Pagrindinė šios disertacijos tema - stochastinių diferencialinių lygčių (SDL), valdomų trupmeninio Brauno judesio (tBj), sprendinių Hursto indekso H vertinimas. Pirmiausia disertacijoje išnagrinėta SDL, valdomų tBj, sprendinių pirmos ir antros eilės kvadratinių variacijų ribinė elgsena. Iš šių rezultatų seka keli stipriai pagrįsti Hursto indekso H įvertiniai. Įrodyta, kad šie įvertiniai išlieka stipriai pagrįsti, jei tikra sprendinio trajektorija keičiama jos Milšteino aproksimacija. Taip pat išnagrinėtos pokyčių santykio (increment ratios) statistikos H įvertinio, gauto J. M. Bardeto ir D. Surgailio 2010 m., taikymo trupmeninio geometrinio Brauno judesio Hursto indekso vertinimui galimybės bei nustatytas modifikuoto Gladyševo H įvertinio konvergavimo į tikrąją parametro reikšmę greitis. Gauti įvertiniai palyginti su kai kuriais kitais žinomais Hursto indekso H įvertiniais: naiviais bei mažiausių kvadratų Gladyševo ir eta-sumavimo osciliacijos įvertiniais, variogramos įvertiniu ir pokyčių santykio statistikos įvertiniu. Įvertiniu elgsena buvo palyginta trupmeniniam Ornšteino-Ulenbeko (OU) procesui bei trupmeniniam geometriniam Brauno judesiui (gBj). Pradinės išvados buvo padarytos O-U procesui, kuris yra Gauso, o gBj procesas buvo naudojamas patikrinti, kaip šie įvertiniai elgiasi, kai procesas yra ne Gauso. Disertaciją sudaro įvadas, 3 pagrindiniai skyriai, išvados, literatūros sąrašas, autoriaus publikacijų disertacijos tema sąrašas ir du priedai. / The main topic of this dissertation is the estimation of the Hurst index H of the solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by the fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Firstly, the limit behavior of the first and second order quadratic variations of the solutions of SDEs driven by the fBm is analyzed. This yields several strongly consistent estimators of the Hurst index H. Secondly, it is proved that in case the solution of the SDE is replaced by its Milstein approximation, the estimators remain strongly consistent. Additionally, the possibilities of applying the increment ratios (IR) statistic based estimator of H originally obtained by J. M. Bardet and D. Surgailis in 2010 to the fractional geometric Brownian motion are examined. Furthermore, this dissertation derives the convergence rate of the modified Gladyshev's estimator of the Hurst index to its real value. The estimators obtained in the dissertation were compared with several other known estimators of the Hurst index H, namely the naive and ordinary least squares Gladyshev and eta-summing oscillation estimators, the variogram estimator and the IR estimator. The models chosen for comparison of these estimators were the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process and the fractional geometric Brownian motion (gBm). The initial inference about the behavior of these estimators was drawn for the O-U process which is Gaussian, while the gBm process was used to check how the estimators behave in a... [to full text]

The main topic of this dissertation is the estimation of the Hurst index H of the solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by the fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Firstly, the limit behavior of the first and second order quadratic variations of the solutions of SDEs driven by the fBm is analyzed. This yields several strongly consistent estimators of the Hurst index H. Secondly, it is proved that in case the solution of the SDE is replaced by its Milstein approximation, the estimators remain strongly consistent. Additionally, the possibilities of applying the increment ratios (IR) statistic based estimator of H originally obtained by J. M. Bardet and D. Surgailis in 2010 to the fractional geometric Brownian motion are examined. Furthermore, this dissertation derives the convergence rate of the modified Gladyshev’s estimator of the Hurst index to its real value. The estimators obtained in the dissertation were compared with several other known estimators of the Hurst index H, namely the naive and ordinary least squares Gladyshev and eta-summing oscillation estimators, the variogram estimator and the IR estimator. The models chosen for comparison of these estimators were the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process and the fractional geometric Brownian motion (gBm). The initial inference about the behavior of these estimators was drawn for the O-U process which is Gaussian, while the gBm process was used to check how the estimators behave in a... [to full text] / Pagrindinė šios disertacijos tema – stochastinių diferencialinių lygčių (SDL), valdomų trupmeninio Brauno judesio (tBj), sprendinių Hursto indekso H vertinimas. Pirmiausia disertacijoje išnagrinėta SDL, valdomų tBj, sprendinių pirmos ir antros eilės kvadratinių variacijų ribinė elgsena. Iš šių rezultatų seka keli stipriai pagrįsti Hursto indekso H įvertiniai. Įrodyta, kad šie įvertiniai išlieka stipriai pagrįsti, jei tikra sprendinio trajektorija keičiama jos Milšteino aproksimacija. Taip pat išnagrinėtos pokyčių santykio (increment ratios) statistikos H įvertinio, gauto J. M. Bardeto ir D. Surgailio 2010 m., taikymo trupmeninio geometrinio Brauno judesio Hursto indekso vertinimui galimybės bei nustatytas modifikuoto Gladyševo H įvertinio konvergavimo i tikrąją parametro reikšme greitis. Gauti įvertiniai palyginti su kai kuriais kitais žinomais Hursto indekso H įvertiniais: naiviais bei mažiausių kvadratų Gladyševo ir eta-sumavimo osciliacijos įvertiniais, variogramos įvertiniu ir pokyčių santykio statistikos įvertiniu. Įvertinių elgsena buvo palyginta trupmeniniam Ornšteino-Ulenbeko (OU) procesui bei trupmeniniam geometriniam Brauno judesiui (gBj). Pradinės išvados buvo padarytos O-U procesui, kuris yra Gauso, o gBj procesas buvo naudojamas patikrinti, kaip šie įvertiniai elgiasi, kai procesas yra ne Gauso. Disertaciją sudaro įvadas, 3 pagrindiniai skyriai, išvados, literatūros sąrašas, autoriaus publikacijų disertacijos tema sąrašas ir du priedai.

La rationalité parfaite des investisseurs, base de l'hypothèse d'efficience desmarchés, est de plus en plus discutée. Ceci a conduit au développement de la financecomportementale. Le sentiment de marché, qui en est issu, est l'objet de cette étude.Après l'avoir mis en relation avec la rationalité et défini, ses modes de mesure courantset une évaluation de leur capacité à anticiper les rentabilités sont présentés. Ensuite, autravers de deux recherches largement indépendantes, nous (1) montrons de manièreempirique, essentiellement à partir de modèles multi-agents et d'une modélisation del'impact des chocs d'information sur la distribution des rentabilités, que les skewness etkurtosis de la distribution des rentabilités peuvent être utilisés comme indicateurs dusentiment de marché ; (2) mettons en évidence la présence de mémoire sur de nombreuxindicateurs de sentiment, ce qui invalide les modalités habituelles de leur utilisation,dans le cadre de stratégies contrarian.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-07-03T14:11:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MiltonGomesDeSouzaNetto_DISSERT.pdf: 17163746 bytes, checksum: 1f47747a8a9396780f7b8050a1ea7ac9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-07-10T13:55:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MiltonGomesDeSouzaNetto_DISSERT.pdf: 17163746 bytes, checksum: 1f47747a8a9396780f7b8050a1ea7ac9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T13:55:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MiltonGomesDeSouzaNetto_DISSERT.pdf: 17163746 bytes, checksum: 1f47747a8a9396780f7b8050a1ea7ac9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-10-28 / Motivados pelo crescente aumento no n?mero de projetos de pesquisas em exoplanetase pela escassez de modelos matem?ticos que levem em considera??o ru?dos n?o-Gaussianose correlacionados na fotometria dos dados, n?s analisamos a altera??o do par?metro estat?stico expoente de Hurst, H, em s?ries temporais com diversos tipos de ru?do astrof?sico,com e sem a presen?a de um tr?nsito planet?rio. Neste sentido, determinamos o valor doexpoente de Hurst para duas curvas de luz provenientes do banco p?blico de dados da miss?o CoRoT. Usamos, para estimar o valor de H, dois m?todos: a an?lise R/S (sigla do ingl?s rescaled range) e a transformada r?pida de Fourier, fft (sigla do ingl?s fast Fou-rier transform). Para isso, desenvolvemos um simulador de ru?do astrof?sico onde geramos s?ries temporais de diversos tipos de ru?do e estimamos o valor de H para todas as s?ries simuladas. Na sequ?ncia, geramos um tr?nsito planet?rio sint?tico e o inserimos nos ru?dos para ent?o recalcularmos o valor de H. Notamos que a presen?a do tr?nsito planet?rio alterou significativamente o valor do expoente de Hurst e que o m?todo da an?lise R/S ? mais adequado do que o m?todo da transformada r?pida de Fourier quando se trata de s?ries temporais na presen?a de ru?dos n?o-Gaussianos. Verificamos que o expoente de Hurst pode ser um descriminante poderoso para distinguir s?ries temporais com comportamento variado, em particular, a distin??o entre s?ries apresentando tr?nsito. Estimamos ainda o expoente de Hurst para 30 estrelas da base de dados p?blicos da miss?o Kepler e o relacionamos com o per?odo orbital de planetas presentes nesses sistemas.

The goal of the thesis is to evaluate the degree of efficiency of the particular markets and to apply the methods of fundamental and technical analysis on them in order to assess their efficiency in terms of profitablity. The thesis analyses the degree of long-term memory of the particular commodities and stock indices via Hurst coefficient. Afterwards fundamental and technical methods are applied to the market with the highest degree of long-term memory, which is the feeder cattle market. Indidivual methods from both disciplines are being applied at first, after wich a combnation of both is appleid as well. The result is the discovery, whether combining the two approaches leads to a higher profitability of the trading strategy. At the end the effect of transacton costs is also evalauted and a final conclusion is made regarding the profit potential of both methods for the case of individual Czech investor.

The key objective of this thesis is the outline of an alternative capital market modeling framework, the Volatility Asset Pricing Model, VAPM, inspired by the innovative dual approach of Mandelbrot and Hudson using the method based on synthesis of two seemingly antagonistic factors -- the volatility of market prices and their serial dependence determining the capital markets' dynamics. The pilot tests of this model in various periods using the market index as well as a portfolio of selected securities delivered generally satisfactory results. Firstly, the work delivers a brief recapitulation regarding the concepts of a consumer/investor choice under general conditions of hypothetical certainty. Secondly, this outline is then followed by a description of the "classical" methodologies in the risky environment of uncertainty, with assessment of their corresponding key models, i.e. the CAPM, SIM, MIM, APTM, etc., notwithstanding results of the related testing approaches. Thirdly, this assessment is based on evaluation of the underlying doctrine of Efficient Market Hypothesis in relation to the so called Random Walk Model. Fourthly, in this context the work also offers a brief exposure to a few selected tests of these contraversial concepts. Fifthly, the main points of conteporary approaches such as the Fractal Dimension and the Hurst Exponent in the dynamic framework of information entropy are subsequently described as the theoretical tools leading to development of the abovementioned model VAPM. The major contribution of this thesis is considered its attempt to apply the abovementioned concepts in practice, with the intention to possibly inspire a further analytical research.

Tato práce se zabývá návrhem, realizací a optimalizací systému určenímu k obchodování na finančních trzích, konkrétně s technologickými firmami trhu NASDAQ. K tomuto účelu jsou využívány technické indicatory a hlavně neuronových sítí. Vlastní řešení je pak realizováno v prostředi MATLAB.

The aim of this thesis is to simulate stochastic models that are driven by a fractional Brownian motion process and to apply these methods to financial applications related to yield rate and asset price modelling. Several rough volatility processes are used to model the asset price and yield dynamics. Firstly fractional processes of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross, CEV and Vasicek types are introduced as models for volatility and yield data. In this framework it holds that the Hurst parameter that determines the covariance structure of the fBM process can be directly estimated from observed data series using a least squares log-periodogram approach. The remaining parameters in the model are estimated using a combination of Maximum Likelihood estimates and expectation estimations. In the modelling and pricing of assets one model that is studied is the fractional Heston model, that is used to model an asset price process using both observed asset and volatility data. Similarly two other similar rough volatility models are also studied, which are constructed so as to have log-Normal returns. These processes which in the thesis are called the exponential models 1 and 2 have rough volatility that are characterized by the CEV and Vasicek processes. Additionally the first order Wiener Chaos Expansion is implemented and explored in two ways. Firstly the Chaos Expansion is applied to a parametric fractional stochastic model which is used to generate a Wick product process, which is found to resemble the underlying process. It is also used to generate an approximate expansion of real yield rate data using a bootstrap sampling approach. / Den här uppsatsen syftar till att simulera stokastiska modeller som drivs av fraktionell Brownsk rörelse och att använda dessa modeller i finansiella tillämpningar relaterade till räntor och finansiella tillgångar. Flera volatilitetsprocesser som är rough används för att modellera ränte- och aktiedynamiken. Först introduceras de fraktionella varianterna av Cox-Ingersoll-Ross, CEV och Vasicek processer, vilka används för att modellera volatilitet och ränteprocesser. Med detta tillvägagångssätt gäller det att Hurstparametern, vilken bestämmer covariansstrukturen för den fraktionella Brownska rörelsen, kan uppskattas direkt från observerad data med en minsta kvadrat log-periodogram-metod. Samtliga andra parametrar i modellen uppskattas med en kombination av Maximum Likelihood och uppskattning av väntevärden. I modelleringen och prissättningen av finansiella tillgångar är en model som studeras den fraktionella Hestonmodellen, som används för att modellera en tillgång baserat på både volatilitets- och aktiedata. Ytterligare två liknande modeller studeras, vilka också har volatilitet som är rough och är konstruerade så att deras avkastning är log-Normal. Dessa processer, vilka i uppsatsen är benämnda som de exponentiella modellerna 1 och 2 har volatilitet som karaktäriseras av CEV- och Vasicekprocesser. Ytterligare är Wiener's Kaosexpansion av första ordningen också implementerad och undersöks från två håll. Först används den på en parameterbestämd fraktionell stokastisk modell, vilken används för att generera en Wickproduktprocess. Expansionen används även med hjälp av en bootstrap-metod för att generera en process från observerad data.

No description available.

Digital Signal Processing has been dominated by the Fourier transform since the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was developed in 1965 by Cooley and Tukey. In the 1980's a new transform was developed called the wavelet transform, even though the first wavelet goes back to 1910. With the Fourier transform, all information about localized changes in signal features are spread out across the entire signal space, making local features global in scope. Wavelets are able to retain localized information about the signal by applying a function of a limited duration, also called a wavelet, to the signal. As with the Fourier transform, the discrete wavelet transform has an inverse transform, which allows us to make changes in a signal in the wavelet domain and then transform it back in the time domain. In this thesis, we have investigated the filtering properties of this technique and analyzed its performance under various settings. Another popular application of wavelet transform is data compression, such as described in the JPEG 2000 standard and compressed digital storage of fingerprints developed by the FBI. Previous work on filtering has focused on the discrete wavelet transform. Here, we extended that method to the stationary wavelet transform and found that it gives a performance boost of as much as 9 dB over that of the discrete wavelet transform. We also found that the SNR of noise filtering decreases as a frequency of the base signal increases up to the Nyquist limit for both the discrete and stationary wavelet transforms. Besides filtering the signal, the discrete wavelet transform can also be used to estimate the standard deviation of the white noise present in the signal. We extended the developed estimator for the discrete wavelet transform to the stationary wavelet transform. As with filtering, it is found that the quality of the estimate decreases as the frequency of the base signal increases. Many interesting signals are self-similar, which means that one of their properties is invariant on many different scales. One popular example is strict self-similarity, where an exact copy of a signal is replicated on many scales, but the most common property is statistical self-similarity, where a random segment of a signal is replicated on many different scales. In this work, we investigated wavelet-based methods to detect statistical self-similarities in a signal and their performance on various types of self-similar signals. Specifically, we found that the quality of the estimate depends on the type of the units of the signal being investigated for low Hurst exponent and on the type of edge padding being used for high Hurst exponent. / Master of Science