This master’s thesis examines the relationship between emergency management planning and comprehensive land use planning. The incorporation of emergency management practices into the comprehensive planning process allows for a better understanding of the impact of development, zoning, building code, and economic development on the mitigation of hazards that face the community. Academic curricula may provide a brief introduction of the relationship between hazard mitigation and land use; however, a more detailed exploration of how emergency management planning and regional or urban planning are interrelated is needed. The impact of weather-related events, natural disasters, or other human-caused shock or disruption can dramatically impact the physical, social, and psychological structures of a community. This research provides regional planners with the history of emergency management planning in the United States. It examines how cross-sharing of information and process between both planning disciplines can contribute to more robust community development and disaster plans. A case study illustrates the impact of urban development on natural hazard mitigation and the subsequent risks to public safety, which resulted from the planning decisions. Place identity, place dependence, and public participation concerning hazard mitigation and disaster management are explored to provide planners and emergency managers with a context of the psychological influences which may impact a community member’s decisions when faced with significant disruption of place. Best practices that guide the integration of regional planning and emergency management planning are provided to increase the understanding of both planning processes to increase the capacity of a community to absorb and rebound from a natural disaster or sudden shock.

[pt] Nesse artigo, fornecemos evidências de que as informações sobre a infraestrutura de mitigação de riscos nos Estados Unidos (EUA) durante uma exposição indireta a ciclones tropicais e a própria exposição indireta a ciclones tropicais geram anomalias nos retornos após considerar os 5 fatores FamaFrench e momentum. Formulamos duas hipóteses possíveis para explicar essas anomalias: hipótese do investidor local e hipótese do investor geral. Ambas as hipóteses assumem que os investimentos em mitigação de riscos são inferiores ao ideal. Sua diferença é baseada em como os investidores interpretam os programas de mitigação de riscos. Na hipótese do investidor local, Nós nos concentramos nas percepções dos investidores locais sobre os programas. Investimentos mais significativos nesses programas significam que mais investidores locais irão reconhecê-los e conhecer suas falhas. Por outro lado, na hipótese do investor geral, nos concentramos nas associações que os investidores gerais fazem entre o nível de investimento em mitigação de perigos e o risco de desastres. No final, damos algumas evidências da hipótese dos investidores locais, mas não podemos garantir que essa seja a única explicação possível. A questão toda depende de quanto os investidores sabem sobre os programas de mitigação de riscos. Além disso, evidenciamos que um canal de informação é o provável caminho pelo qual as anomalias são geradas. Assim, nesta dissertação, lançamos alguma luz sobre a incerteza gerada pelos desastres naturais que precificam os ativos, um tema que recebe mais atenção em um mundo em aquecimento. / [en] In this paper, we provide evidence that information about hazard mitigation infrastructure in the United States (U.S.) during an indirect exposure to tropical cyclones and the indirect exposure to tropical cyclones per se generate anomalies in returns after considering the 5 Fama-French factors and momentum. We formulate two possible hypotheses to explain these anomalies: local investor and general market hypotheses. Both hypotheses assume that hazard mitigation investments are lower than the ideal. Their difference is based on how investors interpret the hazard mitigation programs. We focus on local investors perceptions about them in the local investor hypothesis. More significant investments in these programs mean more local investors will acknowledge them and their flaws. On the other hand, we focus on general investors associations between hazard mitigation investment level and disaster risk in the general market hypothesis. In the end, we give some evidence of the local investors hypothesis, but we cannot guarantee that this is the only possible explanation. The whole point depends on how much investors know about hazard mitigation programs. Beyond that, we give evidence that an information channel is the probable path in which the anomalies are generated. Thus, in this dissertation, we shed some light on the uncertainty generated by natural disasters that prices assets, a topic that gets more attention in a warming world.

Earthquake engineering is increasingly focusing on large international collaborations to address complex problems. Recent computing advances have greatly contributed to the way scientific collaborations are conducted, where web-based solutions are an emerging trend to manage and present results to the scientific community and the general public. However, collaborations in earthquake engineering lack a common interoperability framework, resulting in tedious and complex processes to integrate results, which cannot be efficiently used by third-party institutions. The work described in this thesis applies novel computing techniques to enable the interoperability of earthquake engineering resources, by integrating data, distributed simulation services and laboratory facilities. This integration focuses on distributed approaches rather than centralised solutions, and has been materialised in a platform called Celestina, that supports the integration of hazard mitigation resources. The prototype of Celestina has been implemented and validated within the context of two of the current largest earthquake engineering networks, the SERIES network in Europe and the NEES network in the USA. It has been divided into three sub-systems to address different problems: (i) Celestina Data, to develop best methods to define, store, integrate and share earthquake engineering experimental data. Celestina Data uses a novel approach based on Semantic Web technologies, and it has accomplished the first data integration between earthquake engineering institutions from the United States and Europe by means of a formalised infrastructure. (ii) Celestina Tools, to research applications that can be implemented on top of the data integration, in order to provide a practical benefit for the end user. (iii) Celestina Simulations, to create the most efficient methods to integrate distributed testing software and to support the planning, definition and execution of the experimental workflow from a high-level perspective. Celestina Simulations has been implemented and validated by conducting distributed simulations between the Universities of Oxford and Kassel. Such validation has demonstrated the feasibility to conduct both flexible, general-purpose and high performance simulations under the framework. Celestina has enabled global analysis of data requirements for the whole community, the definition of global policies for data authorship, curation and preservation, more efficient use of efforts and funding, more accurate decision support systems and more efficient sharing and evaluation of data results in scientific articles.

Sustainable development is achieved through the equal promotion of environmental protection, economic development and social equity. Urban planners play a key role in sustainable development through the mediation of tensions inherent between these priorities. Using urban planning theory that focuses on the conflicts between the priorities of sustainable development and lessons learned from planning practice provides a basis from which to evaluate the claims of sustainability present in the Greater New Orleans Urban Water Plan. Outreach initiatives, policy frameworks and ecosystem co-management are suggested to make the planning and implementation processes of the Greater New Orleans Urban Water Plan more feasible in terms of its ability to foster sustainability. Additionally, conceptualizing integrated stormwater management for Greater New Orleans within the context of the Louisiana coastal crisis can help to make the goals of the Urban Water Plan more realistic in the long term and boost institutional capacity to promote regional resilience.

This study examines ten major storms that have affected Louisiana in the last fifty years, beginning with Hurricane Betsy in 1965. The goal is to determine if the nine coastal parishes are prepared adequately for another major hurricane impact. It examines storms that have affected the state physically, in terms of property and ecological damages. It also considers storms that provided non-physical influences, by way of mitigation policy changes and social, economical, ecological, and political policy alterations. The main focus is on the transformations, if any, of social vulnerability in light of emergency preparedness in the areas impacted, particularly along the Louisiana coast. I argue that, while the State has come a long way, Louisiana is not currently prepared adequately to handle another major storm by 2015. Furthermore, I offer recommendations for improvement in preparedness measures for the future.

The process of modeling earthquake hazard risk and vulnerability is a prime component of mitigation planning, but is rife with epistemic, aleatory and factual uncertainty. Reducing uncertainty in such models yields significant benefits, both in terms of extending knowledge and increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of mitigation planning. An accurate description of the built environment as an input into loss estimation would reduce factual uncertainty in the modeling process. Building attributes for earthquake loss estimation and risk assessment modeling were identified. Three modules for developing the building attributes were proposed, including structure classification, building footprint recognition and building valuation. Data from primary sources and field surveys were collected from Shelby County, Tennessee, for calibration and validation of the structure type models and for estimation of various components of building value. Building footprint libraries were generated for implementation of algorithms to programmatically recognize two-dimensional building configurations. The modules were implemented to produce a building inventory for Shelby County, Tennessee that may be used effectively in loss estimation modeling. Validation of the building inventory demonstrates effectively that advanced technologies and methods may be effectively and innovatively applied on combinations of primary and derived data and replicated in order to produce a bottom-up, reliable, accurate and cost-effective building inventory.

<div>Accurate prediction of electricity demand is a critical step in balancing the grid. Many factors influence electricity demand. Among these factors, climate variability has been the most pressing one in recent times, challenging the resilient operation of the grid, especially during climatic extremes. In this dissertation, fundamental challenges related to accurate characterization of the climate-energy nexus are presented in Chapters 2--4, as described below. </div><div><br></div><div>Chapter 2 explores the cost of neglecting the role of humidity in predicting summer-time residential electricity consumption. Analysis of electricity demand in the CONUS region demonstrates that even though surface temperature---the most widely used metric for characterising heat stress---is an important factor, it is not sufficient for accurately characterizing cooling demand. The chapter proceeds to show significant underestimations of the climate sensitivity of demand, both in the observational space as well as under climate change. Specifically, the analysis reveals underestimations as high as 10-15% across CONUS, especially in high energy consuming states such as California and Texas. </div><div><br></div><div>Chapter 3 takes a critical look at one of the most widely used metrics, namely, the Cooling Degree Days (CDD), often calculated with an arbitrary set point temperature of 65F or 18.3C, ignoring possible variations due to different patterns of electricity consumption across different regions and climate zones. In this chapter, updated values are derived based on historical electricity consumption data across the country at the state level. Chapter 3 analysis demonstrates significant variation, as high as +-25%, between derived set point variables and the conventional value of 65F. Moreover, the CDD calculation is extended to account for the role of humidity, in the light of lessons learnt in the previous chapter. Our results reveal that under climate change scenarios, the air-temperature based CDD underestimates thermal comfort by as much as ~22%.</div><div><br></div><div>The predictive analytics conducted in Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 revealed a significant challenge in characterizing the climate-demand nexuses: the ability to capture the variability at the upper tails. Chapter 4 explores this specific challenge, with the specific goal of developing an algorithm to increase prediction accuracy at the higher quantiles of the demand distributions. Specifically, Chapter 4 presents a data-centric approach at the utility level (as opposed to the state-level analyses in the previous chapters), focusing on high-energy consuming states of California and Texas. The developed algorithm shows a general improvement of 7% in the mean prediction accuracy and an improvement of 15% for the 90th quantile predictions.</div>

Events or forces of nature with catastrophic consequences, or "natural disasters," have increased in both frequency and force due to climate change and increased urbanization in climate-sensitive areas. To create capacity to face these dangers, an entity must first quantify the threat and translate scientific knowledge on nature into comprehensible estimates of cost and loss. These estimates equip those at risk with knowledge to enact policy, formulate mitigation plans, raise awareness, and promote preparedness in light of potential destruction. Hazards-United States, or Hazus, is one such tool created by the federal government to estimate loss from a variety of threats, including earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods. Private and governmental agencies use Hazus to provide information and support to enact mitigation measures, craft plans, and create insurance assessments; hence the results of Hazus can have lasting and irreversible effects once the hazard in question occurs. This thesis addresses this problem and sheds light on the obvious and deterministic failings of Hazus in the context of the probable earthquake in Portland, OR; stripping away the tool's black box and exposing the grim vulnerabilities it fails to account for. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, this thesis aims to examine the critical flaws within Hazus and the omitted vulnerabilities particular to the Portland region and likely relevant in other areas of study. Second and more nationally applicable, this thesis intends to examine the influence Hazus outputs can have in the framing of seismic risk by the non-expert public. Combining the problem of inadequate understanding of risk in Portland with the questionable faith in Hazus alludes to a larger, socio-technical situation in need of attention by the academic and hazard mitigation community. This thesis addresses those issues in scope and adds to the growing body of literature on defining risk, hazard mitigation, and the consequences of natural disasters to urban environments.

Künstliche Terrassen sind künstlich konstruierte Trockenmauern, die Hänge in Ebenen unterteilen. Petra im Süden Jordaniens gehört zu einer trockenen Klimazone, die sich durch unwegsames Gelände und eine mit Terrassen durchsetzte Landschaft auszeichnet. Die vorliegenden Ergebnisse wurden vom Autor im Rahmen einer multidisziplinären Studie gesammelt, die aus Vermessungen, Erkundungsgrabungen, geophysikalischen Prospektionen, Untersuchungen der Bodentextur sowie chemischen Analysen, optisch stimulierender Lumineszenzdatierung (OSL), Radiokohlenstoffdatierung (14C), Phytolithanalysen und geografischen Analysen zur Untersuchung der Terrassen in einem Gebiet von etwa 391 km2 bestand. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt, dass die künstlichen Terrassen in Trockengebieten für eine Vielzahl von Funktionen konzipiert und genutzt wurden. Die Terrassen dienten somit der Rückhaltung, Sammlung und Verteilung von Boden und Wasser und verhinderten, dass Wasser unkontrolliert abfließt und Erde weggespült wird. Das trockene Klima, das raue Gelände und die für dieses Gebiet charakteristischen Überschwemmungen machten diese Eingriffe in die Natur notwendig. Neben diesen beiden Hauptaufgaben konnten die Terrassen der Nabatäer noch andere Funktionen erfüllen. Neben der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzung der Terrassen nutzten die Nabatäer sie auch zum Schutz ihrer Infrastruktur wie Straßen und hydrologische Einrichtungen. Ein Aspekt, der in der Forschung noch nicht diskutiert wurde. All dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Nabatäer die Gegend sehr gut kannten und gezielt den Bau einer bestimmten Art von Terrasse nutzten. Basierend auf verschiedenen Datierungstechniken begann der Bau der Terrassen in Petra um 350-320 v. Chr. Drei zeitliche Höhepunkte in der Bauausweitung lassen sich unterscheiden: um das 1. Jahrhundert n. Chr., um das 6. bis 7. Jahrhundert n. Chr. und um das 12. Jahrhundert n. Chr. / Man-made terraces are often-overlooked feature in the landscapes of southern Jordan, especially around Petra. These features are artificial constructions dry walls that create flat surfaces on slopes (Spencer, J. and Hale, G. 1961: 3; Treacy, J. and Denevan, W. 1994: 93; Kvapil, L. 2013: 6612). These terraces are usually attributed to have agricultural functions, which is only partially true. This study shows that terraces constructed in arid areas have been designed and used for a wide set of functions that go beyond their agrarian aspects. Petra, located in the south of Jordan, falls within an arid climatic zone, is of rough terrain, and has a landscape dotted with terraces. A multidisciplinary study was conducted by the author which included survey, sounding excavations, geophysical prospecting, soil texture and chemical analysis, Optical Stimulating Luminescence (OSL), radiocarbon dating (14C), phytolith analysis and spatial analysis for studying the terraces. Two major functions were assigned to the constructed terraces: hydrological (water) and pedogenic (soil). Applied to prevent, retain, collect and distribute soil and water. Nabataeans managed to apply terraces to a wide range of fields such as: agriculture, infrastructure such as roads and hydrological installations, an aspect never discussed before. The study concluded, based on OSL, pottery sherds and 14C dates, terrace construction in Petra started around 350-320 B.C.E. at the upper catchment areas, probably for flood water mitigation. Three peaks in the construction expansion can be grouped: around the 1st century A.D, around 6th -7th century and around 12th century, which correspond to more humid climatic conditions and stability in the political situation.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: During the period 2006-2012, the Langkloof area, situated in the Eden District Municipality, suffered severely from environmental shocks and social stress including drought, flooding, hail, wildfire, heatwaves and reduced labour demand. These events negatively impacted many farmers and their livelihoods. In response to these external shocks and stressors, large-, medium- and small-scale farmers adopted numerous coping and adaptive strategies. This study performed a comprehensive livelihoods analysis of large-, medium- and small-scale farmers in the Langkloof area, using the widely recognized sustainable livelihoods framework developed by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, with a particular focus on coping and adaptive strategies against severe environmental shock and social stress. Variables used in the analysis were the vulnerability context in which farmers pursue a livelihood; livelihood assets (social, human, financial, natural and physical); the policies, institutions and processes in the external environment that influence the degree of ownership and access to assets; livelihood strategies pursued; and the various livelihood outcomes ultimately produced. The analysis of coping and adaptive strategies employed by farmers during these periods formed an integral part of this study. Sixteen livelihood asset indicators were identified to determine the total assets (human, social, physical, financial and natural) of the farmers. After scaling the indicators, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to assign weights to each indicator and to subsequently calculate the total assets of each household. Regarding the coping and adaptive strategies employed by farmers against environmental shock and social stress, the average number of strategies was calculated for each household. Spearman’s rank correlations were calculated for total assets achieved (capacity) and the number of strategies employed against environmental shock and social stress. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Langkloofgedied, geleë in die Eden Distriksmunisipalitiet, is gedurende die tydperk 2006-2012 geweldig geteister deur omgewings- en sosiale gebeure, wat droogte, vloede, hael, veldbrande, hittegolwe en ʼn gevolglike verlaagde arbeidsaanvraag sluit. Hierdie rampe het verreikende nadelige gevolge op boere se lewensbestaan gehad. Terwyl hulle lewensbestaan tot die uiterste uitgedaag is, is verskeie hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres geïmplementeer. Met die gebruik van die Verenigde Koninkryk se Departement van Internasionale Ontwikkeling se volhoubare lewensbestaansraamwerk is ʼn gedetailleerde en alomvattende analise van groot, medium- en kleinskaalboere in die Langkloof se lewensbestaan gedoen, met ʼn sterk skem op hul hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë teen omgewingskok en sosiale stress. Die analise veranderlikes het die kwesbaarsheidskonteks waarin boere hul lewensbestaan aanpak; hul verskeie bates (menslik, sosiaal, finansieel, fisies en natuurlik); die beleide, instansies en prosesse in die eksterne omgewing wat toegang tot en eienaarskap van bates reguleer; hul lewensbestaanstrategieë; en die lewensbestaansuitkomste wat bereik word, behels. Die analise van die boere se hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë geïmplementeer teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres gedurende hierdie tydperk was ʼn integrale rol van hierdie studie. Sestien aanwysers is geïdentifiseer om die totale lewensbestaansbates (menslik, sosiaal, fisies, finansieel en natuurlik) van die boere te bepaal. Nadat die aanwysers geskaal is, is ‘n Hoofkomponentanalise (PCA) uitgevoer om gewigte aan elke aanwyser toe te ken vir die berekening van totale bates van huishoudings. Die hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë ingestel deur boere teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres, is die gemiddelde aantal strategieë per huishouding. Spearman se rangorde korrelasies is bereken vir die totale bates (kapasiteit) en die getal strategieë geïmplementeer teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres.