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O mundo passa pelo processo de urbanização de sua população. As áreas urbanas são pólos atratores devido aos muitos benefícios proporcionados pela aglomeração de pessoas. Ao mesmo tempo, também são palco do agravamento de problemas relacionados à pobreza. Muitos desses novos problemas estão relacionados à necessidade de proporcionar abrigo a todos os moradores das crescentes metrópoles. No Brasil, e mais especificamente na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, a combinação da pobreza e rápido crescimento urbano culminou na dualidade do mercado habitacional: a existência do mercado formal e informal. Além disso, o mercado informal muitas vezes oferece condições de vida precárias, por não seguir a legislação apropriada. Na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo mesmo a alternativa no mercado formal de ocupar as periferias disponibiliza uma infra-estrutura urbana insuficiente. Apesar destes serem problemas de proporções significativas, não está claro como afetam a estrutura urbana das metrópoles, ou o funcionamento do mercado de habitação. Portanto, esta tese tem como objetivos esclarecer o funcionamento do mercado habitacional de São Paulo e estudar o seu processo de ocupação do solo, levando em conta a existência destes problemas urbanos. O primeiro problema analisado é o espraiamento urbano, pois a urbanização acontece de forma cada vez menos compacta. O segundo, das taxas de vacância residenciais, expõe a necessidade de gerenciar melhor os recursos da cidade: se o déficit habitacional é expressivo, porque temos tantos domicílios vagos? Por fim tratamos da interação entre o mercado de habitação formal e informal, estimando o impacto da proximidade a favelas no preço dos lançamentos imobiliários. Os resultados evidenciam o papel dos problemas gerados pela pobreza urbana no funcionamento de toda a metrópole. No estudo do espraiamento urbano identificamos como o fenômeno é incentivado pela periferização das camadas de renda baixa. Este problema também explica o padrão espacial das taxas de vacância residencial, alto no centro e baixo nas periferias, detectado no segundo ensaio. Este estudo ressaltou a importância da dinâmica do mercado imobiliário na diferenciação destas taxas. No último ensaio estimamos empiricamente uma externalidade negativa do mercado de habitação formal: a proximidade a favelas, evidenciando as relações entre os mercados formal e informal no município de São Paulo. / The worlds population is becoming urban in its majority. Urban areas attract people because of the benefits they provide. Still, they are a place where urban poverty problems are worsened. Among these new problems, many are related to the need to shelter the new inhabitants. In Brazil, and more specifically in São Paulo Metropolitan Area, the combination of poverty and fast urban growth has led to a duality in the housing market: the formal and informal markets. Moreover, because the informal market doesnt follow the urban laws, it often offers an unhealthy and unsafe environment. Even the formal market solution of suburbanization doesnt warrant an urban infra-structure good enough. Although these are significantly big problems, it is not clear how they affect the urban structure or the functioning of the housing market. Therefore this thesis has as target the study of São Paulo Metropolitan Areass housing market and its land use evolution, taking into account the urban problems above mentioned. First of all, we examine the problem of urban sprawl, since urbanization has been less compact. In the second essay we deal with residential vacancy rates. It shows the need to better manage the citys resources. If we have such a big housing deficit, why are there so many vacant dwellings? In the last essay, we present the interaction between the formal and informal housing market. We estimate how proximity to slums impact the price of real estate. Results highlight the role of urban poverty problems in the organization of the whole metropolis. Suburbanization of low income families is identified as one of the incentives for the urban sprawl. This problem also explains the spatial pattern of vacancy rates: high downtown, low in suburbs. The second essay also points out the importance of real estate market dynamics to the differentiation of these rates. In the third essay we estimate empirically one of the negative externalities of the formal housing market: the proximity to slums.

Cette thèse contient trois essais empiriques sur les marchés du logement et les politiques de logement. Dans le premier essai, nous étudions les effets du contrôle des loyers sur les loyers en utilisant des données historiques de panel sur une période de 78 ans à Lyon. Nous utilisons des régressions multiples avec des effets fixes comme principale forme d’analyse. Nos résultats montrent que l’effet causal du contrôle des loyers sur les loyers à Lyon est significativement négatif. Dans le deuxième essai, j’étudie l’influence de l’âge du chef de famille sur la demande de logements grâce à des données sur les ménages en Chine. Le modèle de prix hédonique en deux étapes, utilisé dans cet essai, me permet d’estimer l’effet de l’âge du chef de famille sur la demande de logements, en contrôlant la qualité du logement et les caractéristiques des autres ménages. Les résultats montrent que la disposition à payer, à qualité constante de la maison, diminue légèrement ou reste constante lorsque le chef de famille vieillit, une fois contrôlé le niveau d’instruction du chef de famille. En revanche, il diminue rapidement si le niveau d’instruction du chef de famille n’est pas contrôlé. Par conséquent, cet essai conclut que la demande totale de logements ne devrait pas diminuer avec le vieillissement de la population, parce que la génération actuelle est plus éduquée que la précédente. Enfin, dans le troisième essai, dans le cadre du modèle de Rosen-Roback, j’analyse l’impact des coûts du logement sur le ratio d’intensité des compétences (SIR), dans différentes villes chinoises. Pour éviter les problèmes d’endogénéité, j’utilise à la fois la part des terrains non disponibles et les prix des logements historiques comme instruments des prix actuels du logement. Les résultats montrent que les prix moyens des logements ont des effets positifs significatifs sur le SIR en 2010 lorsque la mobilité des travailleurs est assouplie, mais que les effets sont non significatifs sur le SIR en 2000 lorsque la mobilité des travailleurs était étroitement réglementée. / This thesis contains three empirical essays on housing markets and housing policies. In the first essay, we investigate the effects of rent control on rents using historical panel data in Lyon over a 78-year period. We use multiple regressions with fixed effects as the main form of analysis. Our results show that the causal effect of rent control on rents in Lyon is significantly negative. In the second essay, I study how age influences housing demand based on household level data from China. The two-stage hedonic house price model used in this essay allows me to estimate the pure age effect on housing demand, after housing quality and other household’s characteristics are controlled for. The results demonstrate that the willingness-to-pay for a constant-quality house will decrease slightly or keep constant when a representative household head becomes old, if the household head’s educational attainment is controlled for. In contrast, it will drop rapidly if the household head’s educational attainment is not controlled for. Therefore, this essay concludes that the total housing demand will not decrease with population aging, because the current middle- aged generation get educated more than the current old generation. Finally, in the third essay, in the framework of Rosen-Roback model, I analyze how housing costs affect the ratio of high-skilled to low-skilled workers, explicitly the skill intensity ratio (SIR), across cities in China. To avoid endogeneity issues, I use both share of unavailable land and historical housing prices as instruments of current housing prices. The results show that average housing prices have significant positive effects on the SIR in 2010 when workers’ mobility is relaxed, but insignificant effects on the SIR in 2000 when workers’ mobility was tightly regulated.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2009

O mundo passa pelo processo de urbanização de sua população. As áreas urbanas são pólos atratores devido aos muitos benefícios proporcionados pela aglomeração de pessoas. Ao mesmo tempo, também são palco do agravamento de problemas relacionados à pobreza. Muitos desses novos problemas estão relacionados à necessidade de proporcionar abrigo a todos os moradores das crescentes metrópoles. No Brasil, e mais especificamente na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, a combinação da pobreza e rápido crescimento urbano culminou na dualidade do mercado habitacional: a existência do mercado formal e informal. Além disso, o mercado informal muitas vezes oferece condições de vida precárias, por não seguir a legislação apropriada. Na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo mesmo a alternativa no mercado formal de ocupar as periferias disponibiliza uma infra-estrutura urbana insuficiente. Apesar destes serem problemas de proporções significativas, não está claro como afetam a estrutura urbana das metrópoles, ou o funcionamento do mercado de habitação. Portanto, esta tese tem como objetivos esclarecer o funcionamento do mercado habitacional de São Paulo e estudar o seu processo de ocupação do solo, levando em conta a existência destes problemas urbanos. O primeiro problema analisado é o espraiamento urbano, pois a urbanização acontece de forma cada vez menos compacta. O segundo, das taxas de vacância residenciais, expõe a necessidade de gerenciar melhor os recursos da cidade: se o déficit habitacional é expressivo, porque temos tantos domicílios vagos? Por fim tratamos da interação entre o mercado de habitação formal e informal, estimando o impacto da proximidade a favelas no preço dos lançamentos imobiliários. Os resultados evidenciam o papel dos problemas gerados pela pobreza urbana no funcionamento de toda a metrópole. No estudo do espraiamento urbano identificamos como o fenômeno é incentivado pela periferização das camadas de renda baixa. Este problema também explica o padrão espacial das taxas de vacância residencial, alto no centro e baixo nas periferias, detectado no segundo ensaio. Este estudo ressaltou a importância da dinâmica do mercado imobiliário na diferenciação destas taxas. No último ensaio estimamos empiricamente uma externalidade negativa do mercado de habitação formal: a proximidade a favelas, evidenciando as relações entre os mercados formal e informal no município de São Paulo. / The worlds population is becoming urban in its majority. Urban areas attract people because of the benefits they provide. Still, they are a place where urban poverty problems are worsened. Among these new problems, many are related to the need to shelter the new inhabitants. In Brazil, and more specifically in São Paulo Metropolitan Area, the combination of poverty and fast urban growth has led to a duality in the housing market: the formal and informal markets. Moreover, because the informal market doesnt follow the urban laws, it often offers an unhealthy and unsafe environment. Even the formal market solution of suburbanization doesnt warrant an urban infra-structure good enough. Although these are significantly big problems, it is not clear how they affect the urban structure or the functioning of the housing market. Therefore this thesis has as target the study of São Paulo Metropolitan Areass housing market and its land use evolution, taking into account the urban problems above mentioned. First of all, we examine the problem of urban sprawl, since urbanization has been less compact. In the second essay we deal with residential vacancy rates. It shows the need to better manage the citys resources. If we have such a big housing deficit, why are there so many vacant dwellings? In the last essay, we present the interaction between the formal and informal housing market. We estimate how proximity to slums impact the price of real estate. Results highlight the role of urban poverty problems in the organization of the whole metropolis. Suburbanization of low income families is identified as one of the incentives for the urban sprawl. This problem also explains the spatial pattern of vacancy rates: high downtown, low in suburbs. The second essay also points out the importance of real estate market dynamics to the differentiation of these rates. In the third essay we estimate empirically one of the negative externalities of the formal housing market: the proximity to slums.

Cette thèse relève de l’économie urbaine, de l’économie de l’environnement et de l’évaluation des politiques publiques. La première partie (chapitres 1 et 2) est une évaluation empirique de l’impact de la perception du risque industriel sur le marché du logement. Plus précisément, ces chapitres exploitent des méthodes quantitatives initialement élaborées pour l’évaluation des politiques publiques pour mesurer la réaction des marchés immobiliers locaux à deux changements dans la perception des risques industriels. Le chapitre 1 analyse ainsi les conséquences de l’accident d’AZF (Toulouse, 2001), et le chapitre 2 celles de la loi Bachelot (votée en 2003). Ces deux chapitres montrent que l’information additionnelle sur les risques industriels qui a découlé de ces deux événements s’est traduite par une baisse significative des prix immobiliers, de l’ordre de 2 % en moyenne. Cet effet prix suggère que les marchés à risque se trouvaient en situation d’information imparfaite avant ces événements. En outre, ces chocs ont modifié la composition socio-démographique des voisinages exposés au risque industriel. Cette première partie illustre des situations dans lesquelles il n'est pas possible de concevoir des expérimentations contrôlées. Il est donc important d'étudier les propriétés des estimateurs d’appariement sur score de propension, qui sont souvent considérés comme une alternative raisonnable. C'est l'objet de la seconde partie (chapitres 3 et 4) de cette thèse. Le chapitre 3 compare ainsi les performances de deux procédures d'estimation dans le cadre d’un programme d’accompagnement au retour à l’emploi. La première repose sur une expérimentation contrôlée, et la seconde sur un appariement sur score de propension. Dans ce cas, les méthodes d’appariement ne parviennent pas à reproduire les estimations issues de l’expérimentation. Le chapitre 4 propose donc une alternative aux méthodes classiques d’appariement, l'estimateur BEAST, et en illustre les propriétés à partir de simulations et d’études de cas. / This thesis falls within the scope of urban economics, environmental economics and public policy evaluation. The first part (chapters 1 and 2) is an empirical evaluation of the impact of industrial risk perception on the housing market. More specifically, these chapters rely on quantitative methods originally designed for public policy evaluation to measure the reaction of local housing markets to two changes in industrial risk perception. Chapter 1 analyzes the consequences of the AZF accident (Toulouse, 2001), and chapter 2 the consequences of the Bachelot regulation (passed in 2003). Both chapters show that additional information on industrial risk translated into a significant housing price decrease of about 2% on average. This price effect is consistent with an initial imperfect information setting. In addition, there is some evidence of neighborhood composition changes following these changes. This first part builds on typical examples in which randomized experiments cannot be designed, which lead to questioning the properties of estimators based on propensity score estimation. This is the aim of the second part (chapters 3 and 4) of the thesis. Chapter 3 compares the performances of experimental and non-experimental estimators using the example of a job-search assistance programme. It shows that, in this particular case, matching methods cannot accurately replicate the experimental results. Chapter 4 proposes the BEAST estimator as an alternative to typical propensity score matching, and illustrates its properties on simulations and case studies.

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In order to assist governments in ensuring efficient housing markets and providing access to suitable housing conditions for all people, research about the functioning of housing markets is needed. My thesis, which is comprised of three essays that repre-sent the main chapters, contributes to the research on the economic processes that work within housing markets, especially with regard to challenges that arise from ur-ban concentration. In particular, I study the following research questions: • What are causes of vacancies in the housing market? • What are the effects of real estate transfer taxes on activity in the housing market? • What are the differences between counties in the provision of technical infra-structure? 1. Causes of Vacancies We summarize theoretical approaches, which may explain the mechanisms leading to vacancies under the assumptions of the standard market model, search and matching theory and behavioral economics. Concerning the latter, we propose a new frame-work to explain why and under which conditions homeowners are hesitant to sell their dwellings, which may lead to vacancies. In this framework, we highlight the fact that even if buyers and sellers are homogenous individuals, their willingness to pay differs depending on market developments. Under the assumptions of the standard market model, we hypothesize that vacancies only arise if the market price equals the suppliers’ minimum price. Next to that, we identify the following factors that could explain an increase in vacancies: Greater market power, higher heterogeneity between dwellings, low holding costs of dwellings, high list prices, a high share of small dwell-ings, less intermediaries and a shorter mandatory period of notice of tenants. Despite the wide range of models explaining vacancies, there is need for new theoretical frameworks. We evaluate the identified hypotheses in the theoretical literature by comparing them with the results found in the empirical studies. Some hypotheses have either been in-vestigated by the empirical literature only to a limited degree or have not been inves-tigated at all. Next to the positive analysis of the mechanisms that cause vacancies, we need to pose the normative question, if and under which circumstances vacancies should be considered problematic. Vacancies in the short run may be a necessity in a search and matching context to reach an efficient market outcome; i.e., to offer poten-tial buyers a heterogeneous pool of options to choose from and to fit their individual needs. Additionally, with the assumptions of behavioral economics, an owner of a vacant dwelling might find greater pleasure in speculating with the object than a buyer would enjoy living in it. However, vacancies could indicate a welfare loss if caused by a monopoly that artificially reduces the housing supply on a market. A reduction of information asymmetry could reduce vacancies and increase welfare. 2. Effects of Real Estate Transfer Taxes German states can set their own real estate transfer tax rates. To date, the real estate transfer tax rates range between 3.5% and 6.5%. Although the tax rates do not seem to be particularly high, the tax results in a relatively high tax amount to be paid; even small changes in the tax rate may cause buyers to accelerate a planned transaction to pay a lower tax rate. In our empirical analysis of different German states, we estimate that a one-percentage-point increase in the transfer tax produces significant anticipation effects for the month just before a tax is increased (about 43% more transactions before and 44% less after) and yields approximately 6% fewer overall transactions and therefore much lower market activity. We show that in many cases, the former first-best option – to buy or sell a single-family home – is apparently no longer the optimal choice. Thus, we expect ownership rates to decrease as letting apartments becomes more attractive than selling. This questions the wisdom of real estate transfer tax increases when other political measures that attempt to support homeownership creation are in place. Addi-tionally, retired households, which tend to stay in houses that are too large after their children have left, could be discouraged from downsizing to their actual needs. Indi-viduals may forgo better job offers in other regions or accept longer commutes, which can have negative consequences on urban labor markets. 3. Efficiency of County Road Provision When houses in urban areas are expensive, an adequate road network allows residents to locate further away from agglomeration centers. This takes pressure off housing prices and infrastructure systems in cities and supports housing markets in rural areas. I use the example of county roads to study whether counties differ in their efficiency of the provision of infrastructure. Efficiency refers to the use of economic resources (input) in the most technologically efficient manner to produce a certain amount of output. Studies on the efficient provision of roads incorporated the ‘quantity’ of roads (e.g., the length of the road network) and the ‘quality’ of roads (e.g., an index that measures road condition) as the relevant output indicators. I address two major problems of previous studies. First, to measure the quality of roads, I acquired new and improved data on road condition by county governments. Second, I focus on the data referring to a road network of approximately the same age. An old road network asks for more frequent maintenance and thus higher costs. Therefore, it is possible that governments with an older road network in their region could be identified as less efficient than governments with a newer road network, even if they do not actually employ their financial resources in a less efficient manner. The results of my study indicate that there are substantial efficiency differences and efficiency reserves in the provision of roads in eastern German counties: Depending on the specification, in the median county, the same level of outputs (i.e., area of roads and road condition) could be achieved using 48% to 70% fewer inputs (i.e., expendi-tures). I also find that my results differ greatly from existing studies applying proxy data for the quality of roads (e.g., the number of accidents).

A partir de l’évolution des écarts spatiaux des prix du logement et des prix fonciers entre sept secteurs de Bogota, entre 1970 et 2012, cette thèse analyse l’ampleur des recompositions socio-spatiales de la ville. En croisant l’analyse urbaine et l’étude de marchés immobiliers, cette recherche aborde l’évolution des secteurs déjà construits de la ville et les variations des prix des logements anciens. Contrairement aux recherches qui insistent sur la profondeur et la rapidité des transformations des villes latino-américaines sous l’effet de la globalisation, nos résultats montrent que les différences spatiales des prix du logement restent stables. Seuls les écarts spatiaux des prix fonciers augmentent pendant notre période d’étude. L’analyse statistique des facteurs explicatifs de l’inertie des écarts spatiaux des prix montre que la stabilité globale résulte de la conjonction de deux tendances ayant des effets opposés. La diffusion des commerces réduit les écarts spatiaux des prix, alors que la valeur symbolique du secteur de résidence explique le maintien des différences spatiales des prix. Quant aux prix fonciers, la densification des constructions explique une portion des écarts croissants entre secteurs de la ville, mais reste insuffisante pour comprendre l’ampleur des évolutions constatées / Following the evolution of the gaps in housing and land values between seven sectors of Bogotá between 1970 and 2012, this thesis analyzes the scale of urban socio-spatial transformations. By overlapping urban analysis with the study of real estate markets, this analysis deals with the evolution of already-built areas and their housing prices. In contrast with research that emphasizes the depth and rapidity of transformations in Latin American cities during globalization, our findings show that gaps in housing prices from one area to another remain stable. During the period studied, only in the realm of land value gaps in prices between one area and another did actually widen. The statistical analysis of factors explaining the stability of gaps between housing prices from one area to another reveals that overall stability results from the conjunction of two trends with opposite effects. The spatial diffusion of shopping outlets reduces the gaps in housing prices from one area to another, to the same extent as the symbolic or perceived value of each of these residential areas keeps these gaps in prices entrenched. As for land prices, the densification of buildings explains to some extent the widening gaps in prices between some sectors of the city, but this one factor is not enough to explain the extent of the observed evolutions