Contributing to the contentious debate on the relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth, I examine the role of theory-driven (non-)sustainable debt-ratios in combination with debt-ratio thresholds on economic growth. Based on both dynamic and non-dynamic panel data analyses in the euro area (EA) 12 countries over the period 1970-2013, I find that non-sustainable debt-ratios above and below the 60% threshold, have a detrimental effect on short-run economic growth, while sustainable debt-ratios below the 90% threshold exert a positive influence on short-run economic growth. In the long-run, both non-sustainable and sustainable debt-ratios above the 90% threshold, as well as non-sustainable debt-ratios below the 60% compromise economic growth. Robustness analysis supports these findings, and provides additional evidence of a positive effect of sustainable debt-ratios below the 60% threshold, as predicated by the Maastricht Treaty criterion, on (short- and long-run) economic growth. Overall, these results suggest that debt sustainability in addition to debt non-linearities should be considered simultaneously in the debt-growth nexus. In addition, the results indicate the importance of a timely reaction of fiscal policy in countries with non-sustainable debts, as implied by fiscal rules, in an attempt to ensure fiscal sustainability and, ultimately, promote long-run economic growth. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This diploma thesis surveys debt instruments used in OECD and European Union member countries for financing central government deficits and the techniques of selling government bonds. The volume and structure of the central government deficit and debt in the Czech Republic as well as organization of debt management office are subjected to a detailed analysis. Debt management accomplishments are confronted with the set out strategy and its objectives. The thesis also consists of the characteristics of securities in use (treasury bills, medium-term and long-term government bonds) as well as of legal regulations of auctions by which the securities are placed on the domestic market. An independent subchapter is dedicated to foreign issues of bonds.

In this work, I covered the sustainability of public finances in Greece, reachability of target values of debt to GDP ratio, analysis of impacts of the debt crisis in a political and social context, structure of the state budget and an evaluation of the implemented reforms. On the basis of technical publications, examples of debt crises in Asia and Latin America and recommendations from OECD, EC, NERV and IOBE I summarized the reform directions and steps to reach a sustainable state of public finances in Greece.

Europe is in the midst of its deepest crisis since the 1930s where unsustainable debt-to-GDP levels are among the most alarming issues. It is so critical that it is unsure if the Euro can be saved. The risk of moral hazard increases within EMU when governments are taking too much risk in their public debt policies due to the anticipation that ECB or other Member States would eventually bail them out. Moreover, the SGP imposes restrictions on government deficits and debts but have previously failed to enforce them. The weakness seen in the past is that no sanctions have been put in place once the limits have been breached and the SGP is therefore incredible. Previous research on common pool and debt spillovers in a monetary union point to an upward drift of public debt as countries join the EMU. Does this argument hold true? In order to find out, 25 OECD countries between the years of 1995 and 2010 are analyzed using System GMM Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond one-step estimator. The primary balance, the interest payments, and GDP growth are regressed respectively in order to see through what channel EMU displays its effect. One regression will cover the entire time period and another will only cover the years from 1995 to 2007 in order to isolate the effects of the current crisis. The results, based on the years over the entire time period (including the crisis) suggest that the effect of an EMU Membership goes via the Interest payments which it is connected to positively. By using the equation of debt dynamics, the fact that net debt interest payments are higher for a country within EMU indicates, all else equal, that they have on average higher levels of debt. Nevertheless, this realization might be a crisis phenomenon and the implication of this is not clear. However more importantly, the regressions based on the years of 1995 and 2007 (prior to the crisis) did not display any significant results. These results indicate that there is no significant relationship between a country’s membership in EMU and its level of debt prior to the crisis.

The government of Ghana borrows from both domestic and foreign sources to finance the budget deficit. By the year 2013, the domestic debt was 55% of the public debt. Government domestic borrowing is competitive and can potentially crowd out the private corporate sector. Therefore, the specific research problem addressed in this study was whether the Ghanaian government's domestic debt (DEBT) caused financial crowding out (FCO) in Ghana. FCO theory is not conclusive and not proven specifically for Ghana, so the purpose of this research was to investigate its presence in Ghana. The neoclassical theory of FCO underpinned the research. The 2 research questions investigated FCO along the quantity and cost channels. The research examined the relationship between DEBT as the independent variable, the quantity of private sector credit (PSCREDIT), and the net interest margin (NIM) of banks as dependent variables. Covariates were macroeconomic and banking industry variables. The research population was the banking sector of the financial services industry. The research was correlational, and it used time series data from the Bank of Ghana and the World Bank. Data analysis used the autoregressive distributed lag method. The analysis returned a negative relationship between DEBT and PSCREDIT, and a positve relationship between NIM and DEBT. These results indicated the presence of FCO along both the quantity and cost channels. The research provides policymakers a means of quantifying the extent and effects of fiscal policies. The study may contribute to positive social change by promoting the revision of fiscal policies to favor the private corporate sector to invest, create jobs, and grow the Ghanaian economy.

The dissertation thesis is considered with the development of capital markets in Austria before 1918. The Austrian capital market originated during the 18th century as the place for distribution of government securities. In 1771 the Vienna Stock Exchange was established as the first organized place for securities trading in the former Austrian Monarchy. The government securities remained the major investment instrument traded till 1918. In primary decades the Austrian capital market was nearly connected with the development of Austrian currency especially in times before the Austrian state bankruptcy in 1811 and then in times of the following effort of the Austrian government aiming the correction of Austrian currency. This aiming culminated in establishing of the Privileged Austrian National Bank as the first central bank in the former Austrian Monarchy. From about 1830 private securities were traded in the Vienna Stock Exchange as well. In primary decades these private securities were especially represented by equities and bonds of railway companies. The peak of private emissions related to the Austrian capital markets could be documented round 1870 in the framework of the so called founder times. These founder times were ended in Mai 1873 by the crisis on the Vienna Stock Exchange. After 1873 the Austrian capital market went back to the situation from the early 19th century, i.e. it can be seen the dominant role of government securities connected with the decrease of importance of the Austrian capital market as the place for company finance funding. After 1880 there is the origin of the very strong connection between the industrial companies on the one side and the banking sector on the other side which was typical not only for the former Austrian -- Hungarian Monarchy but also for German Empire and for other Middle European countries. The decrease of importance of the private securities was also caused by the nationalization of the Austrian railway companies after 1879. During the World War I the Vienna Stock Exchange as well as other stock exchange in the Monarchy was out of business. During this time the Austrian public debt was multiplied and the Austrian currency under strong inflation. After 1918 the Vienna Stock Exchange lost much from its former importance to the prejudice of the Prague Stock Exchange above all.

<p>The Swedish National Debt Office (SNDO) is the Swedish Government’s financial administration. It has several tasks and the main one is to manage the central government’s debt in a way that minimizes the cost with due regard to risk. The debt management problem is to choose currency composition and maturity profile - a problem made difficult because of the many stochastic factors involved. </p><p>The SNDO has created a simulation model to quantitatively analyze different aspects of this problem by evaluating a set of static strategies in a great number of simulated futures. This approach has a number of drawbacks, which might be handled by using a financial optimization approach based on Stochastic Programming. </p><p>The objective of this master’s thesis is thus to apply financial optimization on the Swedish government’s strategic debt management problem, using the SNDO’s simulation model to generate scenarios, and to evaluate this approach against a set of static strategies in fictitious future macroeconomic developments. </p><p>In this report we describe how the SNDO’s simulation model is used along with a clustering algorithm to form future scenarios, which are then used by an optimization model to find an optimal decision regarding the debt management problem. </p><p>Results of the evaluations show that our optimization approach is expected to have a lower average annual real cost, but with somewhat higher risk, than a set of static comparison strategies in a simulated future. These evaluation results are based on a risk preference set by ourselves, since the government has not expressed its risk preference quantitatively. We also conclude that financial optimization is applicable on the government debt management problem, although some work remains before the method can be incorporated into the strategic work of the SNDO.</p>

The Swedish National Debt Office (SNDO) is the Swedish Government’s financial administration. It has several tasks and the main one is to manage the central government’s debt in a way that minimizes the cost with due regard to risk. The debt management problem is to choose currency composition and maturity profile - a problem made difficult because of the many stochastic factors involved. The SNDO has created a simulation model to quantitatively analyze different aspects of this problem by evaluating a set of static strategies in a great number of simulated futures. This approach has a number of drawbacks, which might be handled by using a financial optimization approach based on Stochastic Programming. The objective of this master’s thesis is thus to apply financial optimization on the Swedish government’s strategic debt management problem, using the SNDO’s simulation model to generate scenarios, and to evaluate this approach against a set of static strategies in fictitious future macroeconomic developments. In this report we describe how the SNDO’s simulation model is used along with a clustering algorithm to form future scenarios, which are then used by an optimization model to find an optimal decision regarding the debt management problem. Results of the evaluations show that our optimization approach is expected to have a lower average annual real cost, but with somewhat higher risk, than a set of static comparison strategies in a simulated future. These evaluation results are based on a risk preference set by ourselves, since the government has not expressed its risk preference quantitatively. We also conclude that financial optimization is applicable on the government debt management problem, although some work remains before the method can be incorporated into the strategic work of the SNDO.

Esta tesis trata sobre cómo la autoridad fiscal debe fijar los impuestos distorsivos de manera óptima. El capítulo 1 analiza el problema de la política fiscal cuando el gobierno tiene un incentivo a hacer default con su deuda externa. El capítulo 2 trata sobre el problema de la política fiscal cuando los agentes no conocen cómo el gobierno fija las tasas impositivas. La principal conclusión que obtengo es que, en ambos contextos, el resultado de suavidad de las tasas, que es estándar en la literatura de imposición óptima, se rompe. Cuando los gobiernos no tienen una tecnología de compromiso, los impuestos responden a los incentivos de default; cuando los agentes poseen información parcial sobre el modelo subyacente de la economía, los impuestos dependen de sus expectativas sobre los mismos. / This thesis is about how fiscal authority should optimally set dissorting taxes. Chapter 1 deals with the optimal fiscal policy problem when the government has an incentive to default on external debt. Chapter 2 deals with the optimal fiscal policy problem when households do not know how government sets taxes. The main conclusion I get is that, in each of these two contexts, the tax smoothing result, which is the standars result in the optimal taxation literature, is broken. When governments do not have a commitment technology taxes respond to the incentives to default; when agents have partial information about the underlying economic model, taxes depend on their beliefs about it.

The defense spending plays a significant role in the decision-making process of setting up a defense policy. The economy of a state, its performance and development rank among the main factors that influence the size of this public expenditure. At a time of economic stagnation in the Western European countries, the ongoing public debt crisis affects to a ever growing extent all areas of public spending, including the defense. This work aims to contribute to the current knowledge in the field of defense economy and public finance by investigating the influence of the state debt on defense spending. The first part of the work is dedicated to defining the economy of defense and providing a brief summary of its historical development, followed by a discussion of defense as a pure public good. This chapter analyzes the issue of public debt and explains how the major schools of economic theory approach this problem. The second part outlines the previous research in the field of defense spending and debt, their development and the potential relationship with macroeconomic variables. The third chapter presents and discusses the results of empirical research that is based on the theoretical assumptions and models introduced in the first two chapters. The analysis was performed on time series from the period of 1978 to 2011 (34 years) for seven NATO member states: Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands, UK and USA. The empirical analysis was performed by the statistical methods of regression and panel regression. The primary hypothesis on the existence of a relationship between the public debt and defense spending was confirmed and the partial hypothesis that this relationship is negative was refuted.