as law source applicable regarding the risks produced by systemic decisions of military uses of nanotechnology.