Master of Science / Department of Computing and Information Sciences / Mitchell L. Neilsen / In recent years, headline news has been overwhelmed with stories about dam and levee failures including the 2005 levee breaches in New Orleans and the 2006 Kaloko Damfailure in Hawaii that resulted in seven deaths. Since 2000, state and federal agencies have reported 92 dam failures in the United States to the National Performance of Dams Program. Incidents such as these have brought both national and worldwide attention to the need for improved flood warning systems and breach prediction tools for dam embankment and levee failures. (G. J. Hanson, 2010) IESIMBA 2012 is an upgraded version of SIMBA, which has been upgraded from VB6 to C#.NET. The Microsoft Windows-based SIMplified Breach Analysis software (SIMBA) was developed by the USDA Agricultural Research Service in cooperation with Kansas State University. The software was developed for the purpose of analyzing internal erosion, earth embankment breach test data and extending the understanding of the underlying physical processes of breach of an overtopped earth embankment. It is a research tool that is modified routinely to test the sensitivity of the output to various sub-models and assumptions. This software is a test version for use in validation testing of the simplified breach model based on stress and mass failure driven headcut movement. It runs under Microsoft Windows 98SE, Windows 2000, NT, XP, or Vista. The following Input Screens are used to guide the user through development of input data sets.  Model Properties , Dam Profile , Structure Table, Spillway Rating and Hydrograph Data After an input data set has been entered, the data is saved and simulation can be performed on the data stored in memory at any time by selecting Build option. Input and output files are stored in a fixed ASCII text format. The results of the simulation can be viewed in graphical format which are of interest to the researchers at Oklahoma State University, Stillwater by selecting View option.

Este trabalho compreende a modelagem hidrológica da bacia hidrográfica do rio Muriaé (BHRM). As simulações hidrológicas foram realizadas com o modelo hidrológico TOPMODEL com medições de precipitação de estimativa de vazão da rede telemétrica da Rede Hidrometeorológica Nacional (RHN). Utilizou-se também as respectivas estimativas de precipitação por satélite com o método CMORPH, e a análise de precipitação integrada entre a precipitação medida pela telemetria e a estimada por satélite por meio da análise objetiva estatística (ANOBES). A calibração e a validação do modelo TOPMODEL foram realizadas para eventos hidrológicos entre 2016 e 2018. A calibração do modelo TOPMODEL com as séries de dados de precipitação acima foi avaliada por meio do coeficiente de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), que variou entre 0,7 e 0,9. A validação do modelo TOPMODEL com séries independentes resultou em NSE de -0,8 a 0,3. Este resultado em grande parte se deve ao pequeno número de eventos hidrológicos desde o início das medições telemétricas na BHRM. O TOPMODEL também foi utilizado para simular vazões em séries com período anual entre 2009 e 2013. A calibração e validação com séries anuais resultaram em NSE ~ 0,6. Notadamente, as simulações com CMORPH tendem a subestimar as vazões, enquanto que com ANOBES o desempenho foi melhor, em especial para períodos de cheia. Portanto, os resultados sugerem a aplicabilidade do modelo TOPMODEL para simulações hidrológicas da Bacia do Rio Muriaé, com os melhores resultados obtidos quando a modelagem iniciou em um período de estiagem e o dado de precipitação representou a variabilidade espacial da chuva. / This study comprises the hydrological modeling of the Muriaé river basin. Hydrologic simulations were performed with the TOPMODEL hydrological model, with precipitation measurements and discharge estimation from the Brazilian Hydrometeorology Network (RHN). It was also used satellite precipitation estimates with the CMORPH method, and the integrated precipitation analysis between the precipitation measured by the telemetry and the estimated by satellite through objective statistical analysis (SOAS). The calibration and validation of the TOPMODEL model were performed for hydrological events between 2016 and 2018. The calibration of the TOPMODEL model with the above precipitation data series was evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), which ranged from 0,7 and 0,9. Validation of the TOPMODEL model with independent series resulted in NSE from -0,8 to 0,3. This result is largely due to the small number of hydrological events since the beginning of telemetry measurements at the Muriaé river basin. TOPMODEL was also used to simulate flows in series with annual period between 2009 and 2013. Calibration and validation with annual series resulted in NSE ~ 0.6. Notably, CMORPH simulations tend to underestimate flow rates, while with SOAS the performance was better, especially for flood periods. Therefore, the results suggest the applicability of the TOPMODEL model for hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river basin, with the best results obtained when the modeling started in a drought period and the rainfall data represented the spatial variability of the rainfall.

Climate models are common tools for developing design standards in the hydrologic field; however, these models contain uncertainties in multi-model and scenario selections. Along with these uncertainties, biases can be attached to the models. Such biases and uncertainties can present difficulties in predicting future extremes. These hydrologic extremes are believed to be non-stationary in character. Only in the recent past have model users come to terms that the current hydrologic designs are no longer relevant due to their assumption of stationarity. This study describes a systematic method of selecting a best fit model in relationship to location and time, along with the use of that best fit model for evaluation of future extremes. Rain gage stations throughout Florida are used to collect daily precipitation data used in extreme precipitation and quantitative indices. Through these indices conclusions are made on model selection and future extremes, as they relate to hydrologic designs. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2013.

A Bacia do Alto Tiete abriga cerca de 50% dos habitantes do Estado de São Paulo e é afetada freqüentemente por eventos de inundações. Uma das principais fontes de problemas é a alta impermeabilização devida à ocupação da superfície nas últimas décadas. Um dos seus tributários secundários, a bacia do Rio Pirajuçara se insere neste contexto e sofre com problemas da mesma natureza. A modelagem hidrológica permite uma análise do escoamento superficial nestes ambientes e é útil na previsão de vazões por meio de redes telemétricas e sensoriamento remoto. Entretanto, redes telemétricas apresentam problemas de representatividade espacial e exposição, radares meteorológicos, apesar da maior resolução espaço-temporal das estimativas de precipitação, possuem várias fontes de erros e incertezas. A principal delas se refere à relação ZR. Deste modo, a integração dessas medições e estimativas pode minimizar erros de ambas. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar aspectos hidrológicos da Bacia do Rio Pirajuçara por meio do modelo TOPMODEL com medições de vazão e precipitação disponíveis para 18 eventos monitorados entre outubro de 2008 a outubro de 2009. O modelo TOPMODEL foi calibrado com dez eventos e verificado com os demais. A calibração foi realizada com os dados da telemetria da Bacia do Alto Tietê, radar meteorológico de São Paulo e a combinação de ambos por meio da análise objetiva estatística. Os resultados da calibração indicam que o melhor desempenho foi obtido com radar meteorológico, com número de NASH de 0,51, menor erro quadrático médio e menor viés médio absoluto. A verificação também indicou o mesmo resultado com número de NASH de 0,69. As simulações indicam que apesar da utilização da precipitação média, o modelo TOPMODEL simulou adequadamente cerca de 75% das vazões de alerta. O trabalho evidencia as limitações da telemetria e seus impactos na integração com os dados do radar. / The Alto Tiete watershed is home for about 50% of the inhabitants of São Paulo State and is affected by recurrent flashfloods. One major source of difficulties is the high rate of soil impermeabilization caused by dense surface occupation in the last decades. One of its secondary tributaries, the Pirajussara watershed suffers with similar problems. Hydrological modeling allows the analysis of runoff and other variables in these basins. It also useful for streamflow forecast based on telemetric networks and remote sensing measurements. However, surface networks lack spatial representativity and exposure is a also a issue, weather radars, in spite of their much higher spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimation, are affect by several sources of errors and uncertainties; the most significant one being the ZR relationship. Thus, the integration of these measurements and estimates can minimize errors of both. The goal of the present work is to analyze the surface hydrology of the Pirajussara watershed based on the TOPMODEL, streamflow and rainfall measurements available for eighteen events between October 2008 and October 2009. The TOPMODEL was calibrated with ten events and verified with the remaining events. The calibration was performed with the Alto Tiete telemetric measurements of streamflow and rainfall only, the São Paulo weather radar (SPWR) only and a combination of both through the statistical analysis scheme. Calibration results show a better performance for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.51, least SME and mean bias. On the other hand, the verification also indicated better results for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.69. The simulations indicate that in spite of the use of the mean rainfall over the watershed, the TOPMODEL performed adequately for 75% of the streamflow alerts. It is also evident the limitation of the available network and its impacts on the integration to the SPWR rainfall data.

A carência, absoluta ou relativa, de água direcionou diversas ações no sentido de amenizar esse problema. A política nacional de recursos hídricos (Lei 9.433/97), com seus cinco instrumentos de gestão e planejamento, pode ser considerada o principal marco. Entre esses instrumentos, encontra-se o sistema de informações, que tem por finalidade coletar, armazenar e disponibilizar dados para uma gestão racional. É nesse âmbito e no sentido de contribuir para a evolução desses sistemas, que se apresenta essa tese de doutoramento. O tema principal trata da implementação de um sistema de suporte a decisões – SSD com base nos conceitos da programação orientada a objetos – POO, forma esta de programação que procura representar os sistemas por meio de classes de maneira a buscar a semelhança à realidade. Esse SSD, denominado de ARENA (análise de recursos naturais), é composto de um sistema de informações geográficas – SIG, dois simuladores (simulação do fluxo de águas subterrâneas e do ciclo hidrológico superficial), uma base de dados georeferenciada e módulos de acesso aos dados. A forma como os simuladores foram implementados, baseado em conceitos da POO e suas integrações às entidades geométricas do SIG, é apresentada como contribuição. No ARENA, o SIG não é apenas utilizado nas fases de pré e pós-processamento de dados para modelos, e sim no processo de simulação. Aplicações do ARENA a uma bacia hidrográfica (escoamento superficial) e a dois sistemas hipotéticos (escoamento subterrâneo) são apresentados ao final do trabalho. A maneira como esse SSD foi implementado induz ao desenvolvimento de simuladores adicionais sem realizar modificações nos pacotes já implementados neste trabalho, sendo facilitada a utilização dos pacotes que compõem esse SSD / The relative or complete lack of water has been directing various actions in order to solve this problem. The national water resources politic (Law 9.433/97) with its five instruments for water resources planning and management can be considered the main action. Among these instruments, it is found the information system that has as purpose to collect, store and turn it into available data to the rational management. In this scope and in order to give some contributions to the improvement of these systems, this Ph.D. thesis is presented. The main topic deals with the decision support system (DSS) implementation based on oriented object – OO, a kind of programming which tries to represent systems through classes very closely to the reality. This DSS, called ARENA (análise de recursos naturais, in Portuguese), is made up of a geographic information system (GIS), two models (a groundwater model and a distributed rainfall-runoff model), a georeferenced database and graphic user interfaces (GUI). The way the models were built, based on OO concepts and its integration to GIS geographic data, is presented as contribution. In the ARENA, the GIS is not only used in the pre and post processing steps, but also in the simulation. The ARENA applications were carried out for two examples, a watershed (surface water simulation) and a hypothetic system (groundwater simulation), both presented in the end of this study. The way this DSS was built induces to the development of other models without modifications in the existing packages, so that the development of new applications becomes easy because the use of existing packages that made this DSS up

Three major teleconnections, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), in warm and cool phases, effect precipitation in Florida. The effects of the oscillation phases on the precipitation characteristics are analyzed by using long-term daily precipitation data, on different temporal (annual, monthly, and daily) and spatial scales, utilizing numerous indices, and techniques. Long-term extreme precipitation data for 9 different durations is used to examine the effects of the oscillation phases on the rainfall extremes, by employing different parametric and non-parametric statistical tests, along with Depth-Duration- Frequency analysis. Results show that Florida will experience higher rainfall when AMO is in the warm phase, except in the panhandle and south Florida, while PDO cool phase is positively correlated with precipitation, except for the southern part of the peninsula. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2013.

A regionalização hidrológica é uma técnica que permite transferir informação entre bacias hidrográficas semelhantes, a fim de calcular em sítios que não dispõem de dados, as variáveis hidrológicas de interesse; assim, a mesma caracteriza-se por ser uma ferramenta útil na obtenção de outorga de direitos de uso de recursos hídricos, instrumento previsto na Lei 9433/97. Devido à desatualização do modelo atual de regionalização hidrológica do Estado de São Paulo, proposto na década de 80, este estudo tem como objetivo geral avaliar se o mesmo está adequado ao uso, de acordo com a atualização de seu banco de dados, e propor um novo que supere as limitações do antigo. O estudo foi realizado no Estado de São Paulo, que tem área de aproximadamente 248197 km², localizado entre as longitudes -44° 9\', e -53º 5\', e entre as latitudes -22° 40\', e -22° 39\'. Utilizou-se, inicialmente, dados de 176 estações fluviométricas administradas pelo DAEE e pela ANA, disponíveis em http://www.sigrh.sp.gov.br. Determinou-se para as estações, a precipitação média anual da bacia hidrográfica (P), a vazão média plurianual (Q), a vazão mínima média de 7 dias seguidos com período de retorno de 10 anos (Q7,10) e as vazões com 90 e 95% de permanência no tempo (Q90 e Q95). Posteriormente, fez-se análise de consistência excluindo as estações inconsistentes do estudo; assim, restaram 172 para serem utilizadas na avaliação do modelo e formulação de um novo. A avaliação do modelo fez-se pelo índice de confiança (c), que é definido pelo produto entre o coeficiente de correlação (r) e o índice de concordância (d), utilizando como valor de estimativa as vazões geradas pelo modelo, e como valor padrão as calculadas por intermédio das estações fluviométricas. Todas as vazões avaliadas foram classificadas como ótimas, com índice de confiança (c) acima de 0,85; assim, o atual modelo rejeitou a hipótese de que a atualização de seu banco de dados pudesse inferir em sua capacidade preditiva; portanto, o mesmo pode ser usado na obtenção das vazões estudadas que são referência na emissão de outorga em diferentes Estados do Brasil. Entretanto, o modelo apresentou algumas limitações, como extrapolação para áreas de bacias de drenagem menores do que as utilizadas para formulá-lo, e problemas em seu aplicativo computacional: o mesmo informa a precipitação média anual na coordenada geográfica do local de captação da água, e não da bacia de drenagem a montante do referido local. Neste enfoque, foi formulado um novo modelo, que superou as limitações e proporcionou capacidade preditiva maior que a do antigo. / A hydrological regionalization is a technique that allows to transfer information between similar watersheds in order to calculate, in sites where there are no data on the hydrological variables of interest. This technique becomes a useful tool to ensure the rights of water resources use, instrument provided by Law 9433/97. Due to the outdated hydrological regionalization model of São Paulo State, proposed in the 1980\'s, this study aims to broadly assess whether the current model is appropriate to use, according to an analysis of its update database and to propose a new model to overcome the limitations of the current one. The study was conducted in State São Paulo with area of approximately 248197 km ², located between longitudes -44 ° 9 \', and -53 ° 5\', and between latitudes 40 ° -22\' and -22 ° 39\'. We used data from 176 initially gauged stations administered by ANA and DAEE available at http://www.sigrh.sp.gov.br, where it was determined to the stations, the average annual rainfall of the basin (P) multiannual average streamflow (Q), streamflow minimum average of 7 consecutive days with a return period of 10 years (Q7,10) and streamflows with 90 and 95% of permanence in time(Q90 e Q95). Afterwards, we analyzed the consistency excluding the inconsistent stations from the study, thus, remaining 172 to be used in the model evaluation and development of a new model. The model evaluation was made by the confidence index (c), which is the product between the correlation coefficient (r) and the agreement index (d), using as estimate value the streamflows generated by the model and as the standard value, the streamflows calculated through the gauged stations. All streamflows evaluated were classified as optimal, with confidence index (c) above 0.85, therefore, the current model rejected the hypothesis that upgrading the database could infer its predictive ability, so, it can be used to obtain the streamflows studied that refer to use grants in different States of Brazil. However, the model had some limitations, such as extrapolation to areas of smaller watersheds than those used to formulate it, and computer application problems, being that, it reports the average annual precipitation at the geographic coordinate at the local catchment water, not the watershed upstream of that location. A new model was formulated that surpasses the limitations and provides greater predictive ability than the current one.

Orientador: Célia Regina Lopes Zimback / Banca: Sérgio Lazaro de Lima / Banca: Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz / Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi construir um banco de dados digital do meio físico e desenvolver uma metodologia para a definição das áreas hidrologicamente importantes no ciclo hidrológico em uma sub-bacia hidrográfica, visando à priorização destas áreas em planos de recuperação de áreas degradadas, compensações florestais ou uso sustentado por meio de práticas de manejo conservacionistas. A sub-bacia hidrográfica pesquisada, localizada no interior do estado de São Paulo, estende-se sobre o Reverso da Cuesta, atravessando o Front e com sua foz na Depressão Periférica, no Rio Tietê. A cobertura do solo predominante é a cana-de-açúcar - 38% (10423 ha). O levantamento de solos em nível semidetalhado identificou uma série de comportamentos expressos através de diferentes tipos de solos relacionados com declividade, proximidade ao Front da Cuesta, rede de drenagem ou mesmo à Depressão Periférica onde a rocha originária são os arenitos Botucatu e Pirambóia ou ao Reverso da Cuesta onde a rocha originária é o arenito Marília. O uso do Geoprocessamento permitiu equacionar um volume de informações em velocidade e precisão que a mente humana não seria capaz de processar em igual desempenho. A partir dos resultados da pesquisa, pôde-se concluir que: o desenvolvimento de um mapa semidetalhado de solos foi fundamental para a obtenção de informações sobre os comportamentos das diferentes unidades pedológicas da subbacia frente às respostas na sua interação com a água / Abstract: The objective of the Project was build a digital data base of the physical environment and develop a methodology to the definition of sensible areas for the hydrological process on a watershed, allocation these areas for environmental restoration planning, forestry practices and sustainable use by conservations practices of the management. The watershed is located at the country of Sao Paulo State and spread out above the Reverse of the Cuesta, crossing the Front reaching your river mouth in the Periferic Depression, at Tietê River. The predominant land cover is sugar cane - 38% (10423 ha). The soil survey at the semidetailed level has been identified a number os behaviors expressed by the different kinds of soil and their relationships with slope, proximity of the Front, water drainage and even Periferic Depression where the original rock is Botucatu sandstone, and in the Reverse is the Marília sandstone. The Geoprocessing approach allowed to equate an amount of geoinformations with a high speed and precision that would be impossible by the human mind in equal performance. In according with the results of the research, could be conclude that: the developing of the semidetailed soil map was fundamental for the informations about the behaviors of the soil units in their interactions with water / Mestre

Predicting how increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will affect the hydrologic cycle is of utmost importance for water resource management, ecological systems and for human life and activities. A typical perspective is that the water cycle will mostly be altered by atmospheric effects of climate change, precipitation and radiation, and that the land surface will adjust accordingly. Terrestrial processes can however feedback significantly on the hydrologic changes themselves. Vegetation is indeed at the center of the carbon, water and energy nexus. This work investigates the processes, the timing and the geography of these feedbacks. Using Earth System Models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and atmospheric (radiative) responses to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, we first evaluate the individual contribution of precipitation, radiation and physiological forcings for several key hydrological variables. Over the largest fraction of the globe the physiological response indeed not only impacts, but also dominates the change in the continental hydrologic cycle compared to either radiative or precipitation changes due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. It is however complicated to draw any conclusion for the soil moisture as it exhibits a particularly nonlinear response. The physiological feedbacks are especially important for extreme temperature events. The 2003 European heat wave is an interesting and crucial case study, as extreme heat waves are anticipated to become more frequent and more severe with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The soil moisture and land-atmosphere feedbacks were responsible for the severity of this episode unique for this region. Instead of focusing on statistical change, we use the framework of Regional Climate Modeling to simulate this specific event under higher levels of surface atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and to assess how this heat wave could be altered by land-atmosphere interactions in the future. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the heat wave impact. Land-atmosphere interactions and carbon dioxide fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration if rainfall does not change. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise during extreme heat periods. This soil moisture feedback, which is mediated and enabled by the vegetation on a seasonal scale is a European example of the impacts the vegetation could have in an atmosphere enriched in carbon dioxide. We again use Earth System Models to systematically and statistically investigate the influence of the vegetation feedbacks on the global and regional changes of extreme temperatures. Physiological effects typically contribute to the increase of the annual daily maximum temperature with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, accounting for around 15% of the full trend by the end of the XXIth Century. Except in Northern latitudes, the annual daily maximum temperature increases at a faster pace than the mean temperature, which is reinforced by vegetation feedbacks in Europe but reduced in North America. This work highlights the key role of vegetation in influencing future terrestrial hydrologic responses. Accurate representation of the response to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels, and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles are therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climates in various regions of the globe.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-09-30T14:13:18Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Seibt, Ana Carolina-2013-dissertação.pdf: 5037341 bytes, checksum: 38a12e79b86bc07ba01840f886afd010 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-09-30T15:27:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Seibt, Ana Carolina-2013-dissertação.pdf: 5037341 bytes, checksum: 38a12e79b86bc07ba01840f886afd010 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-30T15:27:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Seibt, Ana Carolina-2013-dissertação.pdf: 5037341 bytes, checksum: 38a12e79b86bc07ba01840f886afd010 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-29 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The numerous problems arising from the increased amount of impermeable areas and drainage system of rainwater lagged consist of a hard challenge for public administrations. The hydrological modeling appears as a strong support engineering, however, is subject to a distinct set of constraints rarely explicitly considered by analysis of uncertainty to the results. The present study aims to highlight the role of hydrological modeling through a model transformation process for rainfall-runoff watershed stream Botafogo (Goiania - GO), called UFGModel1.0 and ascertain the uncertainty analysis applied in simulation flows. To achieve the goal, after exposure of the problem, we propose a methodology for uncertainty analysis using the Monte Carlo method, based on the method of estimation uncertainty GLUE. We stress the importance given in consideration of the precipitation fields, and the effect of simplifying the response of a model of a precipitation-runoff. The results demonstrate that multiple sets of parameters were considered excellent high efficiency enabling a model for events intense precipitation. Parameters studied concluded that the sealed area holds great sensitivity, significantly altering the design flow. / Os inúmeros problemas advindos do aumento da quantidade das áreas impermeabilizadas e do sistema de drenagem das águas pluviais defasado consistem em um árduo desafio para as gestões públicas. A modelagem hidrológica aparece como um forte suporte da engenharia, porém, está sujeita a um conjunto de restrições distintas, raramente consideradas explicitamente através da análise de incerteza associada aos resultados obtidos. O presente trabalho propõe-se a ressaltar o papel desempenhado pela modelagem hidrológica através de um modelo de transformação do processo precipitação-vazão para bacia hidrográfica do córrego Botafogo (Goiânia – GO), denominado de UFGModel1.0 e averiguar a análise de incerteza aplicada na simulação de vazões. Para o cumprimento do objetivo, após a exposição do problema, propõe-se uma metodologia de análise da incerteza através do método de Monte Carlo, baseada no método de estimação de incerteza GLUE. Ressalta-se a importância dada em consideração aos campos de precipitação, e ao efeito de sua simplificação na resposta de um modelo do tipo precipitação-vazão. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que vários conjuntos de parâmetros foram considerados ótimos possibilitando uma alta eficiência do modelo para eventos intensos de precipitação. O modelo apresentou maior sensibilidade ao parâmetro de área impermeabilizada e Manning do plano.