經歷十三年風雨，香港樓價再創歷史新高。有云：「禍兮福所倚」，業主得益於財富增長的同時，亦擔心高速增長埋下泡沫爆破的伏線。因樓價高企，年青人置業困難，社會不滿亦日漸升溫。 / 在國際貨幣基金組織出言警告後，香港金融管理局連同財政司相繼推出措施如額外印花稅，以及收緊不同物業種類的按揭上限，希望保持樓市健康及穩定發展。一石激起千重浪，政策推出後輿論不絶，但至今仍未有人以嚴謹的邏輯推論分析新政策的影響。本文以Stein (1995)的模型作藍本，稍作修改，以分析新政對樓價的影響。 / 按照文中模型計算，於當前經濟環境下，新措施確能維持樓市健康及穩定發展。額外印花稅能壓抑樓價時，收緊不同物業種類的按揭上限能保持樓價平穩。理論模型同時指出，兩樣政策都不是萬能丹，政府於調控樓市時應先評估當前經濟基礎，否則有機會事與願違。 / House price in Hong Kong is reaching its historical high. People start to worry a sudden drop of house price as what they had experienced in year 1997. Social disputes emerged and the Hong Kong government has taken several measures in reaction. Policies such as the Multi-down payment constraint by the HKMA and special stamp duty by the Financial Secretary are implemented in response to the soaring house price. The Media and the general public are keen to explore the effects and the consequences of the policies. However, little effort has been done to study the impact of the enacted policy in a systematic way. / This thesis augmented the model developed by Stein (1995) to examine the housing price behavior of Hong Kong. Simulation results justified the government’s policies. SSD helps to lower the house price while multi-down payment policy helps to stabilize the house price. However, for the policies to be effective, the government needs to spend a lot of efforts to examine the underlying economic fundamentals to avoid unintended results. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Long Ho. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 53-54). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / 擇要 --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- Hong Kong’s Post-Tsunami Economic Background --- p.4 / Chapter 3. --- Characteristics of the Hong Kong Residential Property Market --- p.7 / Chapter 3.1. --- Price and Transactions --- p.8 / Chapter 3.2. --- Market Structure --- p.10 / Chapter 3.3. --- Mortgage Financing --- p.11 / Chapter 4. --- Policies Launched --- p.11 / Chapter 4.1. --- Increasing supply --- p.12 / Chapter 4.2. --- Combating speculation --- p.12 / Chapter 4.3. --- Preventing excessive expansion in mortgage lending --- p.13 / Chapter 4.1. --- To enhance the transparency in the market --- p.13 / Chapter 5. --- Literature Review --- p.14 / Chapter 6. --- Choice of Model --- p.17 / Chapter 7. --- The Stein’s Benchmark Case --- p.19 / Chapter 7.1. --- General Form --- p.20 / Chapter 7.2. --- The Log Linear Form Utility --- p.22 / Chapter 8. --- The SSD Case --- p.23 / Chapter 8.1. --- General Form --- p.23 / Chapter 9. --- The Multi-Down Payment Case --- p.25 / Chapter 9.1. --- General Form --- p.25 / Chapter 9.2. --- The Stone-Geary Form log Utility --- p.29 / Chapter 9.3. --- The CES Utility --- p.29 / Chapter 10. --- Simulation and Results --- p.30 / Chapter 10.1. --- Choosing the parameter --- p.30 / Chapter 10.2. --- Results using Log Linear Utility --- p.32 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the SSD --- p.32 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the down payment requirement γ --- p.33 / Chapter 10.2.3. --- Changing the threshold in multi-down payment case --- p.35 / Chapter 10.2.4. --- Changing ý --- p.36 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.37 / Chapter 10.3. --- Results using Stone-Geary form Utility --- p.38 / Chapter 10.3.1. --- Changing the degree of necessity --- p.38 / Chapter 10.3.2. --- Changing SSD --- p.39 / Chapter 10.3.3. --- Changing the down payment portion γ --- p.39 / Chapter 10.3.4. --- Changing the down payment portion ý --- p.40 / Chapter 10.3.5. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.41 / Chapter 10.4. --- Results using CES form Utility --- p.41 / Chapter 10.4.1. --- Changing the elasticity of substitution by --- p.42 / Chapter 10.4.2. --- Changing SSD --- p.42 / Chapter 10.4.3. --- Changing the down payment portion --- p.43 / Chapter 10.4.4. --- Changing the down payment portion --- p.44 / Chapter 10.4.5. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.45 / Chapter 10.5. --- Summary of the results and policy implications --- p.45 / Chapter 11. --- Conclusion --- p.48 / Chapter 12. --- Tables and Charts --- p.49 / Chapter 13. --- References --- p.53 / Chapter 14. --- Appendix --- p.54

Tam Chun Yu. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 141-147). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.I / Acknowledgements --- p.III / Table of Contents --- p.IV / List of Tables --- p.V / List of Figures --- p.VI / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Real Estate Literature --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Financial Literature --- p.6 / Chapter 2.3 --- Impulse Response --- p.10 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Methodology --- p.12 / Chapter 3.1 --- Augmented Dickey Fuller Test --- p.12 / Chapter 3.2 --- GARCH Model --- p.14 / Chapter 3.3 --- VAR Model --- p.16 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Data Description --- p.18 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Empirical Results --- p.20 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview for the Data Set --- p.21 / Chapter 5.2 --- ADF Test --- p.22 / Chapter 5.3 --- GARCH Model --- p.22 / Chapter 5.4 --- VAR Model --- p.24 / Chapter 5.5 --- Impulse Response (IR) --- p.34 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.38 / Appendix 1. Variable Definition --- p.41 / Appendix 2. Tables --- p.44 / Appendix 3. Figures --- p.61 / Appendix 4. Comparison of IR for different model in full sample case --- p.93 / Appendix 5. Comparison of IR for different model in first sub period --- p.109 / Appendix 6. Comparison of IR for different model in second sub period --- p.125 / Bibliography --- p.141

by Siu Wai-Fun. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 55-57). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.vi / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.viii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- THE SOURCES OF HOUSING DEMAND --- p.4 / Demographic Demand --- p.4 / Keen Desire for Home Ownership --- p.5 / Investment Demand --- p.6 / Speculative Demand --- p.8 / Chapter III. --- THE SYSTEM OF HOUSING SUPPLY --- p.10 / Framework for Land Supply and Housing Production --- p.10 / New Land Disposal --- p.11 / Redevelopment of Existing Properties --- p.12 / Constraints on Land Supply for Residential Development --- p.12 / Production of Private Domestic Units --- p.13 / Chapter IV. --- CHANGES IN HOUSING PRICES --- p.15 / Housing Price Fluctuations --- p.16 / Affordability of Housing --- p.18 / Ownership Affordability --- p.19 / Rental Affordability --- p.20 / Chapter V. --- MODELLING HOUSING PRICES --- p.21 / Factors Affecting Price Movements --- p.21 / Demand Side Factors --- p.21 / Supply Side Factors --- p.23 / The Findings --- p.25 / Chapter VI. --- IMPLICATIONS TO GOVERNMENT'S HOUSING POLICIES --- p.27 / Implications from Housing Price Model --- p.27 / Government's Actions to Stabilise Housing Prices --- p.28 / Role of Speculators --- p.29 / Chapter VII. --- CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS --- p.30 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.55

Lau, Wai Chun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 78-79). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / 摘要 --- p.iii / Acknowledgments --- p.iv / Table of Contents --- p.v / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- Background --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Overview of Land Policies in Hong Kong --- p.4 / Land Policies and Private Housing Market --- p.4 / Current Application List System --- p.6 / Chapter 2.2. --- Hypotheses on the Interaction of Housing Prices and Land Sales --- p.6 / Demand-Supply Analysis --- p.6 / Revaluation Hypothesis --- p.8 / Chapter 3. --- Literature Review --- p.11 / Chapter 3.1. --- Relevant Literature about Interaction of Land and Housing Prices --- p.11 / Peng and Wheaton (1994) --- p.11 / Tse(1998) --- p.13 / Ho and Ganesam (1998) --- p.14 / Chapter 3.2. --- Hedonic Approach in the Studies of Hong Kong Real Estate Market --- p.16 / Chapter 4. --- Data Sources and Descriptions --- p.18 / Chapter 4.1 --- Land Sale Data --- p.18 / Chapter 4.2. --- Housing Transaction Data --- p.21 / Chapter 5. --- Methodology --- p.26 / Chapter 5.1 --- Model Specification --- p.26 / Chapter 5.2. --- Hypothesis Testing --- p.27 / Chapter 5.3. --- Functional Form and Estimation Method --- p.30 / Chapter 6. --- Empirical Results --- p.31 / Chapter 6.1. --- Hedonic Mode! Results --- p.31 / Chapter 6.2. --- Discussion on Pre-sale and Post-sale Housing Prices --- p.33 / Chapter 6.3. --- Robustness Checking --- p.36 / Variations in Specification --- p.36 / Time Variable Control --- p.38 / Estimation with Restricted samples --- p.40 / Chapter 7. --- Conclusions --- p.42 / Table 1 Selected Land Auction Records (1994 - 2005) --- p.45 / Table 2 List of Estates Covered in the Study --- p.49 / Table 3a Sampling Period and Number of Observations in Each Case Study --- p.54 / Table 3b Descriptive Statistics of Independent Variables in the Estimation of Model 1 --- p.56 / Table 4 Definition of Independent Variables in Model 1 --- p.60 / Table 5 OLS Estimates of Model 1 with Full Samples --- p.61 / Table 6 Goodness-of-Fit of Model 1 --- p.65 / Table 7 Coefficients of Dummy Variables in Model 1 --- p.66 / Table 8 Estimated Price Change from Model 1 --- p.70 / Table 9a Price Differences and Auction Results (All Cases) --- p.72 / Table 9b Price Differences and Auction Results (Cases with price differences at 10% significance level) --- p.72 / Table 10 Estimated Price Differences by Varying Model Specification and Sample Selection --- p.73 / Figure 1 Private Housing Prices and New Construction Units (1992 ~ 2005) --- p.76 / Figure 2 Mass CCI (1994 ~2006) --- p.77 / References --- p.78

published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

published_or_final_version / Urban Planning / Master / Master of Science in Urban Planning

Lau, Chi Keung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 187-188). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv / List of Chosen Samples Results --- p.v / List of Tables --- p.vi / List of Figures --- p.vii / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Real Estate Literature --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Financial Literature --- p.8 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Methodology --- p.15 / Chapter 3.1 --- Augmented Dickey Fuller Test --- p.15 / Chapter 3.2 --- Band-Pass Filter --- p.18 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Data Description --- p.20 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Empirical Results --- p.23 / Chapter 5.1 --- Contemporaneous Correlation --- p.24 / Chapter 5.2 --- Results after Band-Pass Filtering --- p.26 / Chapter 5.3 --- Lead-lag Relationship Analysis --- p.30 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.35 / Appendix 1. Variable Definition --- p.38 / Appendix 2. Limitation --- p.41 / Appendix 3. Results of Chosen Samples --- p.45 / Appendix 4. Tables --- p.54 / Appendix 5. Figures --- p.109 / Bibliography --- p.187

Yao, Wang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 38-39). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgements --- p.ii / Contents --- p.iii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- A Case Study of the Land Market in Hong Kong --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Background --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Institutions related to the land market --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Land Disposals --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Public Housing --- p.9 / Chapter 2.3 --- Recent Land and Housing Market History --- p.10 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Land Supply and Land Prices --- p.11 / Chapter 3 --- A Theory of Political Economy of Land Supply --- p.16 / Chapter 3.1 --- Model Setup --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2 --- Definition of Equilibrium --- p.19 / Chapter 3.3 --- Equilibrium Characterization --- p.20 / Chapter 3.4 --- Comparative Statics --- p.28 / Chapter 4 --- Conclusion --- p.31 / Appendix --- p.33 / Reference --- p.38

by Chan Ngai-Ming, Zoe, Chung Ting Ting. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 56-57). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- THE HONG KONG PRIMARY RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY --- p.6 / Industry Overview --- p.6 / Developers for This Study --- p.6 / Chapter III. --- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.8 / Competitor Analysis --- p.8 / Market Commonality Vs Product Commonality --- p.8 / Suggested Attributes for Studying Product Commonality in this Industry --- p.9 / Location --- p.9 / Time of Sale --- p.9 / Flat Size --- p.10 / Other Factors --- p.10 / Resource Similarity --- p.12 / Competitive Actions and Responses --- p.12 / Product Commonality and Competitive Response --- p.14 / Competitive Response and Performance --- p.17 / Chapter IV. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.19 / Data --- p.19 / Identification of Actions and Responses --- p.19 / Measurement --- p.21 / Product Commonality --- p.21 / Likelihood of Response to Price Change --- p.24 / Response Magnitude --- p.24 / Performance --- p.25 / Comparative Approach --- p.25 / Chapter V. --- RESULTS --- p.27 / Product Commonality and Likelihood of Response to Price Change --- p.27 / Response Magnitude and Performance --- p.30 / Chapter VI. --- CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION --- p.34 / Implications --- p.34 / Limitation and Future Directions --- p.36 / APPENDIX I RECOMMENDATIONS FROM STUDY OF HONG KONG RESIDENTIAL MARKET BY THE CONSUMER COUNCIL IN 1996 --- p.41 / APPENDIX IIA SUMMARY OF 27 DATA UNDER STUDIED --- p.43 / APPENDIX IIB TIMELINES FOR 27 DATA UNDER STUDIED --- p.46 / APPENDIX III PRODUCT COMMONALITY BREAKDOWN --- p.52 / APPENDIX IV SUMMARY OF PRIMARY DATA --- p.54 / bibliography --- p.56