MENVSC / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / See the attached abstract below

Thesis (M.Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / Water is a precious natural resource and one of the most vital substance for sustainability of life . The increase in water evaporation is a major prob lem where factors such as high temperature and minimum rainfall are the contributing factors. The aim of the study was to perform time series mod elling of water evaporation from the selected dams in the Limpopo province South Africa. A daily evaporation time series data was used in the study with variables such as temperature and rainfall. Daily water evaporation rate time series data was differenced to make the data series stationary and Dickey-Fuller test was used to test the stationarity of the data series. The Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Au toregressive Conditional Heteroskasticity (GARCH) model was performed on the water evaporation time series data from the selected dams. Vec tor Autoregression (VAR) was used to determine the relationship between the variables evaporation, rainfall and temperature. Identification of time series models was done using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best ARIMA models were selected based on the autocor relation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and the smallest value of Bayseian Information (BIC). The best models selected for each dam are: Mokolo dam, ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model; Ga-Rantho dam, ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model; Leeukraal DeHoop dam, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model and Luphephe dam, ARIMA (2, 1, 3) model. The correlation coefficient, coefficient of determinant (R2 ) and root mean square (RMSE) were used to determine the performance of the model. The water evaporation time series data from the selected dams was forecasted using the best selected ARIMA models from the selected dams and then predicted for the next 3 years, where the results showed a positive constant water evaporation rate.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Several areas in Namaqualand are affected by elevated levels of salinity; including the shallow alluvial aquifers along the Buffels River catchment. The chemistry of rainwater that recharges these aquifers has low salt-loads, but the groundwater system is very saline. The shallow alluvial aquifers are an important source of water for several communal areas along the river both for domestic and agricultural purposes. Groundwater is also used for the copper and diamond mining activities along the river. Prior to this study, the sources of salinity to the alluvial aquifers and whether salinity can be remediated has not been determined. Possible salinity sources included seawater intrusion, evaporitic salts dissolution, concentrations by evaporation, deep aquifer brines, dissolution of minerals from the aquifer geology as well as salts from anthropogenic activities (i.e. mining). The source(s) of salinity to the groundwater has been determined using the geochemical as well as the isotopic tracers. The ratios of major ions (i.e. Na/Cl) as well the oxygen (18O), hydrogen (2H), 36Cl/Cl, and 87Sr/86Sr isotopes were used in determining the possible solute sources. In addition to these, the chloride mass balance (CMB) method was used to determine the recharge rates to the alluvial aquifers. Furthermore, the groundwater age of the alluvial aquifers was determined using the tritium (3H) isotope. The groundwater samples have high 87Sr/86Sr ratios, which are in the same ranges as the 87Sr/86Sr ratios in the surrounding granitic rocks indicating water-rock interactions. The 36Cl/Cl ratios are low and indicate the dissolution of old salts. The 18O and 2H stable isotopes of groundwater show an evaporative trend with respect to the LMWL, which indicate that groundwater has been evaporated before or during infiltration. Salinity to the shallow alluvial aquifers was found to be mainly derived from the dissolution of rock mass and concentration by evaporation process. The groundwater is relatively young, but there is mixing between old water recharged prior to bomb testing and recently recharged groundwater in some boreholes. The Chloride mass balance (CMB) method assumes atmospheric chloride is the only source of chloride to the aquifers. However, there is additional chloride to these alluvial aquifers from rock mass dissolution. The estimated recharge rates by CMB method (0.1-3.4mm/a) are therefore underestimated. A simulation model was used to determine the recharge rates based on the annual precipitation that will yield the current measured chloride concentrations in the groundwater. Recharge was found to range from 1-5% of the annual precipitation, which is also low. The CMB method therefore gives significant recharge rate estimates, but they are not accurate and need to be supported by another method. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar.

The Table Mountain group aquifer system has the potential to be an important supply of water. Although the aquifer system is used to some extent, a number of aspects relating to the aquifer system are poorly understood and unquantified. This study aimed to take into consideration the importance of differenct ecosytems, which is essential in predicting the effects of groundwater abstruction. However, the ecological requirements of systems that depend on groundwater are poorly understood. This project identified &quot / type areas&quot / for further detailed research into the impacts of large-scale groundwater abstraction from the Table Mountain group aquifer system based on the nature and functioning of ecosystems across groundwater dependent ecosystem boundaries of a regional scale.

The Table Mountain group aquifer system has the potential to be an important supply of water. Although the aquifer system is used to some extent, a number of aspects relating to the aquifer system are poorly understood and unquantified. This study aimed to take into consideration the importance of differenct ecosytems, which is essential in predicting the effects of groundwater abstruction. However, the ecological requirements of systems that depend on groundwater are poorly understood. This project identified &quot / type areas&quot / for further detailed research into the impacts of large-scale groundwater abstraction from the Table Mountain group aquifer system based on the nature and functioning of ecosystems across groundwater dependent ecosystem boundaries of a regional scale.

Thesis (MSc (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / Since mechanised borehole drilling began in South Africa in the late 1800s, over 1 100 000 boreholes have been drilled. As the country’s growing population and the perceived impacts of climate change increase pressure on water surface supplies, attention is turning to groundwater to meet the shortfall in water supply. This will mean even more drilling will take place. Until the introduction of the Standard Descriptors for Boreholes, published in 2003, South Africa has not had a set of guidelines for borehole information capture. This document provides a detailed description of the basic information requirements needed to describe and characterise the process of drilling, constructing, developing, managing and monitoring a borehole. However, this document stands alone as a specification with little or no implementation or interpretation to date. Following the development and publishing of the ArcHydro data model for water resource management by the CRWR based at the University of Texas at Austin, there has been a great deal of interest in object-oriented data modelling for natural resource data management. This thesis describes the utilisation of an object oriented data modelling approach using UML CASE tools to design a data model for South African Boreholes, based on the Standard Descriptors for Boreholes. The data model was converted to a geodatabase schema and implemented in ArcGIS.

The connections between surface water and groundwater systems remain poorly understood in many catchments throughout the world and yet they are fundamental to effectively managing water resources. Managing water resources in an integrated manner is not straightforward, particularly if both resources are being utilised, and especially in those regions that suffer problems of data scarcity. This study explores some of the principle issues associated with understanding and practically modelling surface and groundwater interactions. In South Africa, there remains much controversy over the most appropriate type of integrated model to be used and the way forward in terms of the development of the discipline; part of the disagreement stems from the fact that we cannot validate models adequately. This is largely due to traditional forms of model testing having limited power as it is difficult to differentiate between the uncertainties within different model structures, different sets of alternative parameter values and in the input data used to run the model. While model structural uncertainties are important to consider, the uncertainty from input data error together with parameter estimation error are often more significant to the overall residual error, and essential to consider if we want to achieve reliable predictions for water resource decisions. While new philosophies and theories on modelling and results validation have been developed (Beven, 2002; Gupta et al., 2008), in many cases models are not only still being validated and compared using sparse and uncertain datasets, but also expected to produce reliable predictions based on the flawed data. The approach in this study is focused on fundamental understanding of hydrological systems rather than calibration based modelling and promotes the use of all the available 'hard' and 'soft' data together with thoughtful conceptual examination of the processes occurring in an environment to ensure as far as possible that a model is generating sensible results by simulating the correct processes. The first part of the thesis focuses on characterising the 'typical' interaction environments found in South Africa. It was found that many traditional perceptual models are not necessarily applicable to South African conditions, largely due to the relative importance of unsaturated zone processes and the complexity of the dominantly fractured rock environments. The interaction environments were categorised into four main 'types' of environment. These include karst, primary, fractured rock (secondary), and alluvial environments. Processes critical to Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) were defined within each interaction type as a guideline to setting a model up to realistically represent the dominant processes in the respective settings. The second part of the thesis addressed the application and evaluation of the modified Pitman model (Hughes, 2004), which allows for surface and groundwater interaction behaviour at the catchment scale to be simulated. The issue is whether, given the different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process, we can differentiate one conceptual flow path from another in trying to refine the understanding and consequently have more faith in model predictions. Seven example catchments were selected from around South Africa to assess whether reliable integrated assessments can be carried out given the existing data. Specific catchment perceptual models were used to identify the critical processes occurring in each setting and the Pitman model was assessed on whether it could represent them (structural uncertainty). The available knowledge of specific environments or catchments was then examined in an attempt to resolve the parameter uncertainty present within each catchment and ensure the subsequent model setup was correctly representing the process understanding as far as possible. The confidence in the quantitative results inevitably varied with the amount and quality of the data available. While the model was deemed to be robust based on the behavioural results obtained in the majority of the case studies, in many cases a quantitative validation of the outputs was just not possible based on the available data. In these cases, the model was judged on its ability to represent the conceptualisation of the processes occurring in the catchments. While the lack of appropriate data means there will always be considerable uncertainty surrounding model validation, it can be argued that improved process understanding in an environment can be used to validate model outcomes to a degree, by assessing whether a model is getting the right results for the right reasons. Many water resource decisions are still made without adequate account being taken of the uncertainties inherent in assessing the response of hydrological systems. Certainly, with all the possible sources of uncertainty in a data scarce country such as South Africa, pure calibration based modelling is unlikely to produce reliable information for water resource managers as it can produce the right results for the wrong reasons. Thus it becomes essential to incorporate conceptual thinking into the modelling process, so that at the very least we are able to conclude that a model generates estimates that are consistent with, and reflect, our understanding (however limited) of the catchment processes. It is fairly clear that achieving the optimum model of a hydrological system may be fraught with difficulty, if not impossible. This makes it very difficult from a practitioner's point of view to decide which model and uncertainty estimation method to use. According to Beven (2009), this may be a transitional problem and in the future it may become clearer as we learn more about how to estimate the uncertainties associated with hydrological systems. Until then, a better understanding of the fundamental and most critical hydrogeological processes should be used to critically test and improve model predictions as far as possible. A major focus of the study was to identify whether the modified Pitman model could provide a practical tool for water resource managers by reliably determining the available water resource. The incorporation of surface and groundwater interaction routines seems to have resulted in a more robust and realistic model of basin hydrology. The overall conclusion is that the model, although simplified, is capable of representing the catchment scale processes that occur under most South African conditions.

MESMEG / Department of Mining and Environmental Geology / See the attached abstract below

MESHWR / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / See the attached abstract below

MESMEG / Department of Mining and Environmental Geology / This dissertation focused on the assessment of borehole yields within the Nzhelele- Makhado area, which is located in the northern part of South Africa within the Vhembe District Municipality of Limpopo Province. The aim of the study was to identify factors that influence the yields of water supply boreholes within the study area. This information will be used to improve the groundwater resource knowledge required in assessing the potential of groundwater resources in augmenting the Nzhelele Regional Water Supply Scheme. The study area is mostly underlain by the ‘hard rock’ formations of the Soutpansberg Group, which practically has no primary porosity. The groundwater is residing mainly within the weathered and fractured or discontinuities, considered being secondary porosities. Due to the complexity of the underlying fractured and hard rock aquifer systems and the fact that most of the boreholes drilled in the area were not scientifically sited, the study area is dominated by very low yielding boreholes. Majority (48%) of the boreholes were drilled into the Nzhelele formation due to the fact that it occupies the central, relatively flat and low lying sections of the study area. The variations in average yields in boreholes drilled in different formations within the study area is relatively low suggesting that the difference in lithology of different formations do not to have any major influence in the yields of boreholes. The topographical settings of the area do not have any influence in the borehole drilling depths and yields. The high borehole yields in shallow boreholes located in mountainous areas is due to local groundwater systems, which recharges and discharges locally. Mapped lineaments are slightly low yielding (average yield of 0.32 l/s) compared to the faults (average yield of 0.43 l/s) within the study area. Boreholes drilled along the NE-SW trending lineaments support double the yields (0.41 l/s) on average of those along the SE-NW (0.28 l/s) and W-E (0.20 l/s) trending lineaments. The high yields in boreholes closer to non-perennial streams compared to perennial rivers is due to the fact that non-perennial streams are comprised of thick layer of overburden capable of supporting high yielding boreholes, whereas the overburden along the perennial rivers are washed away during rainy season leaving bedrock exposed or covered with thin layer of sediments. The proximity to the young faults trending SE-NW and dry non-perennial streams has proved to be the most the favourable areas for development of high yielding boreholes in the study area, compared to lithological difference and topographical settings of the area. However, it should be noted that there are no simple relationship between various factors that control the yield of the boreholes in the area. Despite the similarities in some factors that influence borehole productivity on a regional scale such as faults and drainage systems, the complexity of the weathered-fractured aquifer system suggests an over-riding influence of local features, which results in significant variations in yield and response to abstraction. / NRF