Magister Legum - LLM / The research will evaluate and discuss the importance of Deposit Insurance Systems (DIS) and the necessity of having this system. Important to the evaluation is an analytical consideration of how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the National Treasury (NT) and other global financial bodies proposed the approach thereof. Insofar as most jurisdictions had already adopted the DIS as encouraged by the international financial institutions, the study shall determine whether it is plausible for South Africa to derive guidance in her approach taking into account the potential risks posed by the safety-net.

La presente investigación se centra en la generación de mapas de peligro por la simulación del vertido de relaves por rotura de la presa del depósito de relaves en estado pulpa ubicada en el distrito de Chocó, en Colombia mediante un modelo hidrológico – hidráulico, y la posterior clasificación de los mapas de inundación y velocidad en niveles de peligrosidad. Este tipo de simulaciones requieren de un modelo numérico capaz de analizar y desarrollar el comportamiento de un flujo hiperconcentrado en la llanura de inundación aguas abajo. Las ecuaciones que controlan el movimiento de estos tipos de flujos son las aplicadas para fluidos no newtonianos, los cuales están controlados por los parámetros reológicos, como: viscosidad dinámica, esfuerzo de fluencia y la tasa de corte. Es por ello que se ha escogido el software FLO-2D el cual cuenta con facilidad de ingreso de datos y geometría, estabilidad de rutina computacional y la facilidad de lectura de archivos de salida. Los resultados obtenidos de la simulación en el distrito de Chocó muestran de manera didáctica la delimitación de zonas de riesgo de acuerdo a la clasificación de peligro en torno a velocidades y tirantes máximos. Eso nos permitió reconocer las estructuras que comprendidas en las zonas de alto riesgo. Estos mapas de peligro servirán como herramientas para evaluaciones de alcance social, ambiental y económico y la consideración y elección de medidas a corto, mediano y largo plazo, y de carácter tanto estructural, como no estructural. / This research focuses on the generation of hazard maps by simulating the discharge of tailings due to breakage of the dam of the pulp tailings deposit located in the Chocó district, in Colombia, using a hydrological-hydraulic model, and the subsequent classification of the flood and speed maps in danger levels. These types of simulations require a numerical model capable of analyzing and developing the behavior of a hyperconcentrated flow in the downstream floodplain. The equations that control the movement of these types of flows are those applied for non-Newtonian fluids, which are controlled by the rheological parameters, such as: dynamic viscosity, creep stress and the shear rate. That is why the FLO-2D software has been chosen which has ease of data entry and geometry, computational routine stability and ease of reading output files. The results obtained from the simulation in the Chocó district didactically show the delimitation of risk areas according to the hazard classification around maximum speeds and braces. This allowed us to recognize the structures included in high risk areas. These hazard maps will serve as tools for evaluations of social, environmental and economic scope and the consideration and choice of short, medium and long-term measures, both structural and non-structural. / Tesis

This dissertation explores the role of information frictions in the design of financial securities, the pricing of securities, and their business cycle implications. The first essay studies the risk- shifting problem between bondholders and shareholders, and the moral hazard problem between shareholders and the manager. Although, these two problems have been studied separately, my model is the first tractable frame-work to study these two frictions jointly. Using my model, I explore: i) How the presence of managerial moral hazard affects the risk-shifting problem, and ii) How optimal policies of the firm change in terms of leverage, managerial compensation, and investment decisions when the two problems are considered jointly. I show that the optimal amount of risk-shifting is amplified in the presence of managerial moral hazard. Moreover, my model delivers a non-monotonic relation between risk-shifting and leverage. This non-monotonicity has the potential to reconcile seemingly contradictory empirical evidence on the sign of this relation. The second essay (coauthored with Jianjun Miao) studies the design of an optimal contract for the manager when the shareholders are concerned about model misspecification. The model delivers counter-cyclical firm level equity premium, and has interesting implications for security design. The third essay incorporates accounting practices into models that generate business cycles through borrowing constraints. I show that the interaction of accounting frictions with the borrowing constraint has implications for the persistence and amplification of macroeconomic shocks.

Achieving sustained economic growth and development has been an area of concern for policy-makers in the Anglophone Caribbean since the transition from colonial rule to self-governance. To date, the researcher did not find any research that has explicitly examined the role of policy-making effectiveness as a strategy for achieving the goals of sustainable development. This qualitative multiple case study of Barbados and Grenada was conceptualized from the perspective of critical theory from the World Commission on Environment and Development to explore and understand why sustainability has not been sufficiently realized and how sustainable development may be pursued in territories that are small and prone to hazards. Purposive sampling was used to identify 30 candidates for the study. Eighteen key policy-makers participated in semi-structured interviews. Secondary data from publicly available government documents in Barbados and Grenada were acquired. All data were inductively coded and data analysis was carried out at three levels using thematic, content, and cross-case analyses. Key findings suggest a need exists to increase understanding of the concept of sustainable development and the unique characteristics of the territories to enable policy-makers to better define the safe operating space for human development. Recommendations for positive social change include advice to strengthen institutional capacity across the full spectrum of policy-making practice for sustainable development including mechanisms to promote a learning culture and accountability in policy-making practice in the Anglophone Caribbean, particularly among those territories that are small and prone to hazards.

This thesis examined how cross-country skiers perceive and prepare for winter hazards. A self-completion questionnaire was administered to cross-country skiers in northern Utah. The questions on the questionnaire were designed to explore the relationships that affect how skiers perceive and prepare for winter hazards. Additionally, the situation where skiers put themselves at risk due to lack of information as opposed to skiers placing themselves at risk through the desire to confront nature's dangers was explored. Variables that were contained in these relationships were correlated and the degree of correlation was measured. Those that sought information on the day surveyed were more likely to perceive and prepare for winter hazards than those that didn't seek information. Additionally, experienced skiers were more likely to perceive and prepare for winter hazards. However, experienced skiers were more likely to be involved in other risk recreation activities and to consider risk important in their ski experience than less experienced skiers. Skiers that believed skiing to be central to their life interests were more likely to seek avalanche hazard information and be more prepared than those that didn't seek avalanche information. Results suggest more research is needed to determine the most effective techniques of disseminating hazard information to cross-country skiers. Moreover, different survey techniques, such as naturalistic inquiries, should be used to extract hazard perception and preparation information from skiers.

Wildfire hazard is increasing in much of the United States, posing a threat to human communities and natural ecosystem services, especially in areas at the wildland-urban interface. There are steps people can take to reduce wildfire hazard, but often they are not used. Understanding and addressing human perceptions of wildfire risk and of risk-mitigating behaviors requires knowledge of both social and ecological systems. To better understand this complex issue, three types of factors must be addressed: social, cultural, demographic, and biophysical. This dissertation incorporates these three essential factors to intensively investigate the risk perception and behaviors of residents living in wildland-urban interface communities in three states (Arizona, California, and New Mexico). The first study examines the effect that individual risk perceptions have on intention to mitigate wildfire risk by integrating two social-psychological theories, Theory of Planned Behavior and Cultural Theory, to investigate the causal relationship and motivational factors that influence the intention to mitigate wildfire hazard. Results suggest that attitudes toward wildfire mitigation practices and perceived behavioral control play a significant role in the decision process. The effect of an individual’s orientation toward nature is mediated by attitude and perceived behavioral control. It is important that these orientations are taken into consideration when designing strategies to increase incentives to mitigate fire risk. The second study explores the linkage between property owners’ perception of risk and scientifically measurable wildfire risks that vary across hazard zones in the three study locations. Individuals’ perceptions of wildfire can be substantially different from each other and from reality. This study proposes that the perception of risk is formed in a multistage process (individual and community level). Results show that homeowners’ worldview with respect to nature, length of residency, place-based influence, and attitudes about risk factors all are significant predictors for how residents of fire-prone areas perceive their risks. The variance in social and physical vulnerability associated with wildfire can explain, to a certain extent, the variation in individual perceptions of wildfire risk. The perception of risk is consistent with the level of exposure to fire hazards. The third study investigates spatial relationships among social and ecological factors on private property. The biophysical characteristics of individual properties were extracted to observe wildfire risk and incorporated with information about social context from mail surveys. Results demonstrate that mitigation behaviors in the three study communities illustrate a spatial clustering pattern. Moreover, orientations toward nature and physical attributes of property had an impact on decisions to undertake mitigation behaviors.

A new model developed for the entire bathtub-shaped hazard rate curve has been evaluated as to its usefulness as a method of reliability estimation. The model is of the form: F(t) = 1 - exp - (ϴ1tL + ϴ2t + ϴ3tM) where "L" and "M" were assumed known. The estimate of reliability obtained from the new model was compared with the traditional restricted sample estimate for four different time intervals and was found to have less bias and variance for all time points. The was a monte carlo study and the data generated showed that the new model has much potential as a method for estimating reliability. (51 pages)

LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation data were collected in the Panther Creek Watershed, Yamhill County, Oregon in September and December, 2007, March, 2009 and March, 2010. LiDAR derived images from the March, 2009 dataset were used to map pre-historic, historic, and active landslides. Each mapped landslide was characterized as to type of movement, head scarp height, slope, failure depth, relative age, and direction. A total of 153 landslides were mapped and 81% were field checked in the study area. The majority of the landslide deposits (127 landslides) appear to have had movement in the past 150 years. Failures occur on slopes with a mean estimated pre-failure slope of 27° ± 8°. Depth to failure surfaces for shallow-seated landslides ranged from 0.75 m to 4.3 m, with an average of 2.9 m ± 0.8 m, and depth to failure surfaces for deep-seated landslides ranged from 5 m to 75m, with an average of 18 m ± 14 m. Earth flows are the most common slope process with 110 failures, comprising nearly three quarters (71%) of all mapped deposits. Elevation changes from two of the successive LiDAR data sets (December, 2007 and March, 2009) were examined to locate active landslides that occurred between the collections of the LiDAR imagery. The LiDAR-derived DEMs were subtracted from each other resulting in a differential dataset to examine changes in ground elevation. Areas with significant elevation changes were identified as potentially active landslides. Twenty-six landslides are considered active based upon differential LiDAR and field observations. Different models are used to estimate landslide susceptibility based upon landslide failure depth. Shallow-seated landslides are defined in this study as having a failure depth equal to less than 4.6 m (15 ft). Results of the shallow-seated susceptibility map show that the high susceptibility zone covers 35% and the moderate susceptibility zone covers 49% of the study area. Due to the high number of deep-seated landslides (58 landslides), a deep-seated susceptibility map was also created. Results of the deep-seated susceptibility map show that the high susceptibility zone covers 38% of the study area and the moderate susceptibility zone covers 43%. The results of this study include a detailed landslide inventory including pre-historic, historic, and active landslides and a set of susceptibility maps identifying areas of potential future landslides.

The master’s thesis discusses siphon pipes that are used to collect groundwater. The goal of work is to define the most frequent undesired events that may appear on siphon pipes, and verifying the individual springs. The work is addressed in accordance with the metodology of risk analysis WaterRisk. The content of the work is a summary of the hydraulic of siphon pipes and their use in practice, hazard identification, defining the most frequent undesired events and consequences on siphon pipes, and their verification in the spring in a particular case study.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18563号 / 工博第3924号 / 新制||工||1603(附属図書館) / 31463 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 藤田 正治, 教授 中川 一, 准教授 竹林 洋史 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM