No description available.

The study examines the effect of financial crises on international trade with a gravity approach and a large data set covering almost 70 importing and 200 exporting countries from 1950 to 2009. Thus it is possible to put the ‘Great Trade Collapse’ witnessed during the financial crisis 2008/2009, especially for South Asian countries, into a historical perspective. Both, the period for which the crisis is observed, and the level of the trading partners’ economic development constitute important factors to explain the negative effects of a banking crisis on international trade. As the analysis indicates, financial crises have a stronger negative effect on differentiated goods compared to overall export flows. In additionthe negative effects of financial crises persist even after the income effect is accounted for. The study therefore suggests that the increasing share of differentiated goods in inter-national trade might be one possible reason for the comparatively large effect of the recent financial crisis on international trade relative to previous financial turmoil in post-war economic history.

The goal of this thesis is to present a meta-analysis of studies that are focused on the relation between the international trade flow and the trade costs. The effect of trade costshasbecomeoneofthekeyelementstoresolvethesixmajor puzzles in the bilateral trade flow. I examine 1,090 estimates of the trade cost effect reported in 58 studies, codify 51 aspects of study design that may influencetheestimates.Iuse meta-regression analysis to investigate why trade costs effects vary. The results suggest that different methods and mainly data characteristics systematically affect the estimated trade costs effects. I find evidence for publication selection bias by using the appropriate tests. The authors of primary studies tend to report preferentially large estimates of the elasticity of trade with respect to trade costs. The evidence for publication selection bias is stronger for studies reported in peer-reviewed journals thanfor unpublished studies.

The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) is a unilateral trade liberalization program in which developed countries offer non-reciprocal tariff reductions (tariff preferences) on certain products imported from designated developing and least developed countries. GSP is considered an important tool in the World Trade Organization's approach to development. This dissertation--composed of three essays--explores whether low-income countries have achieved an increased access to high-income markets as a result of these non-reciprocal tariff preferences offered to their exports. The first essay provides an overview of the GSP program. The second essay presents an evaluation of the GSP program by considering the products and markets where low-income countries' exports are concentrated. Using a theoretically consistent gravity equation for primary and processed agri-food trade over the period 1962-2010, the results illustrate that the GSP program and modifications of it have delivered significant positive effects in developing countries' exports to developed country markets in agricultural trade but not necessarily so in non-agricultural goods. The third essay develops two theoretically founded novel indices to measure preference margins offered by high-income countries to low-income countries through tariff reduction. One index captures the restrictions bilateral tariff rates impose on market access conditions of a country as compared to the most favored nation rate, called the Exponential Trade Restrictiveness Index (ETRI). The other index captures the relative ease with which a country can access foreign markets compared to its competing suppliers, called the Exponential Relative Preferential Margin (ERPM). Then, these two bilateral indices are used to develop a model of sector-based bilateral trade to re-evaluate the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in terms of relative market access preferences. The results show that the GSP has increased relative market accessibility for low-income countries and in turn boosted exports from these countries by 26 to 28 percent. / Ph. D.

The gravity equation is probably the most important tool in international economics to explain and estimate trade flows. However, since the gravity equation is important for political decisions, it is very important to achieve reliable results from its empirical application. Thus, it is necessary to employ the gravity equation using a theoretically and empirically proper methodology. One important discussion addresses the implausibly high measures for the impact of trade cost proxies on exports that frequently appear, especially in older works. This problem became known as the "border puzzle" (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2001). The aim of the study is to contribute to the discussion about the suitability of the gravity equation's empirical applications. The basic idea is that trade costs between two countries could additionally depend on the exports between these two countries and not only on the (more or less) exogenous proxy variables for trade costs, as they are normally used. In this study, a new theory of endogenous trade costs is provided which shows that iceberg trade costs are likely to depend on exports. An interaction between exports and trade costs (or the gravity function and a trade cost function) leads to a simultaneity problem. Moreover, this theory can be confirmed after estimating the gravity equation with an alternative econometric strategy: A simultaneous equation system using a theory-based index to compensate for the directly immeasurable trade. A further target of the study is in its use of the comprehensive trade cost index to compute "multilateral resistances" of countries to trade, introduced in the trend-setting work by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). These multilateral resistances are necessary to retrieve unbiased results from empirical gravity equations. A methodology was developed to make the heretofore unknown index of multilateral resistances visible. The result of the simultaneity approach and the use of constructed data for bilateral and multilateral trade costs is that the estimated direct effects of variables influencing exports decrease. The proposed methodologies of this study could help to achieve more plausible and reliable results from the gravity equation as the "workhorse for empirical studies" (Eichengreen and Irwin, 1998) of international trade.

I model foreign trade among European countries by applying gravity equation model on panel data. The aim is to investigate exchange rate volatility impact on foreign trade and to test for the presence of the so-called Rose effect in relation to the Euro currency area. I develop a novel complex approach to the estimation of the gravity equation when the assumption of homogeneous reaction within the group of studied countries is relaxed. New methodology, tests and implementation is proposed. I develop several heuristic methods that permit effective clustering of countries in a selection of subgroups. The clustering process is iterative: in each step, countries are redistributed in new subgroups and the process is terminated, when no subsequent superior redistribution is possible. Finally, the effective selection of subgroups of countries is chosen to minimize an appropriately defined objective function. Results of the proposed heuristic tests suggest that no dominant method exists. Therefore, an algorithm of chaining of alternative heuristic methods is proposed. After the solution is achieved with one method, an alternative method is imposed and the search for the optimal solution continues, until the objective function reaches its minimum. The proposed methodology is applied to estimate the gravity equation of foreign trade with the extension that permits to assign countries into optimally selected subgroups using the newly introduced algorithms.

The study examines the effect of financial crises on international trade with a gravity approach and a large data set covering almost 70 importing and 200 exporting countries from 1950 to 2009. Thus it is possible to put the ‘Great Trade Collapse’ witnessed during the financial crisis 2008/2009, especially for South Asian countries, into a historical perspective. Both, the period for which the crisis is observed, and the level of the trading partners’ economic development constitute important factors to explain the negative effects of a banking crisis on international trade. As the analysis indicates, financial crises have a stronger negative effect on differentiated goods compared to overall export flows. In additionthe negative effects of financial crises persist even after the income effect is accounted for. The study therefore suggests that the increasing share of differentiated goods in inter-national trade might be one possible reason for the comparatively large effect of the recent financial crisis on international trade relative to previous financial turmoil in post-war economic history.

The gravity equation is probably the most important tool in international economics to explain and estimate trade flows. However, since the gravity equation is important for political decisions, it is very important to achieve reliable results from its empirical application. Thus, it is necessary to employ the gravity equation using a theoretically and empirically proper methodology. One important discussion addresses the implausibly high measures for the impact of trade cost proxies on exports that frequently appear, especially in older works. This problem became known as the "border puzzle" (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2001). The aim of the study is to contribute to the discussion about the suitability of the gravity equation's empirical applications. The basic idea is that trade costs between two countries could additionally depend on the exports between these two countries and not only on the (more or less) exogenous proxy variables for trade costs, as they are normally used. In this study, a new theory of endogenous trade costs is provided which shows that iceberg trade costs are likely to depend on exports. An interaction between exports and trade costs (or the gravity function and a trade cost function) leads to a simultaneity problem. Moreover, this theory can be confirmed after estimating the gravity equation with an alternative econometric strategy: A simultaneous equation system using a theory-based index to compensate for the directly immeasurable trade. A further target of the study is in its use of the comprehensive trade cost index to compute "multilateral resistances" of countries to trade, introduced in the trend-setting work by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). These multilateral resistances are necessary to retrieve unbiased results from empirical gravity equations. A methodology was developed to make the heretofore unknown index of multilateral resistances visible. The result of the simultaneity approach and the use of constructed data for bilateral and multilateral trade costs is that the estimated direct effects of variables influencing exports decrease. The proposed methodologies of this study could help to achieve more plausible and reliable results from the gravity equation as the "workhorse for empirical studies" (Eichengreen and Irwin, 1998) of international trade.

This thesis employs a random effects panel estimator to assess the relationship between Swedish outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stock and cultural distance for a panel of 75 countries covering the period 1998–2012. Cultural distance, operationalized by differences in Schwartz cultural orientations and gender equality, adds to the liability of foreignness and is hypothesized to have a negative impact on outward FDI stock. The theoretical underpinning for the hypothesis is based on a gravity model adapted to FDI, which shows that distance between countries reduces the amount of FDI that takes place between them. The results from the analysis provide partial support for the hypothesis as differences in some of Schwartz cultural orientations (harmony, embeddedness and egalitarianism) have a significant and negative effect on Swedish firms´ outward FDI stock. Moreover, differences in women´s economic rights are positively related to FDI, while no significant effects are found for differences in share of women in parliament.

Submitted by Marcos Ritel Franco Júnior (marcosritel@gmail.com) on 2016-04-13T20:51:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 679285 bytes, checksum: f12011f49419f56a55fe0863eb8eb086 (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Marcos, Favor alterar seu trabalho de acordo com as normas ABNT: 1 – a fonte padrão deve ser Times New Roman, tamanho 12. 2 – capa: O nome Getulio não tem acento. Favor arrumar em todas as páginas que constam o nome da Fundação. 3 – Agradecimentos: Deve constar em caixa alta (o título) e o texto deve estar formatado normalmente, sem o pulo de linhas. on 2016-04-14T14:06:14Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcos Ritel Franco Júnior (marcosritel@gmail.com) on 2016-04-14T18:10:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Marcos, Favor alterar o tamanho dos títulos para 12px. Caso esteja correto, favor mandar o arquivo em word por e-mail para que eu confira. Atenciosamente, Letícia Monteiro 3799-3631 leticia.dsouza@fgv.br on 2016-04-14T18:18:00Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcos Ritel Franco Júnior (marcosritel@gmail.com) on 2016-04-14T18:38:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br) on 2016-04-14T18:39:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-14T19:58:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-21 / This dissertation uses an empirical gravity equation approach to study the relationship between nonreciprocal trade agreements (NRTAs) and members’ trade flows. Estimations relate bilateral imports to trade policy variables using a very comprehensive dataset with over fifty years of data. Results show that meager average trade effects exist only if members are excluded from the world trading system or if they are very poor. As trade flows between NRTA members are already rising before their creation, results also suggest a strong endogeneity concerning their formation. Moreover, estimations show that uncertainty and discretion tend to critically hinder NRTA’s performance. On the other hand, reciprocal trade agreements show the opposite pattern regardless of members’ income status.Encouraging developing countries’ openness to trade through reciprocal liberalization emerges consequently as a possible policy implication. / Esta dissertação estuda a relação entre acordos comerciais não recíprocos e fluxos de comércio entre seus membros. Com o auxílio de equações de gravidade e uma base de dados bastante extensa, estimam-se regressões que permitem observar o impacto de variáveis de política comercial em fluxos bilaterais de comércio. Os resultados mostram que, em média, o impacto comercial de acordos não recíprocos é bastante modesto e se dá em apenas uma situação: quando exportadores estão excluídos do sistema multilateral de comércio. Esse quadro se mantém quando exportadores são alguns dos 'Least Developed Countries' definidos pela Organização das Nações Únidas. Nesse caso, entretanto, o impacto positivo do acordo é maior. Os resultados também sugerem a existência de forte endogeneidade na formação de acordos não recíprocos, uma vez que um aumento nos fluxos comerciais já é observável 10 anos antes da sua criação. Além disso, estimações indicam que incerteza e arbítrio são pontos fundamentais que atrapalham o seu desempenho. Por outro lado, acordos recíprocos de comércio apresentam efeitos positivos e bastante fortes independente do nível de riqueza de seus membros. Encorajar o envolvimento de países em desenvolvimento em liberalizações recíprocas surge então como uma possível recomendação de política.